Welcome to the True Value Olympics!
One of the many things that separate BRoto Fantasy from the crowd is our attention to exclusive and advanced analytics. We aim to provide managers with actionable data directly relating to fantasy football. The goal is to empower the common player by giving every single tool you need to become your own fantasy football expert.
The True Value Olympics will look back on the positional leaders in BRoto Fantasy’s advanced statistics, True Throw Value and True Player Grade, and advanced statistic DAKOTA, and award medals and points based on the standings of each event.
1st Place = Gold Medal (5 Points)
2nd Place = Silver Medal (4 Points)
3rd Place = Bronze Medal (3 Points)
4th Place = No Podium (2 Points)
5th Place = No Podium (1 Points)
The True Value Podium Finalists will determine once and for all who deserves the crown of 2021’s True Value King.
First off, the quarterbacks!
*A minimum of 300 pass attempts were required to qualify for the True Value Olympics*
TRUE THROW VALUE
Explanation
A BRoto Fantasy exclusive stat, True Throw Value strips outside factors and minimizes randomness by looking at a quarterback's total volume and production to find their efficiency on a micro-level. Managers can essentially understand this exclusive metric as Adjusted Fantasy Points Per Attempt.
1st Place: Matthew Stafford (5 Points)
True Throw Value = 0.645
2nd Place: Joe Burrow (4 Points)
True Throw Value = 0.614
3rd Place: Aaron Rodgers (3 Points)
True Throw Value = 0.595
4th Place: Russell Wilson (2 Points)
True Throw Value = 0.594
5th Place: Kirk Cousins (1 Points)
True Throw Value = 0.583
Event Recap
Matthew Stafford led the pack with the assistance of a record-breaking season from Cooper Kupp. The Super Bowl-winning duo connected for 145 receptions, 1947 yards, and 16 touchdowns. Stafford would finish the season with a career-high 41 passing touchdowns, completing 67.2% of his passes. Stafford's incredible efficiency in 2021 gives him an early lead in this year’s True Value Olympics.
Joe Burrow’s tremendous accuracy on relatively low-volume (520 Pass Attempts) buoyed him into a second-place finish in our first event. His connection with former LSU teammate and generational receiving talent Ja’Marr Chase was apparent as the duo torched NFL Defenses. The Bengals breakout quarterback led the league in completion percentage at 70.4%. Burrow’s promising second season and remarkable True Throw Value rating of 0.614 is encouraging for managers investing in the young star’s third season.
The media chastised Aaron Rodgers as a leader throughout the 2021 season, but he refused to be affected by any shots. Rodgers reigned supreme as the NFL’s 2021 MVP, winning his second in as many seasons. However, Rodgers fell just short of topping the True Value charts. The future hall of Famer maintained a consistent floor of elite production with incredible ball control, throwing just four interceptions to 37 touchdowns.
“Mr. Unlimited” was “Mr. Efficient” in 2021. Russell Wilson was amongst the most accurate and precise quarterbacks in the league last season despite a severe mallet finger injury to his throwing hand. Wilson missed three games with the injury but was able to bounce back strong, finishing the season with 25 touchdowns, 3113 passing yards and 17.8 PPG (QB 13).
Rounding out our list is the egregiously underrated Kirk Cousins. The Vikings were severely limited as an offense due to the methodical and slow-paced play calling of former head coach Mike Zimmer. Cousins remained effective, completing 66.3% of his passes with a touchdown to interception ratio of 33:7. The Vikings signal-caller ranked 12th at the position with 19.2 PPG.
DAKOTA
Explanation
Expected Points Added + Completion Percentage Above Expected. DAKOTA is a composite stat that offers a good measure of a quarterback’s future efficiency.
1st Place: Aaron Rodgers (5 Points)
DAKOTA = 0.174
2nd Place: Patrick Mahomes (4 Points)
DAKOTA = 0.153
3rd Place: Joe Burrow (3 Points)
DAKOTA = 0.151
4th Place: Tom Brady (2 Points)
DAKOTA = 0.144
5th Place: Jimmy Garoppolo (1 Points)
DAKOTA = 0.144
Event Recap
Our 2021 NFL MVP takes his first top-ranked finish at the True Value Olympics. Rodgers Expected Points Added (EPA) ranked 3rd at 182.7. Rodgers is surgical in his execution, limiting turnovers and maximizing every opportunity. With back-to-back MVPs at 37 and 38 years old, the Packers' long-time field general is finding ways to refine his games to new heights. The loss of Adams in 2022 will indeed limit some of Rodgers’ production, but his efficiency will remain at a pinnacle that few can match.
Patrick Mahomes makes his first appearance in the top-5 with a DAKOTA rating of 0.153. The supercharged gunslinger recorded an EPA of 198.8, ranked first in the NFL in 2021. Although Mahomes is without Tyreek Hill, managers should not question his ceiling as an elite fantasy asset.
Stunning second-year star Joe Burrow makes his second podium appearance, further solidifying himself as a master of efficiency. Burrow fell just below Mahomes with an EPA of 190.1 but far surpassed the Chiefs quarterback in accuracy ratings. Burrow’s True Completion Percentage ranked 2nd in 2021 with an absurd 74.8% rating. Managers can invest in Burrow with confidence to continue to produce at a high level in a low-volume passing offense.
Tom Brady led the NFL in touchdowns and passing yards in 2021, doing so at the young age of 44. The seven-time Super Bowl champion recorded a career-high 5316 yards with an EPA of 170.2 (5th). Brady finished the season as the QB3 in points per game, averaging 22.7 PPG. You can trust the GOAT to continue his destruction of NFL defenses until the day he decides to roam the pastures of retirement.
Jimmy Garoppolo surprisingly tied Brady’s DAKOTA at 0.144 but did so with 278 fewer passing attempts, giving the edge to the Buccaneers' captain. Garoppolo played into the strengths of his receivers' ability to take short-yardage completions to the house after the catch. The 49ers quarterback averaged 8.6 yards per attempt (2nd) with a True Completion Percentage of 74.7% (3rd). Garoppolo may be without a starting job to begin the 2022 season, but he has proven to be a safe game-manager in Kyle Shanahan’s infinitely complex offensive scheme.
TRUE PLAYER GRADE
Explanation
True Player Grade is a BRoto Fantasy exclusive composite score based on current year production that evaluates past performance and tries to predict future production. All players with 5+ games and 6+ PPG in a given season between 2000 and 2021 are placed on a 0-100 scale.
1st Place: Justin Herbert (5 Points)
True Player Grade = 99.3 (A+)
2nd Place: Josh Allen (4 Points)
True Player Grade = 99.1 (A+)
3rd Place: Patrick Mahomes (3 Points)
True Player Grade = 98.7 (A+)
4th Place: Joe Burrow (2 Points)
True Player Grade = 96.4 (A+)
5th Place: Dak Prescott (1 Points)
True Player Grade = 92.4 (A)
Event Recap
Justin Herbert finally cracks the top-5 of the quarterback True Value Olympics, topping the league with a 99.3 True Player Grade. The second-year signal-caller recorded 38 passing touchdowns with 5014 yards, completing 65.9% of his passes. The Chargers star is improving rapidly and will continue to be a game-changing fantasy asset for years.
The Overall QB1 of 2021 fell just short of the top-ranked player in this event. Josh Allen recorded his second consecutive season as the top-scoring quarterback in fantasy football. However, his profile as a top scorer is reliant on a high rate of rushing touchdowns, an unpredictable and volatile metric. Allen’s ceiling as a top-five fantasy quarterback is undeniable, but he will need to maintain his incredible rushing volume to repeat as number one for a third season.
A slow start to the 2021 season drastically affected Mahomes’ overall finish. Nevertheless, a top-5 finish with 22.0 PPG solidifies the Chiefs quarterback as a locked-in option as a QB1 this season.
Burrow’s passing metrics were pure as the driven snow as he finished with a True Player Grade of 96.4 to reflect a near-perfect season. The Bengals' offense is stacked with young, elite talent. Burrow will look to improve in his third season and reach an even higher plateau of production.
Comeback Player of the Year Dak Prescott made his way back to the field after a devastating ankle injury derailed a historic start to the 2020 season. Prescott averaged 20.7 PPG, throwing for 4449 yards and 37 touchdowns in 2021. The Cowboys struggled to find consistency last season amidst injuries and upset losses. Prescott is still in his prime at 28 years old and aims to return to his MVP-caliber form in 2022.
TRUE VALUE PODIUM FINALISTS
Bronze Medal
Matthew Stafford - 5 Points
Justin Herbert - 5 Points
Silver Medal
Aaron Rodgers - 7 Points
Patrick Mahomes - 7 Points
And the winner of the inaugural quarterback True Value Olympics, claiming the rightful crown of BRoto Fantasy’s True Value King…
Gold Medal
Joe Burrow - 9 Points
News Break
The only quarterback to place in every event of the True Value Olympics. Burrow made full use of his superstar weapons in 2021, upholding career-best seasons for every member of the Bengals offense. He enters 2022 with an excellent chance to meet the sky-high expectations set in front of him.
Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at BRoto Fantasy Football.
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By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.