Dynasty Market Report: Week 3

Managing a Dynasty roster is about building long-lasting success in the chaotic and unpredictable landscape of fantasy football. The idea should be to give yourself as many assets/bargaining chips as possible so that when you move all in, the deck is stacked in your favor. “We are card counters at the blackjack table, and we’re going to turn the odds at the casino.”

Today, we look at some intriguing assets in Dynasty, drawing unbiased values from Sleeper ADP, Dynasty League Football, and KeepTradeCut in an attempt to exploit certain market discrepancies. As always, we will be viewing these players and values through a Superflex lens.

WEEK 3 DYNASTY MARKET REPORT

Notable Market Risers

Tua Tagovailoa QB - Miami Dolphins

• The injury discount is no longer in effect as the Dynasty market has pushed Tua Tagovailoa’s consensus value to QB9/20th Overall. A QB1 Overall showing in Week 1 was followed by a mediocre fantasy outing in Week 2 so managers may see a slight decrease as the market value stabilizes. Nevertheless, Tua’s talent and youth have him locked in as a top-10 positional asset (and climbing) for the remainder of the 2023 season.

Jordan Addison WR - Minnesota Vikings

• Jordan Addison’s dynasty value has skyrocketed to WR13/29th Overall after two stellar outings from the first-round rookie wideout. Addison has caught a touchdown in both of his first two games, posting highlight-worthy grabs in each contest. His rising value is due largely in part to the Vikings' high-volume air attack despite being the unquestioned number two option behind Justin Jefferson. The strength of Addison’s prospect profile coupled with his early-season success has justifiably risen the rookie ahead of his fellow year-one receiver peers.

D’Andre Swift RB - Philadelphia Eagles

• A notable “Market Faller” in the first edition of the Dynasty Market Report, D’Andre Swift appeared to be nothing more than a depth piece at the early juncture of the 2023 season. Kenneth Gainwell led the team in carries (14 Carries/87.5% Rush Share), receptions (4) and targets (4 Targets/12.1% Target Share), securing 74 scrimmage yards on 18 touches during the team’s opening game. Then, with Gainwell sidelined in Week 2, Swift took over as the lead back, putting on a career performance with 175 rushing yards on 28 carries with one touchdown. He played 58 snaps (75.0%) with a 13.0% target share (3 targets) and 77.8% RB Rushing share (28 Carries). No other member of the Eagles backfield had more than five touches or 10 snaps. It’s going to be very difficult for Nick Sirianni and the Eagles coaching staff to deny Swift touches after this performance.

T.J. Hockenson TE - Minnesota Vikings

• The Dynasty tight end landscape can rapidly shift at any moment. The mainstay assets that have reigned atop the value charts are beginning to dissipate as Travis Kelce ages, Kyle Pitts struggles, and players like Dallas Goedert, George Kittle, and Darren Waller fail to meet expectations. T.J. Hockenson has since risen above nearly all the aforementioned players, sitting at the consensus TE3 on the Dynasty market. Hockenson has a resume of elite production at the position and is now being utilized as an every-down receiving threat in the Vikings' high-powered passing attack. Hockenson’s youth and continued positive progression put him in rarefied air as a cornerstone Dynasty asset.

Puka Nacua WR - Los Angeles Rams

• Puka Nacua now holds the NFL record for most receptions (25) and most targets (35) by any rookie wide receiver in the first two games of their career. Nacua has risen nearly 200 spots in startup ADP, settling at the WR20 in Dynasty leagues. It is hard to deny the historic early-season success of the Rams rookie but managers need to be aware that a two-game sample size is not nearly enough to predict continued success.

James Cook RB - Buffalo Bills

• In Week 1 James Cook immediately established himself ahead of the depth chart leading all Bills running backs in snaps (41/59.0% Snap Share), carries (12/80.0% Rush Share), targets (6/14.6% Target Share), rushing yards (46), receptions (4), and receiving yards (17). The following week Cook smashed through the raiders for 123 yards on 17 carries but annoyingly conceded 100.0% of opportunities inside of the 10 to Damien Harris and Latavius Murray, both of whom found the end zone despite tallying fewer carries and yards combined than Cook. The Bills' second-year back is now bordering RB1 territory on the Dynasty market with a consensus evaluation of RB13. As long as the Bills fail to entrust Cook as a bonafide RB1 and a player that can utilize in scoring territory then I cannot entrust him as a top-12 dynasty RB. 

Kyren Williams RB - Los Angeles Rams

• Kyren Williams has scored three touchdowns in the last two games, vastly outperforming the range of outcomes suggested by his rookie season and prospect profile. Williams is now the undeniable RB1 for the Rams as the team has officially benched Cam Akers in an attempt to trade the young back. Williams has gained 180 spots in dynasty value, opening up a savvy sell window for managers looking to profit off the undersized market riser.

Notable Market Fallers

Nick Chubb RB - Cleveland Browns

• A sad but unfortunate truth. Nick Chubb’s dynasty value is rapidly plummeting with no signs of stopping anytime soon. The Browns' superstar running back will miss the remainder of 2023 and beyond with a horrendous knee injury and ensuing surgery/recovery. Prayers up for a speedy return.

Justin Fields QB - Chicago Bears

• It is officially time to hit the panic button on Justin Fields and truthfully it is to no fault of his own. Matt Eberfuls is a train wreck of incompetence, leading the Bears to an 0-12 record in his last 12 games as the team’s head coach. Fields has rushed just 13 times for 62 yards and one touchdown in 2023, turning into a statue in the pocket while completing just 40 of 66 attempts (60.6%) with a passer rating of 70.7 with only 427 yards. He has thrown three picks to only two touchdowns while being sacked 10 times in two games. Fields has now been sacked 101 times in his career as the Bears starter. Across 29 total starts, Fields has completed just 59.8% of his pass attempts for 4539 yards (156.7 yards per game) with 26 touchdowns, 24 interceptions and just 6.9 yards per attempt. Rushing upside simply is not a large enough equalizer to ignore Fields' horrendous passing metrics. 

Drake London WR/Kyle Pitts TE - Atlanta Falcons

• Managers are growing increasingly impatient with the Falcons’ archaic run-first offense that refuses to use their two top-10 generational receiving talents. Both Kyle Pitts and Drake London are handcuffed to a system that consciously ignores the utility and talent of their best players. The range of outcomes for each asset is sky high with each pass-catcher having a top-5 positional ceiling. Unfortunately, a change of scenery may be the only way for Pitts and London to meet the said ceiling.

Quentin Johnston WR - Los Angeles Chargers

• Johnston is amongst the only rookie wide receivers in the NFL that have yet to make an impact in the first two weeks of the season. Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Marvin Mims, Charlie Jones, Jayden Reed, Dontayvius Wicks, Rashee Rice, Jonathan Mingo, and of course, Puka Nacua have made their presence felt whereas Johnston has just three catches for 16 yards across two games. The rookie’s value is drastically decreasing as he gets outperformed by virtually every other wide receiver in his draft class.

Dynasty Waiver Adds

Tony Jones RB - New Orleans Saints

• Tony Jones is undoubtedly about to be a popular addition to the Redraft Waiver Wire as well, even if just for a one-week spot start. Jones has the opportunity to serve as the Saints top running back in Week 3 as Jamaal Williams (hamstring), Kendre Miller (hamstring), and Alvin Kamara (suspension) remain sidelined. Jones polished off two touchdown drives for the Saints in Week 2 and could have a similar upside in their next contest.

Pierre Strong Jr. RB - Cleveland Browns

• Jerome Ford is likely rostered in 100.0% of dynasty leagues so let’s take a look at the next man up behind the Browns newly minted starter. Strong was signed off waivers after being cut by the Patriots and will be handed plenty of opportunity to complement Ford in a committee approach.

Matt Breida RB/Gary Brightwell RB/Eric Gray RB - New York Giants

• Saquon Barkley avoided injured reserve but is set to miss several weeks with an ankle injury. Breida steps up as the top option on the depth chart but will likely serve in a committee capacity with Gary Brightwell and rookie running back Eric Gray.

Kareem Hunt RB/Leonard Fournette RB - Free Agents

• Kareem Hunt and/or Leonard Fournette may find a home sooner than later with so many significant running back injuries affecting the NFL in the early stages of the season. Managers may have forced an early roster drop to free up space before the season. If Hunt and Fournette are available on your waiver wires, they are must-stash players.

Craig Reynolds RB - Detroit Lions

• David Montgomery leaves a significant opportunity share in the wake of his recent injury. Jahmyr Gibbs is unlikely to handle a workhorse role despite his immense talent and draft capital. Expect Reynolds to be sprinkled into the weekly game plan until Montgomery returns.

Dynasty Roster Cuts

Laviska Shenault WR - Carolina Panthers

• The dream has been dead forever. The 53.0% of managers that still roster Laviska Shenault in Dynasty leagues need to look themselves in the mirror and find a waiver add worth rostering.

Jordan Mason RB - San Francisco 49ers

• Elijah Mitchell is the clear number two on the depth chat and had exactly zero touches in the 49ers last game. Jordan Mason is a long-lost pipe dream of cheap running back success.

Ronald Jones RB - Free Agent

• Suspended following PED usage, Ronald Jones was finally cut by the Cowboys in Week 2. Jones will never have a meaningful role at the NFL level.

Buy Low

Kyle Pitts TE - Atlanta Falcons

• Kyle Pitts has all of the tools and potential to post the most influential receiving season for a player with tight end designation in the history of professional football. He is a generational athlete, showcasing incredible route-running coupled with mean intentions of elusiveness and power after the catch. Unfortunately, Arthur Smith thinks Pitts is a poor blocker and refuses to change his coaching philosophy to accommodate the highest-drafted tight end in NFL history. Keep buying. Whatever the cost. Whatever the discount. Keep buying. The levy will eventually break and Pitts will be an unobtainable Dynasty asset once again.

Marvin Mims WR - Denver Broncos

• Marvin Mims ran five routes in Week 2, catching two passes on two targets for 113 yards and one touchdown. The Broncos rookie is a sneaky acquisition that could produce well above market value if his playing time and route percentages begin to match his talent level.

Nico Collins WR - Houston Texans

• Facing off against division rival Panthers in Week 1, Collins led all Texans players with a 25.0% target share (11 Targets) and Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR) of 1.618. Collins matched veteran Robert Woods with a team-high six receptions but produced 80 yards (158 Air Yards) to Woods’ 57 yards (75 Air Yards) as the younger wideout found success on a deeper depth of target. Heading into Week 2, Collins drew a favorable matchup against a weakened Colts secondary and he took full advantage of said matchup. The Texans' top wideout caught seven of nine targets for 146 yards and one touchdown. C.J. Stroud continues to pass at a frenetic pace and although there will be some growing pains with the rookie as a passer, he has already coasted to two consecutive 300-yard games. Collins is by no means a cornerstone asset but he is a solid plug-and-play in the flex against favorable matchups.

Sell High

Kyren Williams RB - Los Angeles Rams

• Late-round undersized running backs with bottom-tier athleticism have absolutely no job security. The production that Kyren Williams is currently putting up is largely irrelevant to his career range of outcomes. He may provide decent scoring for competing teams throughout the 2023 season but the Rams running back is nothing more than a flash in the pan of outlier production.

Raheem Mostert RB - Miami Dolphins

• Anytime a 31-year-old running back with a wavering opportunity share and questionable health has a big game, sell them. Mostert should be shopped to any and all teams that view themselves as a contender.

Gabe Davis WR - Buffalo Bills

• Praise the Dynasty Gods for Gabe Davis has opened up another sell window for those unable to capitalize at his peak value. Davis led the Bills in receiving production in their Week 2 rout of the Raiders, sparking a dying flame in the heart of all the truthers still pursuing the inconsistent wideout. The return on investment will never be as high as the hype of last offseason but pivoting off of a middling WR2 for increased value is always a smart strategy. 

Weekly Market Evaluation

Week 2 yielded just as many wild and unexpected Dynasty market swings as Week 1. Remember, the 2023 season is still in its infancy. Sample sizes have not developed enough to speak in absolutes. There will be unpredictable value adjustments with short-term cause and effect throughout the first few weeks of the year. Do not allow these ripples to tear down the foundation of your evaluations and projections. Take advantage of those who react on impulse while allowing your roster to regress toward the norm.

Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.

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By Matt Ward