Welcome to Clay’s DFS Plays for the Week 16 Christmas Eve Saturday slate! Week 15 wasn’t as kind as Week 14, however, we still had some hits. Here are some of the calls that worked out last week:
Jalen Hurts- 39.70 points
Derrick Henry- 29.30 points
Keenan Allen- 16.6 points
Patrick Mahomes- 35.74 points
Juju Smith-Schuster- 17.8 points
Travis Kelce- 23.50 points
Time to get back on track in Week 16. Let the #printfest begin!
Week 16 Draftkings Saturday slate
Games to target:
1. SEA @ KC – 48.5 O/U
Implied totals: SEA 19.5; KC 29
2. WAS @ SF – 39.5 O/U
Implied totals: WAS 16; SF 23.5
3. BUF @ CHI – 39.5 O/U
Implied totals: BUF 24; CHI 15.5
4. NYG @ MIN – 47.5
Implied totals: NYG 22; MIN 25.5
Top Cash Plays:
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes ($8,400)
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
This is a pay-up for safety move. QB Jalen Hurts is not playing this week making Mahomes the King of the slate. The Seahawks are the 11th best True Matchup for opposing QBs (Throughout this article I’ll refer to True Matchup or True Matchup Rank, this is a Broto Exclusive Stat that adjusts for how defenses perform against specific players teams have faced, rather than overall points allowed. Download here: Apple App Store and Google Play Store). Mahomes has only one game with less than 20+ PPR points in his last five, including two games with 30+ points. Just let Mahomes carry you to victory in cash games this week.
Running Back
Derrick Henry ($8,600)
D-Henber is in full swing with King Henry recording back-to-back weeks of over 100+ rushing yards and a rushing TD and this year, there are some extra gifts under the tree. Henry has accumulated nine targets over his past two games for seven receptions and 93 yards. Lock King Henry into your cash lineups this week.
Jerick McKinnon ($5,900)
McKinnon has been insane the past two weeks. He has scored 35.4 and 32.2 PPR points, respectively, and is clearly a key cog in the offensive game plan as the Cheifs prepare for the playoffs. After a season-high 18 touches, the upside of McKinnon is too big to ignore.
JK Dobbins ($5,800)
JK Dobbins has been effective and efficient since returning from injury, combining for 245 yards and one TD in his two games since returning. Dobbins’ opponent this week, the Atlanta Falcons, rank as the 9th-best True Matchup for RBs.
Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson ($9,300)
Justin Jefferson is insanely great. He has scored 30+ PPR points in three of his last four games while commanding double-digit targets in all four. WR Jahan Dotson torched the New York Giants defense for 105 yards and a TD in Week 15 and the week before that, WR’s AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith combined for 134 yards and 2 TDs. Jefferson is the best WR in the NFL and he should have his way with a vulnerable Giants secondary in Week 16.
Juju Smith-Schuster ($5,800)
Since returning from injury, Juju has back-to-back weeks of double-digit targets and 70+ receiving yards. Don’t be scared off by Seattle’s True Matchup Rank of 30th for WRs, teams have been choosing to run all over them instead (2nd-best True Matchup for RBs), translating to low WR output. I’m trusting Smith-Schuster in cash this week in a Kansas City offense that uses the passing game to set up the run, rather than vice-versa.
DJ Chark ($4,200)
Chark couldn’t handle Jets CB Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner last week but neither can the vast majority of the league. Otherwise, Chark has accumulated 18 targets over the previous three weeks and 90+ receiving yards in two of those three games. The Panthers are the 13th-best True Matchup for WRs. Trust Chark to get the job done for you in cash this week.
Tight End
Jordan Akins ($2,900)
Akins is a cheap hit-or-miss option for Week 16. The good news is that Akins has 5+ targets in three of his last 5 games. The bad news, Akins has 5.1 PPR points or less in three of his last five games. However, Akins’ matchup this week has been a fruitful one. The Titans slot in as the 6th-best True Matchup for TEs. Remember, this is the same team TE Evan Engram destroyed a few weeks ago.
D/ST
San Francisco 49ers ($3,900)
An expensive play, yet the 49ers get a home game against QB Taylor Heinicke, who has been sacked 8 times over his last two contests. Since claiming the starting gig in Washington, Heinicke has thrown 5 INTs in 8 games and been sacked 17 times total. Enter the 49ers, who rank 9th in sacks and 11th in pressure rate (QB hurries + knockdowns + all sack plays). Heinicke is going to want an ice bath for Christmas after this game.
Baltimore Ravens ($3,200)
The Ravens have been tough defensively this season since acquiring LB Roquan Smith from the Bears. Baltimore has given up the 4th-fewest passing yards and the 5th-fewest in points allowed. Now, the Ravens get a home game against rookie Desmond Ridder. Ridder was sacked four times last week against the Saints and passed for less than 100 yards. Naturally, Falcons HC Arthur Smith is going to try to use the run game to help Ridder, but the Ravens excel against the run as well. The Ravens have given up the 3rd-fewest rushing yards this season as well as the 3rd-fewest rushing yards per attempt. Fire up the Ravens defense in cash this week.
Favorite stacks:
1. Patrick Mahomes + Travis Kelce + Juju Smith-Schuster with DK Metcalf/Marquise Goodwin bring back.
2. Kirk Cousins + Justin Jefferson + Dalvin Cook, no bring back.
3. Geno Smith + DK Metcalf + Marquise Goodwin with Travis Kelce/Jerick McKinnon bring back.
4. JK Dobbins + Ravens D/ST
5. Christian McCaffrey + 49ers D/ST
GPP Plays:
QB Jared Goff ($5,400)
It’s okay to excuse Goff’s performance against the stingy New York Jets defense in Week 15. In his previous two tilts, Goff had 24+ fantasy points.
QB Patrick Mahomes ($8,200)
See cash section.
RB- Nick Chubb ($7,700) or Kareem Hunt ($4,900)
The Cleveland Browns love to run the ball. In fact, the Browns have run at the 9th-highest rate (49.1%) in the NFL this season. This should play nicely into their matchup with the Saints, who are the 8th-best True Matchup for RBs. RB Tyler Allgeier dusted the Saints’ defense for 139 yards and 1 TD last week. If Chubb can’t go because of his foot injury, Hunt will have tremendous value.
WR DK Metcalf ($7,100)
Metcalf is a menacing endzone threat and should be busy in a game script that favors the pass. He has 51 targets over his last 5 games and 70+ receiving yards in four of those five games. With Tyler Lockett sidelined for the game, Metcalf is a smash play.
WR Ja’Marr Chase ($8,300)
Future HOF HC Bill Belichick always takes away an offense’s best weapon, however, Ja’Marr Chase is a different animal. Since Chase returned from a hip injury, he has totaled 36 targets over 3 games along with 90+ receiving yards in two of those three games. Don’t let Belichick scare you, throw Chase in some GPP lineups.
TE Travis Kelce ($8,000)
Kelce was due after a few down games and he popped off last week for 10 receptions for 105 yards. This week, Kelce gets the Best True Matchup for TEs in the Seattle Seahawks, who just allowed George Kittle to have a great game. Get Kelce in those GPP lineups!
D/ST
Philadelphia Eagles ($2,200)
The Eagles rank 3rd in pressure percentage at 24.6% and QB Dak Prescott has struggled mightily lately. Dak has thrown 7 INTs and been sacked 13 times in his last four games. If the Eagles can stop the Dallas rushing attack, Dak will be under siege all afternoon.
Lone Ranger (sub $5,000 player that can score over 10 fantasy points)
WR DJ Chark ($4,200) & WR Marquise Goodwin ($4,300)
I mentioned Chark earlier and love him as a play this week. Goodwin, on the other hand, gets a boost due to WR Tyler Lockett being out. In an expected high-scoring game, Goodwin will have to be an active part of the offense to keep Seattle in the game against KC.
Have a great week 16 of DFS! Go win big!
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By Clayton Jones
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.