SLEEPERS
QB: Russell Wilson - Denver Broncos
Russell Wilson is on a hot streak to kick off his tenure under new head coach, Sean Payton. It appears as if the eulogies written on Wilson’s fantasy production have been greatly exaggerated after just two games with Payton calling the shots. “Mr. Unlimited” is averaging an impressive 25.1 PPG (QB3) through the first two weeks of the season. In those two games, he managed to eke out 19.2 points against the Raiders, landing him as the QB16 on the week. Wilson followed that up with a dominant 30.9-point performance against the Commanders as the QB3 overall. Things are certainly trending in the right direction. Strong performances shouldn’t be shocking from a historically elite fantasy producer but there still seem to be several managers who are unable to wash the bitter taste of the 2022 season out of their mouths. Despite there being an entirely new coaching staff and situation in place, Wilson is only rostered in 50% of fantasy leagues and is listed as a starter on 17% of said rosters. Wilson should be on fantasy managers’ radars and these numbers should be drastically higher with the Broncos quarterback looking poised to continue his positive production. In Week 3, The Broncos (0-2) square off against the Dolphins as they travel to face their undefeated foes. The Dolphins have been a quarterback-friendly matchup so far this season, allowing nearly 20.0 PPG to the position and 390.5 total yards per game (26th). With Wilson returning to his old form, and the continued recovery of top wideout Jerry Jeudy, this Week 3 contest against the Dolphins seems like the perfect position for the veteran quarterback to extend his hot hand. Lock him into your lineups knowing the floor is serviceable with the ceiling of a top-3 positional finish.
Boyd Armstrong
RB: Kendre Miller - New Orleans Saints
The Saints seemed keen to slow roll the development of rookie running back Kendre Miller, leaving the rookie as the third running back on the depth chart behind Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams to start the season. A hamstring injury suffered in training camp forced the Saints’ hand further as Miller was forced to miss the first two weeks of the 2023 campaign. Now off the injury report, Miller is expected to shoulder the workload as the leading running back in his first-ever NFL game as Kamara (suspended) and Williams (hamstring) look to be sidelined in Week 3. Tony Jones is the only running back on the roster that poses a threat to Miller's team-leading opportunity share. Jones is a horrendously ineffective runner, posting 34 yards on 12 rush attempts (2.8 YPC) in Week 2, salvaging a low-efficiency day with two rushing touchdowns. Gadget-man Taysom Hill easily outproduced Jones as a rusher, securing 75 yards on nine attempts (8.3 YPC). There is a slight chance that Williams sheds his injury designation prior to kickoff but even he has been wildly inefficient this season, recording a mere 74 yards on 27 attempts (2.7 YPC) through his first two games as a Saint. Miller also profiles as a better pass-catcher than the aforementioned options, giving the rookie rusher a slight boost in PPR/Half-PPR formats while providing an avenue for snaps and utility above his teammates. The Saints (2-0) travel to face the Packers (1-1) in Week 3, paving the way for an excellent outing from Miller against an exploitable defensive matchup. The Packers have allowed 166.5 rushing yards per game (30th) this season, continuing their struggles from 2022 where the team conceded 19.3 PPG of rushing production to running backs, equating to 13.4% over the expected average. The rising rookie is a high-upside play this week and should be started without hesitation.
Matt Ward
WR: Elijah Moore - Cleveland Browns
Elijah Moore’s usage has been downright excellent this season. His production – not so much. Moore is currently averaging a 23.2% target share (16 Total Targets), earning a target on 25.4% of his routes on an average depth of target of 11.5 yards with a route participation rating of 91.3% (60 Routes). Unfortunately, the Browns' new wideout has just six receptions for 79 yards (13.2 YPR) with no touchdowns and a PPG average of 8.2 (WR60). Positive regression is almost assuredly on the horizon as the Browns (1-1) play host to the Titans (1-1) in Week 3. In 2022, the Titans defense conceded 38.4 PPG to wideouts with a Points Over Average rating of 13.7% (8th). Week 3 also marks a prime jumping point to kickstart Deshaun Watson’s mediocre 2023 campaign. Last season, the Titans finished 5th in the True Matchup Rank to quarterback passing production, allowing 20.4 PPG to the position with a Points Over Average rating of 21.4%. It appears as if the defensive identity of Moore’s next opponents has not changed to begin the current season. The Titans remain one of the best-rushing defenses in the NFL while continuing to be a sieve for wide receiver production. Through two games of the season, the Titans have allowed 281.5 passing yards per game (28th) with two WR1 performances and one WR2 performance against them (Chris Olave: WR10 - 19.2 PPR PTS, Keenan Allen: WR1 - 31.1 PPR PTS, Mike Williams WR23 16.6 PPR PTS). Moreover, the Titans have specifically struggled against receivers who line up in the slot, an area of the field in which Moore has run 79.3% of his routes this season. The third-year wideout has all of the positive peripherals to ensure a bounce-back game against one of the league’s most scintillating defensive matchups.
Matt Ward
TE: Jake Ferguson - Dallas Cowboys
Jake Ferguson is surprisingly leading the NFL in red zone targets despite two blowout wins and a deep array of pass-catching talent around him. As it turns out, being able to destroy your opponents while constantly controlling field position on the back of a league-leading defense results in plenty of red zone trips. Furthermore, the only two players with a receiving touchdown for the Cowboys this season are their tight ends (Ferguson, Schoonmaker). Rookie tight end Luke Schoonmaker only has one target this season while Ferguson is tied with Tony Pollard for the 2nd most targets on the team with 11. CeeDee Lamb is still far and away the best receiving option on the team as no other player has more than 50 receiving yards this year. The Cowboys (2-0) now head to the desert to face up against the Cardinals (0-2) as heavy favorites on the road. Despite an ability to put up points in the first two weeks to start the year, it’ll be difficult for Joshua Dobbs and company to keep that scoring pace up against the Cowboys' defense. An early and comfortable lead could cap the passing volume for the Cowboys offense but Ferguson is still facing a juicy matchup that deserves attention. The Cardinals were the 6th best tight end matchup in True Matchup Rank during the 2022 season and have allowed Logan Thomas & Darren Waller to finish as the TE13 and TE4, respectively, in the first two weeks of 2023. Ferguson can easily finish a high-upside streamer with his continued usage as a red zone/touchdown threat.
Themi Michalakis
BUSTS
QB: Joe Burrow - Cincinnati Bengals
Heading into the season it would’ve felt blasphemous to have Joe Burrow on the “Busts” portion of our weekly series, yet here we are. The start of the year has not been kind to “Joe Cool” as his fantasy performances have matched his fan-given moniker, with two ice-cold outings. In Week 1 he produced a stinker for fantasy managers, dropping a measly 3.2 fantasy points against the Browns, finishing as the QB31. In Week 2 against the Ravens, he bounced back from a statistical perspective, putting up 16.4 fantasy points but still only finished as high as QB21 on the Week. Burrow is averaging a horrendous 9.8 PPG through his first two games and is actively destroying fantasy squads around the world. A lot of the blame can be pinned on the calf injury that Burrow sustained during the pre-season, which has lingered and impacted his level of play since. He still is dealing with soreness and is considered day-to-day as we head into the Bengals (0-2) Week 3 matchup against the Rams (1-1). The Rams' defense has played surprisingly well against quarterbacks to start the year. They effectively shut down Geno Smith and Brock Purdy, as the pair of division rivals managed just 9.1 (QB25) and 14.7 (QB23) in Week 1 and Week 2. The combination of Burrow’s injury along with the Bengals' slow start offensively and the Rams' defense shutting down opposing quarterbacks makes for a terrible recipe for fantasy managers. To make matters worse, the game doesn’t take place until Monday Night, making it even harder to start Burrow with confidence. Avoid the red flags and pivot elsewhere for your Week 3 quarterback needs.
Boyd Armstrong
RB: James Conner - Arizona Cardinals
James Conner is sure to be a fixture in this year’s Sleeper and Busts column as a matchup and touchdown-dependent option with unmatched usage on his offense. Unfortunately, the offense in question is bottom-feeding their way to a tanked season while vastly outperforming their early-season scoring projections and simultaneously maintaining a winless record. Conner’s start-of-year successes may be short-lived after two serviceable outings as the Cardinals (0-2) play host to the NFL’s best defense in a Week 3 matchup against the Cowboys (2-0). The Cowboys have allowed just 10 points combined this season (1st), conceding a league-leading 107.0 passing yards (1st), with just 86.0 rushing yards (7th) and 226.0 total offensive yards (1st) per game. They allowed just 65 yards of running back rushing production to the Giants in Week 1, followed by a suffocating 28 yards of rushing production to the Jets running backs in Week 2. In fact, 79 yards of their total allowed rushing production has come to quarterbacks (Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson) as the other members of opposing backfields struggle to find momentum. Both the Giants and the Jets currently have higher-rated offensive lines in both run blocking and pass blocking grades than the Cardinals' current active unit, per PFF. Conner is staring down the barrel of the loaded gun that is the Cowboys' defense with no protection in front of him to stave off the onslaught.
Matt Ward
WR: Chris Godwin - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chirs Godwin was a popular fade in fantasy drafts for the Broto Crew during the 2023 NFC South Heat Wave Series, citing concerns with his lack of high-upside production in 2022 despite incredible usage. Godwin’s 142 targets in 2022 translated to WR10 in total targets but just WR31 in target share at 21.8%, providing a stark example of just how much the Buccaneers passed last season. In 2022, Godwin finished outside of the top 24 wide receivers in all major efficiency stats including Target Share (21.8%/WR31), Target Rate (25.5%/WR25), Air Yards Share (16.8%/WR71), aDOT (5.6 YDS/WR99), Yards Per Route Run (1.84/WR38), Yards Per Target (7.2/WR71), Yards Per Reception (9.8/WR93), Yards Per Team Pass Attempt (1.52/WR38), Points Per Route (0.40/WR33), and Points Per Target (1.57/WR72). All of those concerns appear to be rearing their ugly head once again as Godwin’s low aDOT and efficiency ratings have been unable to support his ceiling of production. Through two games in 2023, the Buccaneers wideout has just 10 receptions for 109 yards with no touchdowns (10.5 PPG/WR49) despite earning a 21.9% target share and 20.9% target rate. If Mayfield is looking downfield for a target, he seemingly only has eyes for Mike Evans as the big-bodied wideout has outpaced and outproduced Godwin in every perceivable metric. The Buccaneers (2-0) face a less-than-favorable defensive matchup in Week 3 as the team hosts the defending NFC Champion Eagles (2-0). The Eagles have yet to find their identity as a top-tier unit in comparison to years past but still possess enough firing power to give Mayfield and company a handful of problems on offense. If Evans maintains his spot as the top option, Godwin is nothing more than a volume-based PPR play with limited upside.
Matt Ward
TE: Zach Ertz - Arizona Cardinals
Zach Ertz is going to be a hot waiver addition after two solid starts and should continue to be rostered heavily as a mid-range TE1 throughout the season but Week 3 is a tough place to start the veteran tight end. Ertz is on the wrong side of the Cowboys (2-0) at Cardinals Matchup (0-2) as the second member of the offense to meet the “Busts” column this week. Volume alone may give him a decent floor in half and full PPR but his yardage and touchdown upside will be extremely capped against the league’s reigning top defense.. The Cowboys limited Darren Waller to just 3 receptions for 36 yards on 5 targets in Week 1, with Tyler Conklin finishing with 5 catches for 50 yards on 6 targets in Week 2. Dobbs has been serviceable to this point but has yet to face a defense as stout as the Cowboys unit. Ertz may finish at the lower end of the TE1 scale but it is hard to envision the veteran producing anywhere near double-digits in this matchup. Start him with caution or, better yet, look for a high-upside streamer on your waiver wires before Sunday kickoff.
Themi Michalakis
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For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.