SLEEPERS
QB: Brock Purdy (SF)
The 49ers and head coach Kyle Shanahan have somehow turned Brock Purdy, a.k.a. Mr. Irrelevant, into a playoff-bound rookie quarterback as the only member of the 2022 draft class to have secured a bid to the postseason.
The final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft has been afforded the gift of operating in the most quarterback-friendly offensive system the NFL has ever seen. Shanahan could place a part-time grocery store clerk under center for the 49ers and draw up a game plan that allows the schmuck to sleepwalk his way to 220 yards and two touchdowns. Purdy has done just that, throwing for two touchdowns in four consecutive starts with minimal effort. Throwing to the likes of Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk has certainly helped as all four players rank in the top 10 in YAC/REC.
Ball security has kept the rookie quarterback flirting with QB1 territory as he has coughed up just two interceptions to eight touchdowns with a red-hot completion percentage of 69.4% in his four starts. Purdy is averaging 17.6 PPG in his four games as the 49ers leading man and now faces off against a Raiders defense that concedes 18.1 PPG (32.3% POA) of passing production alone to opposing quarterbacks. The Raiders give up 244.3 (27th) passing yards and 23.3 points per game (27th) to opposing offenses, both ranked in the bottom five of the NFL. The seventh-round rookie quarterback could very well sneak his way into the top 12 scorers at the position this week.
Matt Ward
RB: Brian Robinson (WAS)
The home team Commanders (7-7-1) are 2.5-point favorites against the visiting Browns (6-9) with a projected Over/Under scoring total of 40.5 points, suggesting a low-scoring grind between two run-heavy offenses.
For better or for worse, Brian Robinson has been the undeniable leader of the Commanders' rushing attack, far surpassing Antonio Gibson as the team’s workhorse. The committee with Gibson will turn into a solo show in Week 17 as the Commanders change-of-pace option is dealing with a lower leg injury, and has been ruled out against the Browns.
Furthermore, Robinson should be considered a must-start option based on his recent uptick in volume and upcoming defensive matchup.
The Browns allow 134.3 rushing yards per game (25th), ranked 2nd in True Matchup Rank with a Points Over Average of 32.6% to running backs. Robinson’s opponents are much better at stifling pass-catching running backs, allowing 6.8 PPG of receiving production (-17.4% POA). Luckily, the Browns are absolutely horrendous at stopping pure runners, giving up 20.1 PPG of rushing production (60.4% POA) to running backs, ranked first amongst all defenses in True Matchup Rank.
Robinson’s volume has been trending linearly over the last three games, earning greater than 70.0% of the team’s rushing attempts in each contest. The Commanders' rookie has a guaranteed path to workhorse volume against a scintillating defensive matchup, making him a top-tier sleeper for the championship week.
Matt Ward
WR: Marquise Brown (ARI)
We have officially hit the final week of the fantasy season and it is hard to believe the championship round is already here. What a rollercoaster of a year it has been. With all the ups and downs, very few things have been consistent this year as starting quarterbacks have been benched at a rapid pace and our most reliable fantasy studs have disappeared in big matchups. One consistent variable of the season though, has been Marquise Brown’s high end target share. Despite missing five games this season after an unfortunate foot injury, Hollywood still has nearly 100 targets through ten games played. He is being targeted nine times per game on average and even with the return of DeAndre Hopkins, he is still boasting 8 plus targets per game. He is an elite and consistent target earner, which is a great way to find future fantasy production for your teams.
Hollywood lines up to play the weak Atlanta Falcons secondary this week, a unit that allows the 5th most points per game to opposing wide receivers. The Falcons are allowing 22% Points Over Average to opposing wide receivers which comfortably makes them the 2nd best True Matchup for the position.
Despite having a backup quarterback for the week in David Blough, an incredibly juicy matchup has me leaning into Hollywood Brown in tight start/sit decisions. The risk is clearly there with a backup throwing to him but we all know he has that ability to break out a long play at a moment’s notice. I want that kind of upside in my lineup as I fight for a championship.
Boyd Armstrong
TE: Tyler Conklin (NYJ)
Jets fans, rejoice! Mike White has been cleared by doctors and will start this week against the Seattle Seahawks. This is the best TE matchup in the entire league in True Matchup Rank and it could not come at a better time.
Tyler Conklin hasn’t been able to take advantage of many juicy matchups this season but this week could be different.
Here is how Conklin has fared in his best matchups:
Week 5: The Jets blew out the Dolphins (3rd best matchup) and didn’t need to throw.
Week 10: Conklin caught 6 of 10 targets for 79 yards and 2 TDs against the Patriots (10th).
Week 11: Zach Wilson couldn’t get anything going against the Patriots (10th), only completing 9 of 22 passes for 77 yards.
Week 13: Conklin was targeted 7 times against the Vikings (8th) but only caught 2 for 9 yards. Per Pro Football Reference, Mike White had a 21.8% bad throw rate and only 67.3% of his 57 pass attempts were on-target.
Week 15: C.J. Uzomah was the benefactor at TE, catching both of his targets against the Lions (4th) for 41 yards and 2 TDs but did not play more than usual.
Conklin’s 14.1% target share is 2nd on the Jets. Despite big target numbers for a TE, he is only averaging the 21st most half-PPR PPG, so he is clearly a risky player who you would only start in the best situation. Conklin is only rostered in 28% of Yahoo leagues so he is widely available. The low point total is troubling but there aren’t better options at this rostership rate. Conklin has a chance to make some noise championship week.
Themi Michalakis
BUSTS
QB: Geno Smith (SEA)
AP
Geno Smith revived a forgotten career as an NFL castaway against all odds this season. The 9-year veteran is averaging 18.8 PPG (QB8) as one of the NFL’s top producers in fantasy. Unfortunately, those numbers have regressed recently as Smith has had two consecutive outings below his season averages, posting 15.3 (QB15) and 13.8 (QB18) points in those games. Managers hoping for a bounce-back performance in the final week of the fantasy playoffs will be sorely disappointed when analyzing the upcoming matchup.
The Seahawks (7-8) play host to the Jets (7-8) in a cross-conference clash between two teams desperate for the final Wild Card seed in the playoffs. Betting lines surprisingly favor the visiting Jets by 2.0 points as Mike White returns to take down a Seahawks team that is riding a three-game losing streak.
For all of their inconsistencies and issues on offense, the Jets defense has stood tall as one of the top units in the league in all facets. The Jets allow 326.6 scrimmage yards (2nd) and 18.8 points (4th) to their opponents, giving up 195.5 passing yards (5th) and 113.9 rushing yards (11th) on average. They rank 27th in True Matchup Rank with a negative Points Over Average rating of -12.3%, allowing 11.7 PPG of passing production (-20.3% POA) and 5.0 PPG of rushing production (-0.3% POA) to the quarterback position.
Geno Smith is trending on the wrong side of a horrendous matchup and would best suit managers on the bench as opposed to in their lineups.
Matt Ward
RB: Josh Jacobs (LV)
The Raiders (6-9) play host to the visiting 49ers (11-4) in a rare cross-conference matchup between AFC/NFC West teams. Betting lines favor the road team by 9.5 points as the hometown Raiders have seemingly laid their season to rest, admitting defeat by benching Derek Carr for journeyman backup Jarett Stidham in the final two games. Stidham has just 61 career pass attempts with zero starts in his professional career. There is no member of the Raiders offense that is safe with Stidham under center against the NFL’s best defense.
The 49ers allow 75.0 rushing yards per game to their opponents, ranked dead last amongst all NFL teams. They concede a mere 8.8 PPG of rushing production (-37.2% POA) and 6.2 PPG of receiving production (-9.7 POA) to rival running backs. Combined, the 49ers give up 15.0 PPG to the position with a negative Points Over Average rating of -30.4%, ranked 32nd, solidifying them as the NFL’s most fearsome unit.
The outlook for Jacobs and the Raiders offense is bleak with little more to play for than pride. It would not be out of the realm of possibilities to see Jacobs benched early in the contest in favor of the Raiders' younger players. The combination of wild unknowns in a lost season with a Stidham-led offense against the NFL’s best defense places Jacobs’ Week 17 projections in a disappointing range of outcomes.
Matt Ward
WR: Adam Thielen (MIN)
Adam Thielen is the anti-thesis of Marquise Brown. He does not command an elite target share, he isn’t nearly as explosive on the field, and he doesn’t have a cool nickname.
When Thielen doesn’t end up in the endzone he almost guaranteed to disappoint, and he has not found the endzone nearly as often as previous seasons in 2022. In the the two seasons prior, Thielen had 10+ touchdowns in each year and looked to be unstoppable in the endzone. In 2022, Thielen has hit pay dirt just five times and has not been a reliable option.
Thielen has the upside to fall into the endzone on any given week but he has only scored in exploitable matchups this season. This week, he matches up against the tough Green Bay Packers, who have been playing high quality defense against opposing wide receivers and are allowing -12% Points Over Average to the position. That makes them the 6th worst matchup for wide receivers in True Matchup Rank and is a defense to avoid for TD dependent players. Adam Thielen should be left on the bench for your championship matchup.
Boyd Armstrong
TE: David Njoku (CLE)
David Njoku is the half-PPR TE10 in PPG but he has seen mixed results since returning from injury. In his first game back (and QB Deshaun Watson’s second game back from his suspension), Njoku caught 7 of 9 targets for 59 yards and a TD. He finished as the TE3 that week, his 2nd best finish of the season. Following that, he has not even finished as a TE2. Granted, bad weather conditions have hurt the Browns offense, but this matchup does not bode well for a rebound performance.
The Commanders are the 9th most difficult TE matchup in true matchup rank. Their passing defense ranks 16th in DVOA.
The Browns do not have anything to play for while the Commanders are still trying to secure a spot in the playoffs. Washington has been susceptible to big WRs games, ranking as the 8th best matchup for WRs in True Matchup Rank, so Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones could be the beneficiaries in the passing game.
Unsurprisingly, Njoku gets significantly more targets when the Browns are trailing but it goes beyond that. The Browns run the ball 62.9% of the time when leading and 49.8% of the time when tied, 5th and 8th in the league, respectively. Even when they are trailing, the Browns are still running the ball 38.9% of the time, which ranks 13th. The sharps aren’t willing to take the Commanders to win by more than a field goal at the moment, which bodes well for a generally tight game or even a Cleveland lead at some point. Washington has no shortage of weapons but their offense is 28th in DVOA and they still have not committed to a single QB this season. They may test their luck on the ground, where Cleveland is weakest.
This game will feature few scoring opportunities and two teams grinding it out on the ground. Njoku has a nice floor and is always in play for a TD as the team’s red zone target leader but his upside is capped this week. The WRs are going to feast on these CBs and outside of an elite George Kittle blowup, the Commanders have stayed strong against TEs.
Themi Michalakis
The Fantasy Football by Broto app is now live on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store! Download it today for a start/sit tool, player cards, exclusive statistics, usage, rankings, interactive tools, coaching tendencies, and much, much more!
Check out patreon.com/Brotofantasy to access extra episodes, join our community, win prizes, and help keep the app free.
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.