Dynasty Rookie Rankings: 1st Round Picks

Dynasty startup season is in full swing. With the 2023 NFL Draft fast approaching and rookie ADP becoming a fixture in the player pool, these rankings will provide managers with an in-depth linear ranking for every draft spot. From 1.01 to 4.12, this is where the value is to be had. 

Before we get started, I felt it pertinent to be transparent in the process that allows me to finalize my rankings with confidence.

TRUST THE PROCESS:

Remove Bias

I attempt to eliminate bias and fandom from my process altogether. Every player is put through the same rigorous standard to decipher a proper ranking founded on insulated value and current production.

Market Consensus

Player value and rankings are consistently cross-referenced with all expert consensus rankings on major platforms. Orders and values are adjusted to reflect a combination of market consensus and personal evaluation.

Historical ADP Data

Historical analytics are used to reference the “stickiness” of a player’s ranking based on age, production, and previous ADP. Year one ADP can greatly affect a player’s congruent future value.

Future Outlook/Range of Outcomes

Rankings will favor players in stable team situations with a strong future outlook. The range of outcomes (R.O.O) is based on historical statistical thresholds and cross-compared with several reference points.

Rookie Rankings

Rookies are evaluated based on collective metrics of college production, athletic scores, combined stats, and draft/landing spot. Talent will always reign supreme when ranking rookies. Advanced college analytics are self-adjusted and cross-referenced with Pahowdy’s CFB Database for accuracy.

As per usual we will be viewing these rankings through the lens of a 12-team Superflex/Tight End Premium format. For the first installment, let's start at the top of the draft.

ROUND 1

The first round of upcoming rookie drafts is stacked with top-end talent but lacks some of the positional depth of years past despite being loaded at the running back position. Please keep in mind players do not necessarily have to reach their production peak/ceiling to help increase the value of your roster and return on investment. There are more than a few names in the first round that can directly benefit your dynasty teams, whether from a market value or a production standpoint.

1.01 - Bijan Robinson (RB - Texas)

Tim Warner/Getty Images

Bijan Robinson is undeniably the dead-to-rights RB1 overall on the dynasty market. The Doak Walker Award winner has accumulated three consecutive years of top-end production in college, smashing through analytic models and Big 12 defenses as a bonafide superstar before he ever steps foot on an NFL field. Only one rookie in this draft class is considered a top twelve asset in startup drafts and I am not hesitant to lock him down with the rookie 1.01.

<Tier Break>

1.02 marks an equal three-player tier of 2023 QB1s in Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson. All three possess immense upside with each having their fair share of red flags as well. There are several different philosophies for ranking this tier. Regardless of your personalized order, the next three quarterbacks stand in a tier above the rest.

1.02 - Bryce Young (QB - Alabama)

Bryce Young set SEC defenses ablaze during his tenure as Alabama’s starting quarterback. The Heisman trophy winner has a less-than-ideal frame, measuring at 5’10” and just north of 200 lbs but has shown no signs of allowing his lack of size to affect his game. Young has operated in a pro-level offense with success for several seasons with the talent and potential to be a long-time franchise quarterback and staple producer on your Superflex rosters. 

1.03 - C.J. Stroud (QB - Ohio State)

C.J. Stroud developed as the best pure-passer of the 2023 quarterback class, benefitting from a super-stacked Ohio State depth chart containing no less than five first-round NFL wide receivers (Wilson, Olave, Harrison, Smith-Njigba, Egbuka). Stroud's pocket presence and decision-making are well beyond his formative years. He has shown minimal rushing upside in his collegiate profile but certainly possesses enough athleticism to extend plays outside of the pocket and pick up chunk gains with his legs when necessary. Stroud may very well be the first quarterback selected in the 2023 NFL Draft, solidifying an already promising analytic profile.

1.04 - Anthony Richardson (QB - Florida)

Anthony Richardson is the all-upside swing of the 2023 NFL Draft class. Richardson’s draft stock met a meteoric rise after he effortlessly destroyed the NFL Combine with a perfect 10.00 relative athletic score, becoming the most athletic quarterback in NFL Combine history. Richardson is a raw passer with noted accuracy issues but possesses stand-alone athleticism and intangible traits that no other quarterback prospect has ever shown. There is an inherent risk to Richardson’s profile but his range of outcomes is that of QB1 overall in both PPG and market value.

<Tier Break>

There is only one player outside of Bijan Robinson that should be in the conversation of being ranked ahead of the rookie quarterbacks simply due to their value insulation on the dynasty market.

1.05 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR - Ohio State)

NBC Sports

Jaxon Smith-Njigba should arguably be ranked in the same tier, if not ahead, of all three quarterbacks previously mentioned. A single season of positive statistical production across three years at Ohio State leaves us with a somewhat incomplete assertion of Smith-Njigba’s range of outcomes. With that said, he possesses one of the greatest single-season analytical profiles ever constructed.

Collegiate Career Totals:

110 REC

133 TGT

1698 REC YDS

10 Total TD

413 Snaps

398 Routes

88.6% Slot Rate

11.1% Wide Rate 

Collegiate Career Best Averages:

22.7% TGT

28.1% TGT/Route

80.7% Route Participation

4.26 YPRR

9.3 YD aDOT

3.26 REC YDS/TPA

1.77 REC YDS/TA

26.0% Dominator

If you are analytically uninclined, no worries, allow me to add context to that stellar season. Smith-Njigba broke the single-game reception record at Ohio State as a 19-year-old sophomore. Twice. Doing so in the same season, securing over 240 yards in both games, setting the single-game receiving yards record at Ohio State (347 REC YDS) while Garrett Wilson (2022 Pick 10) and Chris Olave (2022 Pick 11) were both on the roster. Smith-Njigba is an uber-productive receiver who is projected to follow in the footsteps of a long line of star wideouts from the Ohio State pipeline.

<Tier Break>

There is a notable gap in market consensus value after Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s 1.05 ADP. Jahmyr Gibbs is rightfully placed at the 1.06 rookie spot in rookie ADP but falls nearly two full rounds past Smith-Njigba in Superflex startup drafts.

1.06 - Jahmyr Gibbs (RB - Georgia Tech/Alabama)

Gibbs is a true “Konami Code” running back with an immense receiving pedigree that could rival some of the top wideouts in the 2023 NFL Draft. He possesses an elite collegiate career target share of 13.1% target share, generating a 118.2 QB Rating when targeted with an 84.0% catch rating. He has recorded 103 career receptions for 1212 yards and 8 receiving touchdowns across three seasons with Georgia Tech (2) and Alabama (1). 

Gibbs is in a tier of his own when compared to the remaining available 2023 running back prospects. He is the only running back in the 2023 NFL Draft class with a career range of outcomes that could challenge Bijan Robinson as the overall RB1 in Dynasty.

<Tier Break>

1.07 - Jordan Addison (WR - Pitt/USC)

The most common adjective you will see to describe Addison throughout the draft process is “versatile.” Addison can play both inside the slot and outside as a true number-one option for a team in need of receiving depth. He has developed an impressive set of route running skills, showing extreme patience and precision to his craft, allowing for a wide array of potentially positive fits come draft time. The kid can truly do it all from any receiver position in any scheme or formation. He is fearless in catching the ball in traffic, devastating after the catch and possesses elite ball-tracking ability over each shoulder. Simply put, Addison has been one of the best receivers in college football over the last two seasons. Well-rounded and polished, he is an NFL-ready prospect who will make an immediate impact wherever he lands. Addison is sure to be a viable NFL starter for years with top-12 positional upside well within his range of outcomes for his career.

<Tier Break>

There is a significant drop-off in talent after the 1.07 selection in upcoming dynasty rookie drafts. This is not to say that the prospects in question are poor, moreover a recognition of the elite assets listed above them.

1.08 - Quentin Johnston (WR - TCU)

Quentin Johnston possesses a litany of positive intangibles coupled with a wide array of red flags. The 6’3” behemoth exhibits deceptive athleticism after the catch with open-field moves reminiscent of much smaller receivers. Unfortunately, his years at TCU are marred with several negatives including, but not limited to, excessive amounts of drops, a limited route tree, poor route separation/success metrics and an abysmal Yards Per Team Attempt below 1.0 YDS. Johnston remains locked in the top 10 selections due to the dynasty market’s consensus evaluation of the TCU receiver as a top-tier asset. A progressive strategy at 1.07 would involve trading back and adding congruent value in the 2023 draft or moving the selection for a higher projected pick in 2024.

<Tier Break>

The next tier offers insights into a bucket of extremely high-upside prospects laden with potential risk.

1.09 - Will Levis (QB - Kentucky)

Will Levis is an undeniably gifted quarterback with all the physical tools, size, and athleticism to succeed at a high level in the NFL. His arm strength and mobility are encouraging, as is his experience operating in an NFL-style offensive system at his alma mater. Unfortunately, nothing within his analytical or scouting profile suggests that the young Kentucky quarterback is ready to meet his potential. Levis has struggled with accuracy and decision-making throughout his collegiate career. He forces the play frequently, rather than letting the offense develop in front of him. Levis’ most common and positive player comparison is none other than Bills quarterback Josh Allen. Managers are quick to forget the very nature of Allen’s extreme outlier profile, assuming that Levis is a safe bet to meet that ceiling. Selecting the strong-armed quarterback at the back end of the first allows managers to mitigate some of the inherent risks while still capitalizing on a potentially game-changing fantasy quarterback.

1.10 - Zach Charbonnet (RB - Michigan/UCLA)

UCLA Athletics

Charbonnet’s 2023 NFL Draft stock is certainly on the rise after a stellar senior year at UCLA. He has the ideal size and athleticism to fit into any offensive system as the lead-back. It is worth noting that there are justifiable questions surrounding Charbonnet’s receiving pedigree and his ability to be a true game-changer on fantasy rosters with rushing production alone. Some of those concerns were set aside after the early-down thumper broke through as an effective receiver in 2022 but one single season of positive production does little to mitigate the entirety of worries. Consensus draft boards have Charbonnet falling to the mid-2nd round of the 2023 NFL Draft, boosting what is an already promising dynasty profile with decent draft capital. The former Michigan and UCLA star has the potential to become a complete 3-down back at the pro level but will need to develop quickly in order to meet his 1st-round price tag in upcoming dynasty rookie drafts.

1.11 - Josh Downs (WR - UNC)

Josh Downs boasts what is arguably the second-best all-around analytical profile of all wide receivers in the 2023 NFL Draft class. Only Jaxon Smith-Njigba can lay claim to having a more complete prospect profile than Downs. In three seasons at UNC, the speedy wideout solidified himself as one of the best wideouts in the NCAA.

Collegiate Career Totals:

32 Games

202 REC

278 TGT

2483 REC YDS

22 Total TD

8.7 YD aDOT

1007 Snaps

922 Routes

89.1% Slot Rate

8.1% Wide Rate 

Collegiate Career Best Averages:

39.1% TGT Share

30.2% TGT/Route

100.0% Route Share

3.53 REC YDS/TPA

1.50 REC YDS/TA

2.80 YPRR

His crafty speed and use of patience have led to two consecutive seasons of elite production at UNC as a target-hogging flanker. He profiles best as an elite special teamer and high-target slot receiver with limited success or experience as an X/Y on the perimeter. This is not an indictment of the player, moreover an attempt to bring light to the fact that real-life scouting evaluations do not always correlate to elite fantasy production. Downs fits the analytic bill of several highly productive slot receivers before him such as Amon-Ra St. Brown, Cooper Kupp, and Keenan Allen but lacks the size of his statistical likenesses. He has proved that despite his size he can be productive in any offense with any quarterback but will likely serve as the number two option alongside a big-bodied complimentary wideout.

1.12 - Zay Flowers (WR - Boston College)

Flowers has found success both inside as a slot receiver and outside as a true X/Y field-stretcher. He profiles best as a slot on low depth of target opportunities where he can feast in the open field. Flowers' ability to gain chunk yardage after the catch may be his best asset, allowing for a seamless fit in a wide variety of offensive schemes. The Boston College prospect is extremely confident and capable with a litany of fakes and feints to beat defenders off the press while owning an impressively complex route tree as well. His slight frame and four-year tenure will likely keep him out of the first round but attaching 2nd round draft capital to a profile like Flowers does little to hinder his positive range of outcomes.

Flowers has solid WR2 upside written all over his analytical profile and should meet his ceiling quicker than most draftmates due to his experience and refined skill set.

Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at BRoto Fantasy Football.

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By Matt Ward