Sleepers and Busts: Week 2

SLEEPERS

QB: Mac Jones - New England Patriots

It’s rarely a good idea to bet on a player that most weren’t high on coming off a big game. This could be an exception. Post-hype sleeper candidate Mac Jones attempted a career-high 54 passes in Week 1, a trend that could be a lot more common with OC Bill O’Brien returning after a long stint with the Texans and Alabama. The passing game already looks much better than in any other year post-Tom Brady era. Jones stays at home in Week 2 as the team hosts the Dolphins who are coming off a thrilling 36-34 win over the Chargers. The Chargers were more dominant on the ground than through the air with Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley finishing with 16 rushes each for 91+ yards apiece. That could indicate a big game for the Patriots' running backs rather than another big performance for Jones, but I still like his chances to outperform his current projections. The Dolphins were the 5th best matchup last year for quarterbacks per Broto’s True Matchup Rank. The Dolphins allowed more points over average to receiving running backs than rushing production which opens up an easy avenue for high-end production if Jones establishes an early connection with pass-catcher extraordinaire Rhamondre Stevenson. Expect Miami to fix some of those run-defense issues while still being very exploitable overall. Mac should be available in most leagues which makes him a great fill-in for a team that lost Aaron Rodgers or has been streaming. 

Themi Michalakis

RB: David Montgomery - Detroit Lions

After the season opener against the Chiefs, one thing became very clear for those who doubted - David Montgomery is going to have a key role in this Lions offense. He dominated the snap share with nearly 80% and was force-fed carries, finishing the game with 21 for 74 yards and a touchdown. That set him up for 13.4-half PPR points and an RB13 finish on the week. Not too shabby of a start for a guy being drafted as the RB24 heading into the season. Coming off the week one victory, Montgomery and the Lions now have their sights set on topping the Seahawks. The Lions’ Week 2 home opener should have plenty of scoring and has all the makings for a juicy fantasy matchup with the 2nd highest projected over/under total of the weekend at 47.5 points. Last week against the Rams, the Seahawks allowed a whopping three rushing touchdowns to the duo of Kyren Williams and Cam Akers. The two also combined for over 80+ yards on the ground. The Seahawks' defense is susceptible to the run and as displayed in Week 1, Dan Campbell loves feeding Montgomery with carries, especially at the goal line. Don’t be scared of Jahmyr Gibbs “stealing work” as he is utilized in an entirely different way and the Lions have had a tandem backfield approach for multiple seasons now. It is wheels up on David Montgomery this week and he is a high-quality start in your fantasy lineups. 

Boyd Armstrong

WR: Nico Collins - Houston Texans

The Texans boast one of the weaker receiving corps in the NFL today. For better or for worse, Nico Collins is undoubtedly atop the depth chart as the top weapon in the passing game. Facing off against division rival Panthers in Week 1, Collins led all Texans players with a 25.0% target share (11 Targets) and Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR) of 1.618. Collins matched veteran Robert Woods with a team-high six receptions but produced 80 yards (158 Air Yards) to Woods’ 57 yards (75 Air Yards) as the younger wideout found success on a deeper depth of target. Heading into Week 2, Collins draws a favorable matchup against a weakened Colts secondary that just allowed Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones to run rampant. Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud is undeniably a less polished passer than Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence but the sheer volume of opportunities delivered to Collins should be enough to erase some of those inconsistencies in this matchup. Expect the young wideout to have a similarly productive performance as Week 1 with the increased upside in the touchdown department.

Matt Ward

TE: Sam LaPorta - Detroit Lions

Sam LaPorta’s rookie debut may not have jumped off the stat page but the first-year tight end boasted a quietly impressive outing with all of the signs of continued positive progression. LaPorta was entrusted with an 83.0% snap share (58), posting 31 more snaps than the next closest tight end on the Lions roster. The young star-in-the-making earned five targets (14.3% Target Share) on a 19.0% target rate (Targets/Route) and a sensational route participation rating of 72.0% (40.0% of which came lined up as a WR). LaPorta also recorded the most receptions (5) by a tight end in their rookie debut since 2019 when former Lions tight end T.J. Hockenson recorded six. The Lions (1-0) host the Seahawks (0-1) at home in Week 2, a defense that has historically struggled at stemming tight end production over the last three seasons. In 2022 the Seahawks allowed 17.8 PPG to the tight end position, equating to 46.9% above the expected average while ranking first in True Matchup Rank to the position. Just last week, the team conceded a 100.0% catch rate to Tyler Higbee allowing the Rams tight end to haul in three of three targets for 49 yards. LaPorta is staring down the pipeline of a low-end TE1 week with the potential for immense upside as the Lions' number two receiving option alongside Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Matt Ward

BUSTS

QB: Matthew Stafford - Los Angeles Rams

Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams received most of the fantasy hype from the Rams’ 30-13 win over the Seahawks but Matthew Stafford was a surprisingly unsung hero. Stafford threw for 334 yards and while he didn’t score a TD, he showed phenomenal field presence and ball security, absorbing zero sacks with no turnovers. That may make him a sneaky waiver add for especially desperate managers as they look forward to a game where the Rams could be trailing early and passing often. Positive game script aside, Stafford is trending toward a benchable asset against a tough 49ers defense. Although garbage time points may come - and even his talent could prevail - it’s going to be very hard to trust him in your starting lineup. The 49ers boast a top-3 defense with a terrifyingly stout secondary with one of the best cornerbacks in the league Charvarious Ward captaining the squad. Building off of a stellar 2022, Ward allowed an incredible 5.6 passer rating when targeted against the Steelers last week. Safety Talanoa Hufanga is coming into his own as well and is capable of turning any play into an instant highlight reel. The 49ers were the 8th hardest matchup for quarterbacks in True Matchup Rank last season and should continue to pester opposing passers throughout the 2023 campaign. The rolling hype trains of Puka Nakua and Tutu Atwell are an undeniably exciting story but are unlikely to repeat their success from Week 1. Relatively unproven receiving weapons won’t be able to save Stafford’s fantasy week. Look elsewhere for upside against one of the league’s worst quarterback matchups.

Themi Michalakis

RB: Najee Harris - Pittsburgh Steelers

Najee Harris is nothing more than a liability in your lineup and yet he’s still being ranked as a top 15 fantasy option weekly. I’m not buying. The entire thesis behind drafting Najee Harris has been “volume, volume, volume”, except now Jaylen Warren is starting to steal that volume like the Grinch on Christmas. In week one against the 49ers, Jaylen Warren was on the field for 40% of the team’s snaps, stealing valuable time and touches from Harris who recorded a snap share of just 52.0%. Harris’ Week 1 snap percentage is the third-lowest total of his entire NFL career. Warren also finished with the same number of touches as Harris, despite fewer snaps, with the duo tallying eight touches apiece. Week 1 also marked the first game in Harris’ career that he finished a game with less than 10 touches. To make matters worse, Harris was heavily out-targeted by Warren 6 to 2, further fueling the evidence that the Steelers are more than comfortable with utilizing Warren as a multi-down option. Projecting Harris’ fantasy outlook for Week 2 and beyond yields a less-than-positive range of outcomes. You have a running back who is splitting time in a committee while completely losing all receiving usage on a meandering offense, creating a terrible situation for fantasy managers. This week Harris stacks up against a solid Browns defensive front that stonewalled Joe Mixon and the Bengals offense in Week 1. Harris is no more than a high-end RB3/low-RB2 and should be treated as such in lineups this week. Do not be afraid to plug someone in to replace him. 

Boyd Armstrong

WR: Drake London - Atlanta Falcons

Head coach Arthur Smith’s archaic offensive philosophy has inevitably nuked the fantasy value of any offensive weapons that do not line up in the backfield. Drake London played 90.0% of the offensive snaps (47) in Week 1, recording zero receptions on two targets (5.6% Target Share). Only one other Falcons wideout received more than 50.0% of the offensive snaps (Mack Hollins - 33 Snaps/63.0% Snap Share). Playing an entire game with only two receivers above a 50.0% snap share is ludicrous in today’s NFL. Now, heading into Week 2, London draws the shadow coverage assignment of perennial All-Pro shutdown corner Jaire Alexander as the Falcons (1-0) host the Packers (1-0). Alexander most recently shadowed Bears’ wideout D.J. Moore, covering the top receiver for 79.3% of his routes and allowing just one reception for four yards on two total targets. Moore’s only catch came against zone coverage with the Packers corner completely shutting his assignment down on man coverage snaps. London will undoubtedly line up opposite Alexander for the majority of the Falcons’ Week 2 contest, leaving little chance for meaningful production on an offense intent on operating with a playbook designed in 1922.

Matt Ward

TE: Tyler Higbee - Los Angeles Rams

Tyler Higbee was in a smash spot to overachieve in Week 1 while playing against a Seahawks team that conceded more points over average to tight ends than any other defense in 2022. Alas, Higbee managed just three catches for 49 yards as the Rams favored Puka Nakua, Tutu Atwell, and Van Jefferson as the top three targets. If Higbee was unable to produce meaningful fantasy points against a positive matchup, there is little evidence to indicate he will be able to succeed against a less favorable defensive assignment. The Rams (1-0) welcome the 49ers (1-0) in a divisional matchup between two bitter team rivals. The 49ers boast one of the best and most well-rounded defensive units in the NFL, namely league-leading cover linebacker Fred Warner and ball-hawking safety Talanoa Hufanga locking down all receiving production in the box. With Warner and Hufanga leading the charge, the 49ers allowed a mere 9.8 PPG to all tight ends in 2022, conceding -14.0% below the expected average of production to the position and a True Matchup Rank of 24th. The Week 1 breakouts of rookie wideout Puka Nacua, second-year receiver Tutu Atwell, and the continued presence of veteran Van Jefferson leave Higbee as the fourth receiving option against a top-tier defense. The Rams veteran tight end is better left on your bench than in your starting lineups.

Matt Ward

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