Attention to exclusive and advanced analytics can give managers an advantage over the average competitor. However, the noise of unnecessary statistics can make the process of using advanced statistics quite intimidating. Here at Broto Fantasy, we aim to provide managers with actionable data directly relating to fantasy football. The goal is to empower the FF player by giving you every single tool you need to become your own fantasy football expert.
In this recurring weekly series, we will highlight each of Broto Fantasy's exclusive statistics and use these numbers to project player validity throughout the NFL season.
With our first week of fantasy football playoff action in the books, let’s take a look at a few of the top-rated performers from Week 15 and how they’ve fared in our exclusive True Value rankings.
TRUE THROW VALUE
True Throw Value strips outside factors and minimizes randomness by looking at a quarterback’s full volume and production to find their efficiency on a micro-level. Fantasy managers can essentially understand this as adjusted fantasy points per pass attempt.
Josh Allen - Buffalo Bills
Week 15 FPTS: 35.9 (QB2)
Week 15 TTV: 0.704 (QB2)
2022 TTV: 0.521 (QB6)
Josh Allen executed with precision against the Dolphins in Week 15 despite frigid temperatures in Buffalo. Allen completed 25/40 pass attempts for 304 yards, four touchdowns, and no turnovers, while adding 77 yards on 10 carries for good measure. The fearless gunslinger completed passes to nine different receivers in below-freezing temperatures, heating the hands of his teammates with fiery missiles all over the field. Allen’s 0.704 True Throw Value from Week 15 coincides with the highest quarterback rating of the slate (119.2), reflecting the continued output of high-value pass attempts at a time when fantasy managers value consistent production over all else.
TRUE TARGET VALUE
A derivative of True Throw Value. True Target Value analyzes a player’s quantity and quality of targets and, in correspondence with their quarterback’s True Throw Value, computes a number meant to show how valuable said player’s targets are. The higher the value, the more projected points.
Zay Jones - Jacksonville Jaguars
Courtney Culbreath, Getty Images
Week 15 FPTS: 34.9 (WR1)
Week 15 TGT Share: 19.0% (8 TGT)
2022 TTaV: 5.26 (WR10)
The Jaguars orchestrated an incredible comeback leading to an overtime victory over the heavily favored Cowboys in Week 15. The win would not have been possible without the continued late-season heroics of forgotten underdog Zay Jones. The Jaguars veteran wideout was a primary focus in our previous True Value Report: Lowkey League Winners, citing the undervalued receiver as a must-add asset to close out the season due to Trevor Lawrence’s rapid growth as a superstar quarterback. Positive regression appeared to be on the horizon for Jones and it came in a big way for his fantasy managers in Week 15 despite being blanketed by All-Pro cornerback Trevon Diggs. Jones hauled in six of his eight targets for 109 yards and three touchdowns as he did his part in keeping theJaguars' glimmering playoff hopes alive. Fantasy managers relish in the same rewards as art imitates life and the unsuspecting Jones carried numerous teams to the semi-finals stage.
TRUE PLAYER GRADES
A composite grade based on current-year production that evaluates past performance while analyzing trends to predict future production.
In this edition of the True Value Report, we will utilize True Player Grades to analyze the running back position.
Christian McCaffrey - San Francisco 49ers
Week 15 FPTS: 25.8 (RB4)
2022 True Player Grade: 97.8 (A+)
2022 True Player Rank: RB2/5th OVR
Those who thought poorly of Christian McCaffrey’s alignment with the 49ers inside of the most prolific offensive scheme for running production in the modern-day NFL are appearing mighty foolish as the season finishes. The former MVP candidate has had six RB1 finishes since leaving the Panthers with three consecutive top-5 finishes in his last three outings. McCaffrey is averaging 27.9 PPG over the last three weeks, putting an emphatic stamp on the first week of the fantasy playoffs with 25.8 points against the Seahawks in Week 15. The do-it-all dynamo rushed for 108 yards and one touchdown on 26 attempts, adding 30 yards on six receptions (8 TGT). The 49ers' star running back is commanding a league-leading 22.4% target share and top-8 opportunity share (73.3%) while maintaining incredible efficiency. McCaffrey is currently averaging 21.0 PPG (RB3) but has an excellent opportunity to exceed those numbers before the season ends, cementing himself as the rightful RB1 once again.
If you want to follow this series throughout the 2022 season, check out the other weekly reports here:
Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
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By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.