Broto Bets went 3-1-1 and gained 1.49 units in Week 8.
Jets -3 was our first push of the season and only got there due to a series of incredibly unfortunate events for the Giants that led to a game-winning FG for the Jets in OT. This was a much-needed winning week after losing over 7 units over the past two weeks. On to Week 9.
2023 Total: 21-17-1, +0.505u
Teasers:
Arizona Cardinals @ Cleveland Browns (-8) O/U: 37.5
Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints (-8.5) O/U: 41.5
Themi’s Teaser: Browns -2, Saints -2.5
Kyler Murray is still about a week away from starting, meaning fifth round rookie QB Clayon Tune will suit up for Arizona this week. Tune has only played a single career snap and faces a daunting Cleveland Browns defense. Cleveland has been in some close games recently, beating the 49ers and Colts by a combined 3 points and losing to Seattle by 4. Even when Joshua Dobbs was at QB, though, the Cardinals wouldn’t have been that threatening on either side of the ball. Their offense was statistically great to start the season but has been trending downwards as the weeks have gone on and sit at 19th in DVOA. On defense, they’re arguably the worst in the league. Deshaun Watson is also exepcted back for Cleveland, which should give the offense a boost over how they were performing with PJ Walker. Tease the Browns down to a win by about a field goal.
Tyson Bagent is a great story and a player I desperately want to see win but things are not going to be easy this week. The Saints continue to feature one of the best defenses in the league. Sure, they’ve allowed at least 27 points in each of their last 2 games and lost 26-9 against the division rival Buccaneers, but that doesn’t change the fact that they’ve been able to keep most offenses at bay. Outside of Tampa Bay, the Saints haven’t allowed more than 18 points to an offense ranking 20th or worse in offensive DVOA. They even shut-out the Patriots while putting up 34 points of their own. The Chicago Bears don’t have a great offense or defense and can’t even rely on Justin Fields to make magic happen this week. They’re 27th on offense this season and have only managed to beat up on weak Commanders and Raiders teams. Tease the Saints down to -2.5.
Washington Commanders (+3.5) @ New England Patriots O/U: 40
New York Giants (+1.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders O/U: 37
Themi’s Teaser: Commanders +9.5, Giants +7.5
Somehow, the Commanders keep making things difficult for the Eagles. This team really is an anomaly that needs to be studied. The Commanders are 3-5 but have had mixed results, as have the 2-6 Patriots. There never seems to be any rhyme or reason as to how successful either side can be but it’s clear that these teams are just a tier above the true bottom-feeders of the league. Washington has found much more offensive success but still ranks in the bottom-10 while New England has leaned on a strong defense to limit some of their mediocre opponents. They haven’t been especially dominant, though, and have been unable to stifle any competent offenses. Both of these teams have the potential to get blown out any day of the week but the small point total and Washington’s offensive success should keep them in this game. The loss of their two best pass-rushers doesn’t help an already struggling defense but they’ve got some playmakers who can step up. The Patriots have shown that they can find success even when people completely doubt them and Belichick may be able to dial up a pass-rush that can turn Sam Howell into dust, though it seems like Eric Bienemy is working overtime to create plays that will significantly reduce time to throw in the pocket. Take the Commanders at a favorable line to lose by up to 9.
New York may be struggling but the Raiders are in an endless freefall. With at least a few stars on each side of the ball you’d think that Vegas could at least look the part of a competent team. Their 3-5 record would indicate they’re at least passable but these last few weeks would indicate otherwise. After winning 2 straight home games against the Packers and Patriots, they’ve been outscored 56-26 in losses to Tyson Bagent’s Bears and the Detroit Lions. Now having fired their HC and GM while benching QB Jimmy Garoppolo, Mark Davis is truly ready to move on from this season. That doesn’t mean the team won’t try, and we’ve seen teams rally around an interim HC and win their first game, but I can’t imagine Vegas doing anything meaningful this season. They host the Giants who may look awful offensively but have a defense that has allowed just three touchdowns over the last three weeks. Let’s at least be realistic, how many games did you really expect them to win against the Cowboys, 49ers, Seahawks, Dolphins, Bills, and Jets anyways? Outside of their hometown rivals, all of those teams made the playoffs and they nearly beat the Jets with Tommy Devito at QB. While the final scores may not always indicate it, defense is a bright spot for this team and they can lean on it against Aidan O’Connell. Tyson Bagent wasn’t asked to do much through the air and the Bears blew out the Raiders. The Giants can find similar success on the ground while holding Vegas to a small point total. With an over/under of 37 and Daniel Jones returning, I’m betting on the Giants to cover.
Straight:
Colts -2.5 (-110)
The Carolina Panthers grabbed their first win of the season in a battle of the rookie QBs. C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young didn’t particularly impress as they both came off their bye weeks but Young and the Panthers did just enough to win 15-13. What’s interesting is that the Panthers, who did not have a single positive DVOA game at the bye, once again failed to post a positive DVOA. They didn’t even set a season-best in it. The one positive was that the defense had their best showing and did so against a red-hot rookie with some great weapons. This should still be viewed as a flukey win, or at least not something we should expect out of Carolina each and every week.
The Colts are nearly as good on both offense and defense and should take care of business against a struggling defense that no longer has a week of rest to lean on. Gardner Minshew should take advantage of a soft secondary that is desperately missing Jaycee Horn.
Giants ML (+105)
The teaser section covers my view on this game. While I expect the Giants to cover +7.5, I am willing to take the moneyline too.
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.