Week 16 Sleepers and Busts

SLEEPERS

QB: Aaron Rodgers (GB)

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers (6-8) travel to face the Dolphins (8-6) in a cross-conference Christmas Day clash with playoff implications on the line for both teams. Betting lines have the projected scoring total set at 49.5 points, tied for the highest Over/Under of the Week 16 slate with the Dolphins favored by 4.0 points. The Packers will likely need to win their last three games to force a wild card playoff berth, whereas the Dolphins need to secure a minimum of two wins to make the postseason.

Standing in the Dolphins' way of that first win is the pugnacious presence of four-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers. Labeling the future Hall of Fame quarterback a “Sleeper” in any season prior to 2022 would be viewed as a ludicrous overstatement as managers would simply expect Rodgers to put up QB1 numbers each week. Unfortunately, Rodgers has posted only two such performances this season, averaging 14.9 PPG (QB20), causing an understandable dip in roster percentages. Those numbers should be skyrocketing leading up to the Packers' Week 16 showdown.

The Dolphins' defense concedes 17.4 points of passing production (20.2% POA) and 5.4 points of rushing production (5.4% POA) to opposing quarterbacks. Overall the team allows 22.9 PPG to the position, ranked 5th in True Matchup Rank with a Points Over Average of 18.3%. They allow 246.3 passing yards (27th) and 24.6 points (27th) per game to their opponents, ranked in the bottom five of NFL defenses in both categories.

Betting on Rodgers to register his third QB1 performance of the season in the semi-finals of the fantasy playoffs is admittedly risky. A slew of critical injuries to viable starting quarterbacks and available streamers makes the former four-time MVP an enticing candidate in a plus matchup with a positive game script rife with high-volume pass attempts.

Matt Ward

RB: Isiah Pacheco (KC)

Seattle has bled fantasy points to the RB position all season long, both via the run and receptions out of the backfield. Isiah Pacheco seems to be sneaking under the radar this week after McKinnon’s back-to-back massive fantasy days. Despite Jerick McKinnon erupting for consecutive RB1 weekly finishes, Pacheco was silently chugging along and doing his thing as well, turning in 90+ scrimmage yards in both games.

The Seahawks allow 35% Points Over Average to opposing running backs and currently sit as the 2nd best matchup in True Matchup Rank. This is a smash spot for the Chiefs backfield. Vegas seems to like Pacheco this week as well, as they’ve set his rushing over/under at 69.5 and his anytime TD odds are set at -105. All it takes is for touchdown variance to go his way this week and he’ll instantly be a high end RB2/low end RB1.

Boyd Armstrong

WR: Chris Moore (HOU)

With Nico Collins officially out for the week, Chris Moore is set to feature as the Texans’s WR2 after acting as the team’s target hog with both Nico Collins and Brandin Cooks out for a few weeks. It’s not ideal to see him return to the #2 role with the return of Cooks, but he benefits from a massive matchup advantage. The Titans pass defense ranks 28th in DVOA and they’re the 4th best matchup for WRs in True Matchup Rank. The Titans have already allowed nearly 4000 passing yards and 25 TDs this season. It’s hard to trust Davis Mills, or whichever QB the Texans decide they want in on a play. Moore is not a safe play by any means but if you missed out on the hot waiver adds in the past few weeks and are out of FAAB, Moore is available in a lot of leagues. Against a terrifying Titans run defense, this should be a pass-happy affair for the Texans.

Themi Michalakis

TE: Noah Fant (SEA)

The Seahawks (7-7) have lost four of their last five games, entering Week 16 as 10.0 point road underdogs to the hometown Chiefs (11-3). The Seahawks are eying a bid to the playoffs whereas the Chiefs are looking to lock down first place in the AFC, securing a round one bye and home-field advantage in the divisional round. This contest matches the Dolphins vs Packers as the highest Over/Under of Week 16, slated at a projected scoring total of 49.5 points. The Seahawks will have to open up the playbook with a pass-happy offensive attack if they hope to keep pace with the league’s number-one scoring offense in a must-win matchup. Unfortunately, the Seahawks will be without veteran wideout Tyler Lockett as the crafty speedster will miss just the second game of his career after receiving surgery to repair a broken bone in his hand. One of the primary benefactors of Lockett’s absence and the Seahawks assumed increased passing attack is the oft-overlooked but never forgotten Noah Fant.

The uber-athletic tight end has finished as a top-5 option in two of his last three contests with a dreadful 0.0-point performance wedged in between those outings. In Week 15, Fant hauled in five of six targets for 32 yards and one touchdown against a 49ers defense that allows a mere 8.4 PPG to opposing tight ends with a negative Points Over Average rating of -16.7%. The Chiefs' defense presents a much easier matchup with a scintillating game script to go alongside it. The Chiefs allow 10.2 PPG to tight ends (4.2% POA) while conceding 227.6 passing yards and 23.0 points per game to rival offenses.

Fant picked up an injury designation (knee) as well, limiting his practice reps leading up to the cross-conference clash with the Chiefs. It is, however, worth noting that Fant has appeared in all 14 of the Seahawks' games this season, earning more than 50.0% of the offensive snaps in each contest. If Fant is able to suit up against the Chiefs, he could be in line for a season-high receiving slash.

Matt Ward

BUSTS

QB: Dak Prescott (DAL)

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys (10-4) host the Eagles (13-1) in a division matchup of bitter rivals in Week 16. The visiting Eagles will be without their franchise quarterback and MVP candidate Jalen Hurts as the third-year signal-caller will miss his first game of the 2022 season with a shoulder injury. Gardner Minshew slides in as the starting quarterback, causing betting lines to shift the projected Over/Under scoring totals to 46.5 points with the hometown Cowboys favored by 4.5. The game script suggests a potential low-scoring affair that favors the rushing attack of both offenses, leaving Prescott in a negative game script against a truly horrendous defensive matchup.

The Eagles' defense is amongst the best in the NFL at all facets, allowing 321.4 scrimmage yards (2nd) and a league-best 172.4 passing yards (1st) to opposing offenses. They concede 19.1 points per game to their opponents, ranked sixth. The team excels at stifling the production of rival quarterbacks, giving up 10.6 passing PPG (-20.8% POA) and 3.1 rushing PPG (0.0% POA). The Eagles' defense currently ranks 29th in True Matchup Rank for the quarterback position with a combined Points Over Average -19.8%.

Prescott has posted just one QB1 finish in his last four games, finishing as the QB19, QB13, QB16 and QB8 with nine touchdowns and seven interceptions in that stretch. If you’ve been stashing a viable pivot with top-12 upside on your roster, now is the time to make the change as Prescott will likely disappoint managers with a mediocre outing against the NFL’s top passing defense.

Matt Ward

RB: D’Onta Foreman (CAR)

At the start of the season, a starting running back with the ability to see 20+ touches against the Detroit Lions would’ve been a blessing to have in your fantasy lineupe. Surprisingly though, Detroit has been playing shut down defense against running backs down their late season stretch. Here’s a quick look at how the last five weeks have gone for opposing starting running backs when they’ve faced Detroit:

Week 11: Saquon Barkley - 15 rushes, 22 yards - 4.50 Half PPR points, RB40 weekly finish.

Week 12: Devin Singletary - 14 rushes, 72 yards - 8.50 Half PPR points, RB34 weekly finish.

Week 13: Travis Etienne - 13 rushes, 54 yards - 6.10 Half PPR points, RB38 weekly finish.

Week 14: Dalvin Cook - 15 rushes, 23 yards, 1 touchdown - 8.10 Half PPR points, RB26 weekly finish.

Week 15: Zonovan Knight - 13 rushes, 23 yards - 2.30 Half PPR points, RB58 weekly finish.

As you can see, Detroit has completely halted production for some of the top running backs in the game. The last time the Lions gave up a weekly RB2 or higher finish was all the way back in week seven when they faced the Dallas Cowboys. Ezekiel Elliott finished as an RB1 while Pollard himself was an RB2 on the week as well. Ever since then, it has been stingy city for Detroit’s run defense and opposing running backs have been incapable of producing meaningful fantasy numbers.

To make matters worse, Foreman’s numbers have been shaky since his hot start after the Christian McCaffrey trade. Last week against the Steelers, Foreman had 10 carries and only produced 10 yards while pairing his 1 YPC with a fumble. All signs point towards a very disappointing D’Onta Foreman day and I would do everything I can to pivot to a different option for my semi-finals matchups.

Boyd Armstrong

WR: CeeDee Lamb (DAL)

The Dallas Cowboys have committed their offense to the run. Even when trailing, the Cowboys only pass 56.3% of the time, which is the 7th lowest rate in the league. When they’re tied, they’re passing 52% of the time, which is the 12th lowest rate in the league. With all this said, Lamb’s biggest hurdle is actually something different: the CB matchup. Avonte Maddox is expected to shadow Lamb most of the time, like he did in Week 6. Lamb caught 5 of 10 targets for 68 yards which made him the half-PPR WR30 that week. Lamb has had mixed results in tough matchups this season, finishing as the WR75 against Antoine Winfield and the WR29 against Chidobe Awuzie. The Eagles are the 7th hardest matchup for WRs per True Matchup Rank and CeeDee Lamb's struggles against top secondaries cannot be ignored.

Themi Michalakis

TE: Dawson Knox (BUF)

Dawson Knox has been a recent revelation of top-tier production from the tight end position, leading the team in all receiving categories in back-to-back outings with 14.1 (TE5) and 21.8 (TE3) fantasy points. The next matchup for Knox will likely serve as a stark reminder of his low floor and volatility.

The Bills (11-3) are on the road to face the Bears (3-11) in Week 16 as they attempt to clinch the number one seed in the AFC and all the perks that follow. The visiting Bills are favored by a whopping 8.0 points with the Over/Under set at a lowly 40.5 points, suggesting a projected blowout.

As bad as the Bears have been this season, they have stood the test against opposing tight ends, allowing a league-worst 6.9 PPG to the position. The Bears' defense ranks 31st in True Matchup Rank with a negative Points Over Average of -28.4% while giving up 211.7 passing yards per game (15th) to opposing offenses, exhibiting strong coverage from their linebackers and safeties while struggling to cover outside the numbers. Although his two-game heroics have been encouraging, Knox is still maintaining a meager average of 8.7 PPG (TE13) while commanding a mediocre target share of 12.9% (TE22).

The Bills could easily snuff out the Bears in the opening possessions, rendering Knox as a risky volume play dependent on garbage time production against an already difficult defensive matchup.

Matt Ward

Sleeper Christmas Movie - The Guardians of the Galaxy Holiday Special (2022)

I’m a sucker for anything comic book related and the two Guardians of the Galaxy movies (plus the video game) are some of my favorites of the genre. I had low expectations for this holiday special, as it seemed to just be a throwaway thing to add onto Disney+ but I was very surprised by how much I loved it. Whether it’s Kevin Bacon getting kidnapped to be a Christmas present or an alien band playing a rock and roll song about how little they understand Christmas, it’s simply goodhearted fun with a heartfelt message throughout and I can’t recommend it enough.

Boyd Armstrong

Bust Christmas Movie - Christmas with the Kranks (2004)

This movie was completely forgettable to me and I can’t tell you a single thing that happens in it, even though I know I’ve watched it. If I wanna watch Tim Allen in a Christmas movie, I’ll go watch The Santa Clause and have a much better time with my boy, Bernard the Elf.