SLEEPERS
QB: Taylor Heinicke - Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons scraped through eight games of incompetent quarterback play before making the concerted decision to bench second-year starter Desmond Ridder for journeyman veteran backup Taylor Heinicke. The change brings an undoubted spark to the meandering squad and their fanbase as the combination of Ridder under center and head coach Arthur Smith’s play calling has capped the offense. Heinecke has been a serviceable streaming option throughout his NFL tenure and draws a plus matchup in his first start of 2023 as the Falcons (4-4) host the Vikings (4-4) in Week 9. Both teams are entering the contest with identical records and eerily similar situations of uncertainty when analyzing their current quarterback situation. The Falcons are 3.5-point favorites at home with the Vikings starting rookie quarterback Jaren Hall in replace of the injured Kirk Cousins. Vegas betting lines have the Over/Under set at a lowly 37.5 points, offering a less-than-ideal predictive game script for the fantasy assets involved. With that said, Heinicke faces the best matchup of any readily available streamer this week. The Vikings allow 221.1 passing yards per game (16th) and 20.3 points per game (16th) to opposing offenses while conceding 19.4 PPG (9th) to opposing quarterbacks this season. Heinicke may not provide top-5 positional production but he is a plug-and-play option for those in need of a quarterback after the devastating injury reports released in Week 8.
Matt Ward
RB: Darrell Henderson - Los Angeles Rams
The Rams running back situation has been one to monitor as Kyren Williams awaits his return from injured reserve. Darrell Henderson and Royce Freeman have been utilized in a near-identical fashion with the former of the two teammates receiving more total touches in their first two shared games. Both running backs have been able to find some mild fantasy success. With that said Henderson should get the edge in opportunities nearly every week as he continues to see his fair share of rushing attempts and is the only one of the two running mates to earn a target thus far. Henderson has finished as an RB2 in both of his games and things should get easier this week. After facing the Steelers and Cowboys - and heavily benefiting from a touchdown and long reception - Henderson is in a prime position to do a whole lot more even if touches are limited. The Packers' run defense is the 6th best matchup for running backs in True Matchup Rank and is equally soft for receiving and rushing production to the position. We’ve seen multiple running backs find success against them this season and Henderson (57% Rostership) could be much more than just a desperation bye-week fill-in. Concerns about the state of the offense with Matthew Stafford injured are legitimate but Henderson is worth the risk in a lot of leagues.
Themi Michalakis
WR: Zay Flowers - Baltimore Ravens
Zay Flowers has been a target hog since landing with the Ravens in the 2023 NFL draft, earning 10+ targets in three separate games and averaging over seven per game. He immediately cemented himself as the #1 wide receiver in the offense. Despite the surplus of volume, his fantasy production hasn’t been great from week to week. Flowers only has two games with a top-20 positional weekly finish and has been outside the top 28 in four of his eight games so far.
The silver lining is the level of consistency he brings, routinely putting up 50+ receiving yards in 75% of his starts. He has the targets, he has the receiving floor, and the only thing missing from propelling him toward a high-end weekly finish is an all-elusive touchdown. The last time Flowers landed in the endzone was in Week 6 against the Titans. In that game Flowers finished with 6 catches, 50 receiving yards, and a touchdown, landing him as the WR15 for the week. His upside is immense and he could put it on display yet again in Week 9. The Seahawks' defense has been a soft matchup for wide receivers this year. They are 3rd in True Matchup Rank, giving up a whopping 42% Points over Average to the position. On top of that, they have been locking down opposing tight ends, giving up only one touchdown to the position all year. This puts a damper on things for Mark Andrews this week but could quite possibly give an uptick in volume to the Ravens receivers, namely Zay Flowers. With a weak matchup on the horizon and a knack for securing targets, the sky's the limit for the Ravens' rising rookie in Week 9.
Boyd Armstrong
TE: Hunter Henry - New England Patriots
The Patriots are in desperate need of reliable pass-catchers after their top target-earner Kendrick Bourne was placed on the season-ending injured reserve list. Rookie wideout Demario Douglas was promoted to a top spot on the depth chart while fellow rookie receiver Kayshon Boutte was called up from the practice squad to make his first start of the season. The lack of depth and talent in the wide receiver room could easily pave the way for Hunter Henry to establish himself as the team’s most productive, efficient, and reliable receiver in the passing game. Henry started the season on a mini hot streak, finishing as the TE1 (Week 1) and TE2 (Week 2) overall in the first two weeks of the 2023 season. Since then, Henry's highest positional finish came in Week 4 as the TE19 against the Cowboys. Fortunately for managers in a pinch, Henry also faces off against a Commanders defense that just traded away two of their top pass-rushers while already conceding 256.8 passing yards per game (29th). The Commanders' defense concedes a bottom-feeding 28.5 points per game to opposing offenses (29th) while allowing 16.5 points of passing production (7th) and a combined 42.3 points of receiving production to tight ends and receivers. The Commanders have, however, been much more stout against the tight end position specifically, allowing just 5.9 PPG (31st) but Henry’s position as the top target-earner against a laughably thin front-seven is enough to discount his upcoming matchup’s defensive successes.
Matt Ward
BUSTS
QB: Geno Smith - Seattle Seahawks
Geno Smith has faced monumental regression from his 2022 season heights that saw the castaway quarterback finish inside the top 10 producers at the position. 2023 has written an entirely new narrative for the Seahawks starting signal-caller as Smith has produced just one top-10 finish (QB8: Week 2) with six finishes outside of the top 15 quarterbacks on his resume this season. He is averaging just 14.4 PPG as the QB22 Overall. Positive regression does not appear near as the Seahawks (5-2) travel east to face the Ravens (6-2) in a rare cross-conference matchup between the two division leaders. The Ravens' defense has rekindled their historic identity as a top-tier defense, conceding just 309.6 total yards (6th) with 176.6 passing yards (3rd) and 99.9 rushing yards (12th) per game. They average a mere 15.1 points allowed to their opposition, ranked first overall as the NFL’s number-one defense in limiting points. The Ravens are equally ferocious when it comes to stemming the fantasy production of opposing quarterbacks, giving up a terrifyingly low 10.5 PPG with 9.5 PPG coming via passing production and just 0.9 PPG of rushing production to the position. The Ravens' defense ranks 30th in Broto Fantasy’s True Matchup Rank with a Points Over Average of negative (-) 22.0%. A projected decrease in production coupled with his middling averages, places Smith firmly in the territory of benchable assets for Week 9.
Matt Ward
RB: Alexander Mattison - Minnesota Vikings
Still rostered roughly 91.0% of fantasy leagues, Alexander Mattison’s fantasy value exemplifies a serious case of sunk cost fallacy. The Vikings have been able to generate a lot of success through the air, even when Justin Jefferson went down. Now with Jaren Hall at quarterback in Week 9 and Joshua Dobbs helming the offense thereafter, those successes will undoubtedly change for the worse. Mattison probably wasn’t going to be a major producer regardless but a mid-season quarterback downgrade certainly doesn’t help his range of outcomes. Hall is a complete unknown, with minimal positives as a collegiate prospect while Dobbs is averaging 3.7 targets to running backs per game, one of the lowest marks since 2015. For reference, Cousins has averaged 6.2 running back targets since 2015. Perhaps the Vikings' game plan will change that with a lower depth of target but it’s doubtful that it increases by a large enough to reignite what has been a largely disappointing season for Mattison. His competition and matchup are what truly make him a bench candidate this week. The Falcons are the 4th hardest matchup in True Matchup Rank, allowing 31% fewer Points Over Average than expected to the position. The Falcons have not allowed a single RB1 performance in any game this season. It almost always takes a big rushing game and a good reception total or a touchdown to salvage the week of any running back that faces the “Dirty Birds” defense. That’s going to be a near-impossible task for Mattison now that Cam Akers has become a factor in the backfield. Over the past two weeks, Mattison has out-rushed Akers by the slightest of margins (24-19). Both running backs have received four targets in that span as well. Although Mattison was the clear red zone threat on the ground, Akers is now taking work in that area of the field too. Overall it seems like everything is going wrong for a player who, at worst, looked like he would handle the vast majority of the work from the backfield.
Themi Michalakis
WR: D.K. Metcalf - Seattle Seahawks
D.K. Metcalf's name value vastly exceeds his actual fantasy production. Clocking in at a measly 11.0 Half PPR points per game, he’s been a replacement-level fantasy player in lineups for much of the 2023 season. Metcalf only has two weekly finishes inside the top 24 wide receivers. The last time it happened was in Week 3 against the Panthers. Since then, Metcal has been plagued by mediocre fantasy purposes, scoring less than 10 points in two of his next three games. Being the WR26 in PPG is not exactly what managers were hoping for when drafting Metcalf in the late 3rd to early 4th during draft season. Unfortunately, the downward trajectory looks like it’s going to continue as we head into Week 9.
The Seahawks face off against the Ravens– a team that boasts a high-quality defense that has been known to shut down the passing attack. The Ravens are middle of the pack against wide receivers, ranking 17th in True Matchup Rank and allowing 1% Points over Average to the position. To make matters worse, they’re a bottom-three matchup for quarterbacks, allowing negative (-)22% Points over Average to gunslingers. The Ravens are going to make things difficult for Geno Smith which cripples things even more for an already middling Metcalf. Unless he’s able to hit pay dirt, it could be another week outside the top 24 wide receivers for Metcalf. Temper your expectations.
Boyd Armstrong
TE: Cole Kmet - Chicago Bears
Cole Kmet has been surprisingly productive this season, both with Justin Fields and temporary starter Tyson Bagent under center. In his last outing, Kmet went a perfect 10 for 10 on his targets, hauling in all of his opportunities for 79 yards as the Bears leader in every receiving category. Kmet is currently averaging 8.4 PPG as the TE6 overall in fantasy but is about to face a season-worst matchup in Week 9. The Bears (2-6) take their talents to the bayou to face off against the hometown Saints (4-4) who enter the matchup as a heavy 8.0-point favorite. Vegas betting lines have the Over/Under projected at 41.5 points, lending a narrative for a positive game script for the Bears pass-catchers. Unfortunately for Kmet, he is unlikely to be a part of said positive production this week. The Saints are giving up just 309.0 total yards (4th) with 189.5 passing yards (7th) and 19.3 points (9th) per game this season. The defense is allowing just 4.6 PPG to opposing tight ends, ranked 28th in True Matchup Rank with a Points Over Average of negative (-)23.0% to the position. The Saints also concede a mere 12.5 combined PPG to opposing quarterbacks (-18.0% Points Over Average) with just 9.5 (-28.0% Points Over Average) of passing production. Kmet should be downgraded in all formats with Bagent set to get another start against a stout Saints secondary.
Matt Ward
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For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.