Week 4 Buy Low and Sell High

With Week 3 of the NFL season in the books, Lead Writer Matt Ward has his eyes on four buy-low targets and three sell-high targets heading into Week 4! Take advantage of your league mates by acquiring star players at their lowest value and dealing away volatile players at their highest values!

BUY LOW

Calvin Ridley WR - Jacksonville Jaguars

Each transaction in fantasy football is individual to the variables that exist within your league. With that said, there is a highly likely chance that the managers who invested draft capital into Calvin Ridley have started their 2023 fantasy seasons with a losing record. If those aforementioned pretenses ring true in your leagues, now is the time to attack the trade market. The Jaguars offense is down bad, losing back-to-back outings against the Chiefs and Texans while combining for just 26 points in those games. The only semblance of offensive success the Jaguars have squeezed together at the early stages of the season came in Week 1 when the offense funneled targets through Ridley. The veteran wideout posted eight receptions on a team-high 11 targets in the team’s season opener, popping off for 101 yards and one touchdown. Following a 24.1-point outing, Ridley has combined for just 12.1 points in the past two contests as Christian Kirk became the top target. Do not anticipate Kirk’s usage to be a continuing trend. Offensive adjustments are certainly on the horizon as the Jaguars look to steer a quickly veering ship back on its path. Expect Ridley to regain his role as the team’s top wideout with positive regression toward his Week 1 scoring totals. 

Darren Waller TE - New York Giants

Darren Waller has led the Giants in targets for three consecutive weeks, solidifying himself as the unquestioned top pass-catcher. The positional upside Waller provides from the tight end designation as the team’s number one target earner is increasingly rare to find in a barren tight end landscape. The production has admittedly been below expectations considering the usage but the high-water line of Waller’s ceiling should even out as the season progresses. He is currently pulling a 20.8% target share with a 20.0% target rate and route participation of 97.0%. Waller currently ranks first in all receiving categories amongst Giants players but is averaging just 8.6 PPG as the TE6 this season. There are few players in the league with an unwavering opportunity share at the tight end position and Waller boasts all of the positive peripherals to suggest increased production as he tops all players at the position in average Yards Per Team Pass Attempt this season. The Giants offense may be inconsistently frustrating from week to week but Waller’s unmatched usage appears encouragingly sticky.

Brandon Aiyuk WR - San Francisco 49ers

Brandon Aiyuk opened up the 2023 season with an absolute decimation of the Steelers' secondary, posting a 100.0% catch rate with eight receptions on a team-high eight targets for 129 yards and two touchdowns while leading the team in snap percentage and route participation. Deebo Samuel, on the other hand, saw seven targets, catching five for 55 in the 49ers opening game. Aiyuk faced injury (shoulder) in the following game but had a team-high six targets with three receptions for 43 yards at the time of departure. Samuel was leaned upon after his teammate exited, catching six of nine targets for 63 yards while reprising his “wide-back” role with an additional 38 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown on five carries. Aiyuk remained sidelined for Week 3, allowing Samuel to continue his reign as the team’s top receiving weapon. Although we have just one and one-quarter games of data with both players on the field, it appears vastly apparent that Aiyuk is the true WR1 on the 49ers while Samuel maintains a high-value role as the do-it-all gadget weapon. The early-season sample size is a not-so-surprising continuation of Aiyuk and Samuel’s 2022 usage where the younger wideout pulled ahead of his veteran teammate as the 49ers' most effective wideout. Aiyuk is already back on the practice field to begin Week 4, logging limited participation in the team’s Monday morning routine. His return to the lineup should immediately decrease the overall target totals of every other member on the 49ers offense. Aiyuk has a top-15 positional finish in his 2023 range of outcomes and should be targeted on the trade market with that ceiling in mind.

SELL HIGH

Deebo Samuel WR - San Francisco 49ers

Hopping over to the other side of the formation with a similar disposition, managers should be looking to sell high on Deebo Samuel. The inevitable return of Brandon Aiyuk in the coming weeks could greatly suppress Samuel's ceiling of production as we have seen so often in past games that the duo share the field. Samuel’s low depth of target cannot withstand a major decrease in opportunity share and continued regression in rushing volume amidst the presence of Christian McCaffrey leaves the veteran wideout as a volatile boom-or-bust asset. Use Samuel’s early-season stretch of positive production as a jumping point in trade negotiations while attempting to upgrade the position with a similarly valued, yet more consistent, asset.

Jerome Ford RB - Cleveland Browns

The injury to Nick Chubb thrust Jerome Ford into a starting opportunity he is unequipped to handle. Ford salvaged a horrendously inefficient outing with two touchdowns (1 Rushing/1 Receiving) in the Browns Week 3 win over the Titans. The second-year back was bottled up as a rusher, posting a laughably menial 18 rushing yards on 10 carries (1.8 YPC) while sharing backfield work with not one, but six (6!!) different rushers (Strong, Watson, Hunt, Bryant, Goodwin, Moore). The Browns' lack of confidence in Ford was blatantly apparent as they were handing the ball off to a backup tight end on two separate occasions (Harrison Bryant: 2 CAR/4 YDS). The recent free agent signing of former Browns running back Kareem Hunt further cements the franchise’s unwillingness to lean on Ford as more than an early-down thumper. Hunt receiving just five fewer touches than Ford despite spending less than one week on the roster is a red flag that cannot go unnoticed. Shop Ford to any and all managers who believe his touchdown total from Week 3 is a predictive metric for continued positive production.

Romeo Doubs WR - Green Bay Packers

The Green Bay Packers' full starting lineup has yet to play a game together this season, skewing the usage and production stats for all members of the offense as major change is undoubtedly at the forefront. Star wide receiver Christian Watson has yet to suit up this season as he recovers from a nagging hamstring injury. Aaron Jones has missed two consecutive contests after showcasing himself as the team’s most talented offensive weapon in Week 1. Rookie wide receiver Jayden Reed has fluctuated with his opportunity share through three weeks but has been incredibly effective when called up this far. Fellow rookie Luke Musgrave continues to rapidly develop as a pass-catcher, further muddying the future opportunity shares amongst everyone in this offense. Watson should immediately be inserted as the top receiver upon arrival while Jones’ presence in the lineup could cap the availability of short targets for Doubs. Furthermore, Reed and Musgrave’s continued growth and development as rookies will likely outweigh Doubs’ need for routes/targets as the Packers offense becomes whole. There are simply too many mouths to feed on this offense, leaving Doubs starved for opportunities as the franchise favors the talents ahead of him. The inevitable return of Jones and Watson coupled with the continued development of Reed and Musgrave could greatly suppress Doubs’ target ceiling beyond a point of utility. The second-year wideout is a prime candidate to capitalize on rising value before the current offensive situation changes.

Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.

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By Matt Ward