Clay's Corner: Week 4 DFS Plays

Week 3 ended with several wild performances, shaking up the landscape of the DFS slate entirely! We nailed some crucial cash and GPP picks in Week 3, let's see how those picks fared:

QB: Justin Herbert- 32.3, Kirk Cousins- 29.68, Jared Goff- 19.02, CJ Stroud- 20.6

RB: Raheem Mostert- 45.2, Isiah Pacheco- 15.8,  

WR: Justin Jefferson- 30.9, Keenan Allen- 48.46, Tank Dell- 28.5, 

TE: TJ Hockenson- 14.8, Jake Ferguson- 9.8

D/ST: Bills D/ST- 32, CLE D/ST- 12,

The Tua/Mostert/Hill stack was a favorite one and unsurprisingly produced my highest-scoring GPP lineup for Week 3. 

My best GPP lineup finished 4,080th out of 97,785 entries, here is the lineup:

QB: Tua Tagovailoa- 31.36

RB: Raheem Mostert- 45.2

RB: Kendre Miller- 4.4

WR: Tyreek Hill- 33.7

WR: Calvin Ridley- 7.0

WR: Marvin Mims Jr.- 16.6

TE: Jake Ferguson- 9.8

FLEX: Alexander Mattison- 17.5

D/ST: Bills D/ST- 32.0

Total: 197.56 Points

Time to identify more winners this week! Let's win some money in Week 4!

Week 4 DraftKings Slate

Games to Target:

1. MIA @ BUF – 53.5 O/U

Implied totals: MIA 25.25; BUF 28.25

2. LV @ LAC – 48.5 O/U

Implied totals: LV 21.5; LAC 27

3. ARI @ SF – 44.5 O/U

Implied totals: ARI 15.25; SF 29.25

4. MIN @ CAR- 45.5 O/U

Implied totals: MIN 24.5; CAR 21

Top Cash Plays: 

Quarterbacks

Much like Week 3, pricing is wide open for Week 4. 

Justin Herbert ($7,800)

Justin Herbert is taking the next step in fantasy with the help of OC Kellen Moore. Herbert ranks 5th in yards/att at 7.8 and 11th in aDOT at 8.21. Herbert also ranks highly in the following categories:

• 3rd in Pass Attempts (121)

• 2nd in Completions (90)

• 2nd in Completion Percentage (74.4%)

• 5th in Passing Yards per Game (313)

The Chargers offense is a well-oiled machine ready to steamroll a floundering Raiders' defense that has allowed the 9th most points to oppositions this season. The O/U for this tilt is at 48.5, the second highest of the Week 4 slate. 

Tua Tagovailoa ($7,400)

Head coach Mike McDaniel has evolved the Dolphins' offense beyond expectations. They rank first in the league in total scoring and offense after providing fireworks to the tune of 70 points in Week 3. Tua Tagovailoa and company draw the Bills in Week 4, laying the way for a potential shootout as the Bills have scored 85 points in their last two contests. As impressive as Justin Herbert’s statistical resume was above, Tua has been even better. Here are some of Tua’s ranks:

• 1st in True Trow Value (TTV)

• 1st in Yards Per Attempt (10.1)

• 5th in aDOT (9.05)

• 9th in Deep Completion Percentage (46.7)

• 3rd in Yards Per Game (341.3)

Even though the Bills stymied QB Sam Howell forcing 9 sacks and 4 interceptions, the Miami offense presents an entirely different animal. Tua has scored 30 or more fantasy points in 2 of his 3 games this season and should continue to produce despite a tougher opponent.

Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,300)

Jimmy Garoppolo cranked out 25 fantasy points last week against a blitz-heavy Steelers defense. The Raiders' quarterback now gets a toothless Chargers defense, who’ve allowed the most passing yards this season at 1,011 while conceding the 3rd highest yards/att at 8.5. Garoppolo will have to toss the rock to keep pace in this AFC West thriller. 

Other options: Justin Herbert is the highest I would pay up for a quarterback in cash this week. Brock Purdy ($5,900), and C.J. Stroud ($5,600) make great cheap options. If you want to push the envelope at quarterback this week, Andy Dalton makes a great play if Bryce Young misses another game as the Vikings have allowed the 7th most passing yards this season with 785. 

Running Backs

Tony Pollard ($7,800) 

The only thing Pollard was missing from his box score in Week 3 was the touchdown that could have put lineups over the top. He has back-to-back games of 20+ carries, further cementing his workload as the RB1 for the Cowboys. Even though the Patriots are a tough matchup, Pollard is getting enough work to overcome any defensive woes. Pollard currently ranks 5th in targets (14), 2nd in receptions (12), 10th in True Target Value (TTaV of 1.7), and 1st in red zone opportunities with 27. 

Raheem Mostert ($6,500) 

Mostert went nuclear in Week 3, scoring 45.2 fantasy points in a non-competitive game against the Broncos. Mostert has double-digit carries in every game this season and ranks 9th in WOPR among all running backs. Rookie running back Devone Achane will certainly take some work but there should be plenty of scoring opportunities to go around on this high-powered offense.

D’Andre Swift ($5,700)

Somehow Swift is a dirt cheap DFS play after putting up over 300 yards rushing in the past two games. Swift has wrestled his way to the top of the Eagles' depth chart with no signs of relinquishing his role anytime soon. He saw the lion’s share of rushing work and snaps in Week 3 and tied for Kenneth Gainwell with two targets as a pass-catcher. The Commanders have given up the 11th most rushing yards at 386 yards and the 6th-highest YPC at 4.8 this season.

Other considerations: Zack Moss ($6,000): League-leading opportunity share, Kyren Williams ($6,000): 17 targets in the past 2 games. 

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($8,000) 

For cash games we want volume and Davante Adams is the epitome of volume, showcasing his elite Alpha target-earning prowess in Week 3 with 20 targets. As previously mentioned, the Chargers have allowed the most passing yards of any defense this season, allowing Davante to smash through projections once again in Week 4. 

Tyreek Hill ($9,200)

When you combine heavy volume with freakish speed, you get Tyreek Hill. Hill is 2nd in the NFL in Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR). Davante Adams mustered six receptions on eight targets for 84 yards and one touchdown against the Bills secondary in Week 2 who bounced back by stymying the Commanders in Week 3. Hill is in line to do some damage in Week 4 and should be considered a strong play as the Dolphins offense appears unstoppable.

Nathaniel "Tank" Dell ($4,600) 

Tank Dell continues to thrive in Texans offense as he builds an unbreakable rapport with fellow rookie C.J. Stroud. Dell built off his strong Week 2 performance of 7 REC/72 YDS/1 TD with a 5 REC/145 YDS/1 TD outing in Week 3. Dell has led the Texans in WOPR and targets in two consecutive contests. Although the Steelers tend to limit opponents through the air, they can still be beaten as evidenced by Davante Adams roasting them in Week 3 with 13 receptions for 172 yards and two touchdowns.

Tight Ends

T.J. Hockenson ($6,500)

T.J. Hockenson’s price stays the same as the previous slate despite the star tight end earning a season-high 11 targets in Week 3, converting his opportunities into 8 receptions for 78 yards. Hockenson is dominating the tight end position this season, here are some of his ranks amongst his peers:

• 8th highest WOPR (41.0%)

• 5th highest Target Share (20.7%)

• 1st in Targets (28)

• 1st in Receptions (23)

• 2nd in Receiving Yards (179)

• 1st in True Target Value (4.95)

• 2nd in Yards per Game (59.7)

• 2nd in Red Zone opportunities (7)

Hockenson is too cheap for as dominant as he has been. Jam him in those cash lineups and profit.

Jake Ferguson ($3,500)

I’m going back to the well with Jake Ferguson for a cheap tight end cash play this week. Ferguson is 6th among all tight ends in targets and sports a True Target Value (TTaV) of 2.17 (2nd). Ferguson also has the 8th highest target share among tight ends this season at 17.5%, ranking 1st in total Red Zone opportunities at the position with nine through three games. Bill Belichick is known for taking away the best weapon of opposing offenses and likely has his eyes set on shutting down Tony Pollard and CeeDee Lamb this weekend. The Patriots' defense may not cue in on Fergosun's utility, so start him with confidence in cash to save some salary. 

D/ST 

Cleveland Browns ($2,800) 

The Brown’s defensive line dominated in Week 3. They constantly harassed Ryan Tannehill forcing five sacks on 13 quarterback pressures, helping to maintain their number-one ranking in pressure rate across the NFL (32.3%). Enter a pedestrian and banged-up Ravens offensive line who have little-to-no chance of stopping Myles Garrett and company, allowing for another robust performance in Week 4. 

Favorite stacks:

1. Tua Tagovailoa + Raheem Mostert/Devone Achane + Tyreek Hill with Stefon Diggs/Gabe Davis or Dalton Kincaid/Devin Knox bring back. Although this will be one of the most popular games on the slate, there are many ways/combinations to make a unique lineup. 

2. Justin Herbert + Keenan Allen + Gerald Everett/Donald Parham with Davante Adams/Jacobi Meyers/Josh Jacobs bring back. Same concept here with the Bills/Miami game, this game will be popular however there are many avenues to become unique. 

3. Brock Purdy + CMC + Deebo/Aiyuk/Kittle with Marquise Brown/James Conner bring back. You can skip out a Cardinals bringback if you’d like but the offense has been surprisingly useful at the early stages of the season. 

4. Kirk Cousins + Justin Jefferson + TJ Hockenson/Jordan Addison with Adam Thielen bring back. The Vikings are losing games and passing at a frenetic pace, creating an excellent target for any DFS lineup.

GPP Plays:

Quarterbacks High End

Josh Allen ($8,200)

Playing Josh Allen this week is a contrarian move considering the abundance of riches in the wide receiver pool. Although expensive, Allen has historically accrued excellent numbers against the Dolphins defense. In 10 career games against Miami, Allen is averaging 268.4 passing yards and 2.7 passing touchdowns along with 55.4 rushing yards and 0.4 rushing touchdowns. If you convert Allen’s career average stats against the Dolphins into fantasy points, he’s averaged 29.4 PPG (4pt Passing TDs) against his divisional foes. We all witnessed the Dolphins thumping the Broncos' defense last week and if this game goes back and forth Allen could keep pace while putting up incredible numbers. 

Anthony Richardson ($6,700)

If Anthony Richardson had finished a full 4 quarters in Week 2, he wouldn’t be this cheap. He was on his way to a huge performance against the Texans (17.74 Points), scoring two rushing touchdowns in the first half before leaving early with a concussion. If Richardson is cleared to play in Week 4 (currently Questionable with a concussion) he gets an interesting matchup against a depleted yet overachieving Rams defense. The Rams rank as the 11th-best matchup for opposing rushing quarterbacks this season, paving the way for another big performance from the rookie on the ground. If Richardson is cleared, slide him into some GPP lineups. 

Quarterbacks Low End

Russell Wilson ($5,800) 

Wilson hasn’t been a total abomination, unlike the Bears defense. This is purely a matchup-based play. 

Andy Dalton ($5,100) 

DFS players should be salivating at the smorgasbord of high-end wide receivers in play this week while trying to find value at the quarterback spot. To accommodate those wonderful wide receiver salaries, we must make sacrifices, insert the "Red Rifle" Andy Dalton. Dalton came off the bench with less than a full week to prep, throwing for 361 yards and two touchdowns. If Dalton gets the nod again, there is not a better matchup to start the veteran than this week against the Vikings. The Vikings have allowed the 7th most passing yards this season and are tied for the 3rd most passing TDs allowed at seven. Dalton should also have plenty of time to throw in the pocket as the Vikings defense ranks 26th in pressure rate at 16.8%. 

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey ($9,200) 

This is a low-roster/salary play. I do not expect CMC to garner much attention in lineups at his high price tag, however, this will cause significantly different builds making your lineup unique. McCaffrey has been the most consistent running back drafted in the early rounds this season. Here are some of his ranks among his positional peers:

• 8th in Targets (13)

• 5th in Receptions (11)

• 8th in Targets (13)

• 6th in Target Share (15.1%)

• 3rd in Route Participation (73.6%)

• 8th in True Target Value

• 1st in Rushing Yards (353)

• 1st in Rushing Yards Per Game (117.6)

• 7th in Yards Per Carry (5.9)

• 9th in Yards Per Touch (6.0)

• 3rd in Evaded Tackles (14)

• 1st in Yards Created (334)

• 7th In yards Created Per Touch (4.70)

• 3rd in TDs (3)

• 2nd in Red Zone Opportunites (16)

• 4th in Snap Share (80.9%)

• 8th in Opportunity Share (76.0%)

Roschon Johnson ($4,900)

Let’s get spicy! Roschon Johnson ranks 11th among running backs in WOPR and faces the 3rd best matchup for the position according to Broto’s True Matchup Rank in the Denver Broncos. The Broncos have allowed the most rushing yards this season with 533, tied for the most rushing touchdowns allowed at seven while conceding the 2nd highest YPC at 5.6. All roads point to Johnson making some waves in Week 4. 

James Cook ($6,300)

James Cook has maintained 10+ rushes and three or more targets in every game this season. He also sports an 18.1% WOPR, ranking 17th. He provides great leverage against the Bills passing attack, which I expect to be heavily rostered. Cook can get the job done in GPPs. He ranks 8th in both targets and receptions, 9th in aDOT, and 5th in yards/carry amongst running backs. Miami ranks as the 2nd best matchup for opposing running backs per Broto’s True Matchup Rank. 

Wide Receivers

Ja’Marr Chase ($7,800)

With the Bengals season on the line, Ja’Marr Chase and the defense came to the rescue. Chase willed his way to 12 receptions for 141 yards, helping move him to 10th in WOPR among all receivers. He currently sits 7th in receptions, 8th in targets, and 6th in red zone opportunities. Chase will look to inflate those numbers against the pass-funnel defense that is the Titans. The Titans have allowed the 5th most passing yards this season and rank as the 4th best matchup for opposing wideouts. 

Deebo Samuel ($6,900) 

DraftKings pricing can be funny and inexplainable at times. Deebo burned the Giants’ secondary for 129 yards and one touchdown in Week 3 and only received a $300 price increase. Deebo gets an even better matchup against the Cardinals, who rank 3rd in wide receiver True Matchup Rank. Exploit the low rostership and plug Deebo into GPP lineups. 

Tight Ends

I’m sticking with the cash section mostly for GPPs. There are a lot of landmines at tight end this week so I’m using a small pool of players for Week 4. 

TE Donald Parham Jr. ($2,800)

Parham had two touchdowns last week and his workload should only increase with the season-ending injury to WR Mike Williams. Parham is tied for 4th amongst tight ends in red zone targets with four. Parham will also enjoy a plus matchup against the Raiders, who rank as the best possible matchup for opposing tight ends per True Matchup Rank. 

D/ST

Houston Texans ($2,900)

The Texans stumped Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars last week and now draw the Steelers, whose offensive line has allowed pressure on 36% of dropbacks this season. The Texans make for an interesting gamble at a cheap price. 

Lone Ranger (sub $5,000 player that can score over 10 fantasy points)

Tank Dell crushed and aided the Texans in their upset of the Jaguars. 

Rasheed Shaheed tried to help me go 2-0 but just came up short with only a punt return TD. 

WR Adam Thielen ($4,500) & WR Marvin Mims Jr. ($3,900)

Adam Thielen and Andy Dalton connected early and often in Week 3. Expect more of the same against an inept Vikings defense. 

I do not expect Marvin Mims Jr. to continue hitting huge plays each week however, if Sean Payton is smart (he used to be), he’ll increase Mims' volume. Mims has accumulated 186 yards on 5 receptions with 1 TD in his past two games. I anticipate the Bears' defense needing a GPS to find Mims in Week 4. 

Have a great Week 4 of DFS! Win big and be kind to each other!

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By Clayton Jones aka @FF_Pulse_88 on Twitter and on The Fantasy Football by Broto app!