The Chargers' 2022 season came crashing down after blowing a historic 27-0 lead to the Jaguars in the AFC Wild Card matchup. Tired of complying with mediocrity, head coach Brandon Staley and the Chargers' front office look to shake up the offense.
BoltsFromTheBlue
2022 Chargers Offensive Ranks:
Plays Per Game: 67.9 (2nd)
Pass%: 63.8 (2nd)
Run%: 36.2 (31st)
PPG: 23.4 (12th)
Chargers head coach Brandon Staley was once heralded as a pioneer of implementing football analytics, showcasing an aggressive pass-first mentality and propensity to go for it on fourth down. Unfortunately, Staley’s philosophies have recently been held hostage by the creator of the “mini” west coast offense, offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi.
The long-time Saints coordinator and quarterback’s coach, Lombardi’s dink-and-dunk passing system worked wonders for an aging Drew Brees but greatly held back the generational arm talent of franchise quarterback Justin Herbert. The Chargers gunslinger played through cracked ribs for much of the 2022 season but had his ceiling capped by more than just injuries. Herbert went from ranking 8th in yards per attempt (7.5), 10th in air yards per attempt (7.6), and 10th in yards per completion (11.3) in 2021 to 23rd in yards per attempt (6.8), 18th in air yards per attempt (6.9), and 29th in yards per completion (9.9) in 2022 while under Lombardi’s tutelage.
The good news for Chargers fans entering 2023 is that the hiring of former Dallas Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore should help get the offense back on track. With Moore in town, Herbert should be free to toss the rock further than a depth of 7.6 yards downfield, allowing for the young star quarterback to produce fantasy points at an elite rate once again. For reference, Dak Prescott was 9th in yards per attempt (7.3), 10th in air yards per attempt (7.3), and tied for 12th in yards per completion (11.0) in 2022 under Kellen Moore.
Larry Brown Sports
2022 Cowboys Offensive Ranks
Plays Per Game: 63.9 (5th)
Pass%: 51.1 (20th)
Run%: 36.2 (9th)
PPG: 27.5 (4th)
A more balanced offensive approach with a deeper route tree at Herbert’s disposal should lead the fourth-year quarterback back to producing top-5 positional averages. Not only will Herbert be operating in a fantasy-friendly offensive system, but he will also have a wide array of elite weapons at his disposal.
The beneficiaries of Herbert’s high-valued passes include, but are not limited to, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and newly added first-round wide receiver Quentin Johnston.
Ekeler finished the 2022 season with career-best scoring numbers, averaging 21.9 PPR PPG as the RB1 Overall. The dual-threat’s incredible per-touch efficiency will always lend a game-changing security blanket for Herbert’s production.
Ageless Wonder and five-time Pro Bowler Keenan Allen started the 2022 season with a nagging hamstring strain, causing him to miss seven games from Week 1 through Week 9. Allen reminded everyone of his sensational slot prowess as he averaged eight targets per game upon return, including 4 games with 11+ targets. Allen finished the season averaging 16.4 PPG (WR11), catching 66 passes for 754 yards and four touchdowns; all four of which came post-injury in the final six weeks of the 2022 season
Big-Bodied deep threat dealt with injuries as well in 2022, suiting up for a total of 13 contests. Williams will reprise his role as a jump ball specialist in 2023 but could quickly be supplanted by the newest member of the Chargers offense as Quentin Johnston possesses several of the same positive traits as Williams. Furthermore, Williams has yet to show up to OTAs, allowing for the young rookie to establish himself as the number two option alongside Allen as they practice reps with the first-team offense. There is no definitive answer whether “Big” Mike is not at OTAs due to injury or contractual issues yet it certainly is cause for concern or at least a raised eyebrow.
The last piece to the Chargers' offensive puzzle comes in the form of a 21st-overall first-round pick. Johnston could gain a big role early on with the absence of Williams who ironically serves as a top player comparison for the rookie. Both players command eerily similar, yet limited, route trees with incredible jump ball timing coupled with towering size and great athleticism. Johnston encouragingly adds a vast toolbox of sensational after-the-catch moves as a potential YAC monster, a skill set that Williams has been greatly lacking throughout his career. If all else is equal, Johnston’s open-field ball skills trump his veteran counterpart by a country mile. Coach Moore has already begun singing Johnston’s praises in OTAs, referring to his tremendous range, deep-field ball tracking skills, and YAC ability.
There should be no concern for lack of volume for Johnston in his inaugural season. From 2019 to 2022, Williams earned 85 or more targets in each season, producing very respectable, albeit inconsistent numbers. In 2022, the Chargers allocated 378 targets to Williams, Allen, and Ekeler alone. With the Chargers’ high pass rate/plays per game, a supercharged offensive scheme, and a fully healthy Herbert, Johnston could produce at a useful rate immediately and often throughout the 2023 season. Draft Quentin Johnston with confidence in all fantasy football formats.
Quentin Johnston ADP:
Fantasy Pros ADP: 121.1 Overall
Underdog ADP: 81.3 Overall
If you would like to learn more about Quentin Johnston, you can read Matt Ward’s (@PsychWardFF) complete rookie profile here: Rookie Profile: WR Quentin Johnston
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By Clay Jones
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.