The Broto Heat Wave brings you daily previews of every team’s fantasy football prospects in 2023. 32 teams in 32 days. Today we are recapping the episodes from the NFC South, bringing you quick-hitting bullets that summarize everything you need to know about the players and coaches in this division.
ATLANTA FALCONS
Offensive Outlook
Arthur Smith embarks on year three as the Falcons' head coach after gaining fame as the Titans' offensive coordinator,
Smith led the NFL in rushing percentage on third down and while trailing by seven or more points in 2022.
The combination of Dave Ragone and Arthur Smith has resulted in one of the most stubbornly annoying yet effective rushing attacks in the NFL.
In 2022, the Falcons' offense led the NFL in fewest penalties, finished third in the NFL in rushing yards per game and 10th in third-down conversion rate.
The Falcons also had the third-highest successful play rate on rushing attempts, based on EPA, at 45.1 percent.
The Falcons rushing attack averaged 74.5 more rushing yards per game in 2022 than it did in 2021, resulting in the largest one-season improvement by any team since at least 2001.
With Cordarrelle Patterson (340), Tyler Allgeier (324), Marcus Mariota (280) and Caleb Huntley (265), the Falcons became the first team to have four players with at least 250 rushing yards through the first eight games of a season in NFL history.
Additionally, Allgeier surpassed Williams Andrews (1,023 in 1979) for the most rushing yards by a rookie in franchise history and became the sixth rookie selected in the fifth round or later to eclipse 1,000 rushing yards over the past 20 seasons.
Patterson also set single-season career highs for rushing yards (695) and rushing The Falcons finished 2022 with a 7-10 Record (4th NFC South), ranked 15th in Points Per Game (21.5) with the 31st Lowest Pass Percentage (40.3%) and 2nd Highest Run Percentage (57.4%) in the NFL.
Notable Offensive Additions: QB Taylor Heinicke, WR Scotty Miller, WR Mack Hollins, TE Jonnu Smith, Rookie RB Bijan Robinson.
Notable Offensive Subtractions: QB Marcus Mariota, WR Olamide Zaccheus.
Quarterback
Desmond Ridder has all of the intangibles to become a massive outlier in fantasy. The former third-round quarterback will get his chance to start for the entire 2023 season.
Ridder’s athleticism and rushing upside give him the potential to be a sneaky contributor to fantasy teams this season.
In 13 games with Marcus Mariota, the Falcons averaged 14 completions on 23 pass attempts per game. In the small four-game sample size in which Ridder was the starter, the Falcons were much more willing to pass, averaging 18 completions on 29 pass attempts.
The Falcons have shown immense confidence in Ridder as the starter, avoiding the quarterback position in the 2023 NFL Draft and free agency despite a wide array of highly talented options to choose from.
Ridder appears to be an immediate upgrade for the Falcons as a passer while also boasting an elite rushing pedigree as a quarterback in college.
Ridder tallied 2181 rushing yards on 501 and 28 rushing touchdowns across his four-year tenure at the University of Cincinnati.
The Falcons quarterbacks combined for 101 rushing attempts in 2022, ranked 6th in the NFL. Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Justin Fields, Lamar Jackson, and Daniel Jones are the only quarterbacks that outpaced the Falcons duo in rush attempts last season.
Ridder also possesses a 98th percentile 40-yard dash and 94th percentile weight-adjusted speed score, proving to be one of the most athletic quarterbacks in the NFL today.
Ryan Tannehill is an excellent example of the rushing upside a quarterback in Arthur Smith’s system can yield. Tannehill started 26 games for Smith, rushing for 11 total touchdowns during that time.
Ridder is surrounded by an excellent offensive line (Ranked 7th in 2023), capable pass-catchers and elite young talent with Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson at his disposal.
Running Back
Bijan Robinson is the dead-to-rights RB1 in all dynasty formats and has just as strong of an argument to finish as the RB1 in redraft leagues as well. ADP RB3/4 - 9th Overall.
In 2020, as a true freshman, the superstar rusher led Texas with 703 rushing yards, setting a program record by averaging 8.2 YPC on 86 rush attempts. The dual-threat dynamo also flashed his intangible upside as a receiving threat, hauling in 15 receptions for 196 yards (13.1 YPR) and two touchdowns.
As a sophomore in 2021, Robinson received first-team All-Big 12 honors by smashing through would-be-tacklers for 1127 yards and 11 touchdowns on 195 carries (5.7 YPC), ranking 8th in the nation with 142.2 scrimmage yards per game.
The 2022 season would serve as Robinson’s magnum opus to an already impressive analytical profile. The soon-to-be first-round NFL Draft pick was recognized with the Doak Walker award as the NCAA’s top running back while also garnering praise as a first-team Associated Press All-American and All-Big 12 Team selection.
Robinson rounded out his collegiate career with 1580 rushing yards on 258 attempts (6.1 YPC) with 18 rushing touchdowns, 19 receptions, 314 receiving yards (16.5 YPR) and two receiving touchdowns.
The generational rusher averaged 4.1 yards after contact per attempt while compiling 2370 total yards after contact across three seasons at Texas.
Robinson leads all 2023 NFL Draft eligible running backs with 212 avoided tackles and a 162.2 Elusive rating per PFF and also profiles as one of the best receivers in the class, accumulating 13.7% of Texas Receiving Touchdowns as a 19-year-old Sophomore where he averaged 1.0 RY/TPA and 1.63 YPRR.
The Doak Walker Award winner has accumulated three consecutive years of top-end production in college, smashing through analytic models and Big 12 defenses as a bonafide superstar before he ever steps foot on an NFL field. RB1 Overall in both production and value is a highly likely outcome for Robinson’s profile.
Every single running back drafted in the Top 10 in NFL history has received more than 60.0% of the team’s total rushing opportunities as a rookie.
Robinson is staring down the pipeline of a monumental opportunity share in an Arthur Smith-led offense and could easily return value as the number one running back in all of fantasy this season.
Tyler Allgeier is flying under the radar as one of the most overlooked high-upside handcuffs in fantasy football. ADP: RB46 - 142nd Overall.
Entering his second season, Allgeier is undeniably behind the generational talent of Bijan Robinson, although the Falcons' early depth charts would like you to believe otherwise.
Allgeier’s position on the depth chart is somewhat irrelevant to the weekly utility he brings to the Falcons and your fantasy rosters.
His upside is reliant on pure rushing as Robinson and Patterson profile as elite receiving threats but Allgeier has plenty of path to relevance as a goalline threat/early down thumper with immense league-winning upside if Robinson faces injuries.
Allgeier averaged 10.0 PPG as a rookie, rushing for 1035 yards on only 210 attempts for 4.9 YPC and four touchdowns.
He posted three consecutive RB1 finishes in the fantasy playoffs from Week 15 through Week 17 with RB8, RB12 and RB12 outings.
Allgeier also compiled an RB1 outing in 100% of the contests in which he received more than 60.0% of the team’s total offensive snaps.
He racked up 13 runs of 20 yards or more, evading a total of 65 tackles along the way, both ranking top 12 in the NFL.
Even more impressive is that Allgeier managed all of these metrics as a rookie while facing the 5th highest stack front rate in the NFL as Arthur Smith essentially told defenses before every play that they were going to run the football.
Allgeier is a violently physical runner with excellent vision and a refusal to go down, three things that are highly coveted by his head coach.
Allgeier will undeniably have a role within this offense. Managers simply need to understand that Robinson’s RB1 ceiling and Allgeier’s stand-alone utility are not mutually exclusive.
On the last legs of his career and an entire season removed from his year nine breakout, Cordarelle Patterson profiles as a change-of-pace receiving threat that can spell Bijan Robinson on long-distance drives.
Patterson’s utility in the receiving game will provide minimal upside as the Falcons develop the other pass-catchers on the offense.
The veteran running back will rely on injuries and spike weeks buoyed by unpredictable touchdown output to find relevance this season.
Wide Receiver
Drake London has a consensus ADP of WR24, exhibiting a mixed bag of wishful hope and tentative wariness surrounding the second-year star wideout.
The Falcons may open up the offense more with Ridder at the helm but they will still be a run-focused offense.
In 2022 the Falcons accumulated just 2699 passing yards on 415 passing attempts, putting up 2718 rushing yards on 559 carries. They scored 17 touchdowns in each category.
The Falcons' 2022 offensive tendencies left little room for upside projections at the wide receiver position.
Nonetheless, Drake London was able to record a historically elite season as a rookie. The Falcons receiver hauled in 72 passes for 866 receiving yards and four touchdowns on an absurd 29.4% target share, setting a new all-time high for target share in a player’s first season.
Unfortunately, the total counting stats tell a different story to London’s elite peripheral metrics.
London garnered just 117 total targets (WR22) despite being ranked 5th in target share (29.4%) and 2nd in target rate (32.4%) in 2022.
London surpassed all thresholds that suggest a sophomore rise in production.
Mack Hollins could become an early-season riser as the Falcons' number two receiver.
His current ADP of WR98 suggests that Hollins is going undrafted in most seasonal leagues but his name is one to watch out for on waiver wires and in Best Ball leagues.
Tight End
Broto is all in on Kyle Pitts' declining cost in fantasy drafts this season.
Pitts is currently being drafted at a career-low ADP of TE4, 59 Overall.
Last season Pitts ranked 9th in True Target Value amongst tight ends, topping all players at the position in aDOT (13.1 Yards) with a target share of 27.3% (TE2) on an insane target rate of 34.3% (TE1).
Pitts also led all eligible NFL Players with a league-low catchable target rate of 59.3%, a league-high off-target pass rate of 39.0% and a true catch percentage below 50.0%, falling victim to the horrendously inaccurate deliveries of Marcus Mariota.
Year three has been a historic breakout threshold for tight ends, with the highest percentage of top-12 TE finishes coming from year three players when looking at breakout rates from 2012-2022.
Now with a clean bill of health entering his third season, Pitts should thrive as an elite pass-catching and fantasy weapon for the Falcons and fantasy managers alike.
Dynasty Sleepers and Stashes
Allgeier entered the NFL with elite pure rushing analytics, posting a collegiate career average of 6.4 YPC, 133.4 YPG, and 2.0 Yards Per Team play with an absurd team touchdown market share of 75.8% in his best season.
Allgeier landed in an incredibly favorable scenario with Arthur Smith, riding a few rough early-season rookie waves before smashing his way to a 1000-yard season and three consecutive RB1 finishes to close out the year.
Unfortunately, as proven time and time again, fourth-round draft capital is a death knell for job security, regardless of year one production.
The Falcons exhibited that philosophy by jumping the gun at 1.08 to select Bijan Robinson in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Allgeier is no longer the top dog in the backfield but he can still provide weekly utility to your roster with an obvious path to increased value if the Falcons' new franchise running back misses time.
Full Episode
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Offensive Outlook
Dennis Allen enters his second season as head coach in 2022 after spending the past seven seasons as the defensive coordinator of the Saints.
Allen leaves all of his offensive decisions to Saints offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael.
Carmichael's in his 15th season as New Orleans Saints offensive coordinator/assistant after tutoring the quarterbacks his first three years with the club.
In 2022, Carmichael helped steer the offense to improvements in the passing game, despite a wide array of injuries and missed games amongst the offensive personnel including needing to start nine different offensive line combinations.
The Saints improved from being ranked 32nd in 2021 to 16th in 2022 in net passing yards per game.
Carmichael’s system led Andy Dalton to set a career-high in completion percentage (66.7%) in 2022.
The Saints finished 2022 with a 7-10 Record (3rd NFC South), ranked 22nd in Points Per Game (19.4), 23rd in Pass Percentage (52.4%) and 13th in Run Percentage (47.6%)
Notable Offensive Additions: QB Derek Carr, RB Jamaal Williams, TE Jimmy Graham, WR James Washington, TE Foster Moreau, Rookie RB Kendre Miller, Rookie WR A.T. Perry, Rookie QB Jake Haener.
Notable Offensive Subtractions: QB Andy Dalton, RB Mark Ingram, TE Adam Trautman, WR Deonte Harty (Formerly Harris).
Quarterback
Derek Carr is likely going undrafted in standard 1QB leagues with a 2023 ADP of QB19/144th Overall.
The long-time Raiders quarterback finished last season as the QB19 in PPG, averaging 15.5 PPG and the QB16 Overall with a True Throw Value ranked 21st.
Carr may not be a target for managers in their fantasy drafts this season but the veteran signal-caller brings an undeniable upgrade at quarterback to the Saints in 2023. No longer will the offense have to suffer through a season with Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston, and Taysom Hill sailing passes.
Anyone denying that Carr is an immediate and immense upgrade is blatantly and blindly ignoring the stats.
We’ll use Dalton as the primary sample as he played and started 14 games for the Saints in 2022.
Carr easily surpasses Dalton on pure counting stats alone, compiling 3522 passing yards for an average of 234.2 yards per game on 502 attempts (34.5 att per game) with 24 passing touchdowns and 14 interceptions whereas Dalton managed just 2870 yards for an average of 205.0 yards per game on 378 attempts (30.1) with 18 passing touchdowns and nine interceptions.
Dalton edged Carr in Yards Per Attempt at a slight margin of 7.6 yards to 7.0 but Carr greatly surpassed the “Red Rifle” in EPA, QBR and Success Rate vs Man Coverage.
Carr is by no means a must-draft quarterback in fantasy, with his Super Bowl aspirations and MVP-caliber seasons likely lost to the past.
Nonetheless, Carr is still an above-average starter that provides an immediate and immense upgrade to the entire Saints offense.
Carr’s style is the perfect fit for the Saints’ offensive philosophy and the budding weapons they have in-house.
Just last season, Carr ranked 5th in Air Yards (4701), 5th in tight window throws of 15 yards or more (33), 5th in Deep Ball Attempts (72), and 2nd in Air Yards Per Pass Attempt (9.4).
Over the last three seasons combined, Carr ranks top-5 in both Deep Ball Completion Percentage and Deep Ball Pass Attempts Per Game.
Carr’s vertical throwing style and propensity to air it out should vastly help the already rapid development of second-year wideout Chris Olave.
Over the last four seasons, Carr has supported the WR3, WR10, TE2, and TE3 overall as pass-catching assets.
There should be minimal worry when investing in the Saints' offense this season.
Wide Receiver
Chris Olave had a near-transcendent rookie season yet is being widely undervalued concerning his potential upside as a top-5 positional producer in PPG.
In 2022 the Saints first-round rookie wideout played in 15 games, tallying 72 Receptions (WR 20) on 119 Targets (WR 26) with 26.7% Target Share (WR15) on a 29.3% Target Rate (WR10) for 1045 Receiving Yards (4 REC TD).
Those numbers would be respectable for any wide receiver in any given season. Doing so as a rookie is truly historic. Even more impressive still, was the ridiculous efficiency in which Olave achieved his final stats.
The Saints star receiver averaged 8.8 Yards Per Target (WR22), 14.5 Yards Per Reception (WR21), accumulating 1670 Air Yards (WR 8) with a 40.8% Air Yards Share (WR3) on 14.0 Yard aDOT (WR9) with 2.57 Yards Per Route Run (WR10), 2.25 Yards Per Team Pass Attempt (WR9) and 13.2 PPR PPG (WR25)
Olave had 11 games with 6 or more targets in 2022, averaging over 15.0 PPR PPG in those contests.
He set the single-season rookie record for Cumulative Air Yards and Air Yards Share, including the highest single-game Air Yards total for a rookie which also sits third all-time.
To put in perspective just how truly transcendent Olave’s rookie numbers are here are all of the wideouts in 2022 that posted more than 2.40 yards per route run with a target share higher than 25.0%: Justin Jefferson, Davante Adams, AJ Brown, Tyreek Hill, Amon-Ra St.Brown, Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp and Chris Olave AS A ROOKIE!!!
Here is a list of all the wide receivers drafted in round one in NFL History with at least 2.25 yards per route run as a rookie: Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Odell Beckham Jr., Demaryius Thomas, Hakeem Nicks, Percy Harvin and Chris Olave.
There have also only ever been three first-round rookie wide receivers in NFL History to post at least 2.00 yards per route run with an aDOT greater than 14.0 yards in their inaugural seasons: AJ Green, Mike Evans, and Chris Olave.
Let’s take it a step further. There have only ever been five rookies in NFL History to accrue more than 2.25 yards per team pass attempt in their first season: Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Odell Beckham Jr., A.J. Brown, and Chris Olave.
Managers should take note that Garrett Wilson was not listed on any of these lists yet is valued an entire round ahead of his former collegiate teammate.
There is no underselling just how special Olave’s rookie season was.
The Saints' top wideout certainly has more target competition this season with a healthy Michael Thomas and rising sleeper Rashid Shaheed emerging but the second-year star is on a meteoric rise that cannot be stopped.
Thomas has never finished outside of the top-12 wide receivers in PPG (min. 8 GP) at any point in his career.
Even last season, Thomas averaged 17.0 PPG across his three healthy starts.
The glaring and undeniable issue is that Thomas has started just 10 games over the last two seasons, piling up a litany of lower body injuries to his now age-30 body.
Thomas could easily return value as the WR41 in PPR leagues but a career resurgence for the long-time Saints star is highly unlikely.
Shaheed has some interesting appeal in Best Ball formats for spike weeks that correlate with big-play touchdown production.
Running Back
Alvin Kamara received a three-game suspension to begin the 2023 season but is currently healthy, training with the team and expected to make a return to his regular dual-threat role in Week 4.
The consensus negative connotations on Kamara’s fantasy outlook for 2023 would have managers believe that the Saints' star running back has zero value based on a down 2022 campaign.
Kamara did indeed face regression but nowhere near the levels suggested by his current devaluation.
The veteran running back ended 2022 with 898 Rushing Yards, matching his total from the season prior despite handling 17 fewer Carries.
Kamara ranked 7th in total receptions (57) and 5th in Receiving Yards (490) despite playing in only 15 games.
Kamara’s per-game averages of 3.8 Receptions Per Game and 32.6 Receiving Yards Per Game were directly on par with his previous career averages.
He also faced some unlucky outlier touchdown production in 2022, scoring just four times on a middling Saints offense, three of which came in one game.
The Saints star finished 2022 averaging 14.1 PPG as the RB13 but is currently being drafted as the RB28 Overall.
Jamaal Williams poses a continued threat to Kamara’s regressing touchdown season but he will not affect his teammate’s pass-catching upside.
Williams is coming off a career year, tallying 17 touchdowns as the Lions' early-down/goal-line back.
The veteran bruiser will have immense upside as the lead back during Kamara’s suspension with weekly upside after his return.
Kendre Miller has an uphill battle to relevant production in his rookie season. Miller will be buried on the depth chart behind Williams for rush attempts and Kamara for any receiving work.
The rookie’s only path to meaningful fantasy value is if the entire backfield is placed on injured reserve.
Tight End
Juwan Johnson (ADP: TE20 - 169th Overall), Jimmy Graham (ADP: UND) and QB/TE hybrid Taysom Hill (ADP: TE23 - 182nd Overall) make up the only three fantasy-relevant names for the Saints at the tight end position.
Johnson is likely the best bet to maintain relevance of all three options, showcasing a more stable floor than Graham and Hill with a higher ceiling than both (save for Hill’s potential games as a starting quarterback).
Still, Johnson posted a mere 14.1% target share and 19.1% target rate in 2022, leading all Saints tight ends in both categories.
This offense will likely be funneled through two outside receivers (Olave, Thomas) with a healthy dose of ground and pound from a stacked Saints backfield (Kamara, Williams, Miller).
The emergence of Rashid Shaheed coupled with a healthy Michael Thomas and the inevitable superstar breakout of Chris Olave leaves little on the plate for the tight ends to eat.
Johnson has some touchdown utility but those points will be entirely unpredictable.
Taysom Hill always has a potential role as the Saints' starting quarterback and will be continued to be used in gadget-esque roles, providing some appeal for managers in Best Ball formats.
Dynasty Sleepers and Stashes
A.T. Perry is a very large human with terrific athleticism.
Perry measured in at 6 '4'' and 197 lbs at the NFL combine, running a 4.47s 40-yard dash with speed and burst scores above the 75th percentile when adjusted for height and weight.
He broke out in his junior season for Wake Forest catching 71 passes for 1293 yards with 15 touchdowns, averaging 18.2 yards per reception on 135 targets with a target share of 26.2%.
Perry followed that up with an impressive, yet far from elite, senior year where he posted 81 receptions for 1096 yards with 11 touchdowns, averaging 13.5 yards per reception on 129 targets with a target share of 27.3%.
The Saints have a long lineage of developing and utilizing late-round/undrafted wide receivers and Perry fits the mold of a prototypical outside X/Y with fascinating intangibles.
Michael Thomas could conceivably move inside as a slot receiver during the back half of his career, leaving Perry and Shaheed to battle for targets on the outside.
Full Episode
CAROLINA PANTHERS
Offensive Outlook
The franchise has completely revamped the coaching staff after firing Matt Rhule midseason in 2022.
Frank Reich will serve in his first year as the Panthers' Head Coach
Reich most recently served as head coach of the Indianapolis Colts from 2018-22 before himself being fired in the middle of the 2022 season.
Reich has more than 30 years of NFL experience as a player and coach, including serving as the Panthers' first starting quarterback in franchise history after signing with the team during its inaugural season in 1995.
Reich threw the first touchdown pass in Panthers franchise history.
As head coach of the Colts, Reich led the team to the playoffs twice and guided the Colts to 41 wins, including two years with 10-plus wins (2018 and 2020)
Thomas Brown enters his first season as an offensive coordinator for the Panthers.
Most recently served as the assistant head coach/tight ends coach for the Los Angeles Rams in 2022.
Brown joined the Rams as the running backs coach in 2020, assisting the staff during the team’s Super Bowl-winning season.
In 2022 the Panthers finished with a 7-10 Record (2nd in NFC South), ranking 19th in Points Per Game (20.4).
Notable Offensive Additions: RB Miles Sanders, WR D.J. Chark, WR Adam Thielen, TE Hayden Hurst, Rookie QB Bryce Young, Rookie WR Jonathan Mingo.
Notable Offensive Subtractions: WR D.J. Moore, RB D’Onta Foreman, RB Christian McCaffrey, QB Sam Darnold.
Quarterback
Bryce Young is an outstanding collegiate prospect with a bright future consisting of an elite ceiling should he meet his potential.
Unfortunately, it is highly unlikely that the Panthers' new franchise quarterback reaches those heights in his first season.
Young is an undersized quarterback behind a below-average offensive line surrounded by bridge-gap offensive weapons at the end of their careers.
What managers need to acknowledge is that even if Young smashes his rookie expectations, it will likely be largely inconsequential to your fantasy roster.
A ceiling of 3500 passing yards and 25 touchdowns would yield a phenomenal season relative to historic rookie production while also remaining well below the QB1 tier in PPG.
Wide Receiver
Jonathan Mingo (ADP: WR67), D.J. Chark (ADP: W68), Adam Thielen (ADP: WR69) make up the Panthers' top three receivers.
Chark and Thielen are both at the tail end of their careers whereas Mingo is a relatively low-rated prospect entering his first season in the NFL.
Thielen has regressed well below his career norm in recent seasons, posting just 70 receptions and 716 yards with six touchdowns in 2022 despite ranking 2nd amongst all wide receivers in total routes run.
The long-time Vikings veteran ranked 88th in Yards Per Route Run, 81st in Yards Per Reception, and 41st in PPG despite ending the season ranked 35th in True Target Value.
Chark has played only 15 games over the last two years combined, representing a volatile fantasy asset with an unpredictable production ceiling volleyed by random touchdown spikes.
Mingo has never produced a single season in college with more than 900 receiving yards and never once led his team in Market Share of receiving yards or receiving touchdowns.
Running Back
For the first time in his career, Miles Sanders is staring down the pipeline of a MONUMENTAL opportunity share as the starting running back for the Panthers.
The wildly unproductive career backup Chuba Hubbard is the only player on the depth chart that poses any semblance of a threat to Sanders' volume.
It is worth noting that Hubbard couldn’t even usurp the shell of D’onta Foreman last season.
Sanders has long been one of the most efficient running backs in the NFL on a per-touch basis but has not progressed as linearly as expected since his rookie season.
Last season he rushed for 1269 yards (5th) despite a snap share ranked 20th at 57.9% with a 40.3% route participation rating, ranked 29th and a total opportunity share of 66.4%.
Those above-mentioned numbers are sure to go up in 2023 as the Panthers lean heavily on Sanders who also happens to represent their highest-paid free agent of the offseason.
Sanders' main lack of opportunity has been in the receiving department, an area that greatly regressed in volume after Jalen Hurts was named the starter.
A highly disappointing factor considering Sanders put up a promising 63 targets/50 receptions in his rookie season.
As mentioned several times, running back targets are a product of coach, quarterback, and player whereas wide receiver targets correlate much stronger to the player alone.
I.E. a wideout earns his targets and will maintain a similar percentage to their career average regardless of coaching scheme or quarterback.
Running backs on the other hand are much more reliant on quarterbacks and designed schemes when it comes to earning their targets.
Sanders is alone in a backfield with a coach that loves utilizing workhorse roles and an undersized rookie quarterback that just helped to produce the greatest receiving profile of any running back in NCAA history (Jahmyr Gibbs).
Sanders' current draft position fade is more a product of roster construction and team-building philosophy than an indictment of the player.
He’s currently going off the board as the RB20 and 52nd player overall.
Sanders represents an excellent “Hero RB” strategy for those that load up on wide receivers early as well as a terrific tertiary option in a “Bully RB” build for managers that enjoy stacking up early at the running back position.
Chuba Hubbard (ADP: RB55 - 160 Overall) is nothing more than a long-con handcuff stash that likely does not possess the talent to affect your fantasy rosters even if he somehow earns a starting role.
Tight End
Hayden Hurst is merely a deep streaming target at the tight end position.
The former first-round pick had one of the best seasons of his career last season on the Bengals while receiving high-value targets from Joe Burrow.
Nevertheless, Hurst peaked as the TE19 in PPG.
An undeniable downgrade in target value for a player with a weekly peak ceiling of a fringe low-end TE1 makes Hurst undesirable in most formats.
Dynasty Sleepers and Stashes
Jonathan Mingo measured in at a hulking 6 '1” and 225 lbs.
The 22-year-old rookie spent 4 seasons at Ole Miss and did not secure more than 400 receiving yards until his senior season where he posted just 861 receiving yards on 51 receptions with 92 targets and a target share of 23.8%.
He’s a developmental project that the Panthers are absolutely in love with.
The team is in desperate need of wideout help during the Bryce Young era after trading away a future first-round pick to the Bears and signing bridge veterans D.J. Chark and Adam Thielen.
Terrace Marshall is the only other name to overcome and he has proven to be a complete bust and irrelevant asset.
Conversely, Mingo brings intangibles and decent draft capital as the first wideout selected in the Frank Reich regime.
The former Ole Miss product Runs a 4.46s 40-yard dash with a height/weight-adjusted speed score of 114.2, putting him in the 96th percentile of all wideouts tested in NFL History.
He also posted a 1.54s 10-yard split with a 40” vertical leap and a 10’ 9” broad jump giving him a burst score of 131.7, putting him in the 91st percentile of all wideouts tested in NFL History.
It may take some time but the Panthers are going to feed this kid to the sharks sooner rather than later to see if they have something special.
Full Episode
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Todd Bowels enters his second year as Buccaneers head coach after spending three seasons as the team's defensive coordinator (2019-21).
Bowles led the Buccaneers to an NFC South title in his first year as the head coach in Tampa Bay, joining Jon Gruden as the only coach in franchise history to accomplish that feat in year one.
Bowles brings in a new offensive coordinator to replace Byron Leftwitch after the team operated with a one-sided pass-first approach in 2022.
Dave Canales will serve in his first season with the Buccaneers in any capacity.
Previously spent the past 13 seasons with the Seahawks (2010-22), where he was a part of 10 playoff appearances, two conference championships and a Super Bowl XLVIII title.
Canales originally joined the Seahawks as an offensive quality control coach (2010-12) before being elevated to assistant quarterbacks coach (2013-14) and later wide receivers coach (2015-17), quarterbacks coach (2018-19, 2022) and pass game coordinator (2020-21).
As quarterbacks coach in 2022, Canales helped propel Geno Smith to his first career Pro Bowl selection, in addition to receiving Comeback Player of the Year.
Smith was also named the NFL's Most Improved Player after leading the NFL with a 69.8% completion percentage and setting career highs in completions (399), passing yards (4,282) and passing touchdowns (30).
In 2022 the Buccaneers finished with an 8-9 Record (1st in NFC South), ranking 25th in Points Per Game (18.2) despite being ranked 1st in Pass Percentage (66.1%) and dead last in Run Percentage (33.9%).
Notable Offensive Additions: QB Baker Mayfield, RB Chase Edmonds
Notable Offensive Subtractions: QB Tom Brady, RB Leonard Fournette, WR Scotty Miller.
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield will likely beat out Kyle Trask in one of the most underwhelming quarterback battles in recent memory, giving the former first-round quarterback one more chance to prove himself as a starter.
Mayfield has not been a top-24 quarterback since his rookie season and Trask is a second-round rookie quarterback entering his third season with nine total career pass attempts in the NFL.
Mayfield is currently being drafted as the QB32 in redraft leagues, suggesting he is simply a forgotten fill-in for leagues that must start two quarterbacks.
Running Back
Rachaad White will undoubtedly see a significant increase in touches during his second season.
The Buccaneers running back showed flashes of his deep skill set as a rookie but remained locked behind Leonard Fournette as the secondary option in the backfield.
Chase Edmonds, Ronald Jones (SUS), Ke’Shawn Vaughn, and undrafted rookie Sean Tucker will compete for the secondary role behind White.
None of the above-mentioned players possess a real threat to White’s ceiling as a dual-threat rusher/receiver.
White finished the 2022 season ranked top 12 in both running back targets (58) and receptions (50).
The biggest con against White’s 2023 outlook is the Buccaneers' offense in and of itself.
With Mayfield/Trask at the helm, the Buccaneers are projected to have one of the league’s lowest-ranked offenses.
A low touchdown ceiling will ultimately cap White’s upside but his ability as a pass-catcher could ultimately supplant such a loss in scoring.
Wide Receiver
Mike Evans was dangerously close to ending his streak of seasons with 1000 or more receiving yards in 2022 before going berserk mode in Week 17 against the Panthers, catching 10 of 12 targets for 207 yards and three touchdowns, securing 48.7 fantasy points in championship weekend as the WR1 overall.
Evans finished the year with 77 receptions on 128 targets for 1124 yards with 6 touchdowns, averaging 15.0 PPG as the WR13 despite a True Target Value ranked 29th.
Nine seasons in the NFL. Nine seasons with more than 1000 yards. Unfortunately, it appears as if Evans is regressing beyond resurgence.
Evans' three lowest career target shares have come in the last three seasons, and he has not cracked more than 20.0% of the team’s targets since 2019.
Continued regression in opportunity shares could disintegrate the consistent ceiling of Evans' production as he transitions from the GOAT to two sacrificial lambs in Mayfield and Trask
It is more likely that the Buccaneers end up with the first overall pick than it is for Evans to produce another WR1 season in 2023.
Luckily, for the first time in his career, Evans doesn't have to return WR1 value to be a massive boost to your roster.
Evans' current ADP of WR34 would be 10 spots lower than his lowest career PPG finish which came in his second season in the NFL, all the way back in 2015.
Yes, there is a significant likelihood that the entire Buccaneers offense falls off a cliff this season. Borderline WR4 prices make any risk a moot point.
There is a little more inherent risk with Chris Godwin (ADP: WR27 - 64 Overall) at his current cost.
Godwin missed two games last season and was slow to start after coming off an ACL tear in 2021.
It took him until week 10 to post a top-12 finish, accruing only five such performances across 15 games played.
Godwin finished the 2022 season averaging 0.1 points less than Evans with 14.9 as the WR15 in PPG.
The crafty wideout posted 104 receptions, 1023 receiving yards and three touchdowns.
Godwin finished ranked as the WR18 in True Target value with 142 targets.
Ironically, Godwin’s 142 targets translated to WR10 in total targets but just WR31 in target share at 21.8%, providing a stark example of just how much the Buccaneers passed in 2022. That metric will DRASTICALLY decline with new quarterbacks at the helm.
Godwin has produced just two WR1 PPG seasons in six seasons with a continuously wavering ceiling amidst inconsistent quarterback play and injuries.
In 2022, he finished outside of the top 24 wide receivers in all major efficiency stats including Target Share (21.8%/WR31), Target Rate (25.5%/WR25), Air Yards Share (16.8%/WR71), aDOT (5.6 YDS/WR99), Yards Per Route Run (1.84/WR38), Yards Per Target (7.2/WR71), Yards Per Reception (9.8/WR93), Yards Per Team Pass Attempt (1.52/WR38), Points Per Route (0.40/WR33), and Points Per Target (1.57/WR72).
All of those stats point to the undeniable and glaring truth that Godwin’s production in 2022 was entirely reliant on the sheer volume produced by the Buccaneer’s offense who ranked number one in total pass attempts and pass percentage by a wide margin.
Tight End
Otton vastly outperformed the expectations of a largely unknown fourth-round rookie tight end in 2022.
The first-year player finished with 42 receptions for 392 yards and two touchdowns.
The cards are stacked against a significant leap in his second season with a major downgrade in both volume and value of targets with the departure of Tom Brady.
Dynasty Sleepers and Stashes
Cade Otton posted five TE1 finishes as a rookie in 2022 with TE12, TE10, TE4, TE1, and TE7 outings across 16 games played.
Otton is on track for continued linear progression in his second season as the Buccaneers' unquestioned starting tight end.
Rookie running back Sean Tucker was incredibly productive in the NCAA as a dual-athlete superstar in both track and field and football, exhibiting incredible breakaway speed while at Syracuse.
Medical red flags left Tucker undrafted in the 2023 NFL Draft.
If the rookie can latch onto the 53-man roster he could perceivably carve out a valuable role ahead of Chase Edmonds who is coming off the worst statistical season of his career and will soon be 28 years old and Ronald Jones who is facing a PED suspension.
Kyle Trask will have to beat out Baker Mayfield for a starting role in the regular season but would see an undeniable rise in stock should he acquire the gig.
Trask will never create league-winning production for your Superflex rosters but he's certainly worth a stash on the off chance that you can flip him for a mid-to-late second-round rookie pick.
Full Episode
Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
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By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.