Dynasty Market Report: Week 4

Managing a Dynasty roster is about building long-lasting success in the chaotic and unpredictable landscape of fantasy football. The idea should be to give yourself as many assets/bargaining chips as possible so that when you move all in, the deck is stacked in your favor. “We are card counters at the blackjack table, and we’re going to turn the odds at the casino.”

Today, we look at some intriguing assets in Dynasty, drawing unbiased values from Sleeper ADP, Dynasty League Football, and KeepTradeCut in an attempt to exploit certain market discrepancies. As always, we will be viewing these players and values through a Superflex lens.

WEEK 4 DYNASTY MARKET REPORT

Notable Market Risers

C.J. Stroud QB/Tank Dell WR/Nico Collins WR - Houston Texans

• The situational discount is no longer in effect as the Dynasty market has pushed C.J. Stroud’s consensus value to QB10/24th Overall. Stroud has posted three consecutive games with over 300 total yards (Passing+Rushing), joining Justin Herbert and Cam Newton as the only quarterbacks to accomplish that feat in their first three starts. Tank Dell and Nico Collins have been prime benefactors of Stroud's frenetic and historic passing pace with both receivers posting WR1 outings this season.

Kenneth Walker III RB - Seattle Seahawks

• Kenneth Walker III’s dynasty value has skyrocketed to RB5/28th Overall after three stellar outings from the second-year running back. Walker has pulled far away from every other member of the Seahawks depth chart, establishing himself as the unquestioned RB1 for the team. Walker has completely snuffed the utility of second-round rookie running back Zach Charbonnet in the process, causing a value dip for his rookie teammate on the opposite end of the market spectrum.

Jordan Love QB - Green Bay Packers

• Jordan Love has appeared wholly capable and confident in his first three starts, sporting two QB1 outings thus far (QB3/QB6) as well as a serviceable Superflex outing as the QB16 Overall in Week 2. Love still needs to clean up his efficiency as he has completed just 51 of 96 attempts (53.1 CMP%) this season. Nevertheless, the dynasty market is enamored with the young quarterback’s early-season successes.

T.J. Hockenson TE - Minnesota Vikings

• The Dynasty tight end landscape can rapidly shift at any moment. The mainstay assets that have reigned atop the value charts are beginning to dissipate as Travis Kelce ages, Kyle Pitts struggles, and players like Dallas Goedert, George Kittle, and Darren Waller fail to meet expectations in their increased age. T.J. Hockenson has since risen above nearly all the aforementioned players, sitting at the consensus TE2 on the Dynasty market, one spot up from his previous positional ranking in last week’s Dynasty Market Report: Week 3. Do not be shocked to see the star tight end surpass Travis Kelce as the number one tight end in Dynasty as the season progresses.

Brandon Aiyuk WR - San Francisco 49ers

• Brandon Aiyuk continues to rise on the Dynasty market despite missing most of Week 2 and all of Week 3 with a shoulder injury. Managers are fully anticipating a positive return to action from the 49ers top wideout, suggesting a market confidence toward regression from Deebo Samuel. One more positive performance from Aiyuk could skyrocket his value into the top 15 wide receivers in market value. It appears as if consensus rankings are already preparing for that outcome.

DeVon Achane RB - Miami Dolphins

• 203 rushing yards, 30 receiving yards, four total touchdowns, and 52.3 Half-PPR points later, rookie running back Devon Achane has catapulted up the market leaderboard as the RB12/63rd Overall (and rising) in Dynasty. Achane’s blazing Olympic-sprinter speed was on full display in the Broncos' 70-point shellacking of the Broncos in Week 3. Achane’s rookie youth and historic early-season production is more than enough to justify the young running back’s rising value.

Sam LaPorta TE - Detroit Lions

• Sam LaPorta is doing something incredibly rare, nay historic, this season as a rookie tight end. He’s producing. LaPorta has recorded five or more receptions in three consecutive contests, becoming the first rookie tight end in NFL history to accomplish the feat. The Dynasty market has assuredly taken notice, pushing LaPorta’s value up the board as the TE4 overall.

Notable Market Fallers

Drake London WR/Kyle Pitts TE - Atlanta Falcons

• Managers are growing increasingly impatient with the Falcons’ archaic run-first offense that refuses to use their two top-10 generational receiving talents. Both Kyle Pitts and Drake London are handcuffed to a system that consciously ignores the utility and talent of their best players. The range of outcomes for each asset is sky high with each pass-catcher having a top-5 positional ceiling. Unfortunately, a change of scenery may be the only way for Pitts and London to meet the said ceiling.

Saquon Barkley RB - New York Giants

• Saquon Barkley’s long list of unfortunate injuries has left managers in another tough spot to begin the 2023 season. Barkley was sidelined during Week 3 with an ankle injury, causing managers to take a long look toward the veteran running back’s future production and overall value as a Dynasty asset. The outcome of those future projections was a significant decrease in value for the Giants star rusher.

Justin Fields QB - Chicago Bears

• Dynasty managers are no longer willing to wait for Fields to develop as a passer. Unfortunately, said impatience may be entirely justified as it appears that the Bears franchise quarterback is regressing rather than improving. Fields amassed just 99 yards on 11/22 completions in Week 3. Head coach Matt Eberflus has also unwittingly suppressed Fields’ upside as a rushing quarterback, leaving the third-year signal-caller to suffer in a horrendously ineffective and remedial offense. Fields has plummeted over 50 spots in value this week, falling from a top-10 Dynasty quarterback to QB16/58th overall in consensus rankings.

D.J. Moore WR - Chicago Bears

• Cause and effect. Until the Bears can function within an offense that passes at a league-average rate all of the team’s receivers will continue to bleed value.

Daniel Jones QB - New York Giants

• Daniel Jones’ run as a fringe QB1 in Dynasty value was short-lived as the Giants' signal-caller has fallen to QB19/70th overall. The Giants offense as a whole has struggled through three games with their only respectable outing coming against a lowly Cardinals defense in Week 2. Jones even posted a QB1 overall finish that week against the Cardinals but it had little to no effect on stopping his freefall down the Dynasty ladder after failing to meet the ridiculously high expectations set out for him by the fantasy football community.

Derrick Henry RB - Tennessee Titans

• Henry is conceding massive amounts of volume to rookie running back Tajae Spears while continuously losing effectiveness as a rusher. Henry has broken just one tackle this season according to PFF, and has played less than 10.0% of the Titans' third down snaps this season. His age and growing inefficiencies have the market panicking to the tune of a 22-spot drop for Henry as the veteran running back falls outside of the top 24 players at the position (RB25/100th Overall).

Dynasty Waiver Adds

Joshua Dobbs QB - Arizona Cardinals

• Somehow Joshua Dobbs is only rostered in 51.5% of Superflex leagues despite producing solid QB2 numbers as the Cardinals cemented starting quarterback. There is no justifiable reason to have ANY starting quarterback in the NFL on waivers in Superflex leagues.

Latavius Murray RB - Buffalo Bills

• As frustrating as it may be for managers of James Cook, it appears as if Latavius Murray’s presence as an effective goal-line back is here to stay. Murray has now posted two consecutive RB2 performances as the Bills' leading man inside the five and in short-yardage situations. Managers should add the veteran for scoring depth.

Dontayvion Wicks WR - Green Bay Packers

• The Packers have a crowded table of talented wideouts to feed, leaving Wicks hard-pressed for consistent development. With that said, the rookie has flashed some serious ability in limited playing time and could quickly carve out an increased role despite the competition for targets.

Andy Dalton QB - Carolina Panthers

• Andy Dalton is currently rostered in just 38.1% of Superflex leagues and could be in line for another start if Bryce Young remains sidelined. Regardless, Dalton should be rostered in case the rookie quarterback is forced to miss further games during the season. Dalton posted 24.5 points in his first start as the Panthers quarterback. A quarterback with plug-and-play potential against positive matchups should be rostered in 100.0% of Superflex leagues.

Joshua Palmer WR - Los Angeles Chargers

• Managers will undoubtedly be campaigning for Quentin Johnston to get more playing time after Mike Williams was ruled out for the remainder of the season with a knee injury. Johnston has done little to earn said playing time, posting just five receptions on eight targets for 26 yards across three games this season. In fact, it was the veteran Joshua Palmer who was immediately inserted into the Chargers lineup following Williams’ departure, leaving Johnston as the odd man out once again. Do not be surprised if the Chargers continue to slow-roll the development of Johnston while utilizing Palmer as the more experienced and proven wideout.

Dynasty Roster Cuts

Michael Carter RB - New York Jets

• Michael Carter is nothing more than a special teamer/depth piece on a struggling offense. Carter has no job security as a late-round pick and will be tough-pressed to find a meaningful career in the NFL after several disappointing seasons.

Keaontay Ingram RB - Arizona Cardinals

• 60.0% of managers are still holding out hope for some semblance of NFL success for Keaontay Ingram. 60.0% of managers need to give their heads a shake as Ingram continues to fall in the footsteps of several late-round Cardinals’ running backs who have no business being on an NFL roster (see Eno Benjamin and Ito Smith).

Buy Low

Trevor Lawrence QB - Jacksonville Jaguars

• Trevor Lawrence has regressed away from the strong finish to his 2022 season, with three consecutive sub-par outings to begin 2023. Lawrence has flashed all of the tools suggested by his generational talent label, but will still need to find consistency as he progresses through just his third season as an NFL quarterback.

Kyle Pitts TE - Atlanta Falcons

• Kyle Pitts has all of the tools and potential to post the most influential receiving season for a player with tight end designation in the history of professional football. He is a generational athlete, showcasing incredible route-running coupled with mean intentions of elusiveness and power after the catch. Unfortunately, Arthur Smith thinks Pitts is a poor blocker and refuses to change his coaching philosophy to accommodate the highest-drafted tight end in NFL history. Keep buying. Whatever the cost. Whatever the discount. Keep buying. The levy will eventually break and Pitts will be an unobtainable Dynasty asset once again.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR - Seattle Seahawks

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba has yet to meet expectations as the first wide receiver selected in the 2023 NFL Draft. Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison have vastly outproduced their fellow rookie but a mid-season breakout is likely on the horizon for the former Ohio State alum. Smith-Njigba is locked in as the third receiving option behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett but has produced respectable target shares despite his position on the depth chart. The Seahawks rookie may not be progressing as quickly as his fellow draft mates but make no mistake, Smith-Njigba is a special talent with a scintillating career range of outcomes.

Sell High

Jerome Ford RB - Cleveland Browns

• Jerome Ford has provided no positive indicators of continued production as the Browns' lead running back and will likely concede an increased opportunity share to Kareem Hunt once the veteran gets back to game speed. Ford’s youth and recent two-touchdown outing should be enough to capitalize on his rising, yet volatile, value.

DeVon Achane RB - Miami Dolphins

• This is by no means an evaluation of the player himself, moreover an acknowledgment of Devon Achane’s insatiable rising value to the RB1 tier in Dynasty. Achane is more than capable of producing positive outings for his managers but valuing an undersized committee back who has yet to displace the 31-year-old starter on the roster is a slippery slope. Trading away Achane at peak value may be a tough pill to swallow but his return cost currently sits in a tier adjacent with several top-tier assets. If you cannot get a sensational return on investment from your league market, simply hold the Olympic-level speedster and reap the rewards of his rookie production.

Jordan Love QB - Green Bay Packers

• Jordan Love should be viewed as a high-end QB2 rather than a bonafide QB1 asset like he currently is. Love’s career range of outcomes falls in a tier shared with players like Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr as opposed to high-ceiling assets like Trevor Lawrence and Tua Tagovailoa. I would look to pivot down a tier from Love’s rising value while adding significant capital in return, effectively ensuring an increased production ceiling plus additional depth.

Weekly Market Evaluation

The Dynasty Market is beginning to level out after three weeks of NFL action. Some of the early-season risers appear to be settling into their new market evaluations while the negative cause and effects of said movement have stabilized on the opposite end of the spectrum. The 2023 NFL Season is still in its juvenile stages so expect several more unexpected swings to occur but for now, the consensus opinions of Dynasty managers appear to be shared.

Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.

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By Matt Ward