Clay's Corner: Week 3 DFS Plays

We are already onto Week 3 of the NFL and DFS season! We crushed in both cash and GPPs in Week 2 so let us take a quick look at some of those hits:

QB: Anthony Richardson - 17.74 (If only he did not get hurt), Daniel Jones - 34.74, Jordan Love - 20.34, Jared Goff - 26.92

RB: James Cook - 22.90

WR: Deebo Samuel - 22.1

TE: Zach Ertz - 11.6, Mark Andrews - 15.5

D/ST: WSH - 10

My best GPP lineup finished 1,548th out of 29,726 entries, here is the lineup:

QB: Justin Herbert - 25.20

RB: Derrick Henry - 18.50

RB: Isiah Pacheco - 8

WR: Keenan Allen - 34.10

WR: Mike Williams - 16.6

WR: Deebo Samuel - 22.10

TE: Zach Ertz - 11.6

FLEX: Christian Kirk - 24.96

D/ST: NYJ - 0

 Time to hit more winners this week!

Week 3 DraftKings slate

Games to target:

1. BUF @ WAS – 43.5 O/U

Implied totals: BUF 25; WAS 18.5

2. ATL @ DET – 46.5 O/U

Implied totals: ATL 21.75; DET 24.75

3. HOU @ JAX – 43.5 O/U

Implied totals: HOU 17; JAX 26.5

4. LAC @ MIN- 53.5 O/U

Implied totals: LAC 26; MIN 27.5

Top Cash Plays: 

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert ($7,500)

After a rough outing against Miami in Week one, Justin Herbert rebounded with a 25.2-point performance against the hapless Titans defense. The Vikings ranked as the 7th best matchup for opposing QBs in 2022, according to Broto’s True Matchup Rank (a phenomenal tool that you can access for FREE on the Fantasy by Broto app! Go download it now!) 

Kirk Cousins ($6,900)

Kirk Cousins, aka the #1 QB in fantasy points scored this season, makes for a formidable cash play this week. Cousins has thrown for over 700 yards and 6 TDs the first two weeks of the season. Cousins gets the pleasure of facing a Charger’s defense that has allowed the most passing yards (666) and highest yards/att (9.6). It also helps that this game has the highest O/U at 53.5 this week. 

Trevor Lawrence aka “The Prince Who Was Promised” ($6,800)

The “Prince” gets a chance to rebound after his inferior performance against the “Kings” of the AFC West, the Kansas City Chiefs. In his career against the Houston Texans, Lawrence is averaging 268.5 passing yards, 1.25 TDs, and 0.5 rushing TDs. The “Prince” should reclaim his throne this week. 

Other options: Patrick Mahomes (Bears defense got lit up by Baker Mayfield after all), Geno Smith $5,700, C.J. Stroud $5,300, Jared Goff $6,500. There are many options both high and low this week at QB. RB and WR pricing will dictate the build of your lineup.

Running Back

Austin Ekeler ($8,500) 

Austin Ekeler is a no-brainer this week if healthy against Minnesota. Big if though.  

Tony Pollard ($8,000) 

Tony Pollard is a discounted Austin Ekeler. He significantly increased his workload from Week 1 (16 touches) to Week 2 (32 touches), so there is no concern about work being taken from him. RB Saquon Barkley plowed through the Cardinals defense for 2 total TDs, 63 yards on the ground and 6 receptions. Pollard will once again carry the workload for the Dallas offense, so start him with confidence in Week 3. 

Justice Hill ($4,800)

Perennial offseason darling Justice Hill suddenly finds himself atop the Ravens RB depth chart. I questioned him after Week 1, however, in Week 2 Hill beat out Gus Edwards in several key areas:

• Snaps: 43 vs 32

• Rushing share: 52.4% vs 47.6%

• Target share: 9.1% vs 0%

Further aiding Hill’s fantasy production is his redzone usage. Hill is tied for 3rd in rushing attempts inside the 20-yard line. Travis Etienne put up 77 yards and 1TD against the Colts defense in Week 1 and I expect Hill to make some noise. 

Other considerations: Bijan Robinson ($7,800), Raheem Mostert ($6,000)

Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson ($9,300) 

Jefferson has back-to-back games of double-digit targets and 150 receiving yards but zero TDs. Week 3 could be where he positively regresses in the TD department. It is going to be a long day for the Chargers secondary. 

Keenan Allen ($7,600)

Only injury can stop Keenan Allen. He has already earned 19 targets and has caught 2 TDs already this season. Allen is currently:

• 9th in targets

• 7th in receptions

• 2nd in redzone opportunities

• 17th in target share 25.7%

• 8th in receiving yards (187)

With the way the Chargers defense has allowed points, Allen should continue to produce strong numbers. The Vikings slot as the 2nd best matchup for opposing WRs, so plug Allen in your cash game lineups. 

Tank Dell ($3,600) 

With Noah Brown out, Tank Dell claimed his role in Week 2. Dell had 7 receptions on 10 targets for 72 yards and 1 TD. Houston ranks 5th in pass rate at 67.55%. With the Jaguars having an implied total of 26.5, the Texans will have to throw to win, and Tank Dell will be involved. 

Tight End 

T.J. Hockenson ($6,500)

TJ Hockenson is still mispriced for his production compared to his expensive counterparts. Hockenson has 17 targets through 2 games, which he has turned into 15 receptions for 101 yards and 2 TDs. He also is tied for a team high 3 redzone targets, 2 more than WR Justin Jefferson. The matchup is middle of the road so this is a bet on talent and volume. 

Jake Ferguson ($3,500)

Jake Ferguson leads all TEs in redzone targets with 8. The next closest player is Travis Kelce just last week with 4. With the Cowboys having an implied total of 27.75 and the Cardinals being the 6th best matchup for opposing TEs, Ferguson is live to score. 

D/ST 

Buffalo Bills ($2,900) 

The Bills sport the 5th highest pressure rate at 29.4%. That pressure rate should work well with the Washington Commanders 3rd highest sack rate of 12.5%. 1st year QB Sam Howell has 1 INT, 2 fumbles and been sacked 10 times already. Only QB CJ Stroud has been sacked more than QB Sam Howell. 

Favorite Stacks:

1. Josh Allen + Stefon Diggs + Gabe Davis/Dawson Knox no Commanders bring back. 

2. Trevor Lawrence + Calvin Ridley + Zay Jones with Nico Collins or Tank Dell bring back. 

3. Justin Herbert + Mike Williams + Keenan Allen with Justin Jefferson/TJ Hockenson/Alexander Mattison bring back. 

4. Jared Goff + Amon-Ra St. Brown + Jahmyr Gibbs/Josh Reynolds with Bijan Robinson/Drake London/Kyle Pitts bring back. 

5. Kirk Cousins + Justin Jefferson + TJ Hockenson/Alexander Mattison with Keenan Allen/Mike Williams bring back. 

6. Tua + Tyreek Hill + Jaylen Waddle/Raheem Mostert with no Broncos bring back. 

GPP Plays:

Quarterbacks High End

Josh Allen ($8,100)

The Bills offense goes as Josh Allen goes. Allen was back to his QB1 ways in Week 2, going for 274 yards through the air along with 3 passing TDs. The rushing was lacking, however, but with the Bills up 21-10 at half, there was no reason for Josh Allen to run much. The Commanders have not allowed much to scrambling QBs, ranking as the 22nd best matchup for running QBs, albeit they did let Russel Wilson clobber them for 308 and 3 TDs through the air. Allen should get back to his dominating ways in Week 3. 

Lamar Jackson ($7,700)

Lamar had 22.88 fantasy points last week and yet, his performance still felt lackluster. Hopefully, this is the week Lamar cracks the 30-point threshold in classic Lamar do-it-all fashion. The Colts just let rookie QB CJ Stroud hang up 384 yards and 2 TDs against them and that was with the entire Texans offensive line out. It is time to see if this offense really did change its stripes this offseason. 

Quarterbacks Low End

See cash section. If you really want to push the envelope this week, Desmond Ridder is your guy. Trusting someone other than the RB on the Falcons is always dicey but if the Lions push the Falcons as expected, Ridder will have to throw and run (39 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD in Week 2) to keep pace. 

Running Back

James Cook ($6,400) 

Cook increased his carries while maintaining his passing work in Week 2. He has no goal line role though, which is not ideal, though his workload maintains steady. Although he ranks 17th in opportunity share, Cook does rank 9th in weighted opportunity and 10th among RBs in target share. Cook also makes nice leverage against a chalky Bills passing attack. 

Isiah Pacheco ($5,400)

I used Pacheco in GPPs last week and felt it was a good play. This week Pacheco is a great play. The Bears defense has been downright pathetic. Rachaad White, who is purely a receiving back, torched this defense for 73 yards on 17 carries, averaging 4.3 yards/attempt. In Week 1, Aaron Jones had 127 scrimmage yards and 2 TDs before leaving with a hamstring injury. The stage is set for Pacheco to have a big game. 

Wide Receivers

Calvin Ridley ($7,200)

Ridley gets a nice bounce-back spot in Week 3 against the Texans. The Texans rank 11th in fewest passing yards allowed but have yet to face a true “alpha” WR. Zay Flowers and Michael Pittman each posted over 70 receiving yards against them though and Ridley is a different animal. Based on Ian Hartitz’s Sheesh report, QB Trevor Lawrence missed on potentially 4 TD passes last week against the Chiefs, 2 of which were in Ridley’s direction. Bet on Ridley to bounce-back in Week 3. 

WR Tyler Lockett ($6,400) 

After a rough Week 1, Lockett is in back in sync with QB Geno Smith. Lockett commanded 10 targets Week 2 in which he converted into an 8/59/2 line. Although the Panthers have given up the 4th fewest yards passing, they did face HC Arthur Smith’s run-on-every-down offense Week 1, which certainly skews this ranking. Trust Lockett to burn this Panthers secondary deep. 

Tight Ends

TE Mark Andrews ($6,000) 

Mark Andrews goes for 5/45/1 on 8 targets in Week 3 and gets priced $3,000 cheaper on DK? Sign me up! Andrews naturally lead the team in targets in his first game of the season and that is to be expected on a weekly basis. Tight Ends have combined for 12 targets through two games against the Colts. Andrews is getting healthier and Week 3 could be his coming out party. 

TE Kyle Pitts ($3,900)

Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result is the definition of insanity. Yet here we are. The Detroit Lions just allowed Noah Fant, Colby Parkinson, and Will Dissly to combine for 9/132 against them. This is it folks, if it does not happen this week then never again will I recommend Kyle Pitts!

D/ST

Cleveland Browns ($3,300)

The Browns boast a 31.8% pressure rate, 3rd best in the NFL, which means they are getting after the QB with the best of them. With only 4 sacks to show for it through two weeks, the Browns should be able to exploit a Titans offensive line that has the 4th highest sack rate at 12.1%. 

Lone Ranger (sub $5,000 player that can score over 10 fantasy points)

I found a picture of WR Jahan Doston on a milk carton since he was nowhere to be found in Week 2. WR Zay Jones just missed 2 TD passes per the Sheesh report by Ian Hartitz. I am 1-4 on lone ranger plays to start the year. Time to get back on track. 

WR Rashid Shaheed ($4,200) & WR Tank Dell ($3,600)

Rashid Shaheed should easily crack the 10-point threshold this week. He will not be covered by CB Jaire Alexander and has totaled 9 receptions for 152 yards and 1 TD the past two weeks. 

I hit on Tank Dell in Week 2 and expect him to continue to earn more opportunities to keep pace with an up-tempo Jaguars offense. 

Have a great Week 3! Win big and be kind to each other!

The Fantasy Football by Broto app is now live on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store! Download it today for a start sit tool, player cards, statistics, usage, rankings, interactive tools, coaching tendencies, and much, much more. FREE for a limited time.

Check out patreon.com/Brotofantasy to access extra episodes, join our community, win prizes, and help keep the app free.

By Clayton Jones (@FF_Pulse_88)