With Week 15 of the NFL season in the books, Lead Writer Matt Ward has eyes on two buy-low targets and two sell-high targets heading into Week 16! Although the majority of redraft leagues have surpassed the trade deadline, the dynasty market is as hot as ever.
As always, we will be viewing player values through a Superflex lens.
Take advantage of your league mates by acquiring star players at their lowest value and dealing away volatile players at their highest values!
BUY LOW
Marquise Brown WR - Arizona Cardinals
NFL.com
The Cardinals 2022 season is all but lost as the team enters Week 16 with a 4-10 record. The team will be without their franchise quarterback for the remainder of the year and potentially further. The downgrade from Kyler Murray to Colt McCoy is a tangible step back for the Cardinals' wide receivers, primarily the field-stretching Marquise Brown. The former Ravens wideout has recorded over 60 air yards in every contest this season, save for the games in which McCoy is under center. Brown is coming off a wretched receiving slash of 4 REC/8 TGT/19 REC YDS in Week 15 against the Broncos and will likely continue to disappoint at the most integral moments during the fantasy playoffs. Contending managers are more desperate than ever, clamoring for a weekly edge in points while coughing up massive value to accomplish the task. Conversely, rebuilding rosters or teams with serviceable depth in a strong playoff position should aggressively pursue offers for the Cardinals' studly speedster. Brown’s low ceiling and saddened end-of-season trajectory should loosen the grip of diamond-handed managers, allowing a savvy discount transaction. His current production is by no means indicative of the stand-alone value accrued as a top-tier dynasty asset. The fourth-year wideout is pulling a 25.4% target share (WR19), averaging 14.8 PPG (WR15) with 57 REC/88 TGT/584 REC YDS/3 TD and was on pace to smash his career-best season before being placed on injured reserve. The immediate goal for managers at this juncture should be to win a championship at all costs. Do not, however, allow that to stop you from amassing future value.
Drake London WR - Atlanta Falcons
Drake London is yet another wide receiver in an abhorrent situation with an astonishingly stable market value despite a low-scoring output. The Falcons have officially made the switch from veteran signal-caller Marcus Mariota to rookie third-round quarterback Desmond Ridder. Unfortunately, the one-game sample size yielded disparaging results. Ridder completed 13/26 pass attempts for a lowly 97 yards with no touchdowns. The underlying and optimistic narrative to Ridder’s inept output was London’s dominant target share of 42.3%. London netted 70 of Ridder’s 97 passing yards, catching seven of 11 targets against a stout Saints secondary. This ability to bully opposing defensive matchups is nothing new for the first-round selection. The Falcons' rookie wideout exhibits incredible target-earning talent, evident by his rookie-leading target share of 29.3% (WR7) and 31.5% target rate (WR4). Pulling opportunity shares in the upper echelon of the NFL’s best talent is no easy feat, doing so in your inaugural season suggests a career range of outcomes that few have matched. Dynasty managers should be drooling at London’s peripheral metrics while throwing the proverbial checkbook at those impatient with the youngster’s wavering production. The former USC product is averaging just 9.7 PPG (WR49), tallying 54 REC/92 TGT/603 REC YDS/4 TD through 14 games. The chaotic race for a fantasy championship presents a positive window to swap a higher-producing option of lesser value for a future superstar.
SELL HIGH
George Kittle TE - San Francisco 49ers
George Kittle put an emphatic stamp on the first round of the fantasy playoffs with a vintage 4 REC/5 TGT/93 YD/2 TD outing against the Seahawks in Week 15. Although this marked Kittle’s best game of the 2022 season, the stat line in question becomes less exciting when viewing the matchup he was up against. The Seahawks defense has allowed tight ends to walk all over them this season, allowing a league-worst 17.2 PPG to the position with a mind-boggling Points Over Average rating of 72.6%, ranked 1st. The veteran’s blow-up game against division rivals was admittedly encouraging and surely helped managers secure a bid to the next round of the playoffs. Unfortunately, the behemoth blocker and pass-catcher extraordinaire has had a less-than-ideal body of work when viewing the 2022 season as a whole. Kittle has had seven performances outside of the top-20 tight ends this season with just five games as a TE1. The 49ers' star tight end recorded below 7.0 fantasy points in four of his last six games but is averaging 11.6 PPG (TE5) through 12 games played. Kittle’s top-5 PPG total is being upheld by an unusually high touchdown rate, even by his standards. The veteran tight end has matched his career-high of six touchdowns despite a career-low target share (17.8%) and target rate (18.4%). If Kittle’s opportunities continue to regress beyond the 2022 season, his volatile production will become too risky to hold in comparison to his market value.
Mike Evans WR - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Evans’ dwindling target share over the last several years has been masked by an unmatched propensity for touchdowns and 1000-yard seasons. It appears as if the lack of consistent volume within the Buccaneers' passing offense has finally caught up to the big-bodied wideout. Evans is commanding a lackluster 19.3% target share (WR40) and 22.0% target rate (WR48) after posting two consecutive seasons below 20.0% in both categories during 2020-2021. The veteran wideout is averaging a disappointing 13.1 PPG (WR28) en route to what may be the first season of his career below 1000 yards receiving. The Buccaneers' future beyond 2022 is a dark unknown as the career of first-ballot Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady comes to a close. It may be frustratingly difficult to find a proper market return for Evans with so few contending rosters remaining in dynasty leagues. Managers should get crafty with their trade packages, using Evans as a strong pivot asset to acquire an injured superstar or forgotten youngster with upside. Alternatively, the Buccaneers veteran currently has a market value adjacent to high-priority Superflex assets such as Jared Goff, Rashod Bateman, and Kirk Cousins, all of which present a substantially better chance at maintaining their value over time in comparison to Evans.
Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
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By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.