Week 3 Buy Low and Sell High

With Week 2 of the NFL season in the books, Lead Writer Matt Ward has his eyes on three buy-low targets and three sell-high targets heading into Week 3! Take advantage of your league mates by acquiring star players at their lowest value and dealing away volatile players at their highest values!

BUY LOW

Josh Jacobs RB - Las Vegas Raiders

Josh Jacobs has had a horrendous start to the 2023 season, a disappointing truth after a stunning breakout campaign in 2022. Jacobs' position as the RB1 for the Raiders has not deterred but the offense as a whole has sputtered to create meaningful production, mainly on the ground, in their first two contests. Jacobs has just 46 yards on 28 attempts, averaging 1.6 YPC, and tallied negative (-)2 yards on 9 carries in Week 2 against the Bills. He has supplemented some of his rushing production with seven receptions for 74 yards across two starts but has yet to produce a double-digit fantasy performance. On the bright side, the veteran rusher is maintaining incredible market shares in both the rushing and receiving departments. Jacobs has played 78.4% of the offensive snaps (76 Snaps), earning an 18.0% target share (9 Targets) and 84.8% running back rush share (28 Carries). No other member of the Raiders offense has more than five rush attempts for 13 snaps in two games combined. The workhorse opportunity share is there. Production will follow suit eventually.

Jaylen Waddle WR - Miami Dolphins

Unfortunate and untimely injuries can often open trade avenues for some of the league’s top players. Jaylen Waddle is in danger of missing the Dolphins Week 3 contest after being knocked out of their previous contest with a concussion. Injuries aside, Waddle’s start to the 2023 season has been well below his anticipated potential suggested by his offseason ADP. The speedy wideout has just eight catches on 11 targets (14.7% Target Share) for 164 yards (82 YDS/G) with no touchdowns through his first two games and was disappointingly out-targeted by bench-level tight end Durham Smythe in Week 1. Before exiting their Week 2 game, Waddle was pacing as the best receiver on the day, catching four of six targets for 86 yards including a 32-yard bomb from Tua Tagovailoa. Waddle has consistently been one of the brightest young stars in the NFL, earning elite target shares as a threat to score on any opportunity given. A two-week sample size of down production coupled with an unpredictable and unfortunate injury is not enough to detract me from the upside that Waddle brings to the table. Managers may be panicking about the early-season discrepancies from Waddle, allowing a perfect time to buy low if your roster can withstand his Week 3 absence.

Michael Pittman WR - Indianapolis Colts

Michael Pittman is a perennially undervalued trade target in redraft leagues despite being an established and unquestioned alpha receiver on his respective offense. Through two games in 2023, Pittman has corralled 16 of 23 targets (32.0% Target Share) for 153 yards with one touchdown. The next closest target-earner on the Colts offense is rookie wide receiver Josh Downs who has 12 (16.7%). Pittman boasts a league-high 100.0% route participation rating, playing 99.2% of the team’s offensive snaps (126 Snaps). Pittman currently ranks fifth in total routes and sixth in total targets amongst all players in the NFL, further solidifying his alpha status. Early inefficiencies from Anthony Richardson have understandably diminished some of Pittman’s trade value but the sheer volume of opportunity in front of the budding wideout is impossible to ignore. It is also worth mentioning that Richardson may be forced to miss a contest or two while working through the NFL’s concussion protocol, leaving capable backup Gardner Minshew to run the offense. Minshew is arguably a more competent pure passer than Richardson at the moment, giving credence to a potential increase in True Target Value for Pittman as well. Either way, as Richardson progresses, Pittman’s overall ceiling will continue to increase. Buy into the talent and opportunity of a player with top-15 positional upside.

SELL HIGH

Skyy Moore WR - Kansas City Chiefs

Valuing a player’s talent over their situation is a mantra often lived by in the fantasy football community. Conversely, when a player’s situation boosts their value well above their projected talent and range of outcomes you simply must capitalize. Catching passes from Patrick Mahomes has long been a denominator that unjustly balloons the values of his pass-catchers. Skyy Moore is no exception. Moore had a relatively poor rookie season, barely seeing the field for the Chiefs as the team rotated through a laundry list of relatively unknown wideouts. Moore had a mere 5.3% target share as a rookie with a route participation rating of 23.9%. To start his second season, Moore has boosted those numbers by menial amounts, playing just 63.6% of the offensive snaps (84) with seven targets (8.8%) on 30 routes (76.9%). His peripheral usage is that of a tertiary option with limited utility. Use Moore’s offseason hype and his Week 2 blowup game where he caught three of four targets for 70 yards and a touchdown as the bow on top of a neatly prepared trade package that allows you to tier up and away from the boom-or-bust wideout.

Josh Reynolds WR - Detroit Lions

Josh Reynolds seems to pop up on the Buy Low/Sell High column at least once per season. It’s truly his calling card. He teases managers with a high-quality performance early on, forcing a rush to the waiver wires only to immediately return to earth as the replacement-level receiver he is. Reynolds popped off with two touchdowns, catching five of six targets for 66 yards in Week 2 after Amon-Ra St. Brown was sidelined for a short period. Four players on the Lions roster had as many or more targets as Reynolds in Week 2. The veteran wideout is no higher than fourth in the pecking order when it comes to earning opportunities. His increased touchdown output from Week 2 will undeniably regress. Even in a world absent of St. Brown, there is no perceivable range of outcomes that suggests Reynolds can maintain even an inkling of his early season production.

Derrick Henry RB - Tennessee Titans

Opportunity is king in fantasy football and Derrick Henry has long been the King of opportunity. Unfortunately, A new reign of Titans running back has arrived as Henry begins to concede valuable third-down snaps to rookie Tyjae Spears. In Week 1, the Titans allocated 100.0% of the third-down opportunities to their rookie. In Week 2, that number stood tall again with Spears handling 86.0% of third-down work. Henry is rightfully leading the charge as the top option, but not by much. The long-time destructor of defenders has played 76 snaps in two games (59.4%) with a 12.1% target share (7 Targets) and 40 carries (78.4% Rush Share). Spears, on the other hand, has played 45.3% of the team’s snaps (58) earning six targets (10.4%) and 11 carries, all of which he has made the most of, posting 76 yards with a YPC of 6.9. Spears is merely a high-upside handcuff at this point but his current opportunity share and propensity for explosive chunk gains has greatly diminished the ceiling of Henry in comparison to years past when the veteran was the lone option in the backfield. Furthermore, the Titans offense appears destined to mediocrity this season, leaving Henry with fewer high-valued opportunities and a seemingly decreasing opportunity share. Henry’s saving grace as a fantasy asset has always been incredible rushing efficiency coupled with monstrous opportunity shares. He is currently averaging just 3.5 YPC and 71.0 YPG. If Spears continues to trend upward as a weekly fixture in the offensive game plan, Henry could find himself stuck in a timeshare on a middling offense. Henry’s name still holds immense weight in the trade market. Explore all avenues and do not sell cheap. If you are forced to hold Henry as an asset, simply ride out the waves until you can capitalize on another window.

Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.

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By Matt Ward