Welcome to the final edition of the Broto Fantasy Buy Low and Sell High Column for the 2022 season. With Week 16 of the NFL season in the books, Lead Writer Matt Ward has eyes on one buy-low target and one sell-high target heading into Championship Week! Although the majority of redraft leagues have surpassed the trade deadline, the dynasty market is as hot as ever. The immediate goal for managers at this juncture should be to win a championship at all costs. Do not, however, allow that to stop you from amassing future value while making savvy moves on the market. In this special Championship Week edition, we will shift our focus to dispersing assets that can help managers bring home the hardware while simultaneously increasing their future roster value.
As always, we will be viewing player values through a Superflex lens.
Take advantage of your league mates by acquiring star players at their lowest value and dealing away volatile players at their highest values!
BUY LOW
Brandon Aiyuk WR - San Francisco 49ers
Musket Fire
There was no way we could close out the Buy Low and Sell High series without reminding managers of the undervalued production and stability that Brandon Aiyuk provides. A historic rookie Reception Perception profile grouped Aiyuk in an elite tier of separation specialists only for the talented wideout to regress in horrendous fashion in his second year.
The negative anchoring bias of Aiyuk’s second season remains palpable on today’s market despite the 49ers receiver being in the midst of a career-best season with 65 REC/855 REC YDS/7 TD/12.7 PPG through 15 games played. He is pulling a 22.4% target share, executing with respectable consistency while transitioning through three separate quarterbacks (Lance, Garoppolo, Purdy).
The former 2nd-round pick is also living up to his route success rates from his first season, averaging 2.20 yards of separation per target (WR8) as one of the league’s top route-runners. Although Aiyuk is not viewed as a prototypical “league-winning” asset his consistency as a high-upside Flex/WR3 is extremely valuable in the final game of the fantasy football season. He has recorded just one game below double-digit fantasy points in his last ten outings, averaging 14.4 PPG since Week 5.
Consistency is admittedly less exciting when managers are attempting to crush their final opponents for a shot at eternal bragging glory. Fortunately, there are few receivers in the NFL who have a better Championship Week matchup than our favorite perennial Buy-Low candidate. Aiyuk and the 49ers travel to face the Raiders in Week 17 in a rare cross-conference matchup between AFC/NFC West opponents. The Raiders' defense concedes 244.3 (27th) passing yards and 23.3 points per game (27th) to opposing offenses, both ranked in the bottom five of the NFL. They give up 29.3 combined fantasy PPG to the wide receiver position, ranked 10th in True Matchup Rank with a Points Over Average rating of 9.1%. Aiyuk is a surefire WR2 in Week 17 with a safe floor in a top-10 positional matchup. Looking towards the future, Aiyuk is still only 24 years old with several sturdy years of reliable production in his range of outcomes.
SELL HIGH
Ezekiel Elliot RB - Dallas Cowboys
Ezekiel Elliott has been a revelation of overlooked production since returning from a short absence while tending to a knee injury. The Cowboys franchise running back has scored more than 13.0 fantasy points in every outing over the last six weeks, supporting high-end scoring outputs despite sharing the field with another top-tier running back in Tony Pollard. Unfortunately, the scoring production in question may come to a halt in Week 17, leaving managers with a declining/aging running back in an ever-changing and volatile dynasty market.
The Cowboys hit the road to face the Titans on Thursday Night Football in a battle between two playoff hopefuls in their respective conferences. The Titans have lost five consecutive games but to no fault of their run defense. Their defensive front allows a mere 80.1 rushing yards per game (2nd) while conceding 9.6 PPG of rushing production (-33.0% POA) to opposing running backs on average. Eliott has also found the end zone in eight straight contests, creating an unpredictable and unsustainable floor. Touchdown regression would absolutely torpedo Elliott’s presumed safety as a must-start running back.
Managers that wish to hold onto Elliott for their final game of the 2022 season are not wrong to weigh the veteran’s immediate production over the potential market return. Conversely, the outlook for the soon-to-be 28-year-old running back does not match the pleasantries of the present. Per PFF, a mere 11.0% of running backs between the ages of 28-35 have finished as a top-12 (RB1) positional asset over the last ten seasons. On the other hand, running backs below the age-28 threshold make up a whopping 89.0% of RB1 finishes from 2012-2021. This is what dynasty managers refer to as the dreaded “Running Back Age Cliff”. For perspective, there is only one running back in the top 12 older than 27 (Derrick Henry) this season.
Eliott’s continued run as a reliable producer is reaching a risky outlier stage of his career. His consensus dynasty value has fluctuated from an offseason ADP of RB20 to a mid-season fall-off of worthless evaluation at RB42, to a rising market value of RB29 to end the year. Elliott’s rollercoaster market worth offers managers a sneak peek behind the curtain of the drastic decline in resale value for veteran running backs.
Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
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By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.