Every year, draft time rolls around and everyone gets excited about the crop of new talent coming into the NFL. For fantasy football, both regular season and dynasty, this new infusion of talent is a chance to remake your roster and hit on long shots that can propel you to victories, but success is far from guaranteed.
For every Justin Jefferson, there is a Jalen Reagor and for every Trent Richardson, there is a Saquon Barkley. In order to get an idea of the true odds of rookies hitting on their pre-draft hype, we are going to take a look back at past draft classes to see how the top prospects have fared.
We will take a look at first-round QBs, WRs, TEs and first-and-second-round RBs to see if these prospects lived up to the hype.
To truly measure their fantasy football impact, we are going to use Fantasy Player Grades, a Broto exclusive metric that assigns a letter grade based on a player’s overall fantasy output and how it stacked up against others at their position. All players with 5+ games and 6+ ppg in a given season between 2015 and 2021 are placed on a 0-100 scale.
Let’s take a look at the 2016 draft class.
Other draft class reviews: 2015
Round 1, Pick 1 - Jared Goff, QB, Los Angeles Rams
Career Average Fantasy Grade - C- (66.3) - 6 eligible seasons
Highest Single Season Fantasy Grade - A- (88.4) - 2018
Lowest Single Season Fantasy Grade - F (35.9) - 2021
For a while, it seemed like Goff was headed for stardom, both in fantasy and in real life. After only starting seven games in his rookie season, Goff finished as a QB1 in the 2017 and 2018 seasons, peaking with a QB8 overall finish. With young-wizkid HC Sean McVay calling plays and first-overall pick Goff leading an offense that finished first and second in offense in the NFL, respectively, the sky was the limit. But in the following two seasons, Goff and the Rams took some major steps backward. Goff’s production gradually decreased, going from a career-high A- fantasy grade in 2018 to a C and D- before getting traded to the Lions in a deal that brought QB Matthew Stafford to the Rams. After in 2021, Goff hit professional rock bottom, watching Stafford lead the Rams to a Super Bowl while putting up an F season for the three-win Lions. Last season, Goff bounced back in a big way, finishing the season as QB12 and recording a C fantasy grade. He goes into 2023 as the starting QB for the ascending Lions.
Round 1, Pick 2 - Carson Wentz, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
Career Average Fantasy Grade - D- (55.9) - 7 eligible seasons
Highest Single Season Fantasy Grade - A (92.4) - 2017
Lowest Single Season Fantasy Grade - F (32.8) - 2022
Like Goff, Wentz looked like he was headed for superstardom early. After a rookie season where he struggled, Wentz lit up the NFL in his second season, recording an ‘A’ fantasy grade en route to what looked like an MVP season. But with one fateful dive into the end zone in Week 13, Wentz tore his ACL and would never be the same again. He was decent in 2018 but completely fell off in 2019, throwing only 16 TDs to 15 INTs in 12 games and finishing with a fantasy grade of D-. Wentz has been traded twice in two years, to the Colts and Commanders, where he failed to recapture his old glory. After finishing the last three seasons with ‘F’ Fantasy Grades, Wentz heads into 2023 as a free agent.
Round 1, Pick 4 - Ezekiel Elliot, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Getty Images
Career Average Fantasy Grade - B+ (86.1) - 7 eligible seasons
Highest Single Season Fantasy Grade - A+ (99.2) - 2018
Lowest Single Season Fantasy Grade - D (61.8) - 2020
Elliott burst onto the scene and established himself as a fantasy superstar from the first moment he stepped on the field, leading the league in rushing yards per game in each of his first three seasons. One-name nicknames are usually reserved for the great ones and ‘Zeke’ earned that moniker early and often. Zeke recorded three ‘A+’ and one ‘A’ grade in his first four seasons, while averaging an insane 125 all-purpose yards per game and 12 TDs per season during that run. What separated him from the pack at his peak was his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, averaging just under 3.5 catches per game, hauling in a career-high 77 catches in 2018, the same year he led the NFL in rush attempts and rushing yards. Although Zeke started to slow down in 2020, he still finished as a yearly RB1 until it all came crashing down last season, finishing as RB21 on the year, easily his worst showing. Injuries and the rise of RB Tony Pollard in the same backfield slowed Elliott down enough that the Cowboys parted ways with their franchise back this offseason. He is still without a team as of this article’s release but will no doubt find a home in 2023.
Round 1, Pick 15 - Corey Coleman, WR, Cleveland Browns
Career Average Fantasy Grade - F (32.4) - 2 eligible seasons
Highest Single Season Fantasy Grade - F (46.2) - 2016
Lowest Single Season Fantasy Grade - F (18.6) - 2017
Coleman was a bust in every sense of the word. He was a bad teammate, a bad football player, and a terrible fantasy asset. Injuries played a huge role in Coleman’s downfall, but even when he was on the field, he failed to assert dominance in any way. He finished as a weekly WR1 just once in his career, scoring twice and totaling 108 yards in the second game of his short career. Coleman has been out of the NFL since 2018.
Round 1, Pick 21 - Will Fuller, WR, Houston Texans
Career Average Fantasy Grade - C- (65.5) - 5 eligible seasons
Highest Single Season Fantasy Grade - A (90.2) - 2020
Lowest Single Season Fantasy Grade - F (42.2) - 2016
This might sound crazy but…was Fuller kidnapped? I mean, I’m only half joking. After having the best season of his career with the Dolphins in 2020 with a career-high in targets, catches, receiving yards, TDs (and every other statistical category you can think of) through only 11 games, Fuller was suspended for the final five games of the season for PED use. After missing the first game of the 2021 season for the same suspension, Fuller exited the Dolphins' Week 4 game with a finger injury and no one has heard from him since. He did not play in the 2022 season but continues to appear in every team’s blog as one of the “Top 5 Players _________ Should Take a Chance On in 2023.”
Round 1, Pick 22 - Josh Doctson, WR, Washington Franchise
Career Average Fantasy Grade - F (25.8) - 2 eligible seasons
Highest Single Season Fantasy Grade - F (26.1) - 2017
Lowest Single Season Fantasy Grade - F (25.4) - 2018
Another story that could have been a little different if not for injuries, Doctson was nothing short of a bust. After missing his rookie season with an injury, Doctson averaged under three REC/G in two more seasons in Washington before washing out with the Vikings in 2019, where he played in 0 games.
Round 1, Pick 23 - Laquon Tredwell, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Career Average Fantasy Grade - F (22.6) - 1 eligible season
Highest Single Season Fantasy Grade - F (22.6) - 2021
Lowest Single Season Fantasy Grade - N/A
Treadwell’s career in the NFL can be summed up in one word: bust. His pure speed has allowed him to bounce around the NFL, recording his best season in 2021 under the Urban Meyer Jaguars, where he has 434 yards and a TD. After catching six balls for the Seahawks last season, Treadwell is a free agent heading into 2023.
Round 1, Pick 26 - Paxton Lynch, QB, Denver Broncos
CBS Sports
Career Average Fantasy Grade - N/A
Highest Single Season Fantasy Grade - N/A
Lowest Single Season Fantasy Grade - N/A
Lynch might be the worst draft pick in the history of the NFL draft. He tallied four NFL starts in two seasons, throwing 4 TDs and 4 INTs. The last time we saw Lynch on the field, he was benched by the San Antonio Brahmas of the XFL in Week 2 of the season.
Round 2, Pick 45 - Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
Career Average Fantasy Grade - C+ (76.6) - 7 eligible seasons
Highest Single Season Fantasy Grade - A+ (98.2) - 2020
Lowest Single Season Fantasy Grade - F (21.8) - 2016
When your nickname is ‘King’ you know you’re doing something right. The only reason Henry’s career average is not much higher is because of the slow start to his career. After splitting reps and being misused in his first two seasons in the NFL, Henry started his ascension in 2018, going for over 1000 yards and 12 TDs in his first season as a lead back. But it was his 2019 season that propelled the legend of King Henry and started an unparalleled four straight ‘A+’ Fantasy Graded seasons from 2019-2022. During that time, he won NFL Offensive Player of the Year, rushed for over 1500 yards in each of his full seasons (he played 8 in 2021 due to injury) and broke for a 2000-yard rushing season, a feat accomplished by only eight players in history. While the critics have been trying to slay the king for years, Henry seems like he just keeps improving, doubling his previous career high in receptions last season. Trade winds are swirling but as of right now, Henry is set to suit up for the Titans in 2023.
Other notable players:
NFL.com
*denotes an A- grade or higher in any single season in career
Round 2 - TE Hunter Henry, WR Sterling Shepard, WR Michael Thomas*, WR Tyler Boyd,
Round 3 - RB Kenyan Drake, TE Austin Hooper, QB Jacoby Brissett
Round 4 - TE Tyler Higbee, QB Dak Prescott
Round 5 - RB Jordan Howard, WR Tyreek Hill*
Undrafted - RB JD McKissic, WR Chosen Robbie Anderson, RB Peyton Barber
The best draft pick in this entire draft happened in the fourth round when the Cowboys drafted Prescott.. Dak has finished with a fantasy grade of ‘A-’ or higher in half of his eligible seasons and is currently one of the highest-paid franchise QBs in football. Coming in a close second is Tyreek Hill. Slept on because of off-the-field issues and his small size, the speedster called ‘Cheetah’ has finished with an ‘A-” fantasy grade or higher in six straight seasons, four of which were ‘A+’ years. His domination continues next season with the Dolphins, who he will join for year two after five years in Kansas City. Michael Thomas has failed to be a consistent force because of his attitude and injuries but he came out of the gate scorching. Between 2016-2019 he finished as ‘A-’ or better, including 2019 when he set the NFL record for receptions while recording his second consecutive ‘A+’ Fantasy Grade. Jordan Howard, Hunter Henry, Chosen Robbie Anderson, Austin Hooper and Tyler Boyd have all enjoyed some success but failed to have consistent production in the long term.
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By Timothy Petropoulos
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.