Christian Watson - Green Bay Packers
Fantasy Grade: 61.7/100
WR1 Games: 4
PPG: 10.26
Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave may have been the rookie receiving leaders but Christian Watson had the best fantasy stretch of the group.
From Weeks 10 to 13, Watson was the WR1 and the 5th highest scoring fantasy player at any position. He never finished lower than the half-PPR WR8 in a given week in that span, catching a TD in all 4 games. Watson was looking like the second-half breakout to lead you to a fantasy championship. An ill-timed bye week must have brought him back to Earth because he only had one WR3 or better finish in his final 4 games.
Watson’s fate rests on Jordan Love. Waiting in the wings for two years now, Love is now the unquestioned starter in Green Bay, following in the gigantic footsteps of Packers legend Aaron Rodgers. While he has upside, it is impossible to know how he will respond to the pressure.
Watson has some nice athleticism and had one of the best combines a player could ask for. Watson was elite in almost every category and especially shined with his speed. His 10 and 20-yard splits graded 9.98 and he has some serious size. He can even add some weight but there’s a growing trend of smaller, slimmer WRs. We’ve seen what Watson can do when healthy. From Week 10 until the end of the season, there was only one game where Watson drew less than six targets.
Watson is a candidate for major TD regression after catching one TD on about 10% of his targets but should remain heavily involved as a red zone threat. His 13 red zone targets were 2nd on the team behind Allen Lazard - now on the Jets - and accounted for 17.57% of all team red zone targets.
To some, Watson is a screaming value and one of the highest upside receivers you can find after the 3rd or 4th rounds. I understand the hype for this tremendous athlete and I concede his upside is immaculate. Even if Jordan Love is slightly below average as a QB, Watson can overcome enough of that to post some massive boom weeks. It’s just hard to bet on a player going as the WR25 as a weekly contributor each and every week. If Watson is your upside WR3 alongside two studs, that’s perfectly fine. If he’s your WR2 I would really hope the rest of your team can put up a ton of points every week to compensate for the down weeks. In dynasty, I think Watson could be a hold but the high-end of his trade value is tempting. Trading for a QB like Dak Prescott in superflex leagues or a 2024 mid 1st would be most ideal but it's unlikely that you can get those straight up despite the hype.
Jahan Dotson - Washington Commanders
Fantasy Grade: 49.7/100
WR1 Games: 2
PPG: 9.43
Most rookie WRs don’t find fantasy success early, but that didn’t seem to be the case for Jahan Dotson. The 1st rounder out of Penn State caught 4 TDs in his first four games, managing to finish as a WR2 in three of those weeks.
That’s about where the positives end in that span, though. Dotson didn’t exceed 4 receptions or 59 receiving yards to start the year and he finished as the WR96 in his 3rd week despite drawing 8 targets. Dotson averaged 5.5 targets and 38 yards to start the year during a time when Carson Wentz was throwing over 40 times a game. He only managed a 12.8% target share before getting hurt.
After returning in Week 10, he was not getting any looks. Total team routes had dropped to nearly half of what they were during Wentz’ hot start but Dotson was still heavily involved on a percentage basis. His participation just didn’t lead to anything for a few games. By Week 13, the targets and routes were back up and Dotson went on a tear through Week 16. The rookie caught a TD in three straight games and averaged 16.3 points per game, good for the WR6 in PPG. He averaged 7 targets and 68.8 yards in his final 5 games, posting 2 WR1 weeks and a WR2 week.
From Weeks 10 through 12, Dotson had just returned from injury and only drew four total targets while the Commanders won every single game. The Commanders passed the 10th fewest times when leading, the 5th lowest when tied, but about the middle of the pack when trailing. If new OC Eric Bieniemy takes a book out of Kansas City’s playbook, the team may not only pass more overall but also in leading situations.
Sam Howell was covered in the QB section of this series and is clearly a risky prospect and player. I still find it hard to believe that the passing can get much worse. Carson Wentz was on fire to start the season, ranking as the QB5 and supporting 3 top-27 WRs in the first 3 weeks. By the end of the season, he was 29th in EPA/Play and averaged 219.4 passing yards per game. Wentz got by from beating up on three of the worst pass defenses in the league in Detroit, Jacksonville, and Tennessee. Philadelphia and Dallas turned him back to normal and his EPA/Play backs how mediocre he was. Howell doesn’t have enough of an NFL sample but Brissett was solid if he needs to be called in again. This QB situation is an upgrade, even if it’s a small one.
Washington has a massive range of outcomes. They likely won’t be winning the division but they have the chance to showcase a legitimately fun offense if the pieces fall into place. With a late-round sophomore QB and a 1st round sophomore WR, new OC Eric Bieniemy will attempt to show just how creative he can get. Bieniemy has been especially controversial in recent years, as he was considered by the media and fans as a top Head Coach candidate but failed to make it with a team. After leaving Kansas City and an offensive genius in HC Andy Reid, some have theorized that he didn’t do much while Reid handled the offense. Now in Washington, his coaching practices have come under fire with Ron Rivera addressing Bieniemy’s intensity and player complaints about it. Maybe Bieniemy is too harsh but maybe this is just overblown. Players are never going to fully agree with coaches and coordinators but many have praised this type of approach, so long as the person knows what they’re talking about. Bieniemy has had the benefit of learning from one of the best and it seems like he genuinely cares about making this offense special. That's something Washington hasn’t had in a long time but times are changing in the nation’s capital, hopefully for the better.
I expect a better offense than what Scott Turner was operating and I believe that if Howell can’t cut it, a veteran like Jacoby Brissett can be a passable replacement. Brissett went 4-7 as a starter in Cleveland last year while Deshaun Watson served his suspension. Despite the horrid record, Brissett was perfectly fine for fantasy through the first 12 weeks of the season. He was only the QB17 and averaged 15.8 points per game but Nick Chubb was the half-PPR RB4 in both total points and points per game. Amari Cooper was the WR8 overall and WR13 in PPG. WR2 Donovan Peoples-Jones was not especially startable but had a peak of WR14 in Week 11 and was startable as a WR3. This was with the team supporting the TE11, David Njoku. I don’t expect Washington to have the same problem. Kevin Stefanski’s Browns have run the ball at least 48.3% of the time according to Broto’s coaching tendencies. Rivera’s teams have been more of a mixed bag as he doesn’t call offensive plays.
Sam Howell has a great arm and Dotson can be the guy on the receiving end of the deep balls. His Reception Perception profile showcases his success as a deep threat. His 13.5 aDOT backs that usage, as well. Building off of his rookie season should be manageable and his per-game averages to end the season can repeat over a season with some even better games thrown in. This isn’t a bulletproof prospect but one that is not being drafted too far from George Pickens, Treylon Burks, or Gabe Davis. I don’t believe any of those players can become what Dotson can this season, not only his upside but his weekly floor. This is also the range of the draft where RBs are seriously dropping off. Dotson can be an excellent WR4. In dynasty he’s getting valued quite highly but based on perception I’d like to trade Christian Watson or George Pickens for Dotson plus a pick.
As a great basketball player once said, “the ceiling is the roof” and that won’t be any different at FedEx Field.
Skyy Moore - Kansas City Chiefs
Fantasy Grade: N/A
Above everyone else in this class, Skyy Moore has the most to gain this season. Moore joins Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Kadarius Toney as the starting WRs in Kansas City and gets the luxury of catching passes from the great Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs have yet to replace star WR Tyreek Hill since his departure to Miami but TE Travis Kelce is the de facto WR1.
The top 3 Chiefs WRs in targets last season only combined for 9 half-PPR performances of WR2 or better. JuJu Smith-Schuster was by far the most successful and finished the season with 101 targets and 933 yards. He was the WR40 in PPG. Mecole Hardman only played in 8 games all season and finished as the WR33 in PPG. It seems the Chiefs have enjoyed having a variety of WRs to spread the ball around without any single player earning the big workload we want in this offense. Skyy Moore is the question mark this year to see if this trend can be bucked.
Moore’s college numbers are fantastic but we need to acknowledge that he played in the MAC. A fun conference, no doubt, but not one that leads to consistent NFL talent like the Power 5 conferences. We can’t helmet scout but we can wish that we saw Moore feast on some better defenses. Regardless, he showed that he was the best of the bunch at Western Michigan and posted a 91st percentile college dominator and 99th percentile college target share per PlayerProfiler. His overall RAS wasn’t anything special but his speed grades were chart-toppers. It’s still highly probable that nobody on this Chiefs offense produces enough on a weekly basis to justify starting with confidence. Kadarius Toney is a massive threat to the receiver room when healthy. That’s apparently a big ask right now but he should get a bit of playing time. Rookie Rashee Rice was selected with KC’s 2nd pick and undrafted sophomore Justyn Ross should make his NFL debut as well. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is also still around and commanded a 13.2% target share last year. There are clearly a lot of players battling for a part of this pie and none are as obviously talented as Travis Kelce. GM Brett Veach’s recent comments seem to indicate that Moore will have the opportunity to begin the season with plenty of snaps but it’s no guarantee that it lasts forever. As the ADP for any of these guys indicates, it’s hard to definitively call anyone the WR1.
I think people are still far too enamored with a WR who may not offer nearly enough consistency to sniff your lineup most weeks but he’s going as the half-PPR WR53 on Sleeper right now. His role on this offense may be more theoretical than others being drafted around him like Tyler Boyd. At this point in the draft you can’t expect safety from WRs here, nor should you be targeting that. As a team’s WR5/6 I will reach just a bit and take the risk on Skyy Moore on at least half of my rosters. Despite a ton of twitter hype, he is not skyrocketing on every platform. He’s going a bit earlier on both ESPN and Yahoo but the price is still justifiable. In dynasty, I really don’t think Moore is worth a buy. His hype leads me to believe that he’s a sell-high but most managers will be hesitant to pay up for him without seeing him perform like a top WR in Kansas City. It’s ok to be bullish in redraft late in drafts but your exposure should be moving down in dynasty.
Romeo Doubs - Green Bay Packers
Fantasy Grade: 21.9/100
WR1 Games: 1
PPG: 6.5
While Christian Watson gets all the hype, Romeo Doubs gets forgotten. Doubs was tied with Robert Tonyan for the 3rd most targets on the Packers last season and only played 22 more snaps than Watson. With Allen Lazard gone, Watson and Doubs should be the favorites to lead this team in targets.
Outside of Watson and Doubs, Jayden Reed joins the fray, a 2nd round WR from Michigan State. The Packers have continuously come under fire for failing to surround their QBs, especially Aaron Rodgers, with top WR talent outside of Davante Adams. It seems like they’re now trying to hit on second and third round talents which is perfectly fine. It’s just not great for Doubs. After finding success at Michigan State and joining a young WR room, Reed could realistically replace Doubs in the 2nd half of the season.
Jordan Love will have plenty of options to target when you include RBs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon but you’d expect them to get more work around and behind the line of scrimmage. Doubs should not only get short work but even some medium yardage targets. Christian Watson will be the main target earner but he excels as a deep threat.
Doubs is going to have to outperform a bleak prospect profile to deserve a modest target share. It’s hard to take a shot on a volume-based possession player in an offense with a volatile future. Perhaps he will earn some great volume relative to his ADP but I don’t expect that to last very long. If you’re drafting Doubs, you want him to either keep a consistent role as the weeks go on or offer a massive ceiling. I don’t think either of those will happen over the course of 2023, especially with Jayden Reed waiting for his chance to supplant Doubs and even Watson. I would have loved to have found a diamond in the rough but there is not a lot that Doubs does that you can’t find on the waiver wire, even in a 14-team league. He’s worth a dynasty stash here and there but you’re only really starting him as a last resort anyway.
Alec Pierce - Indianapolis Colts
Fantasy Grade: 27.3/100
WR1 Games: 0
PPG: 5.74
Maybe it’s a lack of early college production or maybe it’s his situation but Alec Pierce seems like he should be a bigger sleeper than he is. His 9.82 RAS paired with his elite speed makes him one of the most underrated deep threats in the league. There wasn’t much going on in year 1 with a Colts team led by 37-year-old Matt Ryan but Pierce was by far the most efficient WR on the team. His 78 targets were 3rd on the team, behind Pittman and Parris Campbell - now on the Giants - and his 14.5 yards per reception was the highest of anyone on the team with at least 10 targets. Pierce also drew 6 red zone targets, good for a 16.67% target share in that area. He’s a big guy who can get even more work there. Pierce quietly finished 6th in rookie receiving yards, though he benefited from playing 16 games. His per-game averages were nothing special but he’s a player who can trend upwards with the right offense.
Rookie QB Anthony Richardson is a polarizing player. There are no questions about his athleticism, his 10.00 RAS ranks him 1st out of 916 QBs going back to 1987. Accuracy concerns are what really hurt Richardson as an NFL player but he can throw the ball as far as anyone which makes this a great pairing for Pierce purely in terms of aDOT. Pierce’s 11.7 aDOT can instantly show you how the Colts understandably have used him compared to someone like Michael Pittman Jr., who only saw a 6.9 aDOT. Whether or not you like Richardson as a passer, you have to realize this situation leads to more upside than with Matt Ryan. There just may not be a floor that fantasy managers can stomach.
The Colts drafted Josh Downs in the 3rd round of the 2023 draft. Downs found a lot of success at North Carolina and broke out with 1,335 yards as a sophomore in 2021. The Colts currently only have 4 WRs on their 53-man roster with Isaiah McKenzie initially being cut and then re-signed. That shows a lot of faith in who they plan to catch passes from Richardson and it also shows that they are essentially facing no competition for their roles right now. Pierce will at worst be the WR3 to end the season but begins as the WR2 alongside Michael Pittman Jr. Even if a move is made during the season, it’s unlikely that it’s someone who will dethrone either of the top three guys barring an injury.
Pierce is a great athlete in his own right but rostering any part of this Colts offense will inevitably lead to frustration and inconsistency. Accuracy issues aside, Richardson may not have the volume to push anyone other than Pittman into startable fantasy territory for many weeks. I like to trust the talent here but you’re just drafting Pierce as your favorite depth pick. Outside of Marvin Mims and Nico Collins, there aren’t a ton of WRs I like in the late stages of the draft. You might as well take a guy with a larger range of outcomes in an offense with a large range of outcomes. In dynasty, I’d be exposing myself to Pierce as much as I can at an inexpensive price.
Jalen Tolbert - Dallas Cowboys
Fantasy Grade: N/A
Is there anything to say about a WR who only drew 3 targets in 8 games?
Expectations weren’t too high for the 3rd round pick but his production as well as a decent combine had some dynasty managers buzzing. With room for a WR to emerge alongside CeeDee Lamb in Dallas’ offense, why not? Amari Cooper was gone and while Dalton Schultz and Michael Gallup were clearly going to continue to get fed, there was a chance to become the WR3 by the end of the year. Unfortunately, it just did not happen. 33-year-old T.Y. Hilton even got more targets in only 3 games.
Tolbert only gets a mention because he was a 3rd round WR with some hype. There is absolutely no reason to even consider Tolbert in redraft and any success this year would be a massive outlier. In dynasty, Tolbert is just fodder. Brandin Cooks was brought in as a short-term WR2 and Michael Gallup will only give up the WR3 role via injury. Cut bait now and stop hoping for some miracle.
David Bell - Cleveland Browns
Fantasy Grade: N/A
Much like Jalen Tolbert, this is a situation that most people are abandoning already. David Bell feasted at Purdue, putting up 1,035 yards and 7 TDs at just 18 years old as a freshman. He finished his Junior season with 1,286 yards and was drafted in the 3rd round by a Browns team with an open competition for their WR2.
Disappointment ensued. Bell was technically the team’s WR3 but finished 7th in targets with 35. The Browns, under run-heavy HC Kevin Stefanski, have not been an ideal spot for a WR3 as their usage of 3WR sets is one of the lowest in the league. Even with high hopes for QB Deshaun Watson - who had a lot of rust to shake off after playing his first six games of football in nearly 2 years - the Browns are seemingly cutting ties with Bell. Elijah Moore was acquired from the New York Jets and could easily become the team’s WR2.
After awful testing at the combine, Bell has to overcome a mountain just to approach fantasy relevance. He’s not even being drafted in 14-team leagues. I’ve already written far too much about a player that you’re not drafting.
If you’d like to wait out Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, and Donovan Peoples-Jones under the assumption that the team paying Deshaun Watson big money won’t surround him with better weapons, be my guest. I’m not planning on acquiring David Bell in dynasty. Rostering a third-string RB with my remaining bench spots may lead to more fantasy points.
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By Themi Michalakis
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.