Back to back weeks in the red is never optimal. We can call a spade a spade. I thought I was seeing the board well but my vision was cloudy. We missed the hook for the Vikings despite the historic comeback, the Chiefs failed to cover a high spread against a low team, as did the Eagles. The Bengals were our saving grace, as well as NYG moneyline, if you were crazy enough to tail me. Dalvin Cook was our only TD scorer, even though Dobbins and Watson both got close enough to score several times. We move onwards and upwards though as this is the only way. We have the Christmas spirit on our side this week and I am confident Santa is going to deliver us some green underneath our betting trees! Let’s get after it.
Giants @ Vikings (-3.5) o/u 47.5
NBC Sports
The New York Football Giants are back, baby! Another underdog cover/win outright for the G-Men last week leaves them atop my bet slip for the Christmas slate. Although the Vikings did complete the biggest comeback in NFL history and they have been relatively kind to us over here at SchizPicks, the 3.5 hook is here for our taking. NY made it happen last week against Washington in a big spot and should have enough momentum on their side to keep this close. Toss a half unit on the moneyline (+176) for some extra fun as well.
Schiz’s Pick: NYG +3.5 (-105)
Commanders @ 49ers (-7) o/u 37.5
The San Francisco 49ers are proving that once again, the perfect system can continue to thrive when key pieces fall. The 49ers sport the most elite defense in the league (arguably), a top 3 running back, an elite TE and incredible WR weapons. Brock Purdy has proven that he can manage games just like Jimmy G did, so this team should cruise to a TD or more margin of victory. The 49ers have covered 6 of the last 7 weeks, all of which were victories, and there is no sign this team will be slowing down.
Schiz’s Pick: 49ers -7 (-105)
Eagles @ Cowboys (-4) o/u 47.5
The loss of Jalen Hurts is undoubtedly playing a role in this line. That being said, the Eagles are arguably the most complete team in the league. They have an elite WR core, an incredible rush attack and a flashy and exciting defense that also does the little things well. Gardner Minshew has had success in the NFL at various times throughout his career and he cannot ask for a better supporting cast, especially with stud TE Dallas Goedert returning. This matchup has a lot at stake for both of these NFC East juggernauts, so I expect a nitty gritty back and forth matchup. Four points is too many.
Schiz’s Pick: Eagles +4 (-110)
Texans @ Titans (-3.5) o/u 35.5
If you haven’t heard that Derrick Henry has had at least 200 yards rushing and 2 TD’s in the last 4 matchups against Houston, you are living under a rock. This feels like a scary moment for the public that loves to step into Vegas Traps on the regular but it feels silly to try and be too cute. Henry is running as well as he ever has and Houston is not even close to a tough matchup for him. I think it is safe to say he will find the endzone once, and in a must win spot for Tennessee, I have no doubts they will secure the W.
Schiz’s Pick: Derrick Henry Anytime TD/ML Parlay (+135)
Sprinkle 2 TD’s (+330), 3TD’s (+1400)
Seahawks @ Chiefs (-10) o/u 49.5
This is a no brainer. Patrick Mahomes and his favorite target, Travis Kelce, as ten point favorites, taking on the number one True Matchup Ranked matchup for Tight Ends in the Seattle Seahawks. It is remarkable that this is close to even money. I will be hammering this line.
Schiz’s Pick: Travis Kelce Anytime TD/ML (-105)
A Prop and a Scorer
Jefferson o91.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Justin Jefferson is on the brink of breaking the all time NFL record for receiving yards in a season. Extra game aside, this is a remarkable feat he is pushing for. JJ is also easily the best WR in the league, and against a Giants secondary that is shaky at best and riddled with injuries, I expect an 8 receptions for 90 yards by halftime type of game. This high line should be no problem for the class of the league, who is matchup proof in the toughest of situations. I would take an alternate line for 100+ yards for plus money as well.
Robert Tonyan Anytime TD (+430)
The Packers are facing a Miami Dolphins defense that is a top 5 matchup for the TE according to True Matchup Rank and are also in a weird spot at WR. After a few insanely hot weeks, Christian Watson came back down to earth in Week 15 and with Romeo Doubs back in the lineup, the work was being spread more equitably between the two. Another weapon should open up an opportunity for Tonyan to score here at a great value.
That is all folks! Merry Christmas and good luck!
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By Mike “Schiz” Schissel
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.