Teasers:
Last year my teaser legs hit 78.46% of the time and I’m looking to hit a similar profitability mark in 2023. Things are going to be slightly different this year. Instead of giving individual legs that you can mix and match, I’ll be giving you the actual bet to place to make tracking profitability easier to display. Feel free to mix and match on your own since lines on sportsbooks available to you may differ based on your location or time of reading.
All teasers are 2-team 6-point teasers unless otherwise noted. Make sure to only bet teasers at -120 or better.
Teaser 1:
San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) @ Los Angeles Rams O/U: 44.5
Green Bay Packers (+1.5) @ Atlanta Falcons O/U: 40.5
Themi’s Teaser: San Francisco 49ers -1.5, Green Bay Packers +7.5
It’s far too early to be using DVOA to determine which teams are better than others which is why DAVE offers a better view at this point in the season. DAVE stands for DVOA Adjusted for Variation Early, which incorporates preseason models early in the year.The 49ers rank 2nd (15.6%) in DAVE while LA sits at 23rd (-8.1%). It is no surprise that the 49ers - a Super Bowl capable team - with tons of talent and a great HC are so high. Brock Purdy is not immune to mistakes but has continued to prove that he can take advantage of his offensive weapons to lead San Francisco to massive victories.
The Rams looked good in Stafford’s return and are looking to continue that trend in their home opener. Puka Nacua shined as the team’s WR1, while the run game was short of decent. Although they only allowed 13 points to Seattle, neither DVOA nor EPA found the Rams to be especially dominant, especially struggling against the run. Sean McVay will be especially familiar with Kyle Shanahan’s offense but the 49ers just possess too much talent and smarts to give this game away. What may feel like a trap at 7.5 should look a lot better as a win by just 2 points. You trust the uber-talented team with a spread like this nearly every time.
The Falcons are quietly building the league’s most underrated defense after bringing in players like Bud Dupree, Calais Campbell, Tre Flowers, and Jessie Bates III. Whether or not Week 1 was an indication of their future, you have to be excited about Atlanta pairing some incredible skill position players with a defense that can keep them in significantly more games. QB Desmond Ridder will understandably play the biggest part in their success. Ridder wasn’t asked to do much in the 24-10 win and only threw 18 times for 115 yards and a TD. Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier carried the ball 25 times total to lead their team to victory. Against a Packers team that was quite good against a run-focused Bears team, Ridder could seriously be tested and I don’t like his chances. Even if they pull out a win, it should not be by more than a touchdown.
Teaser 2:
Las Vegas Raiders @ Buffalo Bills (-8.5) O/U: 47
Indianapolis Colts (+1.5) @ Houston Texans O/U: 39
Themi’s Teaser: Buffalo Bills -2.5, Indianapolis Colts +7.5
Buffalo has to be shell shocked after Week 1’s Monday Night Football debacle. Even without Aaron Rodgers, the Bills couldn’t stop Zach Wilson and the Jets from forcing OT and ultimately winning the game despite holding a 13-3 halftime lead. Josh Allen had 4 turnovers and was playing like his rookie self, taking unnecessary risks. It was the start of the season so we will give him the benefit of the doubt. Plus, the Jets seem to always have his number. This is still an absolutely elite team and they are favored by over a TD at home. No need to overreact. I expect an outright win here and I love bringing this line down to a win by just a field goal. The Raiders are no slouches especially with Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm but they should ultimately be no match for an angry Bills team.
Anthony Richardson has been a polarizing player all off-season but put up a respectable performance against a shoddy Jaguars secondary in his NFL debut. Richardson completed 24 of his 37 pass attempts for 223 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT. He added another 40 yards and a TD on the ground and overall the Colts put up 21 points, including a fumble recovered for a TD. The game was within one score for nearly 55 minutes with the Colts even taking the lead heading into the 4th quarter, however, Trevor Lawrence and an impressive Jaguars offense ultimately took over and sealed a double digit victory for Jacksonville.
The Texans don’t boast the same firepower and have their own rookie QB in C.J. Stroud, who managed just 9 points in a loss to Baltimore and understandably finished near the bottom in most offensive categories and advanced stats. The same could be said for the Colts, though, who were only 1 spot higher in DVOA and 2 spots below in EPA/play. DAVE still thinks the Colts are slightly better and their defense could be a lot worse. While Baltimore didn’t find immense success on the ground like most expected, they’re still clearly beatable and it’s unlikely that they beat Indianapolis by more than a TD.
Straight Bets:
Colts ML (EVEN) (@ Houston Texans)
For all the reasons listed in the teaser section above, I really like Indy’s chance to win this one outright. While the teaser obviously adds a much-needed level of safety, it also relies on a separate leg and can only pay so much. It also doesn’t mean that the ML itself can’t be a value. I trust Houston to fare better against the Colts than the Ravens but I ultimately trust the Colts just a little bit more. Grab Indy at even money or better.
Browns -2.5 (-110) (@ Pittsburgh Steelers)
The Browns are 5th in DAVE and they showcased why against the Bengals last week. Sure, terrible weather conditions severely hurt the Bengals and showcased why a 1-game sample is nearly useless, however, Cleveland is still a very good team that could look even better as the season progresses. Deshaun Watson is still a good football player no matter how badly people hate that. He was sloppy last season after missing nearly 2 years of football following a holdout and a suspension.He is not a sure-thing to perform as a top-5 QB but he will still be a top-half signal caller. What really helps him is being able to hand the ball off to Nick Chubb whenever he wants, something HC Kevin Stefanski is unlikely to argue against. The Steelers should bounce
back from their 30-7 defeat to the 49ers last week but still look ill-equipped to confidently beat the rival Browns. Kenny Pickett doesn’t look like a franchise QB and the play-calling is mediocre. The Steelers play a very safe and uninspiring brand of football that wins a handful of games each season but seems to require a lot more intangibles and luck to beat out the top teams. Divisional matchups can often be the exception to any type of play but it’s still not a creative team that will now be missing DT Cam Heyward and possibly WR Diontae Johnson. The Steelers have a 21-win home MNF streak that is in serious jeopardy. Their history is inspiring, especially as a Steelers fan, but it’s not enough to give up serious value here. Cleveland should be favored by more than a FG.
Commanders +3.5 (-110) (@ Denver Broncos)
Washington seemed to struggle against a predictably awful Cardinals team last week. I am not too worried overall but I was expecting a lot more ot of Sam Howell as a passer.
By DAVE, the Commanders are a slightly better overall team than the Denver Broncos, heavily relying on a great defense. Both teams relied on their RBs in their close games but the Commanders have been especially great at shutting down RBs, both as rushers and as pass-catchers. The Broncos passing game continued to be lackluster, even with Sean Payton at the helm. Jerry Jeudy is on track to play which is a much needed boost but Russell Wilson continues to leave a lot to be desired.
The matchup of the game will be the Commanders pass rush against the Broncos offensive line. Per ESPN Analytics, the Commanders had the 9th highest pass rush win rate while the Broncos had the 4th highest pass block win rate. I’m excited for what Sean Payton can do in Denver but I can’t trust his team more than a FG in this matchup.
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By Themi Michalakis
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.