Welcome to the Sophomore Bump or Slump? Series! Over the next few days, we will look back at the 2022 rookie class to dissect their rookie years and take a look towards their sophomore seasons! We kicked it off with Running Backs and Quarterbacks and are now diving into Tight Ends.
Tight End is notoriously shallow with only three or four truly elite options every year. If you are not a big red zone threat or earning large amounts of targets, you are a replaceable asset at the position. Let’s see how the sophomore Tight Ends fare heading into this season.
Daniel Bellinger - New York Giants
Fantasy Grade: 7.2/100
TE1 Games: 2
It seems like everything has gone wrong for Daniel Bellinger. The 4th round rookie was starting to gain a real role in the Giants offense before missing four games with an eye injury. He returned in Week 13 and averaged just 3.8 targets per game through his last five games of the season. His measly 6.7% target share seems especially small when you remember that the Giants were dealing with multiple injuries at WR. Richie James was the only WR on the team to play all 17 games.
Like most of New York’s receivers, Bellinger did not play a full season either, though, and in the 10 games where he played at least 50% of offensive snaps, he averaged a more respectable 11.26% target share.
Although Bellinger had an outstanding 85.7% catch rate and a 2.9% drop rate, he was only targeted 35 times in 12 games and 11 starts. The rookie TE also had a 4.0 aDOT - 161st amongst qualified players per Pro Football Reference - and his 4.8 average yards after the catch did not stack up to the top fantasy TEs. His aDOT is concerning but expected for a rookie at the position. Running backs and tight ends - even those who are successful receivers - are on the lower end of the depth of target spectrum. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Daniel Jones had the lowest aDOT among all QBs in 2022, so this issue could extend beyond Bellinger.
There may still be massive question marks regarding who Daniel Jones’ top WR will be but it’s unlikely that the confusion will lead Brian Daboll to shift his offensive focus. In his tenure as Offensive Coordinator with the Buffalo Bills, Daboll’s offense ran 11 personnel 70% of the time in each of his 4 seasons, ranking in the top-10 in usage of that package each time. With Darren Waller standing head and shoulders above the rest of the receivers, Bellinger’s 2023 campaign will be one for learning and that may be best for him. Looking at Daboll’s offense with the Bills, it’s realistic to assume that a lone featured TE can have multiple boom weeks like Dawson Knox had as a top-3 red zone target for Buffalo. Bellinger is more athletic than Knox by RAS, though, and had a blazing 1.52 second 10-yard split. That registered as a 9.97/10 in RAS. At the high end of athleticism and speed, Bellinger is a TE you absolutely take a shot on in dynasty. A lack of patience has caused him to drop to TE31 on KeepTradeCut. He may not be worth rostering this year but if you’ve got the roster space ,he’s worth a stash in dynasty. Just understand you’re going to be waiting out Darren Waller.
Greg Dulcich - Denver Broncos
Fantasy Grade: 29.5/100
TE1 Games: 6
Greg Dulcich was the best rookie TE for fantasy football, finishing with more TE1 games and yards per game than the rest of the class.
Competition-wise, Dulcich is going to dominate. Albert Okwuegbunam and Chris Manhertz round out the position but neither have seen either single-game or season-long success anywhere near what Dulcich has achieved despite much more combined time in the league.
A new regime under former Saints HC and offensive mastermind Sean Payton begins in 2023, which opens the opportunity for Greg Dulcich to play a significant role in the offense, despite being less athletic than fellow young TE, Albert O. Given the immediate success Dulcich found, it is reasonable to expect him to continue to dominate the TE receiving work.
Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy recently injured his hamstring and is expected to miss several weeks, WR Tim Patrick was recently carted off with a non-contact injury and WR K.J. Hamler has been waived and put on the NFI (non-football illness) designation after being diagnosed with a heart condition. The timing of these could not be worse and we hope all three are able to recover quickly. At the moment, either Marquez Callaway or rookie Marvin Mims Jr. would need step into the WR2 role opposite Courtland Sutton, WR3 once Jeudy returns. Even if the receiving room was more crowded, this doesn’t hurt Dulcich much. It may temporarily raise his dynasty value and even push him up in ADP, but both would be vast overreactions. Sean Payton has historically run 11 personnel at a much lower rate than the rest of the league, opting for a mixture of packages that usually only leave 2 WRs on the field at a time. This is likely to continue with Payton in Denver and give Dulcich that much less competition at any given time. Trade calculators are valuing Dulcich similarly to Chigoziem Okonkwo and I would be looking to flip Chig and a late rookie pick for Dulcich.
Chigoziem Okonkwo - Tennessee Titans
Fantasy Grade: 14.8/100
TE1 Games: 4
YACOE/Rec: 2.6 (2nd)
Hate him or love him, “Chig” is currently being drafted as a borderline TE1 based on current Underdog ADP. Underdog may run a best ball format (you don’t set lineups, your best team possible will automatically start every week) but it is often a good source of early ADP because people are always investing their money so stakes are high and thus decisions are more well informed. As the TE13 just behind Greg Dulcich and Dalton Kincaid, it’s evident that fantasy managers are high on the Titans sophomore.
Chig finished as a TE1 in half-PPR four times last season but often failed to record even a single point several times. This should be expected given team passing tendencies, his age and his rawness at the position but the concerns don’t end there. Okonkwo’s best span - both in terms of fantasy points and targets - coincided with a late stretch of games where rookie WR Treylon Burks played limited snaps or missed games entirely.
DeAndre Hopkins’ signing with the team may seem like the nail in the coffin for Okonkwo but it may work to his benefit in the short-term. Passing games benefit from adding talented receiving options. Last year the team leader in targets, receptions, and receiving yards was Robert Woods. Woods only managed to convert his 91 targets into 53 receptions for 527 yards and 2 TDs despite playing all 17 games. Nearly all of those marks were noticeably worse than his 2021 season where he only played 9 games and over 250 fewer snaps. Outside of the two rookie pass catchers, the rest of the receiving room was unfathomably bad, even by NFL standards. Even a below-average season by Hopkins will produce offensive results that shatter whatever sad excuse for an offense Tennesse propped up last year.
The best thing going for Okonkwo is that he was blazing fast at the combine but he’s undersized for the position and the rest of his athletic profile and college production is severely lacking. He’d be an outlier if he found high-end TE success anytime soon.
Optimistically, Okonkwo can be an inconsistent TE2 who sees an uptick in red zone opportunities but this passing game is still below average and Chig is not the elite talent that can produce consistent TE1 results. Let someone else pay up for him and find a pattern for when to start him.
Isaiah Likely - Baltimore Ravens
Fantasy Grade: 10.4/100
TE1 Games: 3
Isaiah Likely is the ultimate handcuff TE. There is no other player at the position set up for immediate and unquestionable success in the event of an injury to the starter. Mark Andrews has not missed many games in his career but you never know what will happen in any given week. Andrews exited Week 9’s match against Tampa Bay after only 10 snaps last season, which opened the door for Likely to finish as the TE2 that week, setting career-highs in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. He even caught his first career TD. Andrews was inactive the next week as well, and Likely managed to see 5 targets and caught another TD. That was his only reception for 24 receiving yards but he started that game and played 76% of snaps, still finishing as the TE9 that week.
Finally, in Week 18, the Ravens were guaranteed a playoff spot and rested many key starters including Andrews. Isaiah Likely once again got the start and crushed his best receiving marks as he hauled in 8 of his 13 targets for 103 yards. Even without a TD, he was the TE3 that week. Nearly every fantasy football season was over by that point but we got another glimpse of his unquestionable role as the TE1 on the team when Mark Andrews is out.
This will be a different offense in 2023. Todd Monken has succeeded Greg Roman as the team’s Offensive Coordinator. Monken has been praised for his time at Georgia, especially for his success utilizing pass-catching TEs. Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington flourished under him and we could see a return to more 2-TE sets, something that declined under Roman’s tenure as he put more RBs out on the field. Likely already has sky-high potential as a backup but injuries are not something we can predict so it would be ideal to also see him carve out his own role alongside Mark Andrews.
The asking price is high for what appears to be a backup but it’s hard to put a price on a player who could instantly be catapulted into a top-5 weekly TE role. Buy into the Todd Monken hype.
Cade Otton - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Fantasy Grade: 12.5/100
TE1 Games: 3
Perhaps the most forgotten of the top TEs in this class, Cade Otton led all Buccaneers TEs in targets and was only about a dozen away from finishing third in total team targets. Otton’s 65 targets were the 15th most by a rookie TE in NFL history. The Buccaneers didn’t add any real receiving threats through the draft or free agency which paves the way for a clear TE1 role for Cade Otton.
Unfortunately, Otton will still face an uphill climb towards fantasy relevance in the next few seasons. With a rebuilding Buccaneers team, scoring opportunities will be far and few in between and we can expect a significant drop in total team targets.
Tom Brady set a new NFL record by throwing a whopping 733 pass attempts, 103 of which were in the red zone (2nd most in 2022). That means that Otton’s impressive 65 targets only gave him an 8.9% target share for the year. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin continue to dominate target shares, and for good reason.
With a lack of combine data, impending drop in team targets and red zone appearances, and immense WR talent surrounding him, Otton is just not worth considering for 2023. Otton will be cheap to acquire in dynasty leagues but currently hasn’t shown us anything that makes him worth more than any of the countless other middling TEs that already clog your roster. He may only be worth stashing due to his youth and a current lack of TE competition in Tampa Bay. Fade Otton this year and reevaluate his role and the team’s direction at the end of the season.
Jelani Woods - Indianapolis Colts
Fantasy Grade: 2.6/100
TE1 Games: 3
10/10. That’s the Relative Athletic Score that Jelani Woods stunned the football world with last year. Not only is that score perfect but it is quite literally the best that a TE has had since 1987 - as far as RAS goes back.
Woods was seldom utilized as a pass-catcher in his three seasons at Oklahoma State but finally took off as a senior with Virginia, catching 44 passes for 598 yards and 8 TDs. Woods played QB in high school which probably presented a learning curve as he transitioned to TE. Standing at 6’7 and weighing over 250 pounds, though, he now presents himself as a nearly perfect model for the position.
The TE room may look crowded in Indianapolis but Woods may have already separated himself. Mo Alie-Cox has been with the team for 5 years now but has never exceeded 400 yards in a season. Kylen Granson took a step forward, tying Woods for the lead in TE targets with 40 in just his second season. He played 74 more snaps than Woods but had a lower aDOT and fewer red zone opportunities and didn’t end up converting his targets into as many fantasy points as Woods.
Woods is proving to be the best of the bunch in the TE room and it’s only a matter of time before he takes complete control of it. This is a new team in Indianapolis, though, and HC Shane Steichen and OC Jim Bob Cooter could change things. Along with a new coaching staff, the team will be led by rookie QB Anthony Richardson. Richardson broke out in his 3rd year at Florida and displayed excellent arm strength and insane dual-threat ability. Like his new teammate Jelani Woods, Richardson ranks first all-time at his position in RAS. Accuracy issues have been his biggest crux and reports of them will continue to crop up until we actually see him in action. With such an athletic dual-threat QB and a young offense with so many possibilities, there could be fireworks in Indy.
On the other hand, there are nearly as many reasons to expect a flop of a season. In what may be a run-heavy offense, Woods would rely on red zone usage to finish as a TE1 this year. In a dream scenario, Woods is used a lot like Mark Andrews in Baltimore and gets fed despite the rushing-focused attack but expecting Woods and Richardson to be like Andrews and Lamar Jackson is foolish. Woods has a massive range of outcomes this year but at TE32 in Underdog ADP and TE26 on KeepTradeCut you’re not paying a premium for a monster athlete who should cement himself as the team’s TE1.
Unlike someone like Daniel Bellinger who is another young freak athlete, Woods can see his value skyrocket if this offense pops. Bellinger won’t have that same opportunity just yet, even if Waller misses time.
Trey McBride - Arizona Cardinals
Fantasy Grade: 9.7/100
TE1 Games: 1
Trey McBride was not a disappointment by any stretch of the imagination. In fact, I saved the best for last.
It is awfully convenient that we were able to see McBride almost exclusively in the second half of the season without snap competition at TE after Zach Ertz went down in Week 10 and had surgery to repair his ACL and MCL.
With DeAndre Hopkins in Tennessee, Ertz recovering from an ACL tear at 32, and a year under McBride’s belt, he is in position for the biggest rise at TE this season.
Crowdsourced data is unreliable but looking at KeepTradeCut, McBride is valued nearly the same as Dalton Schultz and below Chigoziem Okonkwo. That's unreasonable and pretty insulting.
McBride is not as much a project as he is a waiting game. His role in this offense is going to expand quickly without Zach Ertz and his future is brighter than any other rookie TE in this class. It may be better to wait out 2022 and look forward to a much better 2023 but I won’t be taking that risk in too many leagues. I’d rather pay a small price and secure McBride now. While everyone is focused on the current elites and new great rookie class, McBride is a diamond that you need to set your sights on.
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By Themi Michalakis
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.