A 3-2 Week 3 loses 0.13 units, our first loss of the season, but we are primed to bounce back in Week 4!
2023 Total: 7-3, +2.44u
Teasers:
Last year my teaser legs hit 78.46% of the time and I’m looking to hit a similar profitability mark in 2023. Things are going to be slightly different this year. Instead of giving individual legs that you can mix and match, I’ll be giving you the actual bet to place to make tracking profitability easier to display. Feel free to mix and match on your own since lines on sportsbooks available to you may differ based on your location or time of reading.
All teasers are 2-team/6-point teasers at one unit unless otherwise noted. Make sure to only bet teasers at -120 or better.
Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) @ New York Jets O/U: 42.5
New England Patriots @ Dallas Cowboys (-6.5) O/U: 43.5
Themi’s Teaser: Chiefs -2.5, Cowboys -0.5
As the 6th best team by DVOA and 3rd best team by DAVE, it is quite clear that the Chiefs are just a very good team. Their offense may still be lacking a true WR1, and they did fall to a very talented Lions team and struggle against the Jaguars, but the Jets just don’t possess the firepower to take down a team like this. Their defense can try and stifle Mahomes as much as they can, but they will not be able to keep him down forever.
Furthermore, the Jets possess the worst offense in the league. Their playmakers just can’t overcome how awful the QB play is. Zach Wilson is PFF’s 32nd ranked QB, only ahead of Bryce Young and Desmond Ridder. Patrick Mahomes is, expectedly, 2nd. The Jets were letting CeeDee Lamb and Stefon Diggs run wild on them and Travis Kelce and the gang could feast as well. Right now, the Jets have done better against the run than the pass. Patrick Mahomes can carve them up as well as anyone.
Dallas struggled in what should have been a cakewalk matchup against Arizona but I think they had to have slept on Arizona too much in what now looks like a classic trap game. Now at home with plenty to keep playing for, the Cowboys are in a good position to win against a decent Patriots team. Mac Jones isn’t quite elite but he’s performing at a high level in this Bill O’Brien offense. The Pats rank 14th in DVOA and 15th in DAVE while the Cowboys rank 7th and 4th in those stats, respectively.
I do not believe in the Cowboys to cover the original spread but a slight win is one of the highest percentage plays you will get all week. Things will be ugly but trust the better overall team to get things going again despite the difficult opponent.
Baltimore Ravens (+1.5) @ Cleveland Browns O/U: 41
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5) O/U: 44.5
Themi’s Teaser: Ravens +8.5, Eagles -2.5
Baltimore had a rough going last week. While the defense did all they could to keep them in the game, the offensive woes, fumbling issues and an awful missed call on their final drive in regulation all contributed towards a loss in OT. The Browns now present their own problem, ranking as the top defense by DVOA and EPA. Outside of the two defensive scores the Steelers had on them, the Browns have only allowed 19 points across 3 games.
Context matters, of course, as they have played against the struggling Bengals in the rain, the Steelers and the Titans. Are any of these offenses scaring you right now Regardless, they have impressed and their defense ranks 2nd in the more pre-season projection oriented DAVE.
The offense isn’t nearly as impressive. Last week though, Deshaun Watson had his best passing game in Cleveland against a very exploitable Titans secondary. The Ravens are not nearly as susceptible through the air, ranking 6th in both dropback EPA and DVOA. They’re also quite good against the run while also presenting the best offense the Browns have faced all season. With a miniscule point total, this game is close enough to tease the Ravens to only lose by about a TD. Expect a lot of punting and head-scratching decisions.
Sam Howell was having a nice start to the season but a real test against the Bills went horribly. wrong for the young QB. Four interceptions, 3 total points, and an overal abysmal offensive showing led to a 37-3 blowout loss at home. Now heading into Philadelphia, this team looks hopeless. Washington may be 2-1 but they were only a few plays from 1-2 or 0-3. Washington should bounce back from this a bit but they are still outmatched here. They famously destroyed the Eagles last season to end their 8-0 start to the season but an outlier game isn’t enough to deter me. Philadelphia has struggled on defense this year but still has more than enough in their arsenal to win by at least 3. I don’t usually do this but I’m teasing this game by 7 points to make sure I go over the key number in 3. Make sure that while you tease 2-team 6-point teasers at -120, you only bet a teaser like this at -140 or better.
Straight:
Steelers -2.5 (-120)
Steelers/Texans O42.5 Points (-110)
The Steelers are allowing the 12th highest DVOA to WR1s and the 3rd highest to WR2s. Houston ranks closer to the middle against WRs but, like the Raiders, they’re quite bad at stopping TEs. Pat Freiermuth may not have exploded against Las Vegas last week but he had his best game of the season, catching 3 of 4 targets for 41 yards and a TD. The struggling Steelers run game also gets a better matchup against the 31st ranked Texans run defense. While Pittsburgh boasts a top defense, they are clearly beatable. C.J. Stroud can sling it and I’m expecting a game that just goes over the point total. These teams are close in DVOA but DAVE still heavily favors Pittsburgh and their exceptional defense. Take Pittsburgh to win.
Seahawks -2 (-110)
The Seahawks may have one of the worst defenses this season but they boast a top-5 offense. Geno Smith continues to defy the odds following his 9th year breakout in 2022. Smith ranks 8th in EPA+CPOE composite and has led the team to 2 key wins after falling flat against the Rams in Week 1. The Giants will be using this matchup as a get-right game but the massive offensive difference and similarly bad defenses makes me lean Seattle on the road.
Bengals -2.5 (-105)
It wasn’t easy to watch but the Bengals got their first win of the season. The Bengals have had some early season stumbles in the Joe Burrow era. It’s understandable that they would struggle against two great division rival defenses and the Titans don’t seem to pose that same threat. Deshaun Watson didn’t play incredibly but he did exactly what he needed to do against them and their soft pass defense. Joe Burrow has a trio of receivers that he can utilize to beat them. Some may think that Burrow’s struggles come from offensive line issues, something that has been noticed since the team selected Ja’Marr Chase over Penei Sewell with their first pick in 2021. However, Burrow is actually rarely being pressured or sacked compared to the rest of the league. His calf is still clearly an issue but he has been logging encouraging practices. The Titans have a massive advantage in the run game as the Bengals defense ranks 28th against it in DVOA. The Bengals will have their hands full but they have the ability to win this game and it should be by a field goal or more.
Jaguars -3 (-110)
Forcing Desmond Ridder to throw may prove to be dangerous if he can actually get a catchable target to Kyle Pitts and Drake London. Too bad for the Falcons though, as he has not been coming close to getting it done. Ridder is PFF’s lowest graded QB and they have a bottom-5 passing offense. As you may expect, their rushing rank is top-10 but that won’t always be enough to win. Like Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence is a young and talented QB who has struggled to open the season, but for different reasons. Drops have hurt Lawrence badly. His receivers have dropped nine passes so far which gives him the 7th highest pass attempt drop rate in the league. Things should eventually click as the Jags and PFF’s 3rd ranked QB head into familiar territory on Sunday morning. London has become a second home for the team which should make home-field advantage much better for them compared to teams that seldom play there. I can believe in Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars bouncing back from a terrible start to the year. I don’t have that same faith for a QB that is just not very good.
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By Themi Michalakis
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.