The Broto Heat Wave brings you daily previews of every team’s fantasy football prospects in 2023. 32 teams in 32 days. Today we are recapping the episodes from the AFC East, bringing you quick-hitting bullets that summarize everything you need to know about the players and coaches in this division.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Offensive Outlook
Bill Belichick enters his gazillionth year as the Patriots head coach (AKA 24th year/49th year in the NFL).
Nearly five consecutive decades of active NFL experience.
2023 will mark Belichick’s 49th consecutive year as an NFL coach, the most consecutive seasons of any coach in NFL History with only two other coaches in history (both inactive Hall of Famers) having more than 40.
Joe Judge will serve in a promoted role as the assistant head coach in 2023.
Judge returned to the New England Patriots in 2022 as an offensive assistant/quarterbacks coach following a two-year stint as head coach of the New York Giants (2020-21).
Judge enters his tenth season with the Patriots and 14th in the NFL, originally joining the organization as assistant special teams coach in 2012.
He was promoted to special teams coach following Scott O'Brien's retirement in 2015 and in 2019, he served as special team coordinator/wide receivers coach.
Bill O'Brien re-joined the New England Patriots in 2023, as offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach.
O'Brien spent five seasons with the Patriots, from 2007 through the 2011 season, and contributed to five winning seasons, four AFC East Division titles, and two AFC Conference Champions during his time with the team.
The Patriots finished in the top 10 in offense every year during O'Brien's time with the Patriots.
In 2022 the Patriots finished with an 8-9 Record (3rd in AFC East), ranked 16th in Points Per Game (21.4), 18th in Pass Percentage (56.0%), and 18th in Rush Percentage (44.0%).
Notable Offensive Additions: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, TE Mike Gesicki, RB Ezekiel Elliott, QB Trace McSorley, Rookie QB Malik Cunningham, Rookie WR Kayshon Boutte, Rookie WR Demario Douglas.
Notable Offensive Subtractions: RB Damien Harris, WR Jakobi Meyers, TE Jonnu Smith.
Quarterback
Mac Jones has been handling some unjust ridicule after his second-year development was completely derailed by the Patriots operating without an offensive coordinator last season.
Joe Judge and Patricia fumbled their way through play-calling duties in 2022, neither of which had ever worked as an offensive coordinator in the past.
The Patriots' stripped-down and bland offense left Jones with no room for growth following a relatively impressive rookie season.
Jones produced a top-10 completion percentage in his rookie season (67.9% - QB8), throwing for 3801 yards and 22 touchdowns, leading all 2021 rookie quarterbacks in PPG.
The only players to have at least 3800 yards and 22 or more touchdowns in their rookie season over the last 30 years are Justin Herbert, Andrew Luck, Jameis Winston, and Mac Jones.
The only players to have at least 67.9% and 22 or more touchdowns in their rookie season over the last 30 years are Dak Prescott and Mac Jones.
Finally, Jones is the only rookie in the past 30 seasons to throw for more than 3800 yards with at least 22 touchdowns and a completion percentage above 67.0%.
The Patriots' third-year quarterback is by no means a must-draft asset in redraft leagues this season but writing off Jones as a positive regression candidate is foolish.
Running Back
The addition of Ezekiel Elliott to the Patriots backfield has early drafters punching the sky and upcoming drafters worried about Rhamondre Stevenson.
Stevenson ADP: RB10/25th Overall. Elliott ADP: RB51/141st Overall.
Going back to 2020, Eliott produced the lowest rushing total of his career, compiling 979 rushing yards on 244 carries (4.0 YPC) in 15 games played.
The only other time he had failed to reach the 1,000-yard at this juncture of his career was when served a 6-game suspension in 2017 wherein Elliott accrued 983 rushing yards in 10 games.
The 2020 season also yielded new career lows in Yards Per game (65.2), Yards Per Carry (4.0), and touchdowns (6).
In 2021 he was averaging 17 carries, 90.4 rushing yards, and 1.0 touchdowns per game during the first five weeks and then finished the remaining 12 weeks of the season averaging 12.6 carries, 45.8 rushing yards, and 0.4 touchdowns per game while playing through a partially torn PCL.
In those 12 weeks following Week 5, Elliott handled just 152 carries for a measly 550 yards (3.6 YPC) and five touchdowns.
In 2022 Elliott recorded new career lows amidst injuries and the unstoppable breakout of Tony Pollard.
Elliott regressed even further than his 2020 season marking his lowest total of Carries (231), Yards (876), Yards Per Game (58.4), Yards Per Carry (3.8), Targets (23), Catches (17), and Receiving Yards (92) of his career with zero games over 100 rushing yards, which is also the first time in his career in which that has happened.
He finished as the RB22 overall in both total PPR Points and PPG marking the first time in which he finished outside of RB1 status in total points and the third consecutive season in which he ranked at/outside the top 15 RBs in PPG.
What little success Elliott did have as a fantasy asset in 2022 was buoyed by 12 rushing touchdowns (4th best in the NFL), his highest number since 2019.
Seven of his 12 touchdowns came from inside the one-yard line with 10 of his 12 touchdowns occurring six yards or less from the opponents' goal line.
Here’s the kicker: he averaged just 0.41 PPOxTD, ranking 67th among all eligible RBs.
Elliott is seemingly nothing but an inefficient, touchdown-dependent running back who once again finds himself locked into a committee with a more talented weapon. Things are not looking up for Elliott as he enters his first new offense while heading into his 8th year as an NFL player.
Then there’s Rhamondre Stevenson who was relatively and rightfully underrated after his rookie season where he ended as the RB 47 Overall and RB43 in PPG with 133 carries for 606 yards (4.6 YPC) and five total touchdowns adding 14 catches on 18 targets for an additional 123 receiving yards.
An unsuspecting breakout in 2022, led Stevenson to run away (pun intended) with the Patriots' backfield opportunities, securing a team-leading 210 carries, 1,040 rushing yards (5.0 YPC), 61.2 Rushing Yards Per Game, and five rushing TDs.
He owned 32 of the 50 running back Red Zone Rush Attempts (64.0%) and 12 of the 18 carries within the five-yard line (66.6%).
He progressed from 14 catches on 18 targets in 2021 to 69 catches on 88 targets in 2022.
Stevenson's target totals ranked 3rd in 2022 with his receptions total ranked 4th amongst all running backs.
Not only did the Patriots star running back lead the team in carries but he topped the entire roster in receptions as well.
Stevenson showed elite usage in 2022, ranking in the top-12 of all running backs in Rushing Yards (1040), Yards Per Carry (5.0), Targets (88), Receptions (67), Receiving Yards (421), Receiving Yards Per Game (24.8), True Target Value (1.89), Total PPR Points (485), PPR PPG (14.7), Target Percentage (16.3), and Big Plays (9).
The only categories where Elliott had an edge over Stevenson were rushing touchdowns, red zone touches, and red zone efficiency. Which are not so coincidentally Stevenson’s weakest analytical categories.
Stevenson ranked 15th in running back Red Zone Rush Attempts but averaged an abysmal 1.7 yards per attempt, ranked 2nd worst among all RBs with a red zone attempt percentage over 50%.
Stevenson's lack of red zone efficiency signaled the Patriots' need for a stronger between-the-tackles rusher.
Elliott finished 8th in red zone attempts (39) with 2.8 yards per attempt while Stevenson finished 20th in red zone attempts (32) with 1.7 yards per attempt.
Elliott converted 12 of those 39 carries for touchdowns leading to a 30.7% conversion percentage. Stevenson finished the season with a 9.3% conversion percentage.
On paper, it appears Elliott will do most of his damage this season in the red zone while Stevenson should handle a majority of the touches between the 20s.
Managers who believed in Stevenson should not lose faith, the addition of a veteran thumper like Elliott is nothing more than a depth acquisition.
Wide Receiver
JuJu Smith-Schuster will serve as the WR1 replacement and “big-bodied” slot wide receiver in lieu of long-time Patriots wideout Jakobi Meyers, who recently inked a deal with the Raiders.
Smith-Schuster acted as the Chiefs' top wideout last season, albeit a long distant number two behind superstar tight end Travis Kelce.
Smith-Schuster led all Chiefs wideouts with 78 receptions for 933 receiving yards and three touchdowns as the WR35 in PPG.
There is significant context needed for Smith-Schuster’s relatively disappointing rollercoaster of a season. He finished no higher than WR35 in the first five weeks as the newcomer to the Chiefs' offense adapted to Andy Reid’s complex offensive philosophies.
Starting Week 6, Smith-Schuster produced three consecutive top-8 positional finishes as the WR7 (22.3), WR4 (25.4), and WR8 (18.8) before suffering a brutal concussion in Week 10.
He played fewer than 40.0% of the offensive snaps in Week 10 as well as fewer than 40.0% of the offensive snaps in Week 12 as he continued to recover.
In Smith-Schuster’s “healthy” games he averaged 12.4 PPG (WR30), jumping up from his season-long average of 11.6 (WR36).
Currently being drafted as the WR54 overall is far too low for the Patriots' number one receiver even when considering his career regression.
Davante Parker and Tyquan Thornton represent the Patriots' only real threats as target competition for Smith-Schuster.
The remaining members of the depth chart are made up of Day 3/Undrafted rookies and free agents.
Tight End
The last time that Bill O’Brien was the offensive coordinator of the Patriots the leading target earners were Wes Welker out of the slot (173 TGT) and not one, but two, tight ends in Rob Gronkowski (124 TGT) and Aaron Hernandez (113 TGT).
Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki both have upside as late-round selections at their current cost.
Henry is more proven within the Patriots offense but Gesicki’s athletic intangibles are otherworldly, boasting 95th percentile athletic scores in every category.
Henry may be the familiar face but Gesicki has been much more productive as a fantasy asset in recent memory despite a wildly unproductive 2022 season.
Gesicki has reached heights that Henry has not touched over the past three seasons.
In 2021, the former Dolphins tight end posted 73 receptions (TE5) on 111 targets (TE4) with a target share of 18.6% (TE9) on an aDOT of 9.1 yards (TE6). Gesicki ran 485 routes (TE3), 412 of which came as a slot receiver (TE1 in Slot Routes), averaging 1.27 yards per team pass attempt (TE6) with 10.6 PPG (TE8).
Conversely, Henry has shown incredible upside as a mid-range TE1 during his stint with the Chargers and posted four TE1 finishes just last season despite an incredibly mediocre offense.
The two-headed dragon will be nearly impossible to manage on a week-to-week basis but both Henry and Gesicki have viable value as late-round tight ends for those punting the position in the early portions of their drafts.
Dynasty Sleepers and Stashes
Rookie wide receiver Demario Douglas runs a 4.4s 40-yard dash with a 96th percentile burst score.
He has only two seasons as a starting receiver under his belt after redshirting his freshman season and serving primarily as a punt returner in which he received All-American honors.
Douglas compiled decent numbers at Liberty, posting 701 yards on 52 receptions for an average of 13.5 receptions with six touchdowns followed up by 993 yards on 79 receptions for an average of 12.6 yards per reception and another six touchdowns in his two seasons as a starter with the mid-major.
Douglas is receiving an immense amount of camp hype and praise on a team that is desperate for wide receiver help and historically famous for developing undersized, late-round wide receivers from small school football programs.
Fellow rookie wide receiver Kayshon Boutte has one of the single-greatest true-freshman analytical breakouts in history, posting 14 receptions for 303 yards and three touchdowns while blanketed by Patrick Surtain II and Trevon Diggs.
Injury and character concerns led to major regression following Boutte’s stunning finish to his freshman year.
The talent that led to Boutte’s incredible production is still buried somewhere deep within and if anyone can bring the genie out of its lamp it is Bill Belichick and the Patriot Way.
Lastly, we have Malik Cunningham as a taxi-squad candidate.
Cunningham is an uber-athletic dual-threat quarterback but an incredibly raw processor who struggled to meet his potential at Louisville, regressing to just 1562 passing yards in his final season.
He averaged more than 500 rushing yards per season across his tenure with the program, including a 1031-yard rushing season in 2021 where he also set career highs with 2941 passing yards.
If Jones gets injured as the starting quarterback, Cunningham could beat out Bailey Zappe as the first one off the bench.
Full Episode
BUFFALO BILLS
Offensive Outlook
Sean McDermott enters his 20th season as an NFL coach, marking his seventh season as the Bills head coach.
McDermott compiled five playoff appearances in his first six seasons, methodically transforming the culture of a franchise that had not experienced a postseason berth since 1999.
McDermott is ranked 1st in team history in win percentage and ranked third in franchise history in wins behind Marv Levy (123) and Lou Saban (70).
From 2020-22, the Bills captured three consecutive AFC East division titles for the first time since 1988-91.
Offensive Coordinator Ken Dorsey joined the Bills in 2019 as the team’s quarterback coach and offensive quality control coach.
Dorsey and company are greatly praised and accredited for developing star franchise quarterback Josh Allen after the former Wisconsin product was largely seen as a low-potential developmental project.
In 2021, Dorsey was promoted to passing game coordinator to go along with his QB coach role, helping Josh Allen record a 149.0 QB rating in the playoffs, which marked the highest all-time among QBs with at least 50 att. in a postseason.
In 2022, following the departure of former OC Brian Daboll, Dorsey was named the team’s offensive coordinator and will now serve in his second season in the role.
The Bills were dominant during the 2022 regular season, posting a 13-3 Record (1st in AFC East), ranking 3rd in Points Per Game (27.7) with a 14th-ranked Pass Percentage (57.2%) and 22nd-ranked Rush Percentage (42.8%).
Notable Offensive Additions: WR Deonte Harty, RB Damien Harris, RB Latavius Murray, RB Darrynton Evans, WR Andy Isabella, OG Connor McGovern, Rookie TE Dalton Kincaid.
Notable Offensive Subtractions: RB Devin Singletary, WR Isaiah McKenzie, QB Case Keenum.
Quarterback
Josh Allen has put up three consecutive seasons with over 400.0 fantasy points, including back-to-back QB1 campaigns in 2020 and 2021 and a QB3 season in 2023.
Allen is truly elite in both rushing and passing, ranking 2nd amongst all quarterbacks in rushing yards and 7th amongst all quarterbacks in passing yards last season.
Currently being drafted as the QB3 in 2023, Allen has equal arguments to be selected as the first quarterback in fantasy leagues.
Unfortunately, the rising tide of quarterback ADPs places Allen in the 2nd round of players, hamstringing team builds that elect to choose a quarterback early.
Running Back
James Cooks is reportedly the unquestioned top running back at Bills training camp and is beginning to see a sizable rise in his mid-round ADP.
Cook was beginning to show decent utility to close out the 2022 season and will now lead a Bills backfield that is desperate for a big-play threat at the running back position after departing ways with Devin Singletary.
Latavius Murray and Damien Harris are battling it out for the number two/bruiser role behind the undersized Cook with the older veteran reportedly having the edge.
Cook led all rookie running backs in 2022 with 5.8 Yards Per Carry, finishing 9th Overall in PPOxTD.
The second-year running back could break out as a highly utilized pass-catcher after posting an aDOT ranked 5th at the position with 30 targets despite a snap share below 25.0%.
Cook’s RB31 ADP mitigates most of the risk attached
Wide Receiver
Stefon Diggs (ADP: WR5/10 OVR) has the opportunity to produce a WR1 overall season in any given year.
In 2022 the Bills star wideout was on pace for exactly that before facing some unfortunate and unpredictable lulls during the season.
Diggs finished the year as the WR6 in PPG (18.9)/WR4 Overall.
He earned 155 Targets (WR5), on a 28.4% Target Share (WR10) with a 30.6% Target Rate (WR6). Diggs hauled in 110 Receptions (WR3) with a 4.9 True Target Value (WR3)
The route-technician extraordinaire compiled 1455 Receiving Yards (WR5), averaging 89.3 Receiving Yards Per Game (WR4) with 11 Total Touchdowns (WR2).
Diggs accumulated 1736 Air Yards (WR6), 23 Red Zone Targets (WR4), and 443 Yards After Catch (WR12) while averaging an absurd 2.87 Yards Per Route Run (WR3) on a total of 507 Routes.
He produced 2.51 Yards Per Team Pass Attempt (WR6), 0.63 Fantasy Points Per Route (WR4), and 2.07 Fantasy Points Per Target (WR9) with Pro Bowl and All-Pro honors.
One of the most successful separators in NFL history, Diggs boasted a 99th percentile Reception Perception profile in 2022 when comparing his success rates vs. man, press, and zone coverage.
Managers may be left with a sour taste in their mouths from last season as Diggs registered 4.6 and 4.6 PPR Points in back-to-back games during the fantasy playoffs.
Diggs put up 8 top-10 performances in 2022, including WR1 and WR2 overall outings, with only four weeks outside of the top 36 wide receivers.
It is entirely unfortunate that all four of those weeks came at the end of the 2022 fantasy football campaign but outlier performances are entirely unpredictable and non-correlative from year to year.
If the question is whether or not to draft Diggs at WR5/10 Overall, the answer will always be yes. 100% of the time.
Gabe Davis has never been a fantasy target of the Broto team but that stance has always applied more to the adage of “Don’t hate the player, hate the ADP.”
In 2022 Davis’ horde of relentless truthers pushed his cost well above the suggested range of outcomes.
Leading into 2022 Davis had put up back-to-back seasons with a target share of 10.9% and PPG Finishes of WR68 and WR60 during his first two years in the league.
A stunning playoff performance against the Chiefs caused a tsunami of hype for Davis entering drafts last season, pushing his prices as high as a low-end WR2.
The hype has cooled down considerably and so has the cost of investment.
Davis is now going off the boards as the WR41/101st player overall.
Although he didn’t live up to the impossible expectations put forth by the fantasy community, Davis did have a positive third season, progressing in all efficiency categories with career highs in Targets (92), Receptions (48), Receiving Yards (836), Yards Per Reception (17.4), Air Yards (1395), Receiving Touchdowns (7) and PPG at 11.4 (WR36).
He posted an 18.2% target share, up nearly eight percentage points from his previous career averages, doing so on an aDOT of 15.2 yards (WR6) with 24 deep targets (WR12).
The Bills did very little to address their depth at wide receiver, bringing in rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid to supplant some routes in the slot, leaving Davis and Diggs to dominate above 90.0% of the snaps on the outside.
Davis is unlikely to ever return elite WR2 numbers as a true complementary 1(B) alongside Diggs but he can certainly outperform his current ADP of WR41 in PPG.
Tight End
Dalton Kincaid is being pushed up draft boards with an expectation that the rookie tight end can finally break the long lineage of irrelevant year-one performances at the position.
Kincaid is being drafted as high as the TE11 overall in redraft leagues, a lofty ceiling that not even Kyle Pitts could surpass as a rookie despite putting up over 1,000 yards.
There has been a litany of tight end prospects with much better athletic metrics and collegiate production than Kincaid, all of whom failed to produce league-winning numbers in year one.
Kyle Pitts, T.J. Hockenson, Noah Fant, Eric Ebron, Evan Engram, Vernon Davis, David Njoku, Hayden Hurst. The list of tight ends that smash Kincaid’s prospect profile yet failed to produce as a rookie is endlessly extensive.
Dawson Knox is still in-house and has back-to-back seasons as a top-15 (or higher) TE in PPG.
Knox surprisingly tested as the better athlete when compared to Kincaid and recently secured a lucrative contract extension that makes him one of the top-10 highest-paid tight ends in the NFL.
If Kincaid is expected to play primarily in the slot, his utility on every down will undeniably be limited whereas the veteran Knox has a high probability of maintaining a useful role as the team’s true TE1.
Dynasty Sleepers and Stashes
Drafting rookie tight ends at their inflated year-one value is somewhat of a backhanded strategy unless you're investing in players like Kyle Pitts who possesses astronomical value insulation.
The most intriguing part of the near-inevitable value decline that ALL rookie tight ends face in Dynasty leagues following their inaugural season is that year one production has historically proven to have little effect on the player’s career range of outcomes.
It is almost always true that you will be able to acquire said rookie mid-season after managers panic on predictive low-end production, giving you the same asset at a lower cost of investment despite near-identical upside projections.
Only two tight ends in NFL History have secured more than 1,000 yards in their rookie season.
Only one tight end in the past 50 seasons has secured more than 1,000 yards in their rookie season.
Only three tight ends in NFL history have secured more than 880 yards in their rookie season.
Only three tight ends in the past 25 seasons have secured more than 700 yards in their rookie season.
The outcome of what is largely considered the greatest tight end rookie season from the greatest tight end prospect of all time was a whopping 10.4 PPG as the TE11.
Expecting Dalton Kincaid to miraculously rewrite history at the most difficult and nuanced position to produce consistent numbers in all of football is ridiculous especially considering he didn't secure more than 40 receptions and 550 yards until his age-23 season at Utah and possesses just slightly above average athleticism.
With that said Kincaid did have a phenomenal final-season breakout, leading the team in receptions (70), targets (96), target share (21.7), and receiving touchdowns (8), marking his second consecutive season as the team leader in receiving touchdowns.
He also averaged 12.9 yards per reception with an absurdly efficient catch rate of 79.8%.
There is warranted optimism here but his current cost is likely to diminish while his range of outcomes remains sky-high.
Consensus deemed Kincaid valuable enough to be drafted anywhere from the rookie 1.07 to 1.10 in Dynasty leagues based on the upside of his draft capital and profile. He is currently being valued as high as the TE5 overall on Keep Trade Cut.
Do not allow the panic of a largely inconsequential rookie season to deter you from your investment.
Full Episode
MIAMI DOLPHINS
Offensive Outlook
Mike McDaniel is in his 17th Season in the NFL despite being just 40 years old.
McDaniel enters his second season with the Dolphins as their head coach after gaining wide recognition as an offensive mastermind with the 49ers.
McDaniels also serves as the lead play-caller and play-designer for the team.
In 2022 McDaniel helped the Dolphins offense finish in the top 10 for the first time since 1995.
Miami averaged 364.5 yards per game, which ranked sixth in the league, and 6.14 yards per play, which was second.
Frank Smith’s services as the Dolphins' offensive coordinator are more in title than practicality as McDaniel controls nearly all offensive decisions.
Smith is in his second year as the Dolphins OC, joining the team with McDaniel in 2022.
The 2023 season marks the 20th year of professional coaching experience for Smith, including 14 at the NFL level and six in the collegiate ranks.
In 2022 the Dolphins finished with a 9-8 Record (2nd AFC East), 11th Ranked Points Per Game (23.8), 10th Ranked Pass Percentage (60.0%), and 26th Ranked Run Percentage (40.0%).
Notable: QB Mike White, WR Braxton Berrios, Rookie RB De’Von Achane, Rookie TE Elijah Higgins.
Notable Offensive Subtractions: TE Mike Gesicki.
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa is flying deep under the radar as a league-winning quarterback candidate. ADP: QB11/90th Overall.
In 2022 Tua averaged 18.4 PPG (QB9) and ranked as the QB5 in True Throw Value despite playing and competing in not one, not two, but three games where he was dealing with concussion symptoms finishing with 11.4, 3.4, and 15.9 points in those outings.
Before Tua suffered his first concussion, only one quarterback in the NFL was averaging more Yards Per Game (Patrick Mahomes) while Tua led all quarterbacks in Completion Percentage, Yards Per Attempt, and Fantasy Points Per Attempt up until his injury.
Somehow, Tua still managed to finish the season with 3548 Passing Yards (12), with 25 Passing Touchdowns (QB8) despite playing in only 10 (!!!) healthy games.
Although his efficiency predictably regressed from the sizeable gap he had on the competition to begin the season, Tua still finished the season ranked 1st in Yards Per Attempt (8.9), 3rd in Air Yards Per Attempt (9.3), 8th in Fantasy Points Per Attempt (0.57), 1st in Deep Ball Completion Percentage (50.0%), 7th in pressured completion percentage (49.2%) with the 4th-most pressures of quarterback, 2nd in red zone completion percentage (65.3%), 3rd in QBR, and 3rd in EPA.
Tua’s only concern about elite production is his health. All indicators point towards incredible upside in one of the league’s fastest offenses if the Dolphins franchise quarterback can remain upright and healthy for 17 games.
Wide Receiver
The Dolphins funnel targets between Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle with the star wideouts acquiring more than 50.0% of the team’s pass opportunities in 2022.
Hill was the model of consistency as the WR1 in 2022, posting just three finishes outside of the top 24 wide receivers in fantasy.
The veteran speedster earned an absurd 31.4% target share ranking second among all wideouts.
Hill is rightfully being selected as the WR3 in redraft leagues this season and could once again return league-winning upside as a top-3 positional asset in PPG.
Jaylen Waddle may not be the top wideout on the Dolphins but he has posted back-to-back seasons as a top 15 wide receiver in fantasy.
As a rookie Waddle finished with 15.4 PPG (WR15), matching that total in his second season with 15.3 PPG (WR12) despite the addition of Tyreek Hill and the disintegration of an injured Tua Tagovailoa.
The knock against Waddle is his boom-or-bust profile as he posted eight games outside of the top-24 wide receivers in 2022 including six games outside of the top-36 wideouts in weekly scoring.
Running Back
Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson, and undersized rookie De’Von Achane make up the Dolphins running back depth chart.
Wilson is the consensus favorite at Broto to lead the Dolphins backfield in rush attempts with Mostert handling a secondary rushing role and Achane falling behind both veterans in terms of opportunities.
Ironically, the three backs have ADPs that suggest the polar opposite with the rookie leading the pack.
Achane - ADP: RB38
Mostert - ADP: RB47
Wilson - ADP: RB53
Achane has legitimate Olympic-level sprinter speed, posting the fastest 40-yard dash of anyone in the 2023 NFL combine. He also measures in at just 5’8” and 192 lbs, placing him in an extreme outlier bucket when viewing his rookie projections. It is incredibly rare for a player of Achane’s size to be immediately useful as a three-down running back.
McDaniel hand-selected Mostert and Wilson as primary targets when he was first named head coach. Each player shares a familiar understanding of the coach's offensive system from time shared with the 49ers and has had immense success in said system.
Mostert will be 31 once the season commences and has been plagued with injuries in every season of his NFL career.
Conversely, Wilson is the younger back at just 27 years old and has been consistently productive whenever handed a leading role in McDaniel’s offense.
Wilson should be stashed as the cheapest of the three with all running backs sharing equal upside.
Tight End
As it currently stands, Durham Smythe is listed as the starting tight end for the Dolphins, a position that accounted for just 47 of the team's 368 total receptions.
Smythe himself accounted for 15 of those receptions, garnering 129 yards and one touchdown in 16 games played.
That leaves Tyler Kroft, and Eric Saubert as the depth pieces, two players who have combined for 58 total receptions in a combined 69 career games played between the two of them.
Dynasty Sleepers and Stashes
Rookie tight end Elijah Higgins is essentially free in all leagues, going undrafted in rookie drafts and rostered in under 50.0% of Dynasty leagues across both MFL and Sleeper platforms.
Higgins has virtually no experience at tight end whatsoever, making a positional designation change from wide receiver to tight end before the 2023 NFL Draft.
He is 6’4” and weighed in at 235 lbs during the 2023 NFL Combine in which he wowed scouts with a 4.54s 40-yard dash, 1.56s 10-yard split, 35” vertical leap, 10’ 6” broad jump and 7.01s 3-cone giving the former Stanford prospect speed and burst scores above the 85th percentile.
In an offense predicated on speed and open space, Higgins profiles as the best fit for the Dolphins if he can refine his skills as an in-line blocker.
Expecting magic in year one from the 6th-round selection is foolish so stash this kid for a potential upside swing later down the line.
Full Episode
NEW YORK JETS
Offensive Outlook
Robert Saleh brings 18 years of NFL experience to the table, his 3rd year as the Jets head coach.
This past season, Saleh oversaw a team that increased their total by three wins despite using three different starting quarterbacks.
The Jets improved in nearly every offensive category after finishing last in the league in total defense in 2021, Saleh led a defensive unit that finished fourth overall in 2022.
His defenses have now ranked in the top five in three of the last four seasons, including his stint with the 49ers.
Saleh also became one of just five coaches in NFL history to finish in the top five in team defense only one season after ranking 32nd.
Nathaniel Hackett enters his first year with the New York Jets after a failed experiment as the Broncos head coach in 2022.
Hackett brings 15 years of NFL coaching experience to the Jets, serving as the Green Bay Packers offensive Coordinator from 2019 through 2021, helping to reignite the fire that led to Aaron Rodgers' back-to-back MVP seasons in 2020 and 2021.
In 2022 the Jets finished with a 7-10 Record (4th AFC East), ranking 29th in Points Per Game (17.4), 6th in Pass Percentage (60.8%), and 30th in Run Percentage (39.2%)
Notable Offensive Additions: QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Allen Lazard, RB Dalvin Cook, WR Mecole Hardman, WR Randall Cobb, Rookie RB Israel Abanikanda.
Notable Offensive Subtractions: WR Elijah Moore, WR Corey Davis, RB James Robinson, QB Mike White.
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers faced a swift and unpredictable decline in his last season as a member of the Packers.
In 2022, the season following back-to-back MVP wins, Rodgers posted career lows in passing yards, passing touchdowns, and points per game.
The only seasons in which he had lower total stats in his career were the three in which he sat behind Brett Favre and the 2013 and 2017 seasons where he played just 9 and 7 games.
Rodgers had his lowest YPA since 2015 during the 2022 season, ranking 24th in completion percentage (64.6%).
He averaged just 14.8 PPG as the QB21 despite a True Throw Value ranked 11th.
Now that the negatives are out of the way… Expect Rodgers to see positive regression in his first season with New York despite being nearly 39 years old.
Rodgers played much of the 2022 season with a significant injury to his throwing hand and still finished 10th in total attempts, 2nd in deep ball attempts, and 9th in red zone attempts while throwing for 3695 passing yards (QB11), and 26 passing touchdowns (QB7).
Reuniting with Nathaniel Hackett, who just so happens to be the OC of Rodgers' two most recent MVP seasons should help the future Hall of Famer return to elite quarterback status in 2023.
A familiar offense, with a good offensive line, elite top-end weapons, above average depth on the offense at nearly every position.
Everything is in place for Rodgers to vastly outperform his currently egregious ADP of QB15.
Wide Receiver
Garrett Wilson produced a historically elite season in his rookie year:
17 Games Played
83 Receptions (WR 6)
147 Targets (WR 16)
24.9% Target Share (WR21)
26.9% Target Rate (WR16)
1103 Receiving Yards (4 REC TD)
7.5 Yards Per Target (WR59)
13.3 Yards Per Reception (WR35)
1575 Air Yards (WR11)
30.4% Air Yards Share (WR25)
10.7 Yard aDOT (WR51)
2.02 Yards Per Route Run (WR29)
1.76 Yards Per Team Pass Attempt (WR26)
12.7 PPR PPG (WR30)
Wilson took a horrendously low True Target Value of WR50 and aDOT of WR51 and still managed 1103 receiving yards (WR13) and 30th in PPG PPR (12.7).
The only rookies since 1992 to post over 140 targets in their inaugural season are Jaylen Waddle, Anquan Boldin, Kelvin Benjamin, Terry Glenn, and Garrett Wilson.
Wilson’s ADP is certainly costly as he resides as the WR6/16th Overall. His range of outcomes justifies the hype but he will likely not finish as a top-3 positional asset in PPG.
Allen Lazard could be a draft steal as a late-round wide receiver with a low-end WR2 upside.
Mecole Hardman has some appeal in Best Ball leagues for potential boom performances.
Running Back
Breece Hall tore his ACL in Week 7 of the 2022 season, leaving only 10 months for recovery until opening day 2023.
Historically, running backs face limitations in movement and production in their first year removed from ACL surgery, making a full recovery late into the season or even the following year.
The signing of veteran running back Dalvin Cook has suppressed Hall’s ADP, allowing managers to mitigate some of the risks at RB15.
Hall could produce league-winning numbers when he returns to form this season but will likely need several weeks to get back to speed.
Hall ranked first overall in yards per touch as a rookie, finishing outside of the top 15 running backs in scoring only once.
Former Vikings running back Dalvin Cook inked a one-year deal with the Jets and is expected to handle the bulk of the backfield work while Hall recovers.
Cook decreased his overall efficiency in nearly every category in 2022 when compared to his career norms but still managed a respectable season, finishing as the RB14 in PPG.
Nathaniel Hackett has utilized multiple running backs in each iteration of his offense, lending the possibility that both Hall and Cook could have useful production when both are healthy.
When Hackett was last the offensive coordinator of the Packers, Aaron Jones (221) and A.J. Dillon (220) handled nearly identical rushing opportunities.
Hall is a superstar in the making. Managers just need to be patient on his return to full health.
Tight End
Tyler Conklin put up nearly identical numbers to his 2021 season in 2022.
He recorded 87 targets in 17 games both of the past two seasons, managing 61 receptions in 2021, and 58 receptions in 2022.
His slight reception edge allowed him to accrue 43 more yards in 2021 than in 2022 as he averaged 9.6 YPR in each season with three touchdowns in both seasons as well.
Conklin finished 2021 averaging 8.1 PPG as the TE18 with three top-10 weekly finishes, four top-12 weekly finishes, and three top 6 weekly finishes including a TE2 overall performance of 20.0 points.
Conklin ended 2022 averaging 7.7 PPG as the TE21 with three top-10 weekly finishes, four top-12 weekly finishes, and three top-6 weekly finishes including a TE1 overall performance of 25.9 points.
Rodgers has famously brought fantasy relevance to the likes of replacement-level scrubs like Robert Tonyan and although the Jets have an extremely deep core of wide receivers there is a wide-open path to targets after Garrett Wilson eats the lion’s share.
You're certainly not going out of your way to draft Tyler Conklin this season but I promise you'll go out of your way to stream him at some point.
Dynasty Sleepers and Stashes
Israel Abanikanda measures in at 5’ 10”/220lbs/31.0 BMI, running a 4.45s 40-yard dash with an 82nd percentile weight-adjusted speed score. He also boasts a 97th percentile burst score accredited to his 41” vertical and 128” broad jump.
Abanikanda recorded a 97th percentile dominator rating in his best season which came in his junior year at only 19 years old where he accumulated 1431 yards on 231 attempts for 5.98 yards per carry with 21 total touchdowns, adding 12 receptions for 146 yards across 11 games played for Pitt.
Still, a raw athlete with only one season of production caused Abanikanda to fall to Round 5 where the Jets finally took a shot on the promising young running back.
Abanikanda’s lack of volume in college leaves him with incredibly fresh legs and a clean bill of health while his youth of 20 years old gives the Jets plenty of time and a long leash to develop the rookie.
Dalvin Cook’s one-year contract should not scare managers off of investing in the Jets' newest rookie as a dynasty stash as he was always one injury away from rookie relevance to begin with.
If Cook proves to be ineffective or goes down early in the season and Breece Hall still isn't 100%, Abanikanda could run away with more than a backup gig after everyone is healthy.
Full Episode
Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
The Fantasy Football by Broto app is now live on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store! Download it today for a start sit tool, player cards, statistics, usage, rankings, interactive tools, coaching tendencies, and much, much more. FREE for a limited time.
Check out patreon.com/Brotofantasy to access extra episodes, join our community, win prizes, and help keep the app free.
By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.