Welcome to the BRoto “Everything You Need to Know About” Series. Throughout the offseason, we will deep-dive into players for the 2022 NFL season and examine the good, the bad, and everything in between.
SUBJECT: Trey Lance, QB, San Francisco 49ers
Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images
THE GOOD:
Trey Lance did not play much in his rookie season, however, he showed the fantasy football community plenty in the time he did get on the field. The 6’4”, 225 lb, Lance used his size well and showed his athletic ability in the minimal snaps he received. Rushing quarterbacks are a cheat code for fantasy football and Lance fits that bill. He managed a QB13 overall finish in one half in an injury shortened game for starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo, then ran for 89 yards as the starting QB the following week. While his throwing ability certainly needs work, Lance was actually efficient for fantasy football purposes in a limited sample. Lance finished 3rd in the NFL in BRoto exclusive stat True Throw Value (0.61), yards per attempt (8.5) and average depth of target (9.27). That is pretty impressive. This shows us that, even as a raw rookie, Lance was producing some high value targets. If he can improve as a passer, increase efficiency in his sophomore season, and use those cheat code legs, Lance could be a big time fantasy producer.
THE BAD:
Trey Lance is a very inexperienced QB and will need to quickly adjust to being the full-time starter for the 49ers in 2022. Remember that Lance played in only one game his junior season at North Dakota State before being selected by the 49ers in the 2021 draft. He then started two full games and played one other half of a game after a Jimmy Garoppolo injury. This means that Lance has played roughly 10 quarters of NFL Football and two halves of collegiate football over the past two seasons, only. Lance was very raw during his action in 2021, highlighted by his 42nd ranked 57.7% completion percentage. He also had a deep ball completion percentage of 38.5%, in the bottom half of the league. He also produced an uninspiring catchable pass rate of 69% (nice), ranking 40th in the NFL. While all of these numbers are in limited samples and should likely be taken with a grain of salt, Lance proved that he still has a long way to go in terms of being an NFL caliber thrower.
SUPPORTING CAST:
There are two main concerns hovering around Trey Lance. Firstly, Jimmy Garoppolo is still on the roster. While it is expected that Jimmy G gets traded, it has not happened yet, and there are no guarantees. If Jimmy G opens the season on the Niners that could be an issue for Lance as it will likely provide a much shorter leash. Secondly, the Deebo Samuel contract. Deebo Samuel is a huge part of the 49ers offensive game plan and there are still rumors of him wanting to be traded or extended. Neither have happened yet. Lance will be missing a massive piece of the puzzle if superstar Deebo ends up playing somewhere else. At the moment though, Deebo is still on the Niners, and he will be a tremendous weapon for Lance.
The other members of the supporting cast also stand out. George Kittle is one of the best tight ends in the NFL, when healthy, and is a yards after the catch monster. Brandon Aiyuk is an excellent wide receiver who got better throughout his sophomore season and can make a big impact opposite of Deebo Samuel. Furthermore, the 49ers currently have the 14th ranked offensive line according to PFF, highlighted by the fantastic tackle combination of Trent Williams and Mike McGlinchey, who should keep Lance protected. The Niners are providing Lance with a litany of weapons as he opens his first season as their franchise QB.
OFFENSIVE OUTLOOK:
The San Francisco 49ers lost their Offensive Coordinator, Mike McDaniel, this offseason as he signed on to be the newest Head Coach of the Miami Dolphins. While this could have some impact on the Niners offense, offensive guru Kyle Shanahan remains the head coach, so a similar offense is to be expected. The 49ers are also not naming a new offensive coordinator for this season as Kyle Shanahan will resume play calling duties and develop the offense. Shanahan has proven to be a great play caller and offensive mind, so he should certainly find creative ways to get Lance comfortable through the air and on the ground.
ADP REVIEW:
Trey Lance is currently being selected in the late 9th round of sleeper redraft leagues, early 8th round of sleeper dynasty leagues, early 4th round of sleeper superflex redraft leagues and early 3rd round of sleeper superflex dynasty leagues.
I am a big proponent of waiting to select QBs in my redraft fantasy leagues. Successful late round quarterbacks can help propel a team to the championship. Trey Lance is the late round QB to pick this year. He has the ability to explode as a fantasy asset and can always be paired with a safer QB later in the draft or on waivers later in the season if he does not live up to the potential.
The Fantasy Football by BRoto app is now live on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store! Download it today for a start sit tool, player cards, statistics, usage, rankings, interactive tools, coaching tendencies, and much, much more. FREE for a limited time.
By Gianluca Martini
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.