Clay's Corner: DFS Plays for Week 14

Welcome to the Clay’s DFS Plays for Week 14! Week 13 was a low-scoring and contrarian slate, let’s see how Week 14 stacks up! Let the #printfest begin!!

Week 14 Draftkings

Games to target:

1. HOU @ DAL – 44.5 O/U 

Implied totals: HOU 13.75; DAL 30.75

2. MIN @ DET – 53.5 O/U

Implied totals: MIN 25.5; DET 28

3. KC @ DEN – 43.5 O/U

Implied totals: KC 26.25; DEN 17.25

4. NYJ @ BUF – 46.5

Implied totals: NYJ 17; BUF 26.5

Top Cash Plays:

Quarterbacks

Jared Goff ($5,600)

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Goff has certainly been up and down this season. After a solid outing against a tough Bills defense in Week 12, Goff stomped the Jaguars in Week 13 to the tune of 340 yards and two touchdowns. This week, Goff gets the Minnesota Vikings, who just gave up 369 passing yards to Jets QB Mike White. With an over/under of 53.5, Goff projects for strong numbers. 

Jalen Hurts ($8,100)

What can I say about Hurts that hasn’t been said? He’s a front-runner for MVP, he has amazing weapons in WR AJ Brown and WR Devonta Smith, and he has back-to-back games of 30+ PPR points. The Giants grade out as the 13th best True Matchup for QBs, so deploy Hurts with no concerns. 

Running Back

Christian McCaffrey ($8,500) 

QB Jimmy Garoppolo’s early exit allowed McCaffrey to thrive in Week 13, tying WR Deebo Samuel for a game-high 10 targets. Even though the Buccaneers are a difficult matchup for RBs, I still expect solid production from CMC with 7th-round rookie Brock Purdy under center. 

Derrick Henry (7,900) 

It’s get right week for Henry. Henry ranks 1st in rush attempts and, surprisingly, yards per reception (12.4) among RBs. Henry also ranks 3rd in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and rushing yards per game. Enter Jacksonville, who slots in as 12th in True Matchup Rank for RBs (Throughout this article I’ll refer to True Matchup or True Matchup Rank, this is a Broto Exclusive Stat that adjusts for how defenses perform against the specific players teams have played, rather than overall points allowed — available on the Fantasy Football by Broto app ion the Apple App Store and Google Play Store). King Henry is primed for a huge week. 

Joe Mixon ($6,900) or Samaje Perine ($6,300)

At the time of this article, Mixon is still listed as questionable even though he was a full participant in Wednesday’s practice. Although Mixon lacks the rushing attempts that someone like Henry has, he’s been crushing through the air. Among RBs, Mixon ranks 7th in targets, 9th in receptions, 4th in True Target Value (a Broto exclusive stat that you can access for free on the Broto app), 3rd in red zone opportunities and 7th in target share at 11.9%. Going against Cleveland, the 6th-best True Matchup for RBs, Mixon should have another big week. 

Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson ($9,000) 

Jefferson struggled in Week 3 against Detroit, only mustering 3 receptions for 14 yards. Since that meeting, Jefferson has 5 finishes as overall WR4 or better as well as having 8 or more targets in every game except one. Trust Jefferson to get revenge in cash this week.

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800)

A consistent cash game staple, St. Brown is always viable in cash and GPPs. ARSB has finished as WR3 and WR2 overall the previous two weeks, respectively, accumulating 22 targets, 20 receptions, 137 yards and 3 TDs. No one in the Vikings’ secondary can stop the “Sun God.” The Vikings rank 13th in True Matchup Rank for WRs. 

Christian Kirk ($6,600) 

Christian Kirk popped last week for 6 receptions for 104 yards and now gets the same defense that was steamrolled by WR A.J. Brown and WR Devonta Smith for 221 yards and 3 TDs. The Titans secondary isn’t getting any better—get Kirk in your cash lineups for a bit of salary relief. 

Tight End 

TJ Hockenson ($5,100)

TJ Hockenson had a down week last week vs. the Jets, only going for 4 receptions for 33 yards. Don’t let that performance fool you. Among TEs, Hockenson ranks 3rd in red zone opportunities, 5th in target share (18%,) 3rd in true target value (Broto exclusive stat), 2nd in receptions and 3rd in targets. Hockenson is getting the volume and now gets his chance at a revenge game. The Detroit Lions are 3rd-best True Matchup Rank for TEs. Hock smash!

D/ST 

Kansas City Chiefs ($3,900) and Philadelphia Eagles ($3,700)

I love these two defenses this week. Both teams get great matchups against weak offenses and with the potency of the Kansas City and Philadelphia offenses, Denver and New York could be in in catch up mode, making the possibility of a turnover more likely.  

Favorite stacks:

1. Patrick Mahomes + Travis Kelce + Juju Smith-Schuster/Mecole Hardman, no bring back.  

2. Jared Goff + Amon-Ra St. Brown + DeAndre Swift/Jamaal Williams with Justin Jefferson or TJ Hockenson bring back.  

3. Joe Burrow + Ja’Marr Chase + Tee Higgins/Tyler Boyd with Amari Cooper or Nick Chubb bring back. 

4. Geno Smith + DK Metcalf + Tyler Lockett with DJ Moore bring back. 

5. Jalen Hurts + AJ Brown + Devonta Smith, no bring back. 

GPP Plays:

QB Joe Burrow ($6,700)

Burrow finished as QB2 last week and I’m going back to him again this week. Burrow struggled against the Browns on the road in Week 9, throwing for 232 yards with 2 TDs, a fumble, and an interception. “Cool” Joe seems to have righted the ship since then, registering three top-4 QB performances in his last four games. Trust Burrow & Co. to get the job done for you in GPPs. 

RB- Nick Chubb ($7,800)

Chubb burned the Bengals defense in Week 9 for 101 rushing yards and 2 TDs and I think he can put up similar numbers again this week. The Bengals slot in as the 13th-best True Matchup for RBs. Although he burned me last week, I’m running it back with Chubb in GPPs this week. 

RB- James Cook ($4,600)

As a James Cook stan, I’ve been waiting to throw him into one of these columns. Cook out-rushed RB Devin Singletary for the first time this season last week and looks like he might be in position to take over the backfield. Where Cook really shined was earning targets last week, tripling Singletary in target share (18.2% to Singletary’s 6.1%). This play is a huge gamble, but if Cook hits at this salary you’ll gain a huge advantage on the field. 

WR Ja’Marr Chase ($7,900)

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Chase returned last week after missing time and immediately put up 7 receptions for 97 yards. As he gets healthier, his role in the offense is only going to get bigger. The Bengals will be looking to avenge their Week 3 loss to the Browns and will be using Chase to do it. I’ll be using Chase in GPPs this week. 

WR DJ Moore ($5,500) 

Carolina is going to have to score to keep up in this game and DJ Moore is the right guy for the job. Moore recently roasted young stud corner CB Pat Surtain II for 103 yards and a touchdown. Even in a tough matchup against a decent secondary, Moore should get peppered with targets. 

TE Evan Engram ($3,300) 

The Titans are the 10th-best True Matchup for TEs, making Evan Engram an excellent GPP option this week. Engram crushed in a great matchup last week against the Detroit Lions for 5 receptions, 30 yards and a TD, and I expect him to smash again.

D/ST

Kansas City Chiefs ($3,900),

Philadelphia Eagles ($3,700),

Dallas Cowboys ($3,800)

Lone Ranger (sub $5,000 player that can score over 10 fantasy points)

WR DJ Chark ($4,300) 

DJ Chark was fully healthy in Week 13 and finished with 5 receptions for 98 yards. Chark also gets the advantage this week of facing the Top True Matchup for WRs in the Tennessee Titans. DJ Chark do do do do do do put him in your lineups. 

Have a great week 14 of DFS! Go win big!

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By Clayton Jones (@FFPulse88)