With Week 14 of the NFL season in the books, Lead Writer Matt Ward has his eyes on two buy-low targets and two sell-high targets heading into Week 15! Although the majority of redraft leagues have surpassed the trade deadline, the dynasty market is as hot as ever.
As always, we will be viewing player values through a Superflex lens.
Take advantage of your league mates by acquiring star players at their lowest value and dealing away volatile players at their highest values!
DeVonta Smith WR - Philadelphia Eagles
Shaban Athuman/Richmond Times-Dispatch via AP
DeVonta Smith is a perennial buy-low nominee as his market evaluation is shrouded in unmitigated bias. The masses would seemingly prefer to ignore Smith’s past production and future trajectory as a high-end WR2. The second-year wideout possesses an impressive resume of collegiate success as a decorated Heisman winner coupled with a stellar rookie season of NFL production under his belt.
Smith is commanding an exceptional target share of 25.7% (WR18) all while battling for targets with A.J Brown in a low-volume passing offense. Somehow, the Eagles' rising star remains a value in dynasty markets.
Smith’s rocky start to the 2022 season helped drive home the brittle straw man debates of the past. Many believed the young wideout’s development would be snuffed out by the arrival of a prototypical alpha receiver. Those aforementioned arguments have crumbled as of late but the preconceived notions remain palpable in the trade market.
Smith has secured a higher target share than Brown in four of their last five games. The game in question in which he failed to receive more opportunities than his teammate was the recent revenge game against the Titans. Brown dog-walked his former team to a tune of 8 REC/10 TGT/118 YDS/2 TD. Smith still managed an encouraging slash of 5 REC/8 TGT/102 YDS/1 TD while leading the Eagles in snaps and route participation.
Misguided managers will point to the absence of Dallas Goedert as the driving causality to Smith’s rising target share but this trend of opportunity allocation has lasted much longer than the recent IR stint.
The Eagles have utilized both their star wideouts in leading roles at different junctures throughout the season. The former Heisman winner has led the team in targets in six of the last nine contests, with just seven fewer targets than Brown this season.
Dynasty market consensus has Smith’s value adjacent to a late 2023 1st Round Rookie Draft pick or multiple 2nd Round picks in any given year. Managers should not hesitate to meet market costs whether contending or rebuilding.
Jared Goff QB - Detroit Lions
The revival of Jared Goff has quietly transformed the Lions' offense into one of the most potent units in the NFL. An impenetrable wall of All-Pro talent on the offensive line certainly has not hurt. The Lions' front five has kept Goff virtually untouched, allowing him to sit back and surgically pick apart opposing secondaries.
The former Rams reject is putting up career-best numbers, completing 65.3% of his passes at a 7.5-yard/attempt (9th) average. Through 13 games, Goff has 3352 yards (8th) and 22 passing touchdowns (5th), averaging 16.9 PPG (QB14) as a high-end QB2 option with weekly upside.
Furthermore, Goff has seemingly done enough in his two-year tenure as the Lions' signal-caller to earn a starting role beyond the 2022 season. The franchise has extended a public vote of confidence in their current leader, saying Goff is not merely a bridge quarterback but a cornerstone asset and a critical key to their future plans. His value on the dynasty market will never reflect his current production or career trajectory as a 28-year-old starting quarterback past this season. Goff is an excellent undervalued buy for as long as he remains atop the Lions depth chart.
SELL HIGH
Joe Mixon RB - Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Mixon has finished outside of the top 24 running backs in three of his last four games and has just one finish since Week 1 as a top-10 scorer at the position in 2022. The game in question came back in Week 9 where the Bengals lead back scored 55.1 fantasy points against the Panthers in his record-breaking performance. Mixon’s 211 YDS/5 TD in Week 9 accounted for 28.4% of his entire production this season.
Those high on the plodding thumper were always willing to ignore his incredible inefficiencies despite maintaining a 74.1% opportunity share (RB7). It appears as if those sentiments are now changing due to an unexpected addition to the value equation.
Watching Samaje Perine consistently finish as a top-10 running back in Mixon’s stead is a stark reminder of asset volatility. The dynasty value we have attached to the Bengals' lead running back is tied directly to his role as a three-down workhorse and the production that ensues, both of which appear to be receding.
Mixon is rapidly approaching the dreaded age cliff for dynasty running backs, entering his seventh season at 27 years old in 2023. We have already seen that he could lose top-end production at any moment if his opportunity share decreases. Not only will Mixon have to maintain an elite ceiling to return value, but he will also have to survive the rising tsunami of running back talent the 2023 class is ushering in.
The theory of value dissipation can ring true for any active NFL running back that is not producing a PPG number equal to/higher than their consensus value rankings. Usually, the market would not be so reactionary to write off solid production but the overconfidence and evaluation of the incoming draft class have caused volatility toward the position like never before. This proposition rings especially true for Mixon who has proven to be an expendable asset both in fantasy lineups and on the Bengals' offense as replacement-level players continue to exceed his on-field production.
Contending rosters may foolishly view Mixon as the final missing piece to their championship roster, extending the sell window on a declining asset.
J.K. Dobbins RB - Baltimore Ravens
J.K. Dobbins and his long-awaited return to the Ravens lineup was the feel-good story of Week 14. The third-year back shed his injury designation before the team’s AFC North showdown with the Steelers. Dobbins impressed on the stat sheet against a much-improved Steelers defense, rushing for 120 yards on 15 carries (8.0 YPC) with one touchdown. Although the stat line was encouraging, Dobbins appeared to be operating with a significant hitch in his gate.
The promising youngster has had three separate surgeries to the same knee since his catastrophic preseason injury in 2021. His explosivity, contact balance, and open-field elusiveness were replaced by a bullheaded peg-leg rushing style that took advantage of wide-open rushing lanes. There are valid skepticisms surrounding re-injury, especially under an increased workload.
Despite his age and position on a run-first offense, Dobbins has little to no chance of surpassing his rising value once the 2023 draft class settles into their NFL homes. As mentioned previously, sustained RB1 production alongside an elite opportunity share is the only combination that can help insulate the value of mid-tier running backs. Dobbins will likely not have full strength until well into the 2023 season (if ever), leaving him vulnerable to a litany of market shifts without a solidified base of scoring output in 2022 to fall back on.
Managers should take advantage of the positive value increase surrounding Dobbins’ one-game heroics by cashing out before the foundation crumbles.
Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
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By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.