Sleepers and Busts: Week 4

SLEEPERS

QB: Daniel Jones - New York Giants

Facing two of the best defenses in the NFL in the first three games has not been the easiest on Daniel Jones and his fantasy managers. Jones has 11.5 points combined in his games against the Cowboys and 49ers but scored a week-leading 31.7 points against the Cardinals in Week 2. Facing a 20-point deficit, the Giants had no choice but to pass to stay in the game. Jones also added 59 yards and a TD on the ground. His dual-threat abilities will always help keep a steady floor and that should be no different against his upcoming opponents. The Seahawks are allowing 328 passing yards per game and are the 5th best quarterback matchup in Broto Fatnasy’s True Matchup Rank. The Seahawks have been especially exploitable by the tight end position in recent years which should be ideal for a Giants receiving group led by Darren Waller. The Seahawks haven't faced a mobile quarterback like Jones this season but even if they can stifle his rushing production, he faces one of the friendliest matchups to support his passing output. The Seahawks boast a top-5 offense and will likely build an early lead against the Giants' defense. A shootout would be ideal, and the 47.5-point total leads me to believe that’s the likely outcome. Fire Jones up on Monday Night Football with confidence!

Themi Michalakis

RB: James Conner - Arizona Cardinals

James Conner is the fantasy football sleeper gift that keeps on giving. Year after year it always seems like he is somehow a reliable fantasy option. Despite the hole that the lack of Kyler Murray has left on the Arizona offense, he is once again an RB1 in PPG as he’s currently the RB12 in Half-PPR scoring with 14.9 through three games. Conner has certainly been exceeding his pre-season ADP, finishing a week as an RB1 once and an RB2 twice thus far. Not bad for a guy in an offense led by Joshua Dobbs. This week the Cardinals are making their way to San Francisco for an in-division battle against the 49ers. On paper, it may seem like a bad matchup for Conner and crew but despite the 49ers boasting a quality defense, they have shown cracks in their armor at times. Kyren Williams exploded for 25 points against San Francisco in week two, finishing as the RB4 overall for the week. On top of that, Matt Breida even managed to score a touchdown during Saquon Barkley’s absence in week three and finished as a top-24 option. With almost 20 touches a game, Conner is who the Arizona offense has run through so far, and I don’t expect that to change. He is averaging over 88 rushing yards per game and has quite the nose for the endzone, scoring in two out of three games so far. With how he’s been performing, there will be plenty of opportunities for Conner to touch the ball and produce fantasy points for managers who are riding the hot hand into Week 4. 

Boyd Armstrong

WR: Jakobi Meyers - Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders (1-2) are on the road to face the Chargers (1-2) in an AFC West matchup between two division Rivals. The Chargers defense has been one of the easiest to exploit in the early stages of the season, allowing a league-leading 473.3 Total Yards (32nd) and 337.0 Passing Yards (32nd) to their opposition this season. The Chargers are also conceding 29.0 points per game during the first three ranks, ranking 28th in the league. They have conceded 42.7 PPG to wideouts this season, equating to 39.3% over the expected average with a True Matchup Rank of 5th for the position while also allowing 22.4 Points per game of passing production to opposing quarterbacks, ranked 3rd. Insert Jakobi Meyers, who is abhorrently being ranked as the WR37 in Half-PPR scoring this week. The Raiders receiver has posted two sensational outings as the Raiders number two pass-catcher alongside Davante Adams. In fact, it was Meyers, not Adams, who led the Raiders in targets and receptions during Week 1 (Meyers: 9 REC/10 TGT/81 YDS/2 TD, Adams: 6 REC/9 TGT/66 YDS/0 TD). Unfortunately, Meyers was forced to exit that contest after absorbing a wildly illegal hit, missing the following week while working through concussion protocol. The crafty wideout returned in Week 3, finding incredible utility with seven receptions for 85 yards on 12 targets while Adams commanded a team-leading 20 opportunities. There is a succinct pecking order of WR1 and WR2 on the Raiders offense but that is by no means a detriment against Meyers’ talent or value on your fantasy rosters. Through two games played, Meyers has averaged 8.0 Receptions, 11.0 Targets, 83.0 Yards, and one touchdown. He may not have the Alpha role of Adams but Meyers is a must-start player whenever healthy.

Matt Ward

TE: Pat Freiermuth - Pittsburgh Steelers

Pat Freiermuth is inexplicably amongst the most underrated players in all of football. The Steelers' tight end has consistently operated as one of the best young stars at the position, outperforming all expectations of a tight end’s career arc with his well-rounded skill set. Coming off a 13.1-point outing in Week 3, Freiermuth continues to be wildly overlooked as a viable starter in your fantasy lineups, currently ranked as the TE17 in Half-PPR formats. The Steelers (2-1) travel to face the Texans (1-2) in a Week 4 matchup between two young quarterbacks as Kenny Pickett and C.J. Stroud go to battle. The Texans' defense has been overachieving as a stout unit, capable of slowing the passing production of their opponents. Fortunately, the team has yet to find an answer for stymying the point totals of opposing tight ends. The Texans are currently conceding 10.2 PPG to the tight end position, a 50.9% increase over the expected average, ranked 10th in True Matchup Rank this season. The absence of Diontae Johnson coupled with George Pickens’ inconsistent development and the decline of Allen Robinson and Najee Harris place Freiermuth in a smash spot to outperform his projections against a beatable Texans defense.

Matt Ward

BUSTS

QB: Dak Prescott - Dallas Cowboys

I’m still a believer in Dak Prescott and the Cowboys passing game but you can’t deny that he’s letting you down from a fantasy perspective. The team blew out the Giants and Jets to start the season before facing an uphill climb out of nowhere against the Cardinals. The shock and awe of the Cardinals' offense is no excuse, as Prescott has failed to do much this season even with a high-volume passing attack. The Cowboys now draw the Patriots in Week 4 who boast the 3rd hardest matchup for quarterbacks, per True Matchup Rank. Prescott’s struggles may continue, at least for one more week. Both Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa struggled against the Patriots' defense and while they still finished with a modest floor they didn’t provide the points you want out of a top starter. Prescott may be a good enough quarterback in real life to lead a talented Cowboys team to plenty of victories and even a division title but he’s extremely unlikely to give you the scoring ceiling necessary to be confident in starting a presumably top-tier quarterback. There are a few streamers worth taking a shot at if you can’t get this week’s sleeper. Unless your waiver wire is completely barren I’d be benching Prescott in leagues with 12 or fewer teams.

Themi Michalakis

RB: Joe Mixon - Cincinnati Bengals

Google the word “stingy” and a picture of the Titans' run defense will pop up as the top result. They have been shutting down opposing running backs week after week. Here’s a look at how the first three games went for those who ran against the Titans:

• Jerome Ford - 10 attempts for 18 yards (1.8 YPC)

• Josh Kelley - 13 attempts for 39 yards (3 YPC) 

• Jamaal Williams - 18 attempts for 45 yards (2.5 YPC)

The Titans' defense is giving up just 2.48 YPC to opposing running backs on the ground to start the season. Two of the three names listed finished the week outside of the top 36 positional assets in Half-PPR scoring. That is terrifying for fantasy managers who are relying on any production from the running back matched up against them. This week Joe Mixon managers who are on the hot seat. With one RB3 and two RB2 weekly finishes, Joe Mixon has been a startable player, but not a great fantasy asset through the first three games of the year. That first top-12 weekly finish is still an unchecked box for this season. He’s currently the RB19 in PPG with 11.3 in-half PPR. Like years past with Mixon, the volume is going to be there for him. He has had 17+ touches in all of the first three games. Mixon is staring down an undeniable opportunity share but the Titans' run defense is perfectly capable of shutting down any opposing rushers, regardless of the volume attached. Mixon still has the touchdown upside needed to finish the day with a good fantasy performance but I’d prefer to put my proverbial chips in a different pot with how elite the Titans run defense has looked. Keep your expectations low for the Bengals starting running back. 

Boyd Armstrong

WR: Christian Kirk - Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars (1-2) travel to their home away from home as they host the Falcons (2-1) in the NFL’s annual International Series in London, England. Trevor Lawrence and the offensive weapons have struggled to find continuity within their rhythm after dropping two consecutive games to the Chiefs and the Texans where they combined for just 26 points against their opponents. Christian Kirk was the go-to receiver during those contests, effectively changing the identity and success of the team while the elected to force-feed the slot receiver as opposed to developing a continued rapport with Lawrence and star wideout Calvin Ridley. Expect Doug Pederson and the coaching staff to lean on their top receiver more as the season progresses, limiting Kirk’s target total and production ceiling with reduced opportunities. Week 4 should mark the jumping point for said changes as the Jaguars wide receiver corps faces a tough Falcons defense who have allowed just 170.0 passing yards (4th) and 18.0 points per game (7th) while conceding a mere 21.5 combined fantasy points to wideouts (-31.5% Points Over Average), ranked 31st in True Matchup Rank to the position. I have full confidence that Lawrence and company will squeak out a win on their foreign home turf but anticipating continued success from Kirk is a bet best left off the table.

Matt Ward

TE: David Njoku - Cleveland Browns

David Njoku has done absolutely nothing this season to earn a Week 4 expert consensus ranking of TE13 in Half-PPR scoring. The Browns tight end is averaging a menial 4.07 Half-PPR points per game, ranked as the TE29 and 258th player overall in fantasy this season. Yet somehow, he remains favored in nearly all consensus rankings to turn his slow start around as the Browns (2-1) host the Ravens (2-1) in a heated matchup between two bitter in-division rivals. Those foolish enough to rank Njoku as a fringe TE1 must not have taken into account that the Ravens defense has conceded an average of just 2.8 PPG to tight ends this season, ranking 32nd in True Matchup Rank as the best defense in football at shutting down opposing tight ends. The Ravens have conceded a stunning negative (-)67.4% below the expected average of fantasy production to the position this season, allowing just 200.0 total passing yards (11th) and 18.3 points per game to opposing offenses. Furthermore, Deshaun Watson has appeared wholly incapable as an NFL quarterback, regressing to a career-low YDS/ATT (6.6 YDS) in his second season as the Browns quarterback. Njoku will not come anywhere near my starting lineups this week and will be on the hot seat as a potential name to drop in favor of high-upside streaming matchups.

Matt Ward

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