Sophomore Bump or Slump? Wide Receivers Pt. 1

Welcome to the Sophomore Bump or Slump? Series! Over the next few days, we will look back at the 2022 rookie class to dissect their rookie years and take a look towards their sophomore seasons! We are through Running Backs, Quarterbacks and Tight Ends, which brings us to the crown jewel of the 2022 NFL Draft, the Wide Receivers.

Garrett Wilson - New York Jets 

Fantasy Grade: 80.3/100 

WR1 Games: 3 

PPG: 10.25 

The Offensive Rookie of the Year is a surprisingly divisive player in fantasy football circles. Garrett Wilson is getting a major QB upgrade for the next year or two with the Jets signing future hall of famer Aaron Rodgers. With a massive breakout looming, you would think that a young Garrett Wilson would get the high-end WR1 treatment.

In 2022 with horrific QB play, Wilson’s147 targets were tied for 7th most in the league with Diontae Johnson and ahead of Amon-Ra St. Brown, A.J. Brown and more. He was 12th in red zone targets, had a 30.65% red zone target share and a 23.44% total target share. 

Wilson put up 1,103 yards catching passes from Zach Wilson, Mike White, and Joe Flacco. His 25% range target share is here to stay. Allen Lazard, Mecole Hardman, and Randal Cobb round out the receiver room, showing that Wilson is the clear alpha.

Aaron Rodgers had the 12th highest True Throw Value in 2022. That should be an improvement from the 36th (Mike White), 50th (Zach Wilson), and 56th (Joe Flacco) ranked QBs last season. Despite all of his targets, Wilson was 50th in True Target Value and can expect that to skyrocket this year. Even a 39-year-old Rodgers should help him with his air yards as well. Wilson was 11th in Total True Air Yards and 5th in Unrealized True Air Yards. You think 1,100 yards and 4 TDs is coming in 2023? Think again. 

It is hard to claim that Wilson is worth picking over A.J. Brown, Cooper Kupp, or Davante Adams due to their trustworthiness as stars in the league, however, Wilson absolutely has the potential to set career highs across the board this year and operate as a high end WR1. He is worth the pick in redraft.

Players are looking to sell Wilson in dynasty and I can understand the sentiment. His career ceiling is capped even with Rodgers and we have no idea who will take over the Jets after him. We’ve seen plenty of elites rise and fall over the years. It’s a volatile market and it’s more likely that you can improve your team by selling at this presumed peak and grabbing multiple starters who may be on the older side to push for a win. Even if you’re rebuilding you can grab valuable draft capital that will could turn into one or two players that can match Wilson most weeks. As big of a supporter as I am, I understand that the dynasty market is a key part of finding success and giving up a great player is a sacrifice you often need to make. 

Chris Olave - New Orleans Saints 

Fantasy Grade: 80.9/100 

WR1 Games: 2 

PPG: 10.81 

Chris Olave was drafted the pick after former Ohio State teammate Garrett Wilson, and finished as the WR2 behind him in OROY voting, finishing the season with 71 fewer receiving yards than Wilson.

Olave’s weekly finishes may make you question selecting him in the second round but his opportunity stats speak for themselves. Averaging nearly 8 targets a game and with 4 separate weeks of 12+ targets, there is no question that Olave is the top target in this offense. RB Alvin Kamara and TE Juwan Johnson came 2nd and 3rd on the team in targets, while Jarvis Landry was the WR2 when he played. None of them were stealing Olave’s targets and playing time. 

Olave only played 66% of offensive snaps in his 15 games, but even if you exclude the two games where he left early, there is room for him to grow as an every down WR. With 119 targets as a rookie and little target competition in 2022, what’s going to stop Olave from taking a massive step forward in 2023?

Olave’s biggest threat is Michael Thomas, who will attempt to have a healthy season for the first time since leading the league in receiving yards in 2019. Thomas has only played in 10 total games in the past 3 seasons but continued to command a ton of targets in those games. In three games together, Olave played over 74% of offensive snaps and averaged a 25.22% target share. He peaked with his best performance of the season in Week 3, when he finished as the WR6. Thomas eclipsed 70% of offensive snaps once and had a target share of 19.13%. He peaked as the WR7 in Week 1 after catching 2 TDs. At 30 years old, Michael Thomas is going to need to put together a healthy season and overcome an age cliff to even try to keep pace with the young Olave. His target share is not going to be threatened much and there aren’t many new additions to the team. Juwan Johnson will be battling Foster Moreau for the TE1 role.  

Opportunity is there but we need efficiency. Per PlayerProfiler, Olave’s 2.57 yards per route run ranked 10th last season, and it’s not unreasonable to expect an increase with a QB upgrade in Derek Carr. The quality of targets - especially the deep ball - can only improve with Carr. As the Dynasty Don, Matt Ward, noted in Broto’s Saints Heat Wave episode, Carr finished 2023 5th in air yards, 5th in tight window throws of 15+ yards, 5th in deep ball attempts, 2nd in air yards per attempt, and over the past 3 seasons was top-5 in deep ball attempts and deep ball completion percentage. Olave needs a QB like that. Among players with at least 75 targets, his 787 Total True Air Yards ranked 9th last season and his 324 Unrealized True Air Yards was 7th. Davante Adams finished 1st in both of those categories in his first and only NFL season with Carr.

Furthermore, Olave’s Reception Perception chart showcases his incredible success in nearly every type of route. Big things are on the horizon for the sophomore WR.

Olave makes a ton of sense at his late second round ADP and you can feel confident with him as your WR1 if you take an RB in the first.

In dynasty, I would be looking to get him on as many teams as possible. WR8 only leaves so much room for growth but he could be close to WR3/4 this time next year and will be a stud for your team for years to come. 

Drake London - Atlanta Falcons 

Fantasy Grade: 68.3/100 

WR1 Games: 2 

PPG: 8.39 

This is an eerily familiar situation. If you can remember all the way back to 2019, A.J. Brown was but a humble 2nd round pick for the Tennessee Titans. He was a supremely talented WR stuck with HC Mike Vrabel in a run-heavy offense. For all the talent he had, he just couldn’t overcome those tendencies and never exceeded 1,100 yards with the Titans. He was still able to finish as the WR15 overall and the WR26 in half-PPR PPG as a rookie. Like most rookies at the position, Brown didn’t take off until the second half of the season where he averaged 19.2 points in his final 6 games. Despite missing two games the following year and dropping from an unsustainable 20.2 yards per reception, Brown ended his sophomore campaign as the WR11 overall and WR5 in PPG. 

While Drake London is not A.J. Brown, he was still the 8th overall pick in 2022 and had a very impressive rookie season. London commanded an elite 29.25% target share as a rookie, almost 10% higher than Brown’s rookie season. He was also targeted 16 times in the red zone, good for 33.33% of all Falcons red zone targets. That was also tied for the 18th most in the league last year. There is no doubt that he is going to be a massive part of the Falcons offense. 

From weeks 13 to 18, London did not see fewer than 8 targets in a single game, a mark he only reached once in the previous 12 weeks. He averaged 9.6 targets per game in that span. You could make the argument his best weeks came with TE Kyle Pitts out. London averaged 5.8 targets and 37.4 yards when Pitts played but averaged 8.4 targets and 70.3 yards when Pitts was out. We just don’t know if this trend will continue in 2023 but we have to take into account that WRs take time to grow in their rookie season and Pitts got hurt right around the time that most WRs would begin taking off. There was also a different QB situation to end the season and London didn’t catch a single TD with Pitts out. The difference in half-PPR fantasy points with and without Pitts was only 1.2 points. Both players can eat as the clear top receiving options on the team and I would expect London to look a bit closer to his end-of-season form even with a healthy Kyle Pitts.

RBs Bijan Robinson and Cordarrelle Patterson will cut into the target share but they’ll also help keep the team out on the field and serve different roles. Pitts and London are the high aDOT targets. Mack Hollins will get some targets as the WR2 but he’s not comparable in talent and won’t hurt London.

Let’s not forget that London played with rookie QB Desmond Ridder for 4 of his final 5 games and drew some of his highest target numbers all season. London wasn’t getting peppered with the highest quality throws either. According to Pro Football Reference, Desmond Ridder had a “bad throw” on 18.2% of all of his pass attempts. If he played enough to qualify for the main stats table, that would have been tied with Matthew Stafford and Kenny Pickett for the 8th worst in 2022. Ridder only averaged 177 yards per game and threw 2 total TDs. His pass attempts were high, though, averaging 28.75 in 4 games. Marcus Mariota only averaged 21.4 pass attempts per game but threw for 15 TDs. That’s to be expected from a veteran but we saw that London heavily benefited from Ridder at QB. More TDs is always a plus but if I want London for his talent I’m banking on him getting a lot of targets. There were only two games where London caught a TD and finished as WR2 or better under Mariota. 

As a prospect, London checks a lot of boxes. He’s an early declare drafted as the 8th overall pick with a 99th percentile breakout age. He’s tall, has a respectable college dominator, and has decent speed. Because he didn’t attend the NFL Combine, we have no real scores for him in that regard and his 40-yard time is from his pro day. A full view of his athleticism would have helped. 

London ranked 8th in True Target Value, a Broto-exclusive metric that looks at the quality and quantity of targets and determines how much they should be worth. This isn’t one of those stats that puts random guys like Mecole Hardman at the top, either. The leaderboard features the elite names at the top and gets more mediocre as you go further down the list. Justin Jefferson ranked 14th as a rookie and jumped to 4th in 2021, just before taking off as the WR1 in fantasy in 2022. One season of elite TTV alone can’t justify London but it’s a good indication that he’s in line for a lot of fantasy points if this continues. 

Drake London is one of those players who has all the talent in the world and happened to fall into a frustrating situation. I believe that he can still succeed and finish as a WR1 regardless but what I love the most about him is buying him in dynasty. I am a firm believer in betting on talent, especially at WR.

In redraft, I like London right around his cost. I’m not reaching too much for him but as the WR22 going in the 4th or 5th round, he can be a very good WR2/3. Buy the talent but have some patience and don’t overexpose yourself in redraft. He has the talent to outperform his situation like A.J. Brown did but we need to see it before we can go all-in. In dynasty, I really want to roster a ton of London and I’ll be buying him but I’m not overpaying for my guy just because I believe in him. I’m not willing to part with an early to mid 2024 1st for him if I’m rebuilding, so unless I’m getting a great deal, I’m holding off for another year. Even if he can’t eventually get to a team that will help him reach his ceiling, I still believe he can finish with low-end WR1 upside for multiple seasons in Atlanta. If you’re contending, you probably want him as your WR3 and the WR14 price tag is just a bit too steep in existing leagues. 

Treylon Burks - Tennessee Titans 

Fantasy Grade: 32.7/100 

WR1 Games: 0 

PPG: 6.5 

Treylon Burks makes Drake London’s landing spot look like the Kansas City Chiefs. The Tennessee Titans had one of the worst receiving seasons I have ever seen. An elderly Robert Woods led the team in receiving yards with 527. Treylon Burks was on pace to beat that but missed six full games. This year will be different but it still won’t be pretty. 

Although QB Ryan Tannehill started most of the year, rookie Malik Willis and journeyman Joshua Dobbs made a few starts. Willis was sacked at one of the highest percentages in the league and only threw for 276 yards and 0 TDs in 3 starts. Dobbs fared a bit better but neither of them were nearly as good as Tannehill. A full season out of their lead veteran is just one area where Burks could benefit. Tannehill was 17th in the league in EPA/Play and has a resume that proves that he deserves a starting job. While volume has always been lacking in Tennessee, his high TD% can make up for it. The Titans also drafted Will Levis with the 33rd overall pick of the 2023 draft so there’s always a chance he gets some playing time if the season falls apart. 

Like we explored with Drake London, the Titans love to run the ball. Mike Vrabel’s Titans teams have run the ball at least 49.8% of the time every season, often surpassing 50%. They also run at some of the highest marks when trailing, showing their commitment to the run game. Until Derrick Henry stops producing at an elite level, we can’t assume this philosophy will change.

Burks has the makings of a good receiver but he just couldn’t put it together in his rookie year. He had a good 40-yard dash time given his big frame and he had a monster 45.9% college dominator (93rd percentile) according to PlayerProfiler. A disappointing combine hasn’t helped sway any skeptics and his efficiency stats weren’t eye popping either, but I believe that Burks can eventually exploit his size to become a steady contributor. His 1.21 PPOxTD was 19th amongst WRs but his True Target Value was close to the bottom of the league. Still, he made the most of his high-target games but you’d like to see him emerge as a red zone threat considering his size, speed, and contested catch skills. It truly feels like the Titans refused to use him correctly despite trading away A.J. Brown to draft him. With another year and hopefully a full year of Tannehill, I expect him to take a massive leap forward. Playing alongside DeAndre Hopkins also may give him even better matchups when teamps play man-to-man defense as well. New OC Tim Kelly may also find ways to change this offense up and get the top receivers some targets. 

Burks peaked at WR20 on KTC this off-season but dropped to WR31 the day that DeAndre Hopkins signed. A knee injury suffered during practice hasn’t changed his value much. If you don’t like Burks as a talent that’s one thing but to overreact to a signing that arguably helps a player is foolish. Dynasty is a game about patience. While it is very valuable to constantly flip players at a presumed peak for profit, there are players worth buying at a dip and holding. I don’t think it’s outrageous to say that Burks should easily improve upon his rookie season and that Hopkins will only help him in the short term. This short-sighted drop in value is very reactionary. Volume is hard to come by in this offense but teams throw more when they have talented WRs. It may only be a slight increase but it will be a noticeable one.

To some, Burks is screaming value in redraft but I’m going to need him to fall about a round to consider him. One of my favorite values at WR, Jahan Dotson, is going just a bit earlier and QBs like Tua Tagovailoa or Deshaun Watson offer more for my team in this range. Once you start getting into the Kadarius Toney and Gabriel Davis range, I am willing to snag Burks as my WR4. However, I do like targeting Khalil Herbert or Zach Charbonnet at RB about a round later too so it’s a delicate balance as to how often I’m willing to take him. In dynasty, I’d really like to flip a middling WR and a late 2nd for Burks. I see him as a talent worth a late 1st so this is a good time to grab a share or two. 

George Pickens - Pittsburgh Steelers 

Fantasy Grade: 56.2/100 

WR1 Games: 3 

PPG: 8.26 

The Steelers have produced a select few high-end fantasy producers. When Ben Roethlisberger was at QB you could feel confident drafting the team’s WR1 and RB1, and maybe even their WR2. Now with a sophomore Kenny Pickett on the team, things have changed. Najee Harris is being drafted as an RB1/2, Pat Freiermuth is locked in as a TE1, and both George Pickens and Diontae Johnson have their respective fan bases and hype trains as WR2/3s. It’s a shame because these weapons could all flourish with the right system and QB.

Kenny Pickett just isn’t in a position to help all of these guys finish at the top of their position and Pickens could be on the outside looking in most games. Diontae Johnson is a target hog and hasn’t finished with fewer than 144 targets or a 21.95% target share since his rookie season. Johnson has averaged at least a 25% target share over the past two seasons, too. 

Pickens has a lot to gain from last season. His 14.5 aDOT was 7th in the league but his 237 Unrealized True Air Yards ranked 27th amongst all pass catchers. Per PFR, Kenny Pickett had a bad throw on 18.2% of his pass attempts, 8th most in the league. Pickens is a player with so much to gain, and I believe we see a leap in 2023. He’s a great player to watch for spectacular catches and his RAS of 9.37 does him a lot of good. His 9.75 score on the 10-yard split is especially exciting. Remember that Pickens dropped in the draft due to injury issues. We only got to see him play in 4 games in his 3rd season at Georgia but he blew his college numbers out of the water in his time as a rookie on this Steelers team.

On a weekly basis, I don’t believe Pickens can be 100% trusted but I expect a bump in both floor and peak games. He’ll still have his moments where the luck just doesn’t go his way, and with reported separation issues, Diontae Johnson will still excel as the main pass catcher. 

With an anticipated step up in both passing volume and TDs for Kenny Pickett, Pickens should offer inconsistent WR2 upside but he is overpriced in redraft leagues. Teammate Diontae Johnson is going a few picks later and fellow sophomore Jahan Dotson offers a similar level of risk/reward later in the draft and with less competition.

In dynasty I’d be looking to trade him. His KTC value places him alongside guys like Dak Prescott, Brandon Aiyuk, Jahan Dotson, and Rhamondre Stevenson. A mid 1st would be a great return. Players can be overpriced and great. Don’t let their talent blind you from the reality of their situation and ceiling. 

Jameson Williams - Detroit Lions 

Fantasy Grade: N/A 

WR1 Games: 0 

PPG: 2.43 

Talk about a tough one. Jameson Williams is a speed demon on an exciting young offense but we basically have nothing to work with. With only 9 targets and 2 total touches in 6 games, this is uncharted territory. 

After only 15 receptions, 266 yards, and 3 TDs in his first two years at Ohio State, “Jamo” broke out for 79 receptions, 1,572 yards, and 15 TDs at Alabama. Still recovering from a torn ACL from college, Williams didn’t make his NFL debut until Week 13. His first reception came in Week 14, which he took for a 41-yard TD. That would be his only catch all season. In Week 17, he added 40 yards on a rushing attempt before ending the season with 81 total yards. We have 6 games, 9 targets, and 1 rushing attempt to dissect his NFL career. To make matters worse, we don’t even know if our research will provide any real results in 2023. Williams is suspended for the first 6 games of the season after violating the NFL’s gambling policy. 

That may be why the team brought back veteran WR Marvin Jones Jr. A speedy receiver who has consistently ranked in the top of the league in aDOT, Jones can partially fill the role that would have otherwise gone to Williams. Jones isn’t a speed demon like Jamo but he ran a 4.46 40-yard dash. That’s not bad for a 6’2 199-pound receiver. Whether it was during his time in Detroit or Jacksonville, Jones’ aDOT has remained consistently high and has a career average of 12.9 yards. At 33 years old I wouldn’t expect start-worthy performances out of him.

The Lions were willing to take a risk on Jamo, selecting him with the 12th overall pick in the 2022 draft. The draft capital will work in his favor but we’ve seen 1st round WRs fade into obscurity. John Ross, Jalen Reagor, and N’Keal Harry are just some recent examples of why draft capital and sunk cost aversion can only do so much for a player. 

Unless you have an IR spot that allows suspended players, Williams is a waste of a bench spot in most leagues. Instead of taking Jameson Williams in the 9th or 10th round, here are some players who can help you at each position going later on Sleeper 

QBs Daniel Jones, Jared Goff, Derek Carr, Brock Purdy 

RBs Damien Harris, Jerick McKinnon, Elijah Mitchell, Tyler Allgeier, Tank Bigsby WRs Skyy Moore, Nico Collins, Rondale Moore, Alec Pierce 

TEs Greg Dulcich, Tyler Higbee 

I am taking a risk by simply not opening myself up to the risk of rostering Jamo and burning a bench spot. In dynasty, I want to get rid of him to a manager that still believes. Waiting closer until his suspension ends to shop him would be ideal.

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By Themi Michalakis