Attempting to predict outcomes in the NFL can seem fairly easy when looking at it from a macro view. Anyone who follows the league can point out that one team may have a good offense and their opponent may have a bad defense but, if that's all there was to it, the exhilaration we feel from watching football every Sunday would cease to exist. When you zoom in on any game you’ll see the individual battles taking place all over the field. These are often where the real story is told, so let's dive into some of the Pro Football Focus data on matchups between Wide Receivers and Defensive Backs that could really tip the scales in Week Fourteen.
Golden Opportunity WR of the Week
Mike Williams vs Miami Dolphins
Creator: Jayne Kamin-Oncea | Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Copyright: Jayne Kamin-Oncea
Often times, when trying to find a mismatch in the NFL, I look for differences in skill and production based on data. Many prefer to weigh stature and physicality instead. Luckily, sometimes we are fortunate enough to get both—like with Mike Williams in week 14. Williams has been inconsistent but is the type of player that can take over a game and win it almost by himself. Sporting a 73.8 PFF receiving grade and averaging 1.70 yards per route run, Williams is having a solid season. This week the Dolphins come to town and, with Nik Needham injured, Keion Crossen is projected to line up against Williams for 21 snaps. His poor coverage grade (53.3) is in-line with most of the Miami secondary which hasn't played well. The grading disparity is reason enough to be excited, but if you add the fact that Williams is six inches taller and nearly 25 lbs heavier than Crossen you have the perfect recipe for Mike Williams week.
‘Better Luck Next Time’ WR of the Week
Brandon Aiyuk vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
With Brock Purdy starting at Quarterback, San Francisco needs as much help from their offensive weapons as they can get. Brandon Aiyuk lines up on the offensive left 40% of the time, where he will almost exclusively be covered by Jamel Dean. Aiyuk has played well. His 78.3 PFF receiving grade leads all 49ers pass-catchers. Unfortunately, Jamel Dean is such a matchup nightmare for Aiyuk that you might think he was created in a lab for the sole purpose of shutting Aiyuk down. Dean rarely gets beat in coverage—he’s allowing a measly 0.68 yards per route run to wide receivers and has only given up one touchdown since week three. Typically one of the beautiful things about a player like Brandon Aiyuk is his ability to create with the ball in his hands. Jamel Dean leads the Bucs in PFF tackling grade with an Elite 90.4 and has yet to be credited with a single missed tackle all year. Good luck creating anything on his side of the football field.
Dogfight of the Week
Keenan Allen vs Kader Kohou
Let's revisit the first game we touched on with another player making his return to the series: Kader Kohou. I highlighted the undrafted free agent slot corner down in Miami many weeks ago and he’s maintained good play since. Kohou’s 74.4 coverage grade is the best on his team, the next best active Dolphin cornerback is grading out at 56.9 (Xavien Howard). With Keenan Allen back for LA and running most of his routes from the slot, PFF projects these two will face off for 27 snaps—more than any other pair of players in this game. Keenan Allen has been banged up and hasn't had a single game PFF receiving grade over 75.0 since week one. That said, he’s averaging 2.0 yards per route run, has a touchdown each of the last two games, and is a household name for a reason.. If the Dolphins want to win they need to take away at least one Chargers offensive weapon. That means it’s imperative that Kader Kohou steps up in this spot, being the only guy in that secondary not at a disadvantage on paper.
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By Taren Caravella
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.