Welcome to the regular season finale of Clay’s DFS Plays! The Week 17 slate has arrived so let’s win big on the last regular season slate of the year! Before I begin, I’d just like to take a moment to thank all of you that have read, shared or liked my articles this season. You are greatly appreciated. Now let’s get this Week 17 #printfest party started!
Week 17 Draftkings slate
Games to target:
1. CHI @ DET - 52.5 O/U
Implied totals: CHI 23.5; DET 29
2. JAX @ HOU - 43.5 O/U
Implied totals: JAX 24; HOU 19.5
3. SF @ LV - 44.5 O/U
Implied totals: SF 25.25; LV 19.25
4. MIN @ GB – 47.5 O/U
Implied totals: MIN 22.25; GB 25.25
Top Cash Plays:
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff ($5,600)
Jared Goff is having a December to remember. Outside of the very tough NY Jets defense, Goff has produced 24+ points in three of his last four outings. Goff smashed last week in an outdoor away game against Carolina in sub-30 degree temperatures. I am riding the hot hand of Goff in cash for a cheap play this week. I also like Goff in GPPs this week.
Trevor Lawrence ($6,200)
Its cheap QB week! Lawrence seems to be peaking after hitting a valley in the middle of the season. In his last 5 games, Lawrence has 3 games of 28+ fantasy points. In those 3 games, Lawrence chucked the rock for 300+ passing yards and 3+ passing TDs and rushed for 2 TDs as well. He even put 19.3 points last week against the vaunted NY Jets defense. With all the expensive skill position players this week, Lawrence is a no-brainer in cash.
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey ($9,000)
CMC had an absolute stinker last week, however, if you have the free Broto fantasy app you would see that the Washington Commanders ranked as the 27th True Matchup Rank for RBs (Throughout this article I’ll refer to True Matchup or True Matchup Rank, this is a Broto Exclusive Stat that adjusts for how defenses perform against specific players, rather than overall points allowed). In Week 17, CMC gets to face the Las Vegas Raiders, who just happen to be the #1 True Matchup for RBs overall and for receiving RBs. In McCaffrey’s last four games, he has scored 28+ PPR points in 3 of them. Expect a potential slate-breaking score from CMC this week. CMC also makes a fantastic GPP play.
Saquon Barkley ($8,000)
Barkley has been a workhorse the past two weeks, accumulating a monstrous 32 rush attempts and 18 targets. The Giants get the Indianapolis Colts this week, who rank as the 7th best matchup in True Matchup Rank for RBs. The Giants are likely playoff bound and winning this week will require Barkley to be heavily involved.
James Conner ($7,200)
If you want to save a little salary, then James Conner makes for a nice play. Conner is getting plenty of work with 14 or more rushes in his last 5 games and five or more targets in 4 of his last 5 games. This week, Conner gets to tee off against the Atlanta Falcons, who are fresh off of allowing the Baltimore Ravens to run for 184 yards without QB Lamar Jackson. The Falcons slot in 9th in True Matchup Rank for RBs.
Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson ($9,500)
Justin Jefferson is on another level right now. He has gone for 100+ receiving yards in 4 of his last 5 games and has scored four TDs in that span. In each of his last 3 games Jefferson has accumulated 15 or more targets, leading to a target share north of 29%. Find a way to fit Jefferson in your cash lineup.
Jerry Jeudy ($6,400)
A little over two weeks ago, Jerry Jeudy went bonkers against the Chiefs defense totaling 8 receptions for 73 yards and 3 TDs. Jerry Jeudy also commanded ten targets for the 2nd time this season last week. In what could be a pass heavy attack for Denver, Jeudy should be able to pay off at his salary.
Jahan Dotson ($4,600)
Over his last 3 games played, Dotson has totaled 24 targets, 15 receptions, 235 receiving yards and 3 receiving TDs. Although Cleveland ranks 18th in True Matchup Rank to WRs, I’m still jamming Dotson in cash this week, as his salary does not match his recent production.
Tight End
George Kittle ($5,900)
The only player hotter than George Kittle right now is Justin Jefferson. Kittle has quickly become the apple of QB Brock Purdy’s eye. Over his last two games, Kittle has accumulated 10 receptions for 213 yards and 4 TDs. With Deebo likely out for another week, it should be smooth sailing for Kittle in Week 17.
Evan Engram ($4,400)
Evan Engram has broken out as a must start TE over the last three weeks totaling 42.2, 14.2 and 21.3 fantasy points, respectively. At this cost, he makes a ton of sense.
D/ST
San Francisco 49ers ($2,900)
The 49ers defense gets a $1,000 salary reduction from last week despite a better matchup now with QB Jarrett Stidham starting for the Raiders. Jam the 49ers defense in cash.
Favorite stacks:
1. Patrick Mahomes + Travis Kelce + Jerrick McKinnon with Jerry Jeudy bring back.
2. Kirk Cousins + Justin Jefferson with AJ Dillon/Christian Watson/Allen Lazard bring back.
3. Trevor Lawrence + Christian Kirk/Zay Jones + Evan Engram no bring back.
4. Brock Purdy + Christian McCaffrey + George Kittle with Hunter Renfrow bring back.
5. Jared Goff + Amon-Ra St. Brown + DJ Chark with Cole Kmet bring back.
GPP Plays:
QB Trevor Lawrence ($6,200), Jared Goff ($5,600)
See cash section.
RB Tyler Allgeier ($5,300)
Allgeier has 35 carries over his past two games and gets the 3rd True Matchup Rank for RBs in the Arizona Cardinals. Allgeier could really pop in GPPs this week while saving you valuable salary.
RB- Kenneth Walker ($6,200)
The New York Jets defense has been excellent this season but it can be beat by running backs. The Jets allowed 134 rushing yards to the combo of RB Travis Etienne and QB Trevor Lawrence last week. In Week 15, they let the Detroit trio of running backs accrue 101 rushing yards. Although the Jets are 16th in True Matchup Rank to RBs, I definitely want some Kenneth Walker in GPPs. Walker went for over 100 rushing yards last week and is starting to get some receiving work, totaling six receptions over his previous two games.
WR DeVonta Smith ($7,100)
Sam Hodde/Getty Images
In QB Gardner Minshew’s first full game for the Eagles, DeVonta Smith out-targeted WR AJ Brown 12-8 en route to a monster performance. The “slim reaper” has three 20+ point games in his last four along with 8 or more targets in each of those contests. With WR AJ Brown expected to be covered by 4-time pro bowler CB Marshon Lattimore, Smith makes all the sense in the world here.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800)
Amon-Ra had a whopping six red zone targets last week. Amon-Ra is still seeing a healthy target share and should be able to exploit the patchwork Bears defense.
TE Travis Kelce ($8,100)
Kelce has gone back-to-back games over 100 receiving yards. Although he put up pedestrian numbers against the Broncos in Week 14, he should be a contrarian play as most will be looking to pay up at RB and WR this week.
TE Tyler Conklin ($2,900)
This is purely a matchup play. The Seattle Seahawks are the #1 True Matchup for TEs. If you have the guts, this gamble could pay off nicely in Mike White’s return.
D/ST
D/ST Detroit Lions ($2,900)
The Lions are at home this week against a banged up Justin Fields. The last time these two teams met, the Lions forced 1 INT and had 3 sacks. With Detroit’s propensity to score quick and often, they could force Fields into several mistakes.
Lone Ranger (sub $5,000 player that can score over 10 fantasy points)
WR DJ Chark got the job done in Week 16, however, WR Marquise Goodwin missed the memo, bringing me to 8-8 on the year.
WR Jahan Dotson ($4,600) & WR Hunter Renfrow ($4,000)
I mentioned Dotson and Renfrow above. I like both a lot in their respective matchups at their respective salaries.
Have a great week 17 of DFS! Go win big!
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By Clayton Jones
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.