There are only three weeks left in the NFL season but that means there is still plenty of time to keep winning! We went 4-0 last week bringing our running total to 75.51%. Remember that most games are on Saturday this week, with only 3 Sunday games for Christmas. Use any of the following picks to build your favorite 6-points, 2-team teasers.
Game of the Week
Buffalo Bills (-8.5) @ Chicago Bears O/U: 40.5
Themi’s Teaser: Bills -2.5
Billie Weiss/Getty Images
The Chicago Bears are fooling a lot of people, aren’t they? I love Justin Fields but last week was not indicative of what the Bears can do on a weekly basis with their current offense. The Eagles were always susceptible on the ground, not through the air, and the Bears just ran their usual offense of Justin Fields and RB David Montgomery. It worked for a bit, especially with the Eagles struggling to generate offense against a soft defense for a few drives. It is unlikely that this happens again against a Bills defense that ranks 3rd in DVOA against the run.
Chicago’s streak of great matchups comes to an end here. Buffalo is all-around impressive on defense and Chicago is banged up at WR, although they never throw much anyways. Even at full strength, this is a mismatch. Weather conditions in Chicago are expected to be rough but we’re teasing the Bills down to a win by just a field goal. The spread has moved to 8 in some spots which doesn’t immediately offer an advantage over 8.5 but it could mean this drops to 7.5 before kickoff.
Underdog of the Week
Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers O/U: 40.5
Themi’s Teaser: Raiders +8.5
Emotions will be at an all-time high in this game. Pittsburgh legend Franco Harris sadly passed a few days before his number was to be retired on Sunday Night Football on the 50th anniversary of the miraculous play that kickstarted the Steelers dynasty of the 70s. The Steelers will have a lot to play for in his honor and memory, but it is impossible to quantify the worth of that emotion.
The Steelers have been steadily improving. Their defense looks bearable since TJ Watt’s return and the run game is actually working. Kenny Pickett is still a very conservative QB who hasn’t led the Steelers to a truly dominant win. Last week’s win over the Panthers was their best shot but they crawled to an 8-point win despite a solid all around football game. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren were effective on the ground and Mitch Trubisky fed Diontae Johnson but none of it was enough for a fireworks-worthy offensive showing. The Panthers have a solid defense that ranks 20th in DVOA while Vegas ranks dead last. The Steelers have versed an equally awful Falcons defense, though, and only won by 3 on the road. Atlanta ranks only slightly better on offense than the Raiders but Pittsburgh is much worse against the pass than the run.
Where the Falcons were ill-equipped for victory, the Raiders could excel. Derek Carr and the passing game as a whole don’t actually rank very highly but an alpha WR like Davante Adams could wreak havoc. Mack Hollins and a healthier Darren Waller will make it hard for this Steelers secondary to guard everyone while also stopping Josh Jacobs on the ground. Pittsburgh’s defense is good but this isn’t the game where they magically fix every issue. Cornerback is still a big need heading into the 2023 draft.
If you feel like the emotional aspect of the game makes this line unplayable, that’s fine, but don’t let emotions overcome you. Betting is something you do that shouldn’t always take precedence over what you actually want to happen. We’re just playing the odds here. I’m a Steelers fan who would love nothing more than a 35-0 victory. I just don’t expect that sort of result.
Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) O/U: 37.5
Themi’s Teaser: 49ers -0.5
Is Brock Purdy an anomaly? It seems like both line setters and sharps are going to have to take these losses for the sake of their process. I’m not here to doubt them - they’re long-term winners for a reason. The issue is that Brock Purdy is likely affecting betting models in a big way but he’s in one of the most perfect situations to succeed. It’s not like he’s playing badly and getting away with it, either. He just doesn’t need to do much to lead the team to a win. His EPA+CPOE is 11th amongst QBs since Week 13 and the 49ers offense ranks 7th in EPA/play in that span. San Francisco has feasted on some bad teams in this short span but they smoked a tough Bucs defense. The 49ers defense is still one of the best, and arguably the best, in football. That leaves the Commanders to make their case for how they win this week.
Washington boasts a tough defense that sits just outside the top-5. That’s where the good stops. The Commanders are one of the worst offenses in the league and are only slightly better on the ground than through the air. Their only impressive win has been upsetting the Eagles by taking advantage of a defensive matchup, with a little bit of luck on their side too. There’s luck in every game and perhaps it plays a major role this week but the Commanders don’t have an especially obvious matchup that they can stifle the 49ers with this week. San Francisco is one of the most talented teams in the league and they’re still getting the 4th best odds to win the Super Bowl. Ride with the 49ers to outright win. Even if Brock Purdy starts to make some mistakes, this defense can bail him out.
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By Themi Michalakis
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.