Sophomore Bump or Slump? Running Backs Pt. 2

Sophomore Bump or Slump? Running Backs Pt. 2

Dameon Pierce - Houston Texans 

Fantasy Grade: 70.8/100 

RB1 Games: 4 

PPG: 11.63 

287. That is the rushing attempt pace that Dameon Pierce was on before getting injured in Week 13. That number would have ranked 5th in the league last season, just behind Saquon Barkley and ahead of Najee Harris. With so much volume and no elite replacement coming in, is Pierce worth his RB19 ADP? 

Pierce’s total numbers may look fine for a rookie but not excellent for an upside pick. Even though his 72.2 rushing yards per game was the 8th highest in the league, he only averaged 11.63 fantasy points per game. As the RB21 in PPG, Pierce needs to do a lot more to truly pay off where he is being drafted. I don’t think this is a league-winning type of player with his current receiving workload - 3 targets per game - but Rex Burkhead and his 51 RB targets are gone. Devin Singletary has joined the team and hasn’t drawn fewer than 41 targets in a season in his time in the league despite Bills QB Josh Allen only averaging 5.4 RB targets per game in his career. Singletary has a history of usage that no other Texans backup RB can compare to.

With an OC change, things could continue to shake up in the RB room. Bobby Slowik joins the Texans after serving as a defensive assistant in Washington and then an offensive assistant in San Francisco - both times under current 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan. Should Slowik create his own version of the West Coast offense that Shanahan has used, it could be great for Pierce’s efficiency and upside but not incredible for his bellcow role. It’s possible that we see a lot of 21 personnel with Pierce giving up a chunk of time to former Buffalo Bills RB Devin Singletary. Neither Pierce nor Singletary boast incredible speed scores or combine results which makes me believe even more that the Shanahan style of offense would be best for this team to open holes and give the two backs more opportunity to do what they do best and create modest gains with quick cuts and overall good footwork. 

Expect to see a lot more pre-snap motion than usual under Slowik, not only to help get the blocks he needs but to help rookie QB C.J. Stroud see what kind of defense he’s about to deal with. Even with a rookie QB and some questionable receiving options, it’s entirely possible that Pierce scores a lot more. His five TDs on 34 red zone opportunities can be improved upon with both a more efficient offense and some luck. Expect him to continue to dominate red zone work, especially near the goal line. 

Dameon Pierce is a player I was quite low on in 2022. I didn’t draft him in any of my mocks or real leagues and I really had no intention of drafting him barring a monumental fall. His hype train was out of control, but that’s changing. I must note that much of my newfound love for Pierce comes from a deep dive on him after reading Jakob Sanderson’s RB evaluations. Jakob does excellent work and I could not write this out without giving him a much deserved shoutout. Even though RB19 sounds quite high, rounds 5 and 6 only offer a handful of must-drafts for me. 

Jahan Dotson is one of my favorite WR3/4s to draft and I am quite high on Miles Sanders and even Alexander Mattison if you insist on a high volume RB option. Kyle Pitts and Trevor Lawrence can also be great for your team, but if I’m deciding between Marquise Brown, George Pickens, Cam Akers, or Dameon Pierce then I will almost always go with Pierce. Despite my rise in love for Pierce, I am not particularly high on him in dynasty. I’d be looking to trade Pierce for a 1st round pick. He doesn’t have enough of a ceiling to warrant holding or buying much of him but can be a safe, consistent player this season who can hit some more upside if this OC change works out. 

James Cook - Buffalo Bills 

Fantasy Grade: 19.0/100 

RB1 Games: 1 

PPG: 5.95 

The Buffalo Bills selected James Cook, brother of Dalvin Cook, in the 2nd round of the 2022 draft, likely as a replacement for Devin Singletary. Singletary has been the team’s leading rusher since being drafted in 2019 and has out-carried nearly all Bills in that span (minus a much less efficient, much older Frank Gore). Singletary, as noted above, is now with the Texans. 

A mere 5.95 half-PPR PPG as a rookie for Cook does not stand out by any means but the volume just wasn’t there. James Cook’s 89 attempts accounted for just about 30% of RB rushes. Cook was actually quite efficient with these touches too. His 5.7 YPC would have ranked 5th in the league and his 0.646 PPOxTD was tied with Austin Ekeler for 8th in the league among backs with at least 75 opportunities. His seven big plays were 19th in the league as well, despite a tiny workload. With only 89 carries it’s unlikely that efficiency like this can continue. Cook also benefited from only seeing 6.1 defenders in the box, on average. The Bills have one of the strongest passing attacks in the game which forces teams to defend the pass more often, opening up the running game to thrive, despite limited work.

Josh Allen has only averaged 5.4 targets to RBs in his career but that number grew to 6.9 in 2022. One could view this as an outlier but there’s more going on. With former OC Brian Daboll taking over head coaching duties with the New York Giants, QBs coach Ken Dorsey was tasked with filling his position. If this was part of a larger offensive mindset change, then Cook could see more targets this season.

With Devin Singletary gone, former Patriots RB Damien Harris joins the Bills backfield. Harris has never become a full-time starter and he won’t be running away with the starting job, however, he should still see his fair share of touches. Buffalo has not shied away from using multiple RBs at the same time, while Josh Allen takes off plenty of times too. While red zone opportunities should be plentiful, Cook may find it hard to take over that workload completely. Last season, Allen and Singletary took all 18 goal-line carries, none for Cook.

Things won’t stay as bad as in 2022. Cook started to see an uptick in snaps and opportunities in the second half of the season but he was still not quite good enough to earn a massive role. That’s fine for a rookie competing with the team’s annual leading rusher.

With a recent drop to RB24, Cook is becoming palatable again. He’s one of those players who you start to fall in love with the more you look into him, especially if he’s your team’s RB3. It’s eye popping that players like Alvin Kamara or D’Andre Swift are still being drafted after him though. Cook is largely benefiting from an elite passing game and positive game-script but he does possess qualities to show out and post multiple RB2 finishes. Ken Dorsey’s offense has aided this run game and should continue to keep RB target numbers a bit higher than under Daboll. For a quick and dirty comparison, Devin Singletary carried the ball 177 times and drew 52 targets, finishing as the half-PPR RB34 in PPG. Note that this includes the postponed and then canceled Week 17 game against the Bengals which only had a few snaps played. Even removing that game only boosts him up a spot, though. Singletary finished as the half-PPR RB34 in PPG last season. Let’s not forget that Singletary, despite NFL success, was not nearly as good a prospect and didn’t boast much athleticism. Cook beats him as a prospect in nearly every way. Singletary’s college counting stats and efficiency also need to be taken with a grain of salt. It’s a lot easier to dominate at FAU in the AAC than it is to beat out multiple NFL-level talents at Georgia in the SEC. 

Even if Ken Dorsey can continue to improve this run game, volume is still a massive issue both with Josh Allen rushing - especially on the goal line - and Damien Harris ready to take plenty of work himself. If Cook slips into the 7th or 8th I’m willing to pull the trigger but like many RBs in this area, there are just so many nicer options at other positions and I like Alvin Kamara or D’Andre Swift about a round later. Cook is someone I’d be looking to sell in dynasty. If I’m contending, I’d be better off with someone like Joe Mixon, Miles Sanders, Aaron Jones, or a smothering of RBs and top TEs. If I’m rebuilding, Cook may be worth holding for another year or so but not much longer. I expect a mild value increase at best, though. If you’re in the business of flipping for big value, I’d look elsewhere. 

Jerome Ford - Cleveland Browns 

Fantasy Grade: N/A 

Kareem Hunt’s departure from Cleveland leaves a void at RB2 behind Nick Chubb. 

There’s no reason to believe that Ford is the team’s RB of the future but he seems to be running away with the backup job despite a hamstring injury. There’s a shred of value for Ford even when Chubb is healthy. He may not get as many touches and targets as Kareem Hunt has had - especially with Deshaun Watson at QB who only averages 4.9 RB targets a game in his career - but he can spell Chubb.

If you’re going to load up on cuffs, Ford is trending towards a large workload on a team that will score if Chubb were to go down. Ford isn’t the talent that Kareem Hunt was but can offer moderate standalone value. Stefanski’s offense may employ 2RB sets at an above-average rate but he tends to focus on multiple TE personnel groupings to not only aid the receiving game but also block for his strong run game. Ford has a similar size to both Chubb and Hunt so he can steal some goal-line work. It’s unlikely he sees receiving game work comparable to Hunt. Deshaun Watson doesn’t target RBs very often and Ford’s college target share is quite small. There isn’t predictable FLEX potential here when Chubb is healthy, but he may be fine in a pinch if you believe the team will run away with the game early and rest the starters. 

Ford is not someone I’m rushing to trade for in dynasty but you should have a healthy amount of backup RBs on your team. In redraft, he is a perfectly fine last pick. 

Zamir White - Las Vegas Raiders 

Fantasy Grade: N/A 

The only Georgia Bulldog that out-rushed James Cook in his final 2 college seasons was none other than Zamir White. The backup RB has been generating hype this season, mostly thanks to a Josh Jacobs contract holdout that has now ended. 

It is difficult to gain any carries when Josh Jacobs is busy rushing for 1,653 yards and 12 TDs while also acting as a receiving threat. How do you justify ever taking him off the field? Derek Carr was 2nd on the team in rush attempts with 24. Brandon Bolden and Zamir White tied for 3rd with 17 each. While being listed as 2nd on the team’s official depth chart is a good look, how can we assume that White will be a clear-cut starter in the event of an injury?

That’s what you’re drafting White for, by the way. With 0 targets as a rookie, a college career-high of 9 receptions, and only 9 routes ran in 14 games, receiving upside is looking highly unlikely. It’s not that the Raiders don’t use other RBs in the passing game, they do! Ameer Abdullah was targeted 32 times and Bolden drew 9 for himself. It’s just that we don’t have a history of even half-decent receiving usage for White. I don’t expect things to change anytime soon, even if Jacobs were to miss a significant portion of the season. 

Where White should excite you is in his athleticism. His RAS of 9.82 was only behind Breece Hall, Rachaad White, Master Teague III, and Zander Horvath. Clearly the last two names show you that RAS can only mean so much, but there are some key differences. White declared for the draft after his junior year while the other two played 4 years (although Teague redshirted as a freshman so he was technically a junior as well), and White’s rushing stats in the SEC trumped the Big 10 stats of the other two. Teague went undrafted and has only been on practice squads while Horvath was a 7th round pick who has played RB/FB for the Chargers. Additionally, neither player boasts speed like White. Zamir White has scores of 9.66, 9.68, and 9.69 in the 40-yard dash, 20-yard split, and 10-yard split, respectively. His broad jump score of 9.63 is also noteworthy. Not only has White found more college success in less play time, but he has tested as a 96th percentile speedster. 

Unfortunately, that all can only mean so much. I’d love to buy in on a speedy backup with production at a top school but trusting strictly his rushing abilities is opening yourself up to a seriously unstable floor. In the absolute best case, he could be 2022 D’Onta Foreman.

White sticks out as a game-script dependent play with upside but with an awful floor. In dynasty, I have no intent on buying White, but he shouldn’t be on your waiver wire either. 

Jaylen Warren - Pittsburgh Steelers 

Fantasy Grade: N/A 

Like Jerome Ford and Zamir White, Jaylen Warren is backing up a highly drafted bellcow RB. Unlike Jerome Ford and Zamir White, Jaylen Warren has shown flashes on the NFL field and has a much more legitimate shot at cutting into Harris’s workload.

The Steelers are known for their continued old school and family style of football. They enjoy drafting players with personalities that fit the team and keeping those players on the team rather than making big splashes in free agency. The Steelers typically have a great defense and generate high sack numbers, and they will typically have a bellcow at RB that they are not afraid to feed year after year. Promotions typically come from within, and the team is often hesitant to make hasty firings and definitely doesn’t tank under HC Mike Tomlin. 

With this in mind, does Jaylen Warren have a chance to break through in this old school team? 

Warren doesn’t have elite athleticism from his testing scores but does show elite speed in his 10-yard split, which is important for RBs. Warren also stole a boatload of work in the RB room. His 77 rushing attempts were high for a rookie Steelers RB who never started a game to fill in for an injury, and his 33 targets were shockingly close to Najee Harris’ 53. It may not surprise you to find out that Warren was more efficient as both a rusher and receiver, though that tends to happen when you get significantly fewer touches. Among RBs with at least 75 opportunities, though, he finished with the 5th highest PPOxTD. 

Like Rachaad White, Warren played his first two seasons at community college, so you’re not going to find his college stats on most of the usual database websites like Sports Reference. It’s also futile trying to decide if 1,435 yards and 15 TDs at Snow is worth anything once you go to the NFL. Warren eventually moved onto Utah State before ending his senior season at Oklahoma State, rushing for 1,216 yards and 11 TDs while adding 25 receptions. He’ll be 25 before the season ends but clearly shows that he can break off big runs today, and that’s all I care about. 

The biggest reason I believe that Warren can be a key component of this team is his red zone usage and the drop in snap percentage for Najee Harris. Harris saw his red zone rushing share drop from 70.7% to 52.7% from his rookie to sophomore season. Part of that can be attributed to moving on from an old, immobile Ben Roethlisberger to a mobile rookie in Kenny Pickett at QB. However, even when Roethlisberger was playing, no RB received more than 1 red zone carry. Warren not only got 11 as a rookie but captured 14.9% of the rushing share in that part of the field. For all the warranted hate that Matt Canada receives, you have to be happy about how this run game has morphed under him. Najee also saw a major drop in team snaps played. Aside from an injury in Week 12, he went from playing 84% of offensive snaps to only 66%. In fact, there was only one game where he played more than 80% of snaps. In 2021, he met or beat that mark in 12/17 games. Part of that may be attributed to his decreased role as a receiver. While Ben Roethlisberger peppered him with targets, that trend did not continue with Kenny Pickett. I’d also wager that Matt Canada’s belief in Warren’s talent and initial burst kept him out on the field. 

The Steelers are unlikely to overhaul their philosophy just yet, but Jaylen Warren has the best chance to buck the trend. With an ADP in the 13th round, I am more than willing to grab a healthy share of Warren in redraft. Not only will he be fed in the event of an injury but he could legitimately post RB3 weeks with a few RB2 finishes sprinkled in. Like most of these backups, I really have no interest in buying Warren for an inflated price unless he’s a throw-in for a trade. Although he has the ability to carve out a role on his own, it’s not something that excites me for dynasty outside of his handcuff status. Perhaps Warren can take over this role if Najee Harris leaves but you’re still waiting out another 2 years of his contract plus a 5th year option. Is that something you’re willing to wait on while assuming no competition is brought in? I’m a little too impatient for that.

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By Themi Michalakis