Attempting to predict outcomes in the NFL can seem fairly easy when looking at it from a macro view. Anyone who follows the league can point out that one team may have a good offense and their opponent may have a bad defense but, if that's all there was to it, the exhilaration we feel from watching football every Sunday would cease to exist. When you zoom in on any game you’ll see the individual battles taking place all over the field. These are often where the real story is told, so let's dive into some of the Pro Football Focus data on matchups between Wide Receivers and Defensive Backs that could really tip the scales in Week Sixteen.
Golden Opportunity WR of the Week
Gabriel Davis vs Chicago Bears
One of this season's most hotly-debated players, Gabe Davis is in prime position to give his supporters some ammunition this week. Gabe Davis has proven to be a boom-bust player throughout his career but has a chance to add some more boom to his stats in Week 16. Gabe Davis’ 64.7 PFF grade is nothing special but it’s 14.4 points better than Bears corner Jaylon Jones, who is projected to cover Davis for 19 snaps. Jones is also allowing a catch 71% of the time he is targeted, a huge help for Davis who has only been able to haul in 55% of his targets this year. The other 3 corners leading the Bears in snap count are averaging a 57.7 PFF grade while allowing over 14 yards per reception.
Better Luck Next Time’ WR of the Week
Courtland Sutton vs Los Angeles Rams
Courtland Sutton’s 66.9 offensive PFF Grade and 68.0 receiving PFF grade are both his worst recorded since his rookie season in 2018. Sutton now has to matchup against Jalen Ramsey for a projected 22 snaps (most of any individual matchup in this game). Ramsey may be having a down year to the naked eye but his 81.9 PFF grade shows you that he’s still an above-average CB. On that note, Ramsey hasn’t given up 100 yards since week one and his top-5 coverage grades have come in games where he has been tasked with covering one player for 20 snaps or more.
Dogfight of the Week
Terry McLaurin vs Charvarius Ward
Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
The staggering amount of similarities in this matchup are just too fun not to highlight. Terry McLaurin and Charvarius Ward are projected to lineup against each other more than any other two players in this game. Also, each are the highest graded player at their position for their respective teams (McLaurin at 80.7 and Ward at 83.1). Scary Terry’s 2.0 yards per route run is a great figure, and yet Ward is holding opposing pass-catchers to less than one yard per route run in his coverage. PFF marked McLaurin with an almost perfectly average 50.4 matchup advantage. This is a battle between two studs on two teams with playoff aspirations. This will be fun to watch.
The Fantasy Football by Broto app is now live on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store! Download it today for a start/sit tool, player cards, exclusive statistics, usage, rankings, interactive tools, coaching tendencies, and much, much more!
Check out patreon.com/BRotofantasy to access extra episodes, join our community, win prizes, and help keep the app free.
By Taren Caravella
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.