Attention to exclusive and advanced analytics can give managers an advantage over the average competitor. However, the noise of unnecessary statistics can make the process of using advanced statistics quite intimidating. Here at Broto Fantasy, we aim to provide managers with actionable data directly relating to fantasy football. The goal is to empower the FF player by giving you every single tool you need to become your own fantasy football expert.
In this recurring weekly series, we will highlight each of Broto Fantasy's exclusive statistics and use these numbers to project player validity throughout the NFL season.
With 14 weeks of NFL action in the books and the fantasy football regular season in the rearview, let’s take a look at our exclusive True Value leaders.
TRUE THROW VALUE
True Throw Value strips outside factors and minimizes randomness by looking at a quarterback’s full volume and production to find their efficiency on a micro-level. Fantasy managers can essentially understand this as adjusted fantasy points per pass attempt.
*Minimum 300 pass attempts required*
Patrick Mahomes: 0.603 TTV
Joe Burrow: 0.575 TTV
Geno Smith: 0.530 TTV
Tua Tagovailoa: 0.524 TTV
Aaron Rodgers: 0.522 TTV
Jay Bigerstaff - USA TODAY Sports
No one delivers a more valuable ball in the NFL than Patrick Mahomes. The generational gunslinger has tossed for 4160 yards (QB1) and 33 touchdowns (QB1), averaging 8.1 yards per attempt (QB2) with a 65.8% completion rating. The former MVP is merely 837 yards shy from topping his career high with 14 games remaining. He leads the NFL with 101 red zone pass attempts (7.8/G), acting as a major contributor to the high value of his pass attempts. Mahomes currently sits as the QB2 in PPG, averaging 25.2 per contest with the potential to increase those numbers as the top positional asset this season.
Joe Burrow’s pinpoint accuracy and intangible connection with superstar receiver Ja’Marr Chase have kept the Bengals’ signal-caller near the top of the True Value leaderboard for the entirety of the 2022 season. Burrow is averaging 0.59 fantasy points per dropback (QB7) and 23.1 PPG (QB4), completing 68.1% of his pass attempts for 3685 yards (QB3) and 27 passing touchdowns (QB2). The third-year superstar has cemented himself as one of the league’s top pure passers.
An unsuspecting candidate to say the least. Geno Smith has been a revelation of top-end fantasy production this season. It may have taken nine seasons and four different teams but the journeyman castaway is averaging 0.55 fantasy points per dropback (QB9) and 19.7 PPG (QB7) at 32 years old. Smith has already surpassed his career-best numbers in every category, throwing for 3422 yards (QB6) and 25 passing touchdowns (QB4) while leading the NFL in completion percentage (71.5%) through 13 games.
Tua Tagovailoa was looked down upon as a replacement-level quarterback talent with concerns questioning his arm strength and ball placement despite posting stunning accuracy metrics in his second season. Pundits foolishly downgraded the Dolphins' pass-catching options, assuming Tua would not be able to uphold multiple assets at the position. Through 13 weeks, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle rank as the WR2 and WR13 in PPG while their quarterback thrives in delivering consistent, high-value targets. Tua has started and finished in just 10 games this season, missing two due to concussion, but has already racked up 3004 passing yards (QB12) and 22 passing touchdowns (QB5) on a 65.5% completion rating. The former first-round pick is averaging 18.9 PPG (QB9) with a league-leading 8.7 yards per attempt with two of the NFL’s top speed threats on either side of him. Mark this down as what is sure to be one of many season-long appearances amongst the top-ranked quarterbacks in True Throw Value.
Aaron Rodgers has shown signs of drastic decline after being named the NFL’s MVP in two consecutive seasons. The Packers' passing offense has not operated at its expected rate this season as the loss of Davante Adams has had tumultuous effects on the franchise. Rodgers has thrown for just 2864 yards this season (QB14), averaging 15.1 PPG (QB20). His top-5 rank in True Throw Value is a by-product of an incredible 5.2% touchdown rate and 22 passing touchdowns this season (QB5). Rodgers has found a recent connection with Packers rookie wideout Christian Watson, creating an unstoppable scoring combination between the wily veteran and the speedy rookie. The gritty gunslinger has averaged just 26.25 pass attempts per game over the Packers' last four contests but has tossed eight touchdowns in that span. Seven of those eight touchdown passes have found their way into the hands of Watson, helping Rodgers boost his True Throw Value rating despite a largely disappointing season.
TRUE TARGET VALUE
A derivative of True Throw Value. True Target Value analyzes a player’s quantity and quality of targets and, in correspondence with their quarterback’s True Throw Value, computes a number meant to show how valuable said player’s targets are. The higher the value, the more projected points.
Ja’Marr Chase: 8.75 TTaV
Travis Kelce: 7.85 TTaV
Stefon Diggs: 6.14 TTaV
Justin Jefferson: 5.66 TTaV
D.K. Metcalf: 5.64 TTaV
Ja’Marr Chase has played in only nine games this season yet has registered 64 receptions (WR17), 821 receiving yards (WR17) and seven touchdowns (WR7). The generational receiving talent is pulling a 29.4% (WR7) target share with 34.6% of the team’s red zone opportunities with 18 red zone targets (10 REC) this season. Chase has been excellent with every opportunity, averaging 2.35 yards per route (WR16) and 2.45 yards per team pass attempt (WR8), and should continue his reign over the True Target Value ranks for years to come.
Travis Kelce is like a fine malted whiskey that only gets better with age. The departure of Tyreek Hill via trade has done little to affect the success of the Chiefs' offense. It has, however, greatly affected fantasy output of Kelce positively. The future Hall of Fame tight end has already surpassed his career high in touchdowns, catching 12 through 13 games with four remaining. Kelce is commanding a 24.5% target share (TE3), leading all players at the position with 117 total targets, 81 receptions, 1039 receiving yards, and 485 yards after the catch. He also leads all players in the NFL with 17 red zone receptions and 28 targets inside the 20-yard line. It is hard to project regression anytime in Kelce’s near future, even at the ripe, young age of 33 years old.
A bold prediction of mine heading into the 2022 season was that Stefon Diggs would lead the NFL in targets with over 170, averaging 10/G. Through 13 games, Diggs has amassed 132 targets, averaging 10.2/G on a 29.4% (WR6) target share. The Bills wideout is admittedly a few targets shy from leading the NFL but he has translated his top-ranked opportunity share into an incredible 94 receptions (WR3) for 1239 yards (WR4) and 10 touchdowns (WR2), averaging 21.4 PPG (WR5). The lack of consistent pass-catching options on the Bills' offense has left Diggs alone at the table to feast on opposing defenses.
Justin Jefferson has vastly separated himself from all other young stars at the wide receiver position. The Vikings wideout leads the NFL with 142 targets, commanding a 30.4% target share (WR4) with 99 receptions (WR2) for 1500 receiving yards (WR1) and seven touchdowns (WR6). Not only has Jefferson surpassed all his fellow draft mates, he has made a solidified case for himself as the top wide receiver in the NFL, period.
D.K. Metcalf has been the prime benefactor of Geno Smith’s meteoric rise in the True Value rankings. The Seahawks' star wideout has far exceeded his lowly expectations for the 2022 season, thriving in a surprisingly prolific passing offense sans Russell Wilson. Metcalf has 110 targets (WR7) this season, commanding a 26.4% target share (WR14) with 72 receptions (WR10), 869 receiving yards (WR14) and six touchdowns (WR13). The big-bodied wideout is averaging 14.7 PPG (WR16) while leading all receivers with 22 red zone targets, helping to boost his exceptional True Target Value rating.
TRUE AIR YARDS
The total amount of yards a pass traveled before getting to the receiver, adjusted for the completion probability of the throw. This allows us to see how many air yards a player receives while removing variables like hail mary plays, last-second heaves, etc.
Davante Adams: 841 Total True AY
Tyreek Hill: 812 Total True AY
Justin Jefferson: 749 Total True AY
Stefon Diggs: 682 Total True AY
Chris Olave: 652 Total True AY
True Air Yards are a great indicator of the NFL’s top separators at all three levels of the field. Davante Adams is a mainstay in Total True Air Yards both for his sensational ability to earn targets at an elite rate and for his unmatched route-running prowess. Adams is virtually unguardable, finding separation with ease against opposing defenders. He leads the NFL with a 33.4% target share (142 TGT) while boasting a 41.6% air yards share (WR3). The veteran wideout ranks second with 28 deep targets but also first in Unrealized True Air Yards, suggesting Derek Carr’s inept delivery is leaving a lot of points on the table.
This ranking would not be valid without the league’s top deep threat. Tyreek Hill’s otherworldly speed and separation off of the press have earned him 39.6% (WR6) of the Dolphins' air yards this season. Hill is pulling a 32.9% target share (139 TGT), ranked second, with a league-leading 30 deep targets this season. The Dolphins' top wideout has converted his opportunities at a stunning rate, leading the NFL with 100 receptions and a deep-ball conversion rate of 62.2%, second to only Justin Jefferson this season.
Jefferson leads the top five Total True Air Yards ranks with an incredible 68.2% conversion rate on his deep targets. The Vikings' star wideout has amassed 22 deep targets (WR6) while accounting for a 40.7% market share of the team’s total air yards. Jefferson’s other-worldly efficiency is reflected by his 2.99 yards per route run (WR2) and 3.00 yards per team pass attempt (WR2) while also leading the NFL with 142 targets.
Stefon Diggs is not heralded as a burner threat to go deep along the sidelines but his sheer volume and route-running prowess have helped accumulate one of the league’s top True Air Yard rankings. The Bills star does have 20 deep targets (WR8) but only makes up 35.1% (WR14) of the team’s total air yards this season. Commanding 132 targets with an average separation of 2.13 yards per opportunity are the driving factors for Diggs' cumulative True Air Yards total.
Chris Olave has been a fixture in Broto’s exclusive True Air Yards rankings since his inception into the league. Olave is earning an elite 25.8% target share (WR17) with an absurd True aDOT of 6.7 yards, all in his first season as a pro. The Saints rookie has tallied 26 deep targets (WR3) with 60 receptions (WR24) for 887 (WR11) yards and three touchdowns on 98 total targets (WR16). Olave is amongst the smoothest separators in the NFL and possesses burner speed to take the top off of any opposing coverage assignment.
TRUE PLAYER GRADES
A composite grade based on current-year production that evaluates past performance while analyzing trends to predict future production.
In this edition of the True Value Report, we will utilize True Player Grades to analyze the running back position.
Josh Jacobs: 98.1 (A+)
Christian McCaffrey: 97.3 (A+)
Austin Ekeler 96.7 (A+)
Derrick Henry: 95.8 (A+)
Saquon Barkley: 90.9 (A)
Josh Jacobs has found new life as the Raiders' three-down workhorse, putting up career-best numbers in his fourth season. The former first-round draft pick is averaging 21.8 PPG (RB2), rushing for 1402 yards (RB1) on 269 attempts (5.2 YPC) while adding 44 receptions (RB7) for 346 yards (RB7) and 11 total touchdowns (RB5). Jacobs is leading the NFL with an 83.9% opportunity share, boasting a surprising 12.5% target share (RB11) to go along with it. The former Alabama product has been astoundingly efficient with his league-leading volume, posting 5.6 yards per touch (RB9) en route to a career-high in rushing and receiving production with four games remaining on the schedule.
Christian McCaffrey proved this season that the colors on his back are a moot factor to the stellar dual-threat running back putting up league-winning production. McCaffrey stuttered when first arriving at the 49ers facilities but has since rediscovered his identity as a game-altering asset with a singular upside above all others. The former MVP nominee has recorded over 100 scrimmage yards in 9/12 games this season, averaging 20.7 PPG (RB3) with 819 rushing yards (RB11) and 593 receiving yards (RB2). McCaffrey leads all running backs with a 21.8% target share and 72.7% route participation, trailing only Austin Ekeler in receiving production. His unmatched combination of rushing production and receiving ability make McCaffrey a strong option to close out the season as the number-one running back in PPG.
Austin Ekeler is putting up WR1 production from the running back position. The Chargers' do-it-all dynamo has recorded 93 receptions (RB1) for 623 yards (RB1) and 13 total touchdowns (RB2) this season. Ekeler falls just behind McCaffrey with a 21.1% target share but leads all running backs with 113 targets. The veteran satellite back reigns supreme as the RB1 in PPG, averaging 22.5 per.
Long live the King. Derrick Henry is a wrecking ball of top-end production that can only be stopped by his own volition. The 28-year-old running back continues to play at a prime level, rushing for 1199 yards (RB2) with 11 total touchdowns (RB5). Henry is surprisingly putting up a career-best season in the receiving department as well, topping all his single-season bests from years past. He’s recorded 26 receptions (RB27) for 320 receiving yards (RB11) while pulling a respectable 10.5% target share through 13 games. Henry’s rushing production alone is enough to warrant a high True Player Grade but his newfound role as pass-catcher acts as a previously unrealized catalyst that puts Henry in a special tier.
Saquon Barkley has been a cog of consistency in 2022, recording just one game below RB24 while averaging 17.4 PPG (RB5). The Giants' offense has found great success running head coach Brian Daboll’s system through the former first-round draft pick. Barkley has 1083 rushing yards (RB4), 261 receiving yards (RB14), and eight total touchdowns (RB12). He is earning a 15.5% target share (RB5) and 81.1% opportunity share (RB3) while silencing all doubts about his previous injuries. Barkley has taken a bit of a tumble down our rankings as of late with four consecutive outings below 85 scrimmage yards. Nevertheless, his rock-solid foundation of targets and rushing opportunities should help the Giants' lead running back shake the cobwebs off to end the season strong.
If you want to follow this series throughout the 2022 season, check out the other weekly reports here:
Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
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By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.