Broto Bets Week 10

Broto Bets went 2-2 and lost 0.26 units last week. It wasn’t a big loss but trusting the Giants destroyed an otherwise decent week. 

Season Total: 21-17-1, +0.245u 

Teasers: 

Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills (-7) O/U: 47 

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) O/U: 38 

Themi’s Teaser: Bills -1, Ravens -0.5 

Since losing Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White, this Bills defense just hasn’t been the same. They’ve been dealt three losses over the past five weeks and have seen their defensive DVOA drop to new lows nearly every week. The Bengals were picking them apart and the final score didn’t truly reflect how bad it could have been. To their credit, the Bills had a few drives end in oddly poor fashion, mainly due to Dalton Kincaid tripping over an opposing player twice, ending good drives with a grounding call and fumble. There still shouldn’t be much confidence in the Bills to beat any team on any given week and a 7.5 point spread is quite large, even if they are playing an underwhelming opponent. The Broncos are coming off a stunning 24-9 win over the division rival Chiefs and rank as a top-half offense in the league. However, they’re still the worst defense despite numerous contenders for that title. They also haven’t faced off against an offense as elite as Buffalo’s outside of Kansas City and Miami but have still managed to allow a smothering of points against some of the league’s worst QBs. Denver might be a good underdog spread pick this week, but the Bills should still be trusted to get the win. Their offense is miles ahead, and while their defense is struggling, they’re still not as awful as Denver. Despite the perceived differences in these teams, the original spread is just far too large to play the Bills. Teasing them down is the best option. 

Have the Browns done anything worth trusting against great-to-elite defenses this season? They scored just three points against the Ravens (with a 5th round rookie QB to be fair), 22 against the Steelers and 19 against the 49ers. Deshaun Watson just hasn’t shown up against a strong pass defense. Nose Tackle Michael Pierce hasn’t been practicing due to an illness, and would be a big loss on the line, but the Ravens have a lot of talent to make up for it. Importantly, they’re showing up on offense. It may seem like they are underperforming at times - and they sometimes are - but they’re still the best rushing team in the league and 11th in passing DVOA. Cleveland’s run game isn’t dead in the water but the solid tandem of Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt is clearly not the same as an elite RB that they should have had in Nick Chubb. Jedrick Wills was just placed on the IR as well, so the tackle positions will be an area for Baltimore to exploit this week. The rest of the line is quite strong, boasting some of the best linemen in the league, but there’s only so much you can do against the league-leaders in sacks. Cleveland is not at full strength and they’re not showing up offensively. An elite defense that could be the best in the league may do enough to win this game for them but I can’t trust them against a team showing little to no flaws. 

New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings (+3) O/U: 41 

Green Bay Packers (+3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers O/U: 39

Themi’s Teaser: Vikings +9, Packers +9 

Trusting Joshua Dobbs in a bet type as risk-averse as the teaser may be foolish but Dobbs has been playing at a level close to Derek Carr this season. Dobbs did find success against Baltimore, San Francisco, and Dallas as a member of the Arizona Cardinals. He gets a difficult but beatable matchup against New Orleans, now as a member of the Vikings. It’s just unfortunate that the Saints are significantly more susceptible on the ground than through the air. Minnesota has excelled when passing even after they lost Justin Jefferson. The run game hasn’t been as successful. Alexander Mattison has not been able to produce as a feature back and Cam Akers just tore his Achilles. The Saints are a top-10 defense but are underperforming on offense while Minnesota has made the best of their situation and has improved tremendously on defense. This is one of the riskier legs of the week but it’s still a good underdog play for two teams that are close in terms of talent. 

Pittsburgh has yet to convincingly put away a team. A home matchup against the Packers is a perfect opportunity for a dominant win but there is still not a lot of reason to trust them just yet. The Packers offense is not exactly great but they’re 14th in passing DVOA and should improve in rushing as Aaron Jones begins to get back to full health. Speaking of health, Jaire Alexander and Quay Walker are at risk of missing this game. Pittsburgh has injury concerns as well with Cole Holcomb out for the season and Minkah Fitzpatrick likely to miss another week. Cam Heyward returned for his first game since Week 1 but missed Thursday’s practice with a groin injury. Pat Freiermuth is expected to return and should be a big boost for the offense but overall, these teams are hurting badly.

Defensive injuries could be beneficial for offensive success but nobody can trust either team right now outside of posting a decent performance in a low-scoring affair.

Straight: 

Jets PK (-110) 

The Giants couldn’t get it done last week against the Raiders, not by a longshot. So let’s give the other NY team a shot, shall we? Although offensive line issues have hurt both New York teams, Robert Saleh’s group is better on both sides of the trenches and they’re especially better at run blocking. Breece Hall is still not having an easy time out there but he’ll have more opportunity to get things going. Zach Wilson is not a great QB but he can be serviceable when his defense shows up and that should be enough to keep feeding Breece against one of the weakest run defenses in the league. Saquan Barkley had 90 yards on 16 carries and if you could have paired that with a digestible passing attack, things could have looked even better. Outside of Daniel Jones’ unfortunate injury and the general lack of offensive success, the Giants were just not equipped to stop Aidan O’Connell if the pass rush didn’t stifle the rookie. The Jets have an elite secondary to pair with a pass-rush that generates a hurry on a league-high 30.5% of opposing dropbacks. This line ranges from -1 to +1 depending on where you look. You should always be shopping for the best available price but I'd take this up to -1.5. 

Steelers -3 (-110) 

Packers Team Total Under 17.5 (-115) 

This matchup is covered in the teaser section. It may seem like these bets limit how well this game can reasonably go but it is not a requirement that they all hit. All the bets can theoretically hit, but the point is getting value where I see it and ending up ++EV. Pittsburgh is good enough to win this game against an inferior opponent at home while also failing to do much offensively themselves. The Packers can get up to 17 points in a game with a point total of 39 while still losing but covering the teaser.

Commanders Team Total Over 16.5 (-175) 

Washington’s offense doesn’t rank spectacularly high but they run the ball well and allow Sam Howell to sling the ball more than any other QB in the league. With a defense that should get beat up without Chase Young and Montez Sweat, they’ll be forced to keep fighting offensively against the Seahawks and should hit at least hit 17. They’re a volatile offense but they’re not facing an elite defense here.

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By Themi Michalakis