2023 Dynasty Market Evaluation: Undervalued ADPs

The very nature of the instantaneous fantasy news feed has made the dynasty market more reactionary and volatile than ever before, especially during the white incessant noise of offseason hot takes. Once the proverbial petrol is poured, and Twitter fingers snap to ignite, player values can burn to the ground overnight. Value changes of this nature cause a ripple effect across the market. For every step up the ladder, someone must move down and vice versa.

This will not be your typical “Buy/Sell” advice column. We are going to hone in on distinct seismic shifts in the dynasty community, provide an explanation as to why these changes are happening, and tell how you can exploit said changes to benefit your roster. If a player drops or raises drastically in value, we may suggest a transaction. However, the primary goal is to understand how to adjust within the market and avoid getting swept up in the whirlwind of overreaction.

Managing a Dynasty roster is about building long-lasting success in the chaotic and unpredictable landscape of fantasy football. The idea should be to give yourself as many assets/bargaining chips as possible so that when you move all in, the deck is stacked in your favor. Every transaction is a gamble, making the right gamble at the right cost is how we profit. “We are card counters at the blackjack table, and we’re going to turn the odds at the casino.”

Today, we look at some of the undervalued assets in Dynasty, drawing unbiased values from Sleeper ADP and KeepTradeCut in an attempt to exploit certain market discrepancies. As always, we will be viewing these players and values through a Superflex lens.

Chris Olave - WR - New Orleans Saints

NewOrleansSaints.Com

Age: 23.0

Sleeper ADP: WR8 - 3.01/25th Overall

KeepTradeCut Rank: WR8 - 2.08/20th Overall

KeepTradeCut Value: 6232

Adjacent Assets:

• Dak Prescott

• Travis Kelce

• Kyler Murray

• Tyreek Hill

• Jonathan Taylor

• Amon-Ra St.Brown

• One Premium 1st-Round Rookie Draft Pick + One Early-2nd-Round Rookie Pick

Chris Olave has become one of Dynasty’s most polarizing assets, seemingly always in the shadow of Garrett Wilson’s spotlight. The constant comparisons in cost and production are just. Both wideouts made their comeuppance as collegiate superstars at Ohio State. Each solidified standout prospect profiles with first-round NFL Draft capital, being selected 10th (Wilson) and 11th (Olave) overall. As rookies, Olave and Wilson enjoyed eerily similar seasons, smashing historic analytic thresholds despite playing with bottom-tier replacement quarterbacks. Finally, each enter their second season with drastically improved quarterback situations with Wilson receiving future Hall of Fame gunslinger Aaron Rodgers and Olave connecting with long-time Raiders quarterback turned Saints savior Derek Carr.

If all other things were equal, the quarterback upgrade undeniably favors Wilson but for how long it will last is unknown. Rodgers will turn 40 years old before the end of the 2023 season, potentially giving the Jets a mere one-off chance to find success before he retires. A one-year upgrade should not cause a full round gap between the former teammates' Dynasty evaluations.

As we mentioned previously in our Dynasty Market Evaluation of Overpriced ADPs, all positive reasons for inflating Wilson’s value apply to Olave with the higher ceiling range of outcomes favoring the Saints receiver.

Chris Olave 2022 Stats:

15 Games Played

72 Receptions (WR 20)

119 Targets (WR 26)

26.7% Target Share (WR15)

29.3% Target Rate (WR10)

1045 Receiving Yards (4 REC TD)

8.8 Yards Per Target (WR22)

14.5 Yards Per Reception (WR21)

1670 Air Yards (WR 8)

40.8% Air Yards Share (WR3)

14.0 Yard aDOT (WR9)

2.57 Yards Per Route Run (WR10)

2.25 Yards Per Team Pass Attempt (WR9)

13.2 PPR PPG (WR25)

Garrett Wilson 2022 Stats:

17 Games Played

83 Receptions (WR 6)

147 Targets (WR 16)

24.9% Target Share (WR21)

26.9% Target Rate (WR16)

1103 Receiving Yards (4 REC TD)

7.5 Yards Per Target (WR59)

13.3 Yards Per Reception (WR35)

1575 Air Yards (WR11)

30.4% Air Yards Share (WR25)

10.7 Yard aDOT (WR51)

2.02 Yards Per Route Run (WR29)

1.76 Yards Per Team Pass Attempt (WR26)

12.7 PPR PPG (WR30)

The only metrics in which Wilson has an edge over Olave are total volume stats which came in an additional two games played. Olave tops Wilson in literally every advanced analytic metric used for predicting the future range of outcomes for Dynasty wide receivers after their first season.

Ironically, Wilson’s current evaluation as a top-3 dynasty asset is more reflective of Olave’s peak ceiling rather than a logical assertion of either asset and their likely trajectory. Both wideouts should be viewed in the tier below well-established elite producers like CeeDee Lamb and A.J. Brown but there should be no perceivable value gap between Olave and Wilson themselves.

Kyler Murray - QB - Arizona Cardinals

Dallas Morning News

Age: 25.9

Sleeper ADP: QB13 - 3.02/26th Overall

KeepTradeCut Rank: QB12 - 3.10/34th Overall

KeepTradeCut Value: 5627

Adjacent Assets:

• Tyreek Hill

• Jonathan Taylor

• Amon-Ra St.Brown

• C.J. Stroud

• Saquon Barkley

• DK Metcalf

• One Premium 1st Round Rookie Draft Pick + One Mid-2nd Round Rookie Pick

The discounts given on Kyler Murray are unexplainable and must be taken advantage of. Allowing a slight dip in market consensus to take into account his current injury is justifiable. This current evaluation is nothing short of abhorrent. 

It is nearly impossible to acquire elite PPG producers at the quarterback position in Superflex leagues. The advantage of starting not one but two weekly producers with number one overall scoring leader potential is league-breaking. Kyler’s current startup cost is blatantly disrespectful and reflects mid-range QB2 prices for a player with a QB1 overall ceiling. 

Kyler has posted four consecutive seasons of top-12 PPG production since entering the league, all before the age of 25. Character and injury concerns are intangible data points and are often entirely irrelevant to on-field fantasy production. The devaluing of an elite asset such as Kyler allows for monumental value swings for all those willing to build around the menial risk of missing half a season of production followed by nearly a decade of elite play.

Jahmyr Gibbs RB - Detroit Lions

Age: 21.3

Sleeper ADP: RB5 - 3.04/28th Overall

KeepTradeCut Rank: RB5 - 3.02/26th Overall

KeepTradeCut Value: 5815

Adjacent Assets:

• C.J. Stroud

• Saquon Barkley

• DK Metcalf

• Tee Higgins

• DeVonta Smith

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba

• One Premium 1st Round Rookie Pick + One 2nd Round Rookie Pick

There are only two running backs I would consider drafting ahead of Jahmyr Gibbs in Dynasty startups. Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall. End of list. 

Truthfully, Robinson, Hall, and Gibbs (in that order) should be viewed as a standalone tier of cornerstone assets in what is the most volatile position in Dynasty leagues. Admittedly, the top of said tier is a bottleneck as Robinson should be considered the only platinum asset at the position. That said, Gibbs should be valued in a back-to-back tier alongside Hall, not an entire round of value below.

We mentioned the Lions rookie briefly as a potential draft pivot off of the Overpriced ADP of Jonathan Taylor stating:

“Only three running backs in NFL history have been selected in the top 20 that own multiple collegiate seasons with a receiving market share above 10.0%. Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Reggie Bush. Gibbs has more than double the collegiate career receiving market share of all three players listed above at 21.7%. Furthermore, all three of the players mentioned above had at least a 20.0% target share and a 40.0% rushing share in their rookie season.”

Being selected 12th overall by the Lions places Gibbs into a bucket of former first-round running backs that all received monstrous opportunity shares during their inaugural NFL season. Franchises simply do not spend up on a player of Gibbs caliber to not utilize their utility immediately and often. Gibbs' incredible prowess as a receiver and rusher offer the Lions infinite paths to developing their newest franchise cornerstone. Even with the presence of David Montgomery, there is no doubt that Gibbs will be targeted heavily in the passing game while simultaneously receiving several high-value opportunities as a rusher.

Discounting Gibbs as a non-volume-based workhorse is foolish. His path to elite production is not reliant on leading the team in carries. He has a collegiate career total of 103 career receptions for 1212 yards and 8 REC TD on an 84.0% catch rating, running 10.8% of his routes from the slot and 15.1% of his routes out wide as a receiver, leading all eligible running backs in both categories. The 12th overall pick possesses a receiving profile that makes most wideouts pale in comparison. 

Gibbs offers a cheat code for receiving production and career longevity/upside at a position that is nearly impossible to predict. Fade him at your own risk. Avoiding a truly generational receiving talent like Gibbs is a mistake you will always regret.

Tua Tagovailoa - QB - Miami Dolphins

DolphinsNation.com

Age: 25.3

Sleeper ADP: QB15- 3.09/33rd Overall

KeepTradeCut Rank: QB14 - 4.03/39th Overall

KeepTradeCut Value: 5411

Adjacent Assets:

• Stefon Diggs

• Travis Etienne

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba

• Cooper Kupp

• Drake London

• Kenneth Walker III

• One Early 1st Round Rookie Pick

Tua Tagovailoa saw a terrifying string of head injuries derail a phenomenal 2022 campaign. The addition of new head coach Mike McDaniel alongside supercharged speed demon Tyreek Hill set the young franchise quarterback up for a season of success. Tua met those offerings with blazing production, averaging 24.7 PPG (QB3) in healthy starts before his second concussion. Upon return, Tua struggled to find the same consistency but still managed to finish the season averaging 18.4 PPG (QB9).

Everything is in place for Tua to surgically pick apart opposing defenses in 2023 and any injury concerns should be mitigated by his current startup cost. All attempts to downgrade Tua’s talent are baseless and unjustified. He led the NFL in yards per attempt (8.9), deep ball completion percentage (50.0%), red zone completion percentage (65.3%), and passer rating vs man coverage (117.8) in 2022. Tua also ranked top three in EPA (149.4/QB3), passer rating vs zone coverage (105.8/QB3), and pressured completion percentage (49.2%/QB2) last season. Simply put, Tua is amongst the most accurate quarterbacks in NFL history, let alone active in the league today. If he remains healthy for 17 games, he will surely finish within the top-8 quarterbacks in both overall finish and PPG.

Looking forward, not much has changed on the Dolphins' offense to enter 2023. The team has made aggressive efforts to improve the offensive line, attempting to keep their franchise quarterback upright and healthy while also adding even more speed to the offense with the addition of rookie running back De’Von Achane. Hill enters the 2023 campaign fresh off a WR1 overall finish with star third-year wideout Jaylen Waddle opposite. Lastly, McDaniel brings an entire season of head coaching experience to the table to implement his masterful offense. The system and weapons are placed in a prime position to create a symphony of success. Tua simply needs to conduct the orchestra.

Drake London - WR - Atlanta Falcons

Age: 21.9

Sleeper ADP: WR15- 4.03/40th Overall

KeepTradeCut Rank: WR12 - 3.07/31st Overall

KeepTradeCut Value: 5655

Adjacent Assets:

• Travis Etienne

• Cooper Kupp

• Kenneth Walker III

• Austin Ekeler

• Josh Jacobs

• DK Metcalf

• One Early-Mid 1st Round Rookie Pick

Drake London entered the NFL with an elite prospect profile, boasting a historically elite true freshman breakout and prototypical size. He then solidified his Alpha game-changer status with 8th overall capital, proceeding to put up the highest single-season target share for a rookie in NFL History. The laughable inefficiency of mediocre journeyman Marcus Mariota coupled with the Neanderthal-era play-calling of head coach Arthur Smith unsurprisingly limited London’s production ceiling despite boasting historic analytic averages. Neither of those previously mentioned negatives should be viewed as long-term negatives, yet London’s preposterous evaluation at WR15 overall suggests the Dynasty market believes otherwise.

One of those two factors has already been removed from the occasion as the Falcons have moved on from Mariota, starting second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder in his place for the 2023 season. Even the most menial increases in target value could propel London’s sophomore stats into an elite tier.

London’s peripheral metrics are off the chart and could theoretically improve further during his second season. In 2022 the rookie managed a 29.4% target share (WR5), and a 32.4% target rate (WR2) with 2.40 Yards Per Route (WR11) and 2.1 Yards Per Team Pass Attempt. Unfortunately, his counting stats did not follow as London finished the year with 117 targets but only 72 receptions for 866 yards and four touchdowns (10.5 PPG/WR43).

Dynasty is all about the long con. Stealing an asset like London away from managers at his current cost should be considered grand larceny, but the market has left the vaults open with no alarm set. 

Javonte Williams - RB - Denver Broncos

Age: 23.2

Sleeper ADP: RB15 - 5.08/56th Overall

KeepTradeCut Rank: RB16 - 6.07/67th Overall

KeepTradeCut Value: 4263

Adjacent Assets:

• D.J. Moore

• J.K Dobbins

• George Pickens

• Treylon Burks

• Derrick Henry

• Kenny Pickett

• One Late 1st Round Rookie Pick or 2x Early 2nd Round Rookie Picks

Entering the fifth round of startup drafts, managers should be well aware of their projected build and roster trajectory. After the top 50 assets are secured, there are generally two directions you can take your build; Value or Production.

Javonte Williams currently represents the cheapest running back with a three-down workhorse skillset on the Dynasty market. In 2022, Williams showcased that skill set, even while sharing the field with Melvin Gordon. The younger back averaged seven targets and 13 carries a game before being sidelined in Week 4. A justifiable dip in consensus value stems from a disastrous knee injury that cut the young running back’s 2022 season short. Luckily, knee injuries are not the death knell to running back careers that they used to be. Williams is reportedly ahead of his injury timeline, making full cuts in training camp, and is expected to make a full recovery before the end of the 2023 season. 

Although a downward swing in production upon return is expected, the upside swing once Williams returns to full speed is well worth the current acquisition cost. There is not a single running back outside of the top 16 consensus rankings, save for Williams, that has a justifiable and foreseeable path to top-10 positional value and production.

Williams is still only 23 years old, leaving four more seasons of high-quality production before he reaches the dreaded “age cliff” for players in Dynasty at his position. There is plenty of time for this gamble to pay off. 

Trey Lance - QB - San Francisco 49ers

TheColdWire.com

Age: 23.1

Sleeper ADP: QB19 - 6.10/70th Overall

KeepTradeCut Rank: QB26 - 10.5/113th Overall

KeepTradeCut Value: 3400

Adjacent Assets:

• Kenny Pickett

• Jared Goff

• Terry McLaurin

• Calvin Ridley

• Elijah Moore

• Mac Jones

• 2x Early 2nd Round Rookie Picks

Betting on Trey Lance to be a starting quarterback is like betting on rain in Florida. It’s only a matter of time before it pays off. Per Ian Miller (@dynasty_im), there have been 23 quarterbacks selected in the Top 5 picks since 2006. Of those quarterbacks, Lance remains the only one to have started in fewer than 7 games. For context, players like Mitch Trubisky, Sam Darnold, Blake Bortles, and Marcus Mariota have all started a minimum of 50 games throughout their careers despite the disastrous results. 

The leash for Lance’s career is as long as the Golden Gate Bridge. 2 years remain on the first-round draft pick’s rookie contract. Draft capital alone suggests that Lance will be a season-long starter at some point during his NFL tenure. When (not if) that time comes, the current cost evaluation of the Konami Code quarterback will be laughed at in hindsight.

Marquise Brown - WR - Arizona Cardinals

ArizonaSports.com

Age: 26.1

Sleeper ADP: WR34 - 7.11/83rd Overall

KeepTradeCut Rank: WR35 - 8.01/85th Overall

KeepTradeCut Value: 4002

Adjacent Assets:

• Jordan Love

• Miles Sanders

• Amari Cooper

• Christian Kirk

• Zach Charbonnet

• Rachaad White

• 2x 2nd Round Rookie Picks

Marquise Brown saw a career year in 2022 come crashing down due to a catastrophic foot injury that saw the wideout miss five games. Once he returned, the Cardinals' offense had imploded at the hands of shotty play-calling and another disastrous injury, this time to star quarterback Kyler Murray.

Before being injured, the man they call “Hollywood” ranked as the WR5 in PPG, averaging 19.74 PPR PPG. Brown was on pace for 122 receptions, 1374 yards, and nine touchdowns based on his pre-injury per-game averages. Despite a disastrous second half of 2022, Brown finished with 67 receptions for 709 yards on 107 targets with three touchdowns, averaging 13.0 PPG (WR27). In the wildly unlikely scenario that Brown maintains his averages from the previous season, he would still be an undervalued asset at WR35.

The market is over-adjusting in a panic. Murray’s injury will likely keep him out for the first half of the season, leaving Colt McCoy to take snaps under center. Although a decline in target value is worth noting, the drastic dip in Brown’s current ADP has seemingly not considered the departure of DeAndre Hopkins.

Brown stands alone atop the Cardinals' depth chart as the only wide receiver to secure more than 75 targets in a single season. The only other player on the roster to achieve such a feat is Zach Ertz who enters his age 32 season fresh off a complete ACL tear and reconstructive surgery. Projecting 140(+) targets for a healthy Brown is conservative. The sheer volume attached to a player of Brown’s talent and acumen overrides any efficiency concerns surrounding the Cardinals' bottom-tier offense.

Rachaad White - RB - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Age: 24.2

Sleeper ADP: RB21 - 8.01/85th Overall

KeepTradeCut Rank: RB24 - 9.04/100th Overall

KeepTradeCut Value: 3668

Adjacent Assets:

• Kirk Cousins

• Cam Akers

• Pat Freiermuth

• De’Von Achane

• Kendre Miller

• Derek Carr

• One Premium 2nd-Round Rookie Pick

Chase Edmons, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Patrick Laird, (R) Sean Tucker. Those are the current active running backs on the Buccaneers' depth chart alongside Rachaad White. Entering his second season, White is staring down the pipeline of a monstrous opportunity share with no real competition to deter his path to production. 

As a rookie, White saw just 129 rush attempts for 481 yards and a disappointing 3.7 YPC. Encouragingly, the rookie received 58 targets (RB12), securing 50 receptions for 290 yards, rounding his inaugural season out with 8.2 PPG (RB42).

A positive receiving profile has always been the calling card to success for the promising dual-threat back. White boasts a stunning analytic profile from his days at Arizona State where he led the team in both rushing and receiving production. His 54 targets and 244 routes run as a rookie will surely increase now that veteran lead-back Leonard Fournette is no longer in the picture.

Further benefiting White’s projected production for 2023 is the Buccaneers' current quarterback situation. Baker Mayfield is expected to be the starter for much of the 2023 season, with third-year quarterback Kyle Trask backing up the veteran. Mayfield’s inability to push the ball downfield with a high propensity for check-downs and short-yardage dump-offs position White as a primary target on the offense as opposed to a tertiary weapon.

Volume is king in fantasy football, and the Buccaneers have the dial turned up to 11 on their second-year running back.

Diontae Johnson - WR - Pittsburgh Steelers

SteelersNow.com

Age: 27.0

Sleeper ADP: WR37 - 8.09/93rd Overall

KeepTradeCut Rank: WR37 - 8.07/91st Overall

KeepTradeCut Value: 3871

Adjacent Assets:

• Derek Carr

• Isaih Pacheco

• De’Von Achane

• Brock Purdy

• Elijah Moore

• Geno Smith

• One Early 2nd Round Rookie Pick

The only justifiable reason for Diontae Johnson’s current Dynasty evaluation is if your 2023 projections have the Steelers wideout scoring zero touchdowns for two consecutive seasons. Positive regression in the scoring department is a near guarantee for the elite separator. In 2022, Diontae Johnson set the single-season record for most targets without scoring at 147. Johnson’s 147 targets also marked the third consecutive season in which the perennially underrated wideout secured over 140 total targets, joining Davante Adams and Stefon Diggs as the only wide receivers to secure >140 targets in three consecutive seasons since 2020. Even last year, in what was arguably his worst statistical season since joining the league, Johnson averaged 10.9 PPG (WR39) without a single touchdown.

Furthermore, Johnson is entering his prime at merely 27 years old and should greatly benefit from the continued development of second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett. Managers do not need a monumental ascension to stardom from the Steelers signal-caller for the current cost investment on Johnson to pay off. Once Johnson’s career scoring averages regress to the norm, his production and value will insulate well above his current startup ADP.

Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at BRoto Fantasy Football.

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By Matt Ward