Week 16 Stock Up and Stock Down

With Week 15 of the NFL season in the books, Lead Writer Matt Ward has his eyes on three players increasing their stock and three players on the end-of-season decline heading into Week 16! Take advantage of your league mates by acquiring star players at their lowest value and dealing away volatile players at their highest values!

STOCK UP

James Cook (RB) - Buffalo Bills

James Cook played fantasy playoff hero for several managers who recently invested in the upward-rising running back. With four touchdowns in his last four games and a 120-yard outing outside of that stretch, it appears as if the undersized Cook is finally earning a stable opportunity share that has led to several week-winning outings as of late. The second-year back has now seen 15 or more touches in three consecutive games as the firing of former offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey and subsequent promotion of Joe Brady has given Cook a much longer leash within the offense. His most recent performance yielded a season-best showing with 179 rushing yards on 25 attempts, one rushing touchdown, two receptions for 42 yards, and a receiving touchdown against a solid Cowboys defense. In his last four starts, Cook has finished as the RB9 (Week 11: 17.7 Points vs Jets), RB17 (Week 12: 13.00 Points @ Eagles), RB2 (Week 14: 22.6 Points @ Chiefs), and RB2 (Week 15: 36.1 Points vs Cowboys). Cook has now lifted himself to RB5 overall on the season while averaging 15.3 PPR PPG. The Bills are playing with vigor and purpose after a difficult mid-season slump marred an otherwise promising season. Cook appears to be the main benefactor of the offense new found successes. He has long been a per-touch maven, averaging 0.64 Points Per Opportunity Excluding Touchdowns (PPOxTD), ranked 6th amongst running backs while tying Christian McCaffrey and Jahmyr Gibbs for most plays with 20 yards or more (10 Big Plays). Cook is turning up the heat and the volume at the exact moment when managers need it the most.

Baker Mayfield (QB) - Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Baker Mayfield is entering Week 16 fresh off a season-best performance that saw the Buccaneers quarterback score 29.0 fantasy points while throwing for 381 yards, four touchdowns, and a perfect 158.3 passer rating. After being written off by every franchise he's played for, Mayfield will now enter the NFL record books as the first quarterback in history to post a perfect passer rating while on the road at Lambeau Field. Mayfield has posted seven top-15 positional outings in his last nine starts with over 20.0 fantasy points in two consecutive contests. The Buccaneers quarterback has helped support yet another 1000-yard season from future Hall Of Famer Mike Evans while leading his team to a division-best record. He has thrown for 24 touchdowns in 14 games with only eight interceptions and is currently on pace for a career-best season in rushing production as well (albeit his career-best is just 165 yards). Mayfield is now set to face off against two downward-trending defenses in the Jaguars (Week 16) and the Saints (Week 17) during the fantasy football championship weeks with the latter of the two games potentially deciding the fate of the NFC South. It has not been the most conventional path to relevance but Mayfiel is undeniably trending up as a high-upside quarterback especially considering the current landscape of injuries to the position. 

Ty Chandler (RB) - Minnesota Vikings 

It took Ty Chandler only one game as the team's starter to do what Alexander Mattison failed to do in 13 consecutive starts as the Vikings’ leading running back – post a top-5 positional finish. Chandler operated as the team's only viable rusher out of the backfield in a Week 15 matchup against the Bengals and ran rampant (pun intended) with his opportunity share. The second-year back handled 23 rush attempts for 132 yards and one touchdown while adding three receptions for 25 yards as a receiver. His 81.0% snap share represented the highest total of any Vikings running back in the 2023 season, as did his 24.7 PPR Points which also yielded an RB4 finish. Chandler now has two games under his belt with at least 12 touches while maintaining over 5.0 Yards Per Touch. Conversely, Mattison has just one such game this season. Even upon the veteran's return after injury, it appears vastly apparent that Chandler is the more talented and explosive option, leaving the team no choice but to lean on the youthful utility of their latest breakout candidate.

STOCK DOWN

Tua Tagovailoa (QB) - Miami Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa began the 2023 season as the hottest quarterback in all of fantasy, posting two 30-plus point performances in his first three starts of the year. The sky-high expectations for a healthy Tagovailoa have since cooled off significantly as the Dolphins starter has regressed to a mid-range QB2 as opposed to the top-5 positional asset he displayed in the early portions of the 2023 campaign. In his last five starts, Tagovailoa has posted just two QB1 games (QB11, QB12) with three games outside of the top 20 (QB26, QB24, QB23) despite facing three exploitable defensive matchups in the Raiders (Week 11), Commanders (Week 13), and Titans (Week 14) during that stretch. The Dolphins draw matchups against the Cowboys (19th QB True Matchup Rank) and the Ravens (27th QB True Matchup Rank) to close out the fantasy season, two defenses that combine to allow a negative Points Over Average of (-)8.0% to opposing quarterbacks. Not only is Tagovailoa on a downward spiral of mediocre production but he faces two of the toughest possible matchups for any quarterback during the fantasy playoffs.

Travis Etienne (RB) - Jacksonville Jaguars

You could conceivably list the entire Jaguars offense in this article without quarrel. The team has failed to meet expectations as they remain in a lockstep race with the Texans for the throne in the AFC South after entering the season as heavy favorites to win the division. No member of the offense has seen a more significant decrease in production than Travis Etienne, especially considering the incredible heights he once maintained in the middle portion of the 2023 season. Etienne had posted four consecutive top-5 RB outings From Week 5 through Week 8 before the Jaguars took their mandated bye in Week 9. Since returning from bye week, the Jaguars’ star running back has just one top-12 finish (Week 13: 17.9 Points/RB11 vs Bengals) while falling outside of the top 15 five times in his last six games. The third-year back has also recorded fewer than 15 rushing attempts in three straight games but has not supplemented his lack of usage with a juxtaposed increase in receiving production, collecting a respectable yet disappointing four receptions in each of his last three contests despite the decrease in rushing volume. The saving grace for Etienne and his managers may come in the form of two very susceptible defensive matchups during the final weeks of the fantasy season as the Jaguars travel to face the Buccaneers in Week 16 with a home game against the bottom-feeding Panthers in Week 17. There is no denying the talent that Etienne possesses in his multi-tool arsenal but his current stock is rapidly dropping as the Jaguars look to salvage a season where they performed well below expectations.

Adam Thielen (WR) - Carolina Panthers 

The Panthers have collectively been one of the worst teams in football this season as rookie quarterback Bryce Young works through the growing pains of helming a talentless offense within a franchise that is riddled with dysfunction from the top dogs in the front office down to their laughably thin depth chart. Adam Thielen appeared to be the only bright spot and fantasy-relevant weapon in said offense as the veteran slot-mechanic enjoyed a career resurgence as the team's top receiver. That is until the team justifiably started favoring the development of rookie Jonathan Mingo over the minor semblance of success that Thielen gave the offense. After enjoying a nine-game stretch with eight or more targets in all but one contest, Thielen has since regressed to a meaningless secondary option, earning less than eight targets in four consecutive weeks. He has finished as the WR118 (Week 12: 1.2 Points @ Titans), WR51 (Week 13: 5.5 Points @ Buccaneers), WR29 (Week 14: 11.4 Points @ Saints), and WR47 (Week 15: 8.3 Points vs Falcons) during his last four starts, giving little confidence for managers entering the championship weeks of the playoffs. There is nothing to suggest positive regression toward his mid-season norms or any signs of a strong showing to end the season from his respective offense. Thielen may very well helped you get to the dance but he's certainly not the player that will help bring home the hardware.

Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.

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By Matt Ward