Sleepers and Busts: Week 10

SLEEPERS

QB: Geno Smith - Seattle Seahawks

Geno Smith gets a change in narrative from last week’s Sleepers and Busts column that correctly predicted the Seahawks signal caller as a Week 9 fade. Heading into Week 10, the outlook on Smith looks much more palatable for a smash start against a terrific matchup. The Seahawks (5-3) play host to the Commanders (4-5) with the hometown team favored by 6.5 points and a projected Over/Under scoring total of 45.5 points. The Commanders are in a major re-tooling phase, shipping away their two best pass rushers on defense prior to the NFL’s trade deadline, leaving an already weakened front with irreplaceable holes for the remainder of the season. Smith’s upcoming opponents allow 381.1 total yards per game (26th), giving up 252.7 passing yards (28th), 116.2 rushing yards (20th), and 27.2 points (31st) on average. The Commanders' defense concedes 21.4 PPG to opposing quarterbacks (16.5 PPG of Passing Production), ranked 8th in Broto Fantasy’s True Matchup Rank with a Points Over Average of 16.0%. The Commanders also allow 36.7 PPG to wideouts (4th/40.0% Points Over Average), further lining Smith and company up for a big game through the air. The journeyman turned franchise starter has regressed mightily from his 2022 heights but a Week 10 matchup against a cupcake defense is more than enough to warrant a plug-and-play start into your lineups.

Matt Ward

RB: James Cook - Buffalo Bills

Looking back through the Broto Fantasy Football will yield plenty of content and analysis that paints James Cook as an undersized, change-of-pace back with concerning usage splits and an uphill battle to league-winning production. Although those narratives could fill a proverbial cornucopia of negativity, Cook’s Week 10 matchup is simply too good to ignore. As they say in the combat sports world, “Styles make fights” – and Cook’s style matches up perfectly against the Bills' newest opposition. The Broncos (3-5) travel east to the frigid home field of the Bills (5-4) as the slumping AFC East juggernauts look to right the ship against a bottom-feeding defense. Vegas betting lines have the Over/Under projected at a surprisingly high 47.5 points with the Bills doing most of the heavy lifting as 7.0 point favorites. The Broncos' defense allows a league-low 422.8 scrimmage yards (32nd), 154.1 rushing yards (32nd), and 28.3 points (32nd) per game to opposing offenses. The Broncos rank first in PPG allowed to running backs (35.9) and 2nd overall in True Matchup Rank with a Points Over Average of 33.0%. They concede a whopping 23.2 PPG of rushing production (3rd/107.0% Points Over Average) and 12.7 PPG of receiving production (3rd/116.0% Points Over Average) to running backs in 2023 and have allowed at least one RB2 (or better) performance in all eight games this season. Cook’s usage inside the 20’s will continue to be a cause for concern but a positive game script where the Bills play with the lead could yield several high-value touches for their second-year running back.

Matt Ward

WR: Curtis Samuel (Jameson Crowder) - Washington Commanders

Sam Howell leads the league in pass attempts, completions, and interceptions. His interception percentage isn’t that high but calling him a gunslinger sounds a lot more fun. The Commanders have once again found a way to support three wide receivers with their sheer volume of passing plays while also upholding Logan Thomas and Brian Robinson as viable fantasy options as well. Curtis Samuel isn’t being utilized as a rusher very often, as in years past, but he is quietly having one of the best seasons of his career thus far. He’s still a low-aDOT target on a struggling team but that’s just fine for fantasy purposes. He’s having about as much success as Jahan Dotson or Logan Thomas in terms of season totals, and he’s even averaging more points per game than Dotson through nine weeks. I don’t believe his highs will be as high but he can be a FLEX-worthy reception hog. His three best games are all ones in which he scored a touchdown, and he hasn’t had a WR3 or better game without one. Banking on scoring isn’t a sustainable prediction method but the team spreads the ball out in the red zone and he’s one target shy of the team lead in targets in that area of the field. You’re also not starting Samuel as your WR2 unless you’re in an incredibly deep league or hurting badly from injuries or bye weeks. You’re starting Samuel because his QB can throw 3-4 TDs on a given day, gets a pretty good matchup that should see them trailing or tied and thus throwing, and because the Seahawks rank 3rd in True Matchup Rank for wide receivers. Samuel has primarily lined up in the slot and should see coverage assignments from Devon Witherspoon for most of the game. The rookie corner is having a great season but has been susceptible to big performances. Samuel has logged limited practices but if he can’t go for some reason, Jamison Crowder is a viable fill-in. You don’t risk much by dropping Samuel and Crowder should be available in most leagues. His success has been purely due to Samuel missing time. Jahan Dotson is also at risk of missing this game which could lead to more opportunities for either receiver. 

Themi Michalakis

TE: Trey McBride - Arizona Cardinals

The entire Cardinals offense gets an immediate and immense upgrade in Week 10 as star franchise quarterback Kyler Murray is expected to make his return to action for the first time this season. Although an increased ceiling can be anticipated for Murray's pass-catchers, none are in a better position to succeed than second-year tight end Trey McBride. The Cardinals (1-8) will play host to the Falcons (4-5) in a low-tier matchup of two of the NFL's bottom-feeding teams. The Falcons have been surprisingly stout on defense, allowing just 317.6 scrimmage yards (6th) and 197.1 passing yards (10th) per game. They give up 21.3 points per game to opposing offenses, ranked 18th amongst teams this season. Although their strengths have been documented, the Falcons have also been a sieve for tight end production all season (Oh, the irony). They are giving up a whopping 13.4 PPG to tight ends in 2023, ranking 5th in True Matchup Rank to the position with a Points Over Average of 60.0%. The Falcons' defense is just one of four defenses to allow more than 13.0 PPG to the tight end position on average and one of just five teams to have a Points Over Average rating greater than 50.0%. McBride has been steadily climbing the target ladder on the Cardinals depth chart, posting four consecutive games with five or more targets, including a team-leading 14 targets in Week 8. Veteran tight end Zach Ertz remains sidelined on injured reserve, leaving McBride to feast atop the depth chart as the number two target alongside Marquise Brown. The return of Murray should increase the sheer value of said targets while also opening up the offense with more pass attempts as they attempt to instill confidence into their cornerstone signal-caller. McBride is in an excellent position to far exceed his lowly expectations in Week 10.

Matt Ward

BUSTS

QB: Russell Wilson - Denver Broncos

Despite the incessant narratives of failure rightfully surrounding the Broncos franchise, Russell Wilson has been a surprisingly efficient and effective fantasy quarterback. Wilson is averaging 17.3 PPG with 16 touchdowns to only four interceptions and a True Throw Value of 0.58 (QB3). That is virtually where the positives start and end for every member of this Broncos roster. Heading into Week 10, the rapidly mounting negatives far outweigh Wilson’s current averages. The Broncos (3-5) travel to face the Bills (5-4) as 7.0-point road underdogs on Monday Night Football. The Bills' defense has regressed in the wake of season-ending injuries to Tre’Davious White and Matt Milano but are still amongst the best units in the league at stemming the production of opposing quarterbacks. The Bills' defense concedes a mere 219.6 passing yards (14th) and 17.8 (5th) points per game, allowing 9.2 PPG to the quarterbacks with a Points Over Average of (-)39.0% as the worst possible matchup per Broto Fantasy’s True Matchup Rank. The Bills rank 31st in True Matchup Rank in quarterback passing production, once again representing a negative (-)39.0% Points Over Average rating while giving up just 7.9 PPG to the position through the air. Week 10 marks arguably the toughest matchup of Wilson’s 2023 season – an obvious spot to fade the Broncos signal-caller.

Matt Ward

RB: Alexander Mattison - Minnesota Vikings

Alexander Mattison was a favorite late-round “Hero-RB” target for many managers this offseason. Those same managers are pounding the air as they routinely open their fantasy football apps to view Mattison’s middling averages despite a terrific opportunity share. The addition of Cam Akers was slowly beginning to whittle Mattison’s utility down even further. Unfortunately, Akers suffered a devastating season-ending Achilles tear – the second of his young career. Leaving Mattison to feast as the leading option in the backfield used to be a recipe that cooked up stellar week-winning production for his fantasy managers. Now, not so much. The Vikings running back is averaging just 10.9 PPG this season despite running 9th in total snap share (66.0) and 9th in opportunity share (70.9%) amongst all players in 2023. Knowing that he has yet to produce meaningful numbers against some lesser defensive matchups should reduce all confidence in Mattison heading into Week 10. With new starting quarterback Josh Dobbs under center, the Vikings (5-4) will host the Saints (5-4) as 3.0-point underdogs at home and a lowly Over/Under scoring total projected at 40.5 points. The Saints defense is allowing just 316.4 scrimmage yards (5th) and 19.0 points (7th) per game to their opponents. They rank 24th in True Matchup Rank, allowing 11.8 PPG and negative (-)18.0% Points Over Average to the running back position. The Saints are certainly more stout against rushing than receiving production of rival running backs, giving up 5.6 PPG (13th/18.0% Points Over Average) through the air and just 6.2 PPG (28th/-35.0% Points Over Average) on the ground. With that said, Mattison has just 158 receiving yards (RB19) and 23 receptions (RB15) despite boasting a top-10 target total (34 Targets). All signs point to yet another down game for the once-coveted handcuff.

Matt Ward

WR: Jakobi Meyers - Las Vegas Raiders

Jakobi Meyers has been a fantasy savior for many, putting up ridiculous numbers considering how late he was being drafted. Meyers is the WR14 overall in Half-PPR and the WR18 in PPG. Despite that success, he’s only 38th in the league in receiving yards. It’s evident when looking at his game logs that Meyers, while incredibly talented, is getting a ton of fantasy value from touchdowns. With five touchdowns, he’s tied for the 7th most in the league. There are plenty of other players who don’t get quite as much hype with similar stats. Courtland Sutton has one more touchdown, 62 fewer yards, and seven fewer receptions than Meyers but is hardly getting any mention as a fantasy asset. Obviously, I’m not here to sell you on Sutton and when you look at the finishes that Meyers has had he is far more consistently beneficial for your team, but they’re not far off! Yardage and high reception totals just haven’t been consistent or even really ever available for Meyers. He has four games of 10+ targets but also three of five targets or fewer. That’s the inconsistency you get from him. He was saved this past week with a 17-yard touchdown against a weak defense. This week, the team will need to pass more which should lead to more targets but it won’t be easy. The Jets are the 2nd worst matchup for wide receivers in True Matchup Rank and Meyers should face a healthy mix of coverage from Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed, and Michael Carter. None of them have given up 60 or more yards in a game all season according to Pro Football Reference. Meyers has gotten your team this far for a reason, and even if Aidan O’Connell isn’t that good in future weeks he still seems confident and can perform behind a good offensive line. This week, Meyers is especially touchdown-reliant. I have faith in the talent but I’m not expecting anything special for most of the game. The Jets are much easier to beat on the ground, too, which could lead to more Josh Jacobs.

Themi Michalakis

TE: David Njoku - Cleveland Browns

David Njoku has unsuspectingly stepped up for the Browns as of late, vaulting himself to the top of the pecking order as the team’s top target earner over the past three games. Njoku has commanded target totals of nine, eight, and six in three consecutive contests, providing immense utility alongside Amari Cooper for an offense that appears desperate to find an identity via the passing game. Unfortunately, that identity will face yet another crisis in Week 10 as the Browns (5-3) travel to face the hottest team in the AFC in a divisional rivalry matchup against the Ravens (7-2). The Ravens have won four straight while giving up a lowly 15.3 points per game to their opposition during that stretch. On the season, they have allowed 295.8 scrimmage yards (2nd), 170.7 passing yards (2nd), 91.9 rushing yards (8th), and 13.8 points (1st) per game as the NFL’s top-scoring defense. Even more concerning is the fact that the Ravens concede just 4.4 PPG to the tight end position, ranking 32nd in Broto Fantasy’s True Matchup Rank with a Points Over Average of negative (-)45.0% as the worst possible matchup for tight ends. Njoku may be on the rise as a “must-start” fantasy asset but those ascending presumptions are not nearly enough to ignore the nearly insurmountable matchup on deck in Week 10.

Matt Ward

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