Dynasty startup season is in full swing. With the 2023 NFL Draft in the rearview and rookie ADP becoming a fixture in the player pool, these rankings will provide managers with an in-depth linear ranking for every draft spot. From 1.01 through 1.12, this article will show where the value is to be had.
Before we get started, I felt it pertinent to be transparent in the process that allows me to finalize my rankings with confidence.
Yahoo
TRUST THE PROCESS:
Remove Bias
I attempt to eliminate bias and fandom from my process altogether. Every player is put through the same rigorous standard to decipher a proper ranking founded on insulated value and current production.
Market Consensus
Player value and rankings are consistently cross-referenced with all expert consensus rankings on major platforms. Orders and values are adjusted to reflect a combination of market consensus and personal evaluation.
Historical ADP Data
Historical analytics are used to reference the “stickiness” of a player’s ranking based on age, production, and previous ADP. Year one ADP can greatly affect a player’s congruent future value.
Future Outlook/Range of Outcomes
Rankings will favor players in stable team situations with a strong future outlook. The range of outcomes (R.O.O) is based on historical statistical thresholds and cross-compared with several reference points.
Rookie Rankings
Rookies are evaluated based on collective metrics of college production, athletic scores, combined stats, and draft/landing spot. Talent will always reign supreme when ranking rookies. Advanced college analytics are self-adjusted and cross-referenced with Pahowdy’s CFB Database for accuracy.
As per usual we will be viewing these rankings through the lens of a 12-team Superflex/Tight End Premium format. For the first installment, let's start at the top of the draft.
ROUND 1
The first round of upcoming rookie drafts is stacked with top-end talent but lacks some of the positional depth of years past despite being loaded at the running back position. Please keep in mind players do not necessarily have to reach their production peak/ceiling to help increase the value of your roster and return on investment. There are more than a few names in the first round that can directly benefit your dynasty teams, whether from a market value or a production standpoint.
1.01 - Bijan Robinson - RB
Atlanta Falcons: Round 1 - 8th Overall
The Dynasty RB1 in all formats tops all consensus rankings as the number one overall pick in rookie drafts, regardless of format. Bijan Robinson landing with the Falcons as a top-10 pick did little to shift the predisposed notion of the generational running back’s overall value. Finding a home within head coach Arthur Smith’s run-first offense is a dream scenario for all those invested in the young running back.
<Tier Break>
1.02 previously marked an equal three-player tier with Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson and C.J. Stroud presenting a similar range of outcomes before the 2023 NFL Draft. After the draft commenced, the tier became more succinct with only two quarterbacks remaining.
1.02 - Bryce Young - QB
Carolina Panthers: Round 1 - 1st Overall
The Panthers made flaccid attempts to disguise their top priority prospect after trading up to acquire the number one overall pick from the Bears prior to the 2023 NFL Draft. The smoke and mirror show was laughably snuffed out as the Panthers made no hesitation to select former Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Bryce Young from Alabama. Despite his miniature frame, Young possesses elite traits in all categories with an intangible processing of the game that appears years ahead of his peers. The newly minted first overall selection has the safest floor of any quarterback prospect in this class coupled with an elite ceiling of top-10 production.
1.03 - Anthony Richardson - QB
NFL
Indianapolis Colts: Round 1 - 4th Overall
Anthony Richardson has a range of outcomes that could reach the pinnacle of QB1 overall in both production and market value. The athleticism and red flags are both well-documented. Although the upside is an infinite intangible, Richardson’s low floor as a passer warrants enough concern to rank him below Young at 1.03.
<Tier Break>
The first significant change from our Pre-Draft Dynasty Rookie Rankings occurs at the second tier break of round one. The next two prospects were greatly affected by the outcome of the 2023 NFL Draft and the subsequent roster movements within their respective franchises.
1.04 - Jahmyr Gibbs - RB
Detroit Lions: Round 1 - 12th Overall
One of many shocking selections in the 2023 NFL Draft occurred at pick 12 when the Lions added to a seemingly stacked running back room of David Montgomery and D’Andre Swift. The selection of former Georgia Tech and Alabama standout Jahmyr Gibbs solidified an astounding collegiate profile with top-15 NFL Draft capital. The Lions soon shipped Swift to the Eagles thereafter, cementing Gibbs as a franchise cornerstone within one of the NFL’s best offenses.
1.05 - C.J. Stroud - QB
Houston Texans: Round 1 - 2nd Overall
C.J. Stroud landing with the Texans with the 2nd overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft was largely viewed as a positive for their new franchise quarterback. The Texans' subsequent selection of Will Anderson at 3rd overall via a blockbuster trade with the Cardinals quickly soured that outlook. Stroud has always been surrounded by elite receiving talent throughout his collegiate career and now enters a run-focused offense with minimal depth at wideout and a dearth of NFL Draft capital to address the issue. To meet expectations, Stroud will need to hit his peak range of outcomes as a pure-passer with limited rushing upside whilst throwing to a weak supporting cast. His insulated value as a top-5 NFL Draft selection solidifies Stroud as the Rookie 1.05 in Superflex leagues but the road to relevant production will be a tough one.
<Tier Break>
One player remains entrenched as the undeniable WR1 in the 2023 draft class despite seeing a noteworthy value drop post-NFL Draft.
1.06 Jaxon Smith-Njigba - WR
Seattle Seahawks: Round 1 - 20th Overall
Jaxon Smith-Njigba deservedly stays in a tier of his own as the rookie WR1 but swaps spots with Jahmyr Gibbs as the top skill player selected after Bijan Robinson. Smith-Njigba was selected a little later than expected as managers were hoping for top-15 draft capital to bolster an incredibly impressive collegiate profile. Falling to pick 20 certainly does not diminish Smith-Njigba’s upside but being selected eight picks after Gibbs has caused a ripple effect on the dynasty market.
<Tier Break>
For the first time in NFL history, four wide receivers were selected consecutively in the first round. The importance of NFL Draft capital cannot be understated when rounding out your rookie profiles. With that said, the equality of investment used by NFL teams in the top four rookie wide receivers allows us to maintain our Pre-Draft rankings based on the strength and risk of their collegiate profiles from a fantasy-only perspective.
1.07 - Jordan Addison - WR
Minnesota Vikings: Round 1 - 23rd Overall
The Vikings hit the lottery with Jordan Addison falling past three consecutive wide receiver selections. The former Biletnikoff Winner will slot in (quite literally) next to Justin Jefferson as a Day 1 starter and number two pass-catching option on the Vikings offense. Learning alongside the league’s top route-running technician is a dream scenario for the young Addison as he possesses several of the same positive traits as Jefferson, merely in a smaller frame.
1.08 - Quentin Johnston - WR
Dallas Morning News
Los Angeles Chargers: Round 1 - 21st Overall
The Chargers saw a Mike Williams clone and did not hesitate to call in the selection. Much like Williams, Quentin Johnston carries a prototypical frame at 6’3” and 215 lbs with incredible athleticism and a propensity to dominate in contested catch scenarios. Also akin to Williams, Johnston profiles best as a big-bodied deep threat with a limited target share as the second receiving option. Although Johnston has a standalone WR1 upside in his range of outcomes, superseding Keenan Allen and Mike Williams is a lofty and unlikely task for the TCU product in his first NFL season.
1.09 - Zay Flowers - WR
Baltimore Ravens: Round 1 - 22nd Overall
Zay Flowers jumped from Rookie 1.12 to Rookie 1.09 following the 2023 NFL Draft. Flowers' first-round landing spot with the Ravens has historically put past wide receivers in a poor position to succeed in the team’s run-heavy offense. The influx of Todd Munken as offensive coordinator coupled with the selection of Flowers in the first round should tell managers that this new-look offense is going to increase their passing percentages by a significant amount in 2023 and beyond. Flowers could easily rise ahead of Rashod Bateman as the team’s number-one wideout but will still need to compete with the presence of the target-hogging Mark Andrews if he hopes to secure a target share above 20.0% in his inaugural season.
<Tier Break>
There is a massive tier break following the 1.09 selection in the 2023 Rookie Drafts. Although the players listed below present positive upside as mainstays on your dynasty roster, their paths to relevance are not as paved as the previously mentioned prospects.
1.10 - Dalton Kincaid - TE
Sportsnet
Buffalo Bills: Round 1 - 25th Overall
The Bills traded up for the rights to select Dalton Kincaid at 25th Overall, cementing the young tight end as the number one player at the position in the 2023 NFL Draft. Kincaid profiles best as a big-bodied slot receiver for the Bills, increasing his range of outcomes and subsequent rookie value as a first-round pick. It is worth noting that there have only been three rookie tight ends in NFL history to secure more than 880 yards in their inaugural season. Expecting immediate production from Kincaid is foolish. Nevertheless, his immense potential as an elite receiver in a position that scarcely produces game-changing players is well worth the investment.
1.11 - Zach Charbonnet - RB
Seattle Seahawks: Round 2 - 52nd Overall
It should not be considered a “hot take” to say that Zach Charbonnet may very well be the best running back on the Seahawks roster. Charbonnet will compete with second-year Kenneth Walker III after the starting running back put up a stellar rookie season in 2022. Charbonnet steps in as an immediate upgrade on third downs, boasting a much better pass-blocking and receiving profile than the undersized Walker. The new addition to the Seahawks backfield also boasts a thicker frame than his counterpart, weighing in at 6’0” and 214 lbs, allowing for Charbonnet to steal early-down and goal line work as well. Unfortunately, both players will likely cap each other’s volume enough to cause a frustrating nightmare when evaluating who to favor on their rosters.
<Tier Break>
There are truly only 11 prospects worthy of Round 1 Rookie Draft capital in dynasty leagues this season. The tier from 1.12 to 2.04 melds together as one of equal value, risk, and upside. Trading back for even a minimal value gain is a highly suggested strategy if you are in this position. With that in mind, we felt it pertinent to include the honorable mentions in the early second round of your 2023 Rookie Drafts.
1.12 - Will Levis - QB
Tennessee Titans - Round 2 - 33rd Overall
Will Levis falling out of the first round crumbled all value insulation of the young quarterback prospect. Levis will need to win the starting job from Ryan Tannehill in his rookie season and produce at an above-average level with a below-average offense in order to maintain any semblance of value after his rookie season.
2.01 - Devon Achane - RB
Miami Dolphins: Round 3 - 84th Overall
Speed, speed and more speed. The Miami Dolphins add to the fastest offense in the NFL with the fastest running back from the 2023 NFL Draft. Achane topped all position mates with a 4.32s 40-yard dash, making him a prime fit in head coach Mike McDaniel’s spread option offense. Measured at 5’9” and 188 lbs, Achane will need to break the “outlier” mold of undersized running backs if he hopes to find NFL relevance.
2.02 - Kendre Miller - RB
New Orleans Saints: Round 3 71st Overall
Built like a truck with a motor that never quits, Kendre Miller slots in perfectly as the Saints' new early-down thumper. The problem is, Jamaal Williams was signed in the offseason fresh off of 17 touchdowns to fill that role. Furthermore, Alvin Kamara’s future with the team is still very much in question and Miller does not profile as a receiving back by any means. It will be tough for Miller to beat out Williams for the bulk of touches but the rookie running back could very well become the team’s new franchise cornerstone should he fare positively in his rookie season.
2.03 - Michael Mayer - TE
Las Vegas Raiders: Round 2 35th Overall
Michael Mayer’s drastic draft day skid ended early in the second round where the Raiders selected the young tight end as the heir to Darren Waller. Mayer was believed by many to be a first-round talent and the number one tight end in the 2023 NFL Draft but the league certainly did not agree. Mayer has elite hands and receiving ability with a clear path to starting minutes in an offensive system that has historically favored the tight end position.
2.04 - Josh Downs - WR
Indianapolis Colts: Round 3 - 79th Overall
Admittedly my biggest miss of the pre-draft process was ranking Josh Downs well-above consensus. Falling to the third round of the NFL Draft weakens a stunningly impressive collegiate profile. Although Downs has produced at a high level during all three years of college, his real-life NFL Draft capital places him in a mediocre tier of low-level fantasy producers. Downs is still capable of meeting his suggested ceiling, however, that ceiling is notably capped in comparison to our Pre-Draft outlook.
For the complete 2023 Rookie Rankings (and much more!) check out patreon.com/Brotofantasy. You will also gain access to extra episodes, our discord community and more!
For Complete insights into our Pre-Draft Rookie Rankings click here: Dynasty Rookie Rankings: 1st Round Picks
Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at BRoto Fantasy Football.
The Fantasy Football by BRoto app is now live on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store! Download it today for a start sit tool, player cards, statistics, usage, rankings, interactive tools, coaching tendencies, and much, much more. FREE for a limited time.
By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.