SLEEPERS
QB: Ryan Tannehill (TEN)
Tannehill has never been the sexiest name at QB. His tenure with the Tennessee Titans has actually been highlighted for how little he passes. Mike Vrabel has taken full advantage of RB Derrick Henry and is running him into the ground as he thirsts for the olden days of the NFL. That has diminshed the value of Ryan Tannehill and most Titans pass catchers in recent years, although the True Throw Value King, as Tannehill has been dubbed at Broto, has made the most of his limited opportunities.
This week, Tannehill gets his best matchup since facing the Raiders—when he finished as the QB8—as the Jacksonville Jaguars ride into Nashville. The Jaguars are the 4th best QB matchup per True Matchup Rank, and their passing defense is 31st in the league in DVOA. Tannehill’s great matchup comes at a strange time, though. Rookie WR Treylon Burks is in concussion protocol and may not get cleared by Sunday. Fellow rookie TE Chigoziem Okonkwo has been steadily rising, however, and saw his best game with Burks missing most of the game last week. Burks’ loss wouldn’t be impossible to overcome but it does hurt him slightly. Robert Woods, Austin Hooper, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine are set to take over most of the receiving work in his absence. With more bye weeks, injuries, and subpar QB performances, Tannehill gets a great matchup and is set to beat expectations in what should be a close game. The Titans struggle through the air as well so a shootout is still possible with Trevor Lawrence heating up in recent weeks.
Themi Michalakis
RB: D’Onta Foreman (CAR)
Chanelle Smith-Walker/Carolina Panthers
The Sleepers and Busts series always intends to highlight a player who we believed is foolishly ranked below their projected range of outcomes for the week. I am planting my flag in this article by saying that D’Onta Foreman will not only greatly exceed his ECR and platform projections but will finish as a top-10 running back in fantasy this week.
The Panthers enter Week 14 fresh off their bye as they travel to face the Seahawks. In the team’s last game, D’Onta Foreman handled 24 carries (58.5 RSH%) for 113 yards on a 53.0% snap share (35), marking his fourth outing with over 100 scrimmage yards in the last six games. Foreman has been a wrecking ball of top-end rushing production since the Panthers shipped Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers. The Panthers' bruising veteran has three RB1 finishes in his past six contests, falling outside of the top 25 running backs in just two games during that stretch.
In Week 14, Foreman lines up against a Seahawks defense that concedes 17.6 PPG of rushing production (32.8% POA/6th) and 9.3 PPG of receiving production (14.4% POA/12th) to opposing running backs. Overall, the Seahawks rank 5th in True Matchup Rank for running backs, allowing 26.7 PPG with a Points Over Average rating of 22.2%.
Foreman has averaged 14.2 PPG since being named the starter for the Panthers. Any perceived increase in production for the underrated RB1 candidate could boost an already serviceable scoring output into a week-winning performance.
Matt Ward
WR: Zay Jones (JAX)
Zay Jones has earned seven or more targets in three consecutive games with target totals of 10, 14, and 7 over his last three outings. He is averaging 15.3 PPG during that three-game stretch as the clear complementary receiving option alongside Christian Kirk. We recently highlighted Jones in Broto’s latest True Value Report, naming the veteran wideout as a potential league-winning asset with positive regression on the horizon. The towering wideout has an EPA of 13.1 PPG with a True Target Value of 4.66 (WR16), suggesting a strong finish to the 2022 season.
Jones is already putting up 11.6 PPG (WR35) on the year with a respectable 22.6% target share, snagging 60 receptions for 578 yards but only one touchdown. His putrid performance in Week 13 against a hopeless and hapless Lions defense has managers discounting Jones despite a trending increase in opportunity and another sensational matchup in Week 14.
The Jaguars travel to face AFC South division rivals as they square off against the Titans this Sunday. Betting lines have the home team favored by 3.5 points with a projected Over/Under scoring total of 41.5 points.
The Titans' defense is the number one unit in True Matchup Rank for rival wide receivers, allowing 36.5 PPG with a 22.0% Points Over Average Rating. They allow 276.7 passing yards (31st) but just 83.1 rushing yards (3rd) per game, setting the game script for the Jaguars to pass early and often if they hope to find success.
A recent trend of increased opportunities coupled with a scintillating defensive matchup has the big-bodied wideout positioned for a sensational finish to an already impressive 2022 season.
Matt Ward
TE: Gerald Everett (LAC)
The Los Angeles Chargers were crippled by the injury bug early on this season but the offense has slowly been starting to piece itself back together with the return of Keenan Allen last week and Mike Williams (projected return) this week. With that in mind, some Gerald Everett managers might be worried about their fantasy tight end being left out in the cold now that the top dogs are back. I’m here to ease your mind on Gerald Everett’s fantasy outlook, at least for his matchup this week against the Miami Dolphins.
While Everett has not been the top option in an offense, he has been a consistent target earner, seeing a 14% target share this season. For reference, he already has hit a new career high in targets with 65, while still having almost a quarter of the season remaining. He’s seeing nearly 6 targets per game and this Dolphins/Chargers game has the makings of a shootout, as it currently has the highest over/under of the weekend. Moreover, this Miami defense has been vulnerable to the tight end position this season as they’re allowing 12 points per game and 30% Points Over Average, which makes them the 4th best True Matchup for opposing tight ends. No matter how you split it, a high scoring game plus a very vulnerable matchup makes Everett a great option this week.
Everett is currently the TE10 on a points per game basis and has finished as a weekly TE1 four separate weeks. He’s the definition of a low-end TE1 streaming option with the ability to finish in the top-6 on any given week. In a shallow tight end landscape due to injuries and week 14 byes, Gerald Everett is a must start in a lot of situations.
Boyd Armstrong
BUSTS
QB - Kyler Murray (ARI)
Weapons this, weapons that. Kyler Murray is not that great. It doesn’t matter how you cut it, it’s just true. He’s 24th in DVOA, 21st in EPA, and has the 33rd lowest true throw value. I hope I don’t stun you when I note that there are only 32 starting QBs at any given time. Fantasy value is, of course, different from real value but it’s hard to stay at the top when you’re on the opposite end of both spectrums. His True Fantasy Grade of 76.5 is considered a C+.
Murray’s struggles will continue this week. The Patriots are generating pressure on 27.5% of opposing dropbacks, 2nd highest in the league. Per PFF’s Ian Hartitz, Murray is averaging about 3.5 fewer yards per attempt when pressured compared to a clean pocket, which is the 4th largest difference amongst QBs this season. Murray’s legs give him a nice floor. He’s averaging 41.5 rushing yards per game but his ceiling is capped in this matchup. The Patriots are 22nd in True Matchup Rank against QBs—20th against QB passing and 18th against QB rushing. That’s why Murray is not the biggest bust possible or someone you should immediately sit. He doesn’t stick out as the best option for the week and is looking like he will fall just shy of projections. He also hasn’t had many explosive fantasy finishes this season. Daniel Jones has had bigger booms.
RB: Rachaad White (TB)
It is impossible to label Rachaad White as a Bust candidate without first recapping the journey of narratives and usage trends that brought us to this juncture in the season.
In Week 9, White recorded more rushing attempts than Leonard Fournette for the first time in the 2022 season. It is worth noting that both members of the backfield were healthy at the time.
An unfortunate injury to lead back Leonard Fournette led to White handling 22 attempts (57.9%) for 105 yards in Week 10 leading into the Buccaneers' Week 11 bye. With Fournette out of the lineup in Week 12, we were finally able to see the upside the dual-threat possesses. The Buccaneers rookie shouldered 23 total touches (14 RSH/9 REC) with 109 scrimmage yards (64 RSH YDS/45 REC YDS). White recorded a 90.0% snap share, 20.9% target share, 77.8% rushing share, and a 100.0% catch rate on nine targets.
Lastly, a roller coaster of opportunities hit a valley for the talented rookie running back in Week 13. An early fumble caused White to be benched for the majority of the team’s divisional showdown against the Saints, only for the rookie to be inserted into the lineup on the final drive wherein he caught the game-winning touchdown. White finished with 41.0% of the offensive snaps (33) with nine carries (47.4 RSH%) and eight targets (14.8%).
Conversely, White’s benching coincided with the return of Fournette to the lineup after missing one game with a hip injury. The Buccaneers veteran received ten carries (52.6 RSH%) and seven targets (7.0%) on 60.0% of the team’s snaps (48).
If White’s potential placement in the doghouse is not enough to deter you from starting the promising young running back this weekend, his defensive matchup against the 49ers should help push you over the edge. The 49ers are the worst possible matchup for running backs in terms of fantasy production, allowing a stifling 13.8 PPG with a negative Points Over Average differential of -32.5%. The team allows just 5.0 PPG of receiving production (-19.0% POA/26th) and 8.7 PPG of passing production (-36.0% POA/31st) to opposing backfields.
Limited opportunities against the NFL’s best rushing defense create a rancid recipe for disastrously disappointing production from White.
Matt Ward
WR: JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC)
JuJu Smith-Schuster had recorded three straight weeks of WR1 production before a concussion knocked him out of the Chiefs' Week 10 game against the Jaguars. Since then, JuJu has posted two outings below 7.0 PPR points, finishing as the WR69 (6.8 FPTS) and WR 56 (6.5 FPTS) in Weeks 12-13. The Chiefs' slot mechanic has not earned more than four targets since Week 9 with three consecutive outings below 20 routes and 70.0% of the offensive snaps. JuJu’s limited participation is a major cause for concern when projecting his outlook for the remainder of the 2022 season. His matchup against the Broncos in Week 14 may very well be the final nail in the proverbial coffin.
For all their blunders this season, the Broncos defense has been one of the absolute best units in all facets. They allow a mere 323.3 scrimmage yards (3rd) per game with 184.5 passing yards (3rd) and 120.1 rushing yards (18th) and only 17.0 PPG (2nd) to opposing offenses. The Broncos' secondary are the league’s second-toughest unit to score fantasy points against for wide receivers, conceding just 22.5 PPG to the position with a negative Points Over Average rating of -10.7%.
JuJu is by no means a must-start asset in this matchup and is trending toward a drop candidate in redraft leagues if he does not bounce back from the depths of disappointment in a big way.
Matt Ward
TE: Dawson Knox (BUF)
At this point, Dawson Knox is a completely different fantasy option than he was last season. He went from a top-8 TE finish to outside the top-20 through thirteen weeks of this season. He’s fallen off a cliff for fantasy purposes and only has 2 weekly finishes as a TE1 so far. The explanation is simple: Knox stopped catching an unsustainable amount of touchdowns.
Knox is currently a TD-or-bust player who doesn’t catch TDs. Across his last two games against Detroit and New England, he has a combined 5 half-PPR fantasy points despite playing his typical 80%+ of snaps in both games, thanks to the fact that he has seen three targets in his those games.
To make matters worse, the Bills face the Jets and their top notch defense this week. That same defense did a superb job of clamping Dawson Knox’s production the last time they played each other in week nine, where Knox finished with 3 catches for 25 yards and a whopping 7 fantasy points. That was good enough for a TE21 weekly finish and a sure fire matchup killer for fantasy managers. The TE landscape is admittedly thin but the answer this week is not Dawson Knox.
Boyd Armstrong
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For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.