Broto Bets Week 3

Broto Bets went 4-1 last week and profited 2.57 units. Let’s keep rolling in Week 3! 

Teasers:

Last year my teaser legs hit 78.46% of the time and I’m looking to hit a similar profitability mark in 2023. Things are going to be slightly different this year. Instead of giving individual legs that you can mix and match, I’ll be giving you the actual bet to place to make tracking profitability easier to display. Feel free to mix and match on your own since lines on sportsbooks available to you may differ based on your location or time of reading. 

All teasers are 2-team/6-point teasers at one unit unless otherwise noted. Make sure to only bet teasers at -120 or better. 

Teaser 1: 

Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens (-8.5) O/U: 44.5 

Buffalo Bills (-6.5) @ Washington Commanders O/U: 44.5 

Themi’s Teaser: Baltimore Ravens -2.5, Buffalo Bills -0.5 

Anthony Richardson’s Colts have been sneaky good. Fantasy football players will be happy with his performances but the team as a whole has also performed quite well. Ranking 15th in team DVOA and 9th in defense, they’re a tough bunch to beat. The box scores may not indicate the same positive outlook but Week 1 is always flukey and the game was extremely tight until the late 4th quarter. The Colts were also up 31-10 heading into the 4th last week but were unable to finish the game with their star quarterback as he left to be evaluated for a concussion. The Ravens have had the benefit of playing against the Texans and a struggling Bengals team that looked like it was starting to click toward the end of their matchup. Gardner Minshew will take over over for an injured Anthony Richardson, scaring off some bettors. It is worth noting that Minshew looked more than serviceable in his brief relief of Richardson and is currently the 16th highest-graded QB on PFF. For comparison, Lamar Jackson is 8th while Anthony Richardson is 29th. Perhaps it was just a brief spurt of success with a comfortable lead against a bad defense. Perhaps not. It’s enough cause for concern to avoid the Ravens at their current spread and instead tease them down to a win by a FG. Baltimore ranks 7th in DVOA and 6th in DAVE (DVOA adjusted for variation early). Minshew scares me compared Richardson but I still expect Baltimore to figure it out at home. 

Surprise, surprise, the Commanders are 2-0. Sure they only narrowly beat the lowly Cardinals and were a missed DPI call from facing OT in Denver but winning is better than losing. These may seem like fluke wins - and they might be - but the Commanders rank 11th in DVOA (11th on offense and 10th on defense) and are 16th in DAVE. They’re also 11th in defensive EPA/play and get to host a Bills team that bounced back from a shock loss in Week 1. Buffalo beat up on the Raiders and went from letting Breece Hall carve them up to limiting Josh Jacobs to -2 rushing yards. The Bills don’t get the luxury of obliterating an awful defense but Washington doesn’t quite compare to the Jets. The Commanders should fare better offensively and could push this spread to its absolute limits. I’ll take the better overall team to just straight-up win. 

Teaser 2: 

Denver Broncos @ Miami Dolphins (-6.5) O/U: 48.5 

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5) O/U: 44.5 

Themi’s Teaser: Dolphins -0.5, Jaguars -2.5 (1.5u)

The Dolphins are the best offense in football. There will still be concerns about Tua Tagovailoa should he suffer another concussion but until then this is a team that will be able to out-score almost every opponent in the league. Their defense has been struggling but the pre-season DAVE model still views them around league-average. The Denver Broncos may present a greater challenge than faced thus far, ranking as the 7th-best offense in DVOA and 8th in EPA/play. They don’t stack up nearly as well offensively despite a 33-point performance against the Commanders last week. Only pressured on 9.1% of dropbacks (2nd fewest in the league) and having only tasted turf once so far, Tua is not taking nearly as much punishment as last season. The Dolphins' offensive line has provided Tua with the fastest time to throw in the league through two games. Having two elite speedsters at wide receiver has helped the young quarterback find a window to success early on. For comparison, Russell Wilson has the 6th slowest time to throw, being pressured on 22.8% of dropbacks (16th), and has been sacked nine times already. Trying to keep up with the best offense in the league while Bradley Chubb, Jaelan Phillips, Andrew Van Ginkel, and David Long are chasing you down won’t be the easiest task. Tease the Dolphins down to a win at home. 

It’s quite rare that I don’t find an enticing underdog spread to tease but this week is offering far too many favorites at teasable spreads. While the Saints, Steelers, Jets, and Titans look like good bets I’m just not comfortable enough to take them this week. The Jaguars, however, are in a great spot to win. C.J. Stroud and the Texans' passing offense started to heat up last week and they now draw one of the worst passing defenses in the league heading into Week 3. The Jaguars will have their hands full stopping Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Dalton Schultz. Still, the Jaguars were able to fend off another divisional rookie on a better overall roster in Week 1. They also kept things within a score against the Chiefs, even after Mahomes got things together in the 2nd half. Both DVOA and DAVE see the Jaguars as a top-half team that should eventually be better on offense and worse on defense while the Texans are still a bottom-5 team despite looking a lot more palatable. Take the better Jaguars to win by a FG at home in a low-scoring affair. 

Straight Bets: 

Browns ML (-170) 

The Browns may have inflated stats because of the games they played. Despite losing to the Steelers in Week 2, the defense has only given up 15 points this season. They blew out the struggling Bengals in terrible weather and then faced a lowly Steelers offense. They lost thanks to a couple of defensive scores and heavy pressure on Deshaun Watson in key moments. Now Nick Chubb is out for the season on a scary injury. With the context around their wins this line may seem off but Tennessee doesn’t look strong despite some close games including a win over the Chargers. It won’t surprise many to know that Tennessee still ranks quite highly as a running team and run-stopping defense but that’s where a lot of the positives end. The Titans are extremely susceptible through the air and present a perfect opportunity for Cleveland to post an impressive showing as a passing team. Even if Jerome Ford and the rest of the backfield can’t get much going, this team is better offensively and defensively. If the line was still at -3 I would consider the spread but the hook is too much over a key number. 

Patriots -2.5 (-115)

The Patriots have an enticing line heading into Week 3 against the Jets. This was looking like the year for the Jets to finally make an impact on the AFC East but things have gone downhill very quickly. The Week 1 win didn’t do much to inspire Jets fans after losing Aaron Rodgers but don’t expect this team to go down easily just yet. Last week’s 30-10 loss to the Cowboys looked bad but the team was holding its own for a while and didn’t allow a single TD in the 2nd half. Allowing 4 FGs without scoring at all can’t be very good, though. That’s going to be the story of the season for the Jets it seems and a few big plays from Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson can’t work every week. Zach Wilson has been exceptionally below average and now matches up against a Patriots team that has been keeping things uncomfortably close against two of the best offenses in the league. While the Patriots' defense isn’t playing nearly as well as their top-5 season last year, they’re compensating with a really fun offense under Bill O’Brien. Mac Jones is graded as PFF’s QB12 this year and should take care of business by at least a FG in New York. 

Colts +8.5 (-110) 

I don’t often take underdog spreads that correlate against my Teasers. Not because it makes me uncomfortable but because the talent difference is usually too large to justify it. I’m making an exception here because the Colts could make things difficult for the Ravens. I covered just how good Gardner Minshew and the team overall are in the teaser section. This is not quite a middle since we need another leg to hit but it’s entirely possible that both bets pay out.

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By Themi Michalakis