2023 Dynasty Market Evaluation: Overpriced ADPs

The very nature of the instantaneous fantasy news feed has made the dynasty market more reactionary and volatile than ever before, especially during the white incessant noise of offseason hot takes. Once the proverbial petrol is poured, and Twitter fingers snap to ignite, player values can burn to the ground overnight. Value changes of this nature cause a ripple effect across the market. For every step up the ladder, someone must move down and vice versa.

This will not be your typical “Buy/Sell” advice column. We are going to hone in on distinct seismic shifts in the dynasty community, provide an explanation as to why these changes are happening, and tell how you can exploit said changes to benefit your roster. If a player drops or raises drastically in value, we may suggest a transaction. However, the primary goal is to understand how to adjust within the market and avoid getting swept up in the whirlwind of overreaction.

Managing a Dynasty roster is about building long-lasting success in the chaotic and unpredictable landscape of fantasy football. The idea should be to give yourself as many assets/bargaining chips as possible so that when you move all in, the deck is stacked in your favor. “We are card counters at the blackjack table, and we’re going to turn the odds at the casino.”

Today, we look at some of the top overpriced assets in Dynasty, drawing unbiased values from Sleeper ADP and KeepTradeCut in an attempt to exploit certain market discrepancies. As always, we will be viewing these players and values through a Superflex lens.

Garrett Wilson - WR - New York Jets

NewYorkJets.com

Age: 22.9

Sleeper ADP: WR4 - 2.03/14th Overall

KeepTradeCut Rank: WR3 - 1.11/11th Overall

KeepTradeCut Value: 6986

Adjacent Assets:

• CeeDee Lamb

• Justin Fields

• A.J. Brown

• Jaylen Waddle

• Anthony Richardson

• Amon-Ra St.Brown

• Two x Premium 1st-Round Rookie Draft Picks

Garrett Wilson stood at the top of my rookie wide receiver tier in his respective class, living up to all expectations in his rookie season despite quarterback play ranging from horrendous to mediocre in the forms of Zach Wilson, Mike White and the husk of Joe Flacco. An upgrade at quarterback to future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers has caused understandable market swings in the sophomore standout's favor. Nevertheless, Wilson’s current top-tier evaluation poses some interesting value debates.

Wilson led the Jets in targets as a rookie, commanding 147 opportunities through the air with a 24.9% target share (WR21) and 26.9% target rate (WR16). He levied those targets into 83 receptions for 1103 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 13.0 PPR PPG (WR30). Wilson’s overall counting stats place him in an elite group of historic rookie producers but his peripheral analytics and PPG averages paint a softer range of outcomes. 

For further perspective, Chris Olave recorded a higher PPG average (13.2) with virtually identical efficiency ratings while boasting a higher target share (26.7% - WR 15) and target rate (29.3% - WR10) on a much higher aDOT (14.0 YDS compared to Wilson’s 10.7) but is valued well below his former Ohio State running mate.

Historically, both Wilson and Olave should see increases in production as they topped every perceivable threshold in their inaugural season. With that said, the uptick favors the latter prospect as Olave outpaced Wilson in virtually all categories.

There is no denying Wilson’s talent as a true WR1 at the NFL level at only 23 years old. There are numerous justifiable reasons to rank the second-year star highly. The glaring issue is obviously how highly said ranking has settled.

Following Justin Jefferson’s historic rookie season, the Vikings star wideout’s ADP leveled out as the WR4 overall. Although impressive, Wilson’s rookie year falls well short of the feats achieved by the reigning WR1 in Dynasty formats. Crowning Wilson as a top-12 overall Dynasty asset leaves little to no wiggle room for investment risk. The second-year wideout will need to perform at a WR5 PPG level or higher for multiple consecutive seasons for his lofty price tag to pay off. At his current cost, the slightest consensus dip in value for Wilson could immediately crash the stocks and roster value of all managers investing at raised prices.

Anthony Richardson - QB - Indianapolis Colts

Age: 21.1

Sleeper ADP: WR4 - 2.02/13th Overall

KeepTradeCut Rank: QB9 - 2.04/16th Overall

KeepTradeCut Value: 6285

Adjacent Assets:

• Justin Fields

• Amon-Ra St.Brown

• Breece Hall

• Chris Olave

• Deshaun Watson

• Jonathan Taylor

• One Premium 1st Round Rookie Draft Pick + One Random 1st Round Rookie Draft Pick

We have extensively covered Anthony Richardson’s meteoric value rise during the NFL Draft process, finalizing the Colts' rookie quarterback Dynasty Ranking in a shared tier with 2023’s first overall pick Bryce Young.

There has never been a quarterback in the history of the NFL with Richardson’s raw athletic upside. His perfect Relative Athletic Score (RAS) of 10.00 removes all hyperbole from the previous statement, solidifying Richardson as the most athletic quarterback in NFL History. 

Unfortunately, his unlimited upside as a rusher is equaled by his extremely unpolished ability as a passer. While at Florida, Richardson posted accuracy ratings of 50.0%, 59.4% and 53.8% with cPOE ratings below 50.0% in all three seasons with an AY/A of 7.6, making him quite literally the most inaccurate and inefficient passer to ever be selected in the top 5 of an NFL Draft.

Rushing upside alone is not nearly enough to propel a quarterback into a top-5 Dynasty ranking in both on-field production and market value. Take Justin Fields for example. The Bears signal-caller was already in his second season when he set the single-season rushing record for a quarterback with 1143 yards (8 TD), averaging a league-leading 14.73 PPG in rushing production alone. Fields finished as the QB5 in PPG, averaging a total of 20.5 per, falling 5.1 PPG behind the QB1 in Jalen Hurts. The passing production needed to bridge the gap between a flash-in-the-pan QB1 season and a perennial top-rated Dynasty quarterback is truly game-changing. There is very little to suggest that Richardson possesses those traits, placing him in more of an outlier tier than a risk-free asset of preposterous value.

Richardson will likely need a long grace period to get acclimated to the NFL and there are no guarantees he will ever meet his lofty projections as the QB1 overall.

A positive pivot strategy would be trading the rights to Richardson for Kyler Murray and a premium first-round pick as nearly a full round separates their current market value. Waiting on Murray’s injury is akin to the much-needed development window Richardson will undoubtedly go through while cementing your roster with a proven top-5 PPG producer once Murray returns.

Jonathan Taylor - RB - Indianapolis Colts

ChatSports

Age: 24.4

Sleeper ADP: RB4- 2.08/20th Overall

KeepTradeCut Rank: RB3 - 2.09/21tst Overall

KeepTradeCut Value: 5860

Adjacent Assets:

• Breece Hall

• Chris Olave

• Christian McCaffrey

• Bryce Young

• DeVonta Smith

• Jahmyr Gibbs

• One Premium 1st Round Rookie Pick + One 2nd Round Rookie Pick

Trade Jonathan Taylor for Jahmyr Gibbs plus a pick and laugh your way to the bank. We have preached about the value volatility of the running back position on numerous occasions. No one is safe from the treacherous waves of market changes when it comes to evaluating Dynasty running backs. Jonathan Taylor is just one season removed from a campaign where he topped all fantasy assets as THE RB1 overall yet has been pushed down the market by a player that has yet to play a snap in the NFL and a second-year running back entering the 2023 season fresh off a complete ACL tear.

By no means is this a decimation of the player himself. Taylor is amongst the most talented running backs the NFL has seen in the last decade and provides incredible value to the Colts roster. Managers simply need to acknowledge that his current price point which places him well above players like Jahmyr Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey and even Saquon Barkley is simply a bad investment to make when attempting to secure potential value increases and top-tier production.

During Taylor’s run as the RB1 in 2021, he posted averages of 21.9 PPR PPG which would mark the lowest RB1 average since 2008. There is an argument to be made that Taylor’s absolute peak is still well below the upside of a player like Jahmyr Gibbs who was drafted 12th overall by the Lions and possesses one of the greatest collegiate receiving profiles in NFL history. Alas, nearly a full round separates Taylor’s ADP from the Lions’ rookie.

To add more weight to the Gibbs debate, only three running backs in NFL history have been selected in the top 20 with multiple collegiate seasons with a receiving market share above 10.0%. Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Reggie Bush. Jahmyr Gibbs has more than double the collegiate career receiving market share of all three players listed above at 21.7%. All three of the players mentioned above had at least a 20.0% target share and a 40.0% rushing share in their rookie season. Oh, and all three were also valued as the RB1 overall in dynasty ADP at one point in their careers.

Furthermore, with the Colts drafting a run-first quarterback in Anthony Richardson and their offensive line decaying from the strength of years past, there is a narrative to be had that Taylor will never reach that peak again in his career.

C.J. Stroud - QB - Houston Texans

Age: 21.7

Sleeper ADP: QB14- 3.02/26th Overall

KeepTradeCut Rank: QB12 - 3.06/30th Overall

KeepTradeCut Value: 5482

Adjacent Assets:

• Kyle Pitts

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba

• Kyler Murray

• Dak Prescott

• Saquon Barkley

• Jahmyr Gibbs

• One Premium 1st Round Rookie Pick + One 2nd Round Rookie Pick

C.J. Stroud landing with the Texans with the 2nd overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft was largely viewed as a positive for their new franchise quarterback. Stroud was largely viewed as the best pure passer in the 2023 NFL Draft class, exhibiting sensational touch and ball placement on his throws. Although Stroud lacked the elite arm strength of the top-rated pocket passing predecessors, his prototypical frame and resume of collegiate success cemented him as the clear number two behind Bryce Young.

The Texans' subsequent selection of Will Anderson at 3rd overall via a blockbuster trade with the Cardinals quickly soured that outlook, muddying Stroud’s path to elite production with what can largely be considered to be the weakest supporting cast of his entire football career. Stroud has always been surrounded by elite receiving talent while under the helm at Ohio State. The rookie quarterback now enters a run-focused offense with minimal depth at wideout and a dearth of NFL Draft capital to address the issue. Although it has vastly improved from last season, the Texans do not have a competitive roster and will now be without their 2024 first-round draft pick. The team and organization have made a conscious decision to address the defensive side of the football, giving Stroud a longer leash for developmental failure without a competent offense around him.

To meet expectations, the former Ohio State standout will need to hit his peak range of outcomes as a pure-passer with limited rushing upside whilst throwing to a weak supporting cast.

His Overall evaluation as the QB14 Overall feels much more palatable until you start analyzing the assets ranked below him at the position. Stroud Shares a tier with elite producers such as Kyler Murray and Dak Prescott. Conversely, quarterbacks like Tua Tagovailoa and Daniel Jones fall well past Stroud’s ADP despite all four quarterbacks listed achieving top 12 seasons in PPG with better supporting casts than the Texans are offering Stroud.

The Texans' new franchise quarterback has insulated value as a top-5 NFL Draft selection solidifying him as the Rookie 1.05 in Superflex leagues but the road to relevant production will be a tough one. It is unlikely that the Texans will be a premier destination for wideouts in 2024 and their lack of draft capital to solidify the position in upcoming drafts is concerning.

There is no clear or immediate path to Stroud increasing in value unless he ascends into a tier of rookie production that has only been met by the most extreme outliers.

Dalton Kincaid - TE - Buffalo Bills

The Bills traded up for the rights to select Dalton Kincaid at 25th Overall, cementing the young tight end as the number one rookie at the position in the 2023 NFL Draft. Kincaid profiles best as a big-bodied slot receiver for the Bills, increasing his range of outcomes and subsequent rookie value as a first-round pick. It is worth noting that there have only been three rookie tight ends in NFL history to secure more than 880 yards in their inaugural season.

Expecting immediate production from Kincaid is foolish. Nevertheless, his immense potential as an elite receiver in a position that scarcely produces game-changing players has caused Kincaid to be placed in an anticipatory tier well above several established producers and young tight ends with similar upside. 

There is massive value separation between the tiers at tight end. Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and Kyle Pitts are all valued as top 36 assets. T.J. Hockenson stands alone as the last top 50 assets at the position with an ADP of 4.09. Two full rounds separate Hockenson from George Kittle (6.05) and Dallas Goedert (6.10) with Kincaid rounding out another value gap with an ADP of 7.06. The perennially slept-on and established producer Pat Freiermuth drops to 8.01 with no less than a 2nd-Round Rookie Pick worth of liquidity separating the prospects for no justifiable reason.

Kincaid meets no historical thresholds other than draft capital that suggest he should be valued three rounds ahead of rookie TE2 Michael Mayer who happens to boast similar athleticism with a collegiate profile that shatters all of Kincaid’s highest production totals.

Rookie tight ends should be viewed as a long-term/high-upside investment. When their initial draft cost exceeds the logical ceiling of year one production, the investment no longer becomes worth the risk.

The harsh reality is that Kincaid will likely take several years to meet his ceiling, following an often overlooked but historic trend of late breakouts at the position. His current value as a top-8 producer will likely only recede into his rookie season and beyond. The only perceivable path to an increase in positional value is if the Bills rookie produces a season-long PPG average greater than the players ranked both above and below him.

Greg Dulcich is a name I like to throw around for late-round tight end pivots in lieu of reaching for a similar range of outcomes in Kincaid. Dulcich is an excellent downfield route runner and an after-the-catch monster who commanded an impressive target share of 17.2% (TE13) in his rookie season on an aDOT of 10.6 yards (TE3). Per Ian Miller, there have only been three tight ends in NFL history to surpass such thresholds; Vernon Davis, Kyle Pitts, and Evan Engram. Surprisingly, Duclich can be drafted in the 12th round on average (12.03) with a shocking evaluation at TE16 overall.

Again, this is not an indictment against Kincaid as a prospect. He has all the tools and traits that could turn him into a bonafide Dynasty star. Moreover, his inflated cost comes with a heeded warning to managers engaging in the negative process of paying peak value for the unknown when there is infinite historic data that proves it to be one of diminishing returns.

Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at BRoto Fantasy Football.

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By Matt Ward