Attention to exclusive and advanced analytics can give managers an advantage over the average competitor. However, the noise of unnecessary statistics can make the process of using advanced statistics quite intimidating. Here at Broto Fantasy, we aim to provide managers with actionable data directly relating to fantasy football. The goal is to empower the FF player by giving you every single tool you need to become your own fantasy football expert.
In this recurring weekly series, we will highlight each of Broto Fantasy's exclusive statistics and use these numbers to project player validity throughout the NFL season.
Every season a player flies under the radar until the final weeks wherein they put up league-altering production. We’re not talking about the players that you drafted in the first round who are meeting expectations with weekly high-end production. We’re looking for the underdogs, the castaways, the once-forgotten undrafted fantasy asset that has become today’s fantasy superstar.
The fantasy playoffs are fast approaching with just one week of regular season play left for the majority of leagues. In this special edition of the True Value Report, we will highlight a few of the unsuspecting names that have topped our exclusive statistics.
TRUE THROW VALUE
True Throw Value strips outside factors and minimizes randomness by looking at a quarterback's full volume and production to find their efficiency on a micro-level. Fantasy managers can essentially understand this as adjusted fantasy points per pass attempt.
Mike White - New York Jets
True Throw Value: 0.668
Ranking: QB1
Mike White’s gutsy debut in Week 12 against the Bears led the fan-favorite quarterback to 30.8 FPTS (6pt passing TD) and a QB6 finish on the week. He posted the highest single-game True Throw Value rating of any Jets quarterback this season with a 0.889 rating in his first start of the year. The Jets reserve man was pinpoint accurate despite playing in a torrential downpour, completing 22/28 pass attempts for 315 yards and three touchdowns with a near-perfect passer rating of 149.3.
Although his Week 13 loss to the Vikings was largely scrutinized as a poor performance, White still managed to exceed ECR and projections, producing 19.46 FPTS as the QB7 on the week. He tallied two interceptions without a passing touchdown but bombed on the Vikings for 369 yards, completing 31/57 attempts while adding a touchdown on the ground. Analysts and managers are quick to discount White’s performance despite showing a solid floor of production even when he fails to throw a touchdown.
Watching a competent NFL-level quarterback operate under center for the Jets is an unusual but welcomed sighting. The entire offense should receive a perceived upgrade for as long as White is dealing the rock.
The Jets remaining strength of schedule lends increased encouragement for White’s continued Cinderella run. The AFC East hopefuls close out the fantasy football season against the Bills, the Lions, The Jaguars and the Seahawks in Week 17. Of those four matchups, the Bills are the only team that ranks outside of the top 12 in True Matchup Rank to opposing quarterbacks. The Jets’ final four opponents combine to allow a positive Points Over Average rating of 8.2%, setting White up for a legendary finish to his short but magical season.
TRUE TARGET VALUE
A derivative of True Throw Value. True Target Value analyzes a player's quantity and quality of targets and, in correspondence with their quarterback's True Throw Value, computes a number meant to show how valuable said player's targets are. The higher the value, the more projected points.
TRUE AIR YARDS
The total amount of yards a pass traveled before arriving at the target, adjusted for the completion probability of the throw.
Zay Jones - Jacksonville Jaguars
True Target Value: 4.66 (WR16)
Cumulative True Air Yards: 371 (4.3 True aDOT)
Fansided
Zay Jones has been a consistent performer all season, averaging 11.6 FPTS (WR35). A recent trend of increased opportunities has the big-bodied wideout primed for positive regression as he has recorded target totals of 10, 14, and 7 over his last three contests. It is worth noting that Jones suited up in Week 13 despite being hampered by a soft-tissue injury, recording a 20.6% target share on reduced snaps.
The Jaguars veteran has turned a respectable 22.6% target share on the season into 60 receptions for 578 yards but has only one touchdown. Jones may be a candidate for an uptick in the touchdown column during the coming weeks as he has received four red zone targets in the last two games after tallying just six total prior to that point. He has an EPA of 13.1 PPG with a True Target Value of 4.66, suggesting a strong finish to the 2022 season.
Jones has already done enough to warrant recognition for vastly out-producing his lowly preseason ADP.
TRUE PLAYER GRADES
A composite grade based on current-year production that evaluates past performance while analyzing trends to predict future production.
Geno Smith - Seattle Seahawks
True Fantasy Grade: 79.4 (B-)
True Player Rank: QB8/41st OVR
Geno Smith has been a plug-and-play fantasy quarterback for managers this season, posting a QB1 finish in 8/12 games. The castaway journeyman has just two games outside of the top 15 weekly scorers, averaging 19.3 PPG (QB9) with a career-high 3169 yards and 22 touchdowns.
Smith is registering incredible accuracy ratings as the Seahawks' starter. He currently leads the NFL in clean-pocket completion percentage at a 78.3% clip, per PFF, with a sensational 8.1 yards per attempt (QB4). The veteran signal-caller has upheld viable fantasy seasons for D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett while breathing new life into tight end Noah Fant despite the entire offense being disregarded prior to the start of the season.
The Seahawks still have five games remaining on their schedule and Smith has already tallied the best season of his rollercoaster career.
Not only is the 32-year-old carrying fantasy managers to the promised land but he is also putting the Seahawks in a position to push for the playoffs in the very same season in which they traded away their supposed franchise quarterback Russell Wilson. The Seahawks sit at 7-5 as the third Wild Card team in the NFC and are just 1.5 GB from the 49ers for leaders of the NFC West.
Smith has far-exceeded his presumed trajectory this season, matching consistent QB1 production with masterful peripheral metrics. He has deservedly earned the league-winner label and should continue to support his awe-inspiring averages until the season’s end.
If you want to follow this series throughout the 2022 season, check out the other weekly reports here:
Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
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By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.