Welcome to the Sophomore Bump or Slump? Series! Over the next few days, we will look back at the 2022 rookie class to dissect their rookie years and take a look towards their sophomore seasons! We kicked it off with Running Backs and are now diving into Quarterbacks.
Trying to find a hidden gem at QB is nearly impossible after their first few years. They get the most attention, the most playing time, and we often know what we’re getting out of them pretty early on. While fantasy managers gush over Anthony Richardson and the rest of the rookie class, don’t forget that last year’s class was not entirely disappointing. Some of these players could help you win a championship.
Sam Howell - Washington Commanders
Fantasy Grade: 52.5/100
QB1 Games: 1
PPG: 19.3
Believe it or not, Sam Howell averaged the most points of any rookie QB in 2022. His 19.3 points per game ranked 8th among all QBs too. The context we’re missing is that he only played in one game all year. I don’t mean to lie to you but I needed to get you on board with Sam Howell being a legitimate fantasy option. A one game sample is near meaningless - Davis Webb scored 20.8 points in his lone game last year and now he’s the QBs coach for the Denver Broncos. We can still learn a bit from Howell’s lone game, though.
Inexperienced as they come, Howell made some questionable decisions. He often forced throws when he could have either made a play on his own or waited just a fraction of a second longer. We got some flashes of how he deals with pressure and Howell was able to find a running lane quickly after the snap to take off for a few yards at a time. He even took off for a 9 yard TD run while narrowly avoiding a handful of Dallas defenders. Teams know that Howell ran a lot in college but the main issue I see is that if the line can’t handle the pressure, they’re going to try and force Howell to run and have someone ready for him. That could spell disaster for him. The best thing for the young QB is to stay in the pocket a bit longer and trust his talented WRs.
From a fantasy perspective his rushing ability is great. In his first two seasons with UNC, Howell only ran for 181 yards and 6 TDs on 186 total rushing attempts. In his final season, though, he ran for a whopping 828 yards and 11 TDs on 183 attempts. Sacks are counted as rushing attempts and negative rushing yards in college football but this is not a case of getting lucky, this is Howell redefining what kind of player he is. If he can mature just a little bit and this offensive line holds up well, he’s going to become an instant fantasy option.
Jacoby Brissett will be waiting in the wings and could get some playing time if things get ugly. Brissett had a solid outing as the starter for the Cleveland Browns while Deshaun Watson was suspended. Before Watson returned in Week 13, Brissett was 11th in the league in EPA/Play. While he rarely exploded, he was a safe option who could keep the offense moving. The Commanders are beginning to look like a legitimate playoff threat so they need to decide how long they’re going to allow Howell to make mistakes and take risks as he develops.
Without combine scores it is difficult to accurately compare Howell’s athleticism to other QBs. His pro day scores are solid, especially in the shuttle drill, but his hand size, height, and weight are all severely lacking.
With an ADP of QB27, Howell is probably not getting drafted in too many redraft leagues. He is a personal favorite for a late backup QB but 10 and 12-team leagues have enough replacement level players at the position. In dynasty or SF redraft leagues, though, Howell presents himself as a high-upside QB3 option. He doesn’t have the job safety or floor to be a QB2 on a competitive roster just yet.
Even with an age chasm, it’s hard to justify Howell at his KTC price, just barely below Derek Carr and higher than Darren Waller. The upside is sky high but he’s a 5th round pick on a team that could be drafting a QB next year. The hype is getting a bit too crazy to be all-in on Howell being an outlier. Limited exposure in dynasty is the best way to go.
Brock Purdy - San Francisco 49ers
Fantasy Grade: 24.4/100
QB1 Games: 3
PPG: 18.07
The 49ers are the ultimate example of how an elite QB isn’t always necessary when you have an incredible roster and great coaching. Mr. Irrelevant himself, Brock Purdy, won all six of his starts with San Francisco.
In his six full games, Brock Purdy averaged 18.07 fantasy points and never finished worse than the QB18. He threw at least 2 TDs in every game and averaged 218 passing yards. With the team dominating and winning in all of those games, Purdy didn’t need to do a lot to win so it’s only natural that he wasn’t posting insane performances. Still, the rookie finished as a QB1 3 times with a peak of QB5 in Week 18. While a few QBs were resting that week, it’s still impressive and he threw 3 TDs and 0 INTs in a blowout win.
Dynasty managers, at least those voting on KTC, are high on Purdy in the long-term. Somehow that sentiment hasn't been carried into redraft. Maybe it’s because of how dynasty league managers tackle the QB position but the QB23 in redraft is a steal. This is a player who could legitimately be starting with QB1 upside every week and doesn’t even cost you a dime. If you’re getting your starting QB at the end of drafts this year, you’re probably in good shape. Maybe you feel dirty rolling Brock out as your starting guy all season and don’t want to rely on Bryce Young or Ryan Tannehill in a pinch. Pairing Purdy with QBs 19 or 20 Kyler Murray (especially if you have IR slots) or Derek Carr seems like a perfectly reasonable play to me. I’d be looking to trade for Purdy at a slightly lower rate than his KTC price but he’s a steal in redraft every time.
Kenny Pickett - Pittsburgh Steelers
Fantasy Grade: 18.5/100
QB1 Games: 1
PPG: 13.12
The safest starting job from the 2022 QB draft class may also be the least desirable. Kenny Pickett was the only 1st round QB in the 2022 draft and made 12 starts as a rookie. He ended the season with 2,404 passing yards, 7 TDs and 9 INTs. Pickett also added 237 yards and 3 TDs on the ground. Despite this, he only had 1 QB1 finish all season and averaged as many points as Davis Mills and Mac Jones.
Things should change in 2023. Pickett has a year under his belt and the main skill position players are still here. Diontae Johnson and George Pickens are the top 2 WRs, with 2022 rookie Calvin Austin III set to play his first game and Allen Robinson II joining in free agency. Pat Freiermuth will be a much needed third receiving option at TE and is already shaping up to be a rising star at the position. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren may not be elite RBs but the duo can make some plays. The offensive line has been a major issue but the team is bolstering it with some rookies. OT Broderick Jones and TE Darnell Washington are big bodies who may take some time to excel as blockers but will be much needed pieces of Kenny Pickett’s development over the years.
Unfortunately, OC Matt Canada is one of the most predictable and uninspiring OC’s the team has had in recent years. Chasing Todd Haley out of town seems like a major mistake in hindsight. In his final season, former Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger was quite critical of Canada and would often change the plays on his own to actually try to win the game. It’s hard to say how long Canada will last.
No matter the talent on the roster, unless Pickett can develop into a Roethlisberger-esque talent, he will not be anything better than a middling QB2 with this offensive style.
The Steelers offense boasts some nice young weapons, but Pickett is being valued as a 1st round pick in dynasty. For a player ranked as the QB17, I would be staying away.
I expect a big step forward from the young QB but he’s not worth considering in redraft and his dynasty price is just too high. Try to package another player or a pick with Pickett and get someone like Kyler Murray or Tua Tagovailoa from a fearful manager if you roster him.
Bailey Zappe - New England Patriots
Fantasy Grade: 12.8/100
QB1 Games: 1
PPG: 10.41
Like a lightning bolt, Bailey Zappe came and left in an instant. Did you blink? You just missed him.
The 4th round rookie took over for an injured Mac Jones in Week 4. He went 2-0 as a starter and finished as the QB10 in Week 6. He didn’t finish as a QB1 or even QB2 in his other 3 games, while playing at least 65% of offensive snaps in all of them.
Zappe was 20th in EPA/Play (min. 100 QB plays) last season just ahead of Justin Herbert and way ahead of Mac Jones (34th) but the low minimum isn’t exactly enough of a sample size. If we went by this minimum, Sam Darnold would rank 9th, ahead of Trevor Lawrence and just behind Joe Burrow. It’s safe to say that even if this stat was predictive enough on its own, this just doesn’t sound right.
Any thoughts that Zappe could steal this starting job from Mac Jones should no longer exist. Mac has exclusively played with the first team and that’s not shocking at all. Zappe will be the backup. It’s hard enough to justify Mac Jones as a viable fantasy option every week, let alone a 4th round backup. That 4th round backup may have had some exciting success in the short-term but even at his peak he was barely a QB1. He can’t shred NFL defenses week after week. He becomes a desperation matchup-reliant play at best.
Leagues aren’t even considering Zappe as a QB option. He’s valued as the QB40 in dynasty, somehow ahead of Jacoby Brissett who can get a starting job much faster and for much longer. Zappe was a good story for a few weeks but the team is committed to their 1st round QB.
Desmond Ridder - Atlanta Falcons
Fantasy Grade: 11.3/100
QB1 Games: 1
PPG: 9.68
The Falcons have the makings of a great fantasy football offense. There is a clear WR1, RB1 and TE1 all with first round draft capital and impressive prospect profiles. Those players can find success at their respective positions regardless of the QB situation but they would heavily benefit from a competent signal caller.
Despite flashing some incredible athleticism and a 9.62 RAS, Ridder didn’t seem to excel in the categories you’d want for a QB. His height, weight, shuttle, and 3 cone drills were severely lacking. His speed and broad jump scores were near perfection, though.
Development aside, HC Arthur Smith is just a pain in fantasy managers’ behinds. Smith was with the Tennessee Titans for nearly a decade before getting promoted to Offensive Coordinator in 2019. In his two years as their OC, the Titans continued to rank in the top-5 in run percentage. It’s not like the Titans were just blowing teams out and closing out games with rush attempts either, as they were running when trailing in games at some of the highest rates in the league. The Titans have often been a run-focused team but this has especially been prevalent during the Mike Vrabel era, no thanks to their star RB Derrick Henry. This clearly had an effect on Smith.
Under HC Dan Quinn, the Falcons were near the bottom of the league in both general run percentage and run percentage when trailing. After a small increase in Smith’s first year in 2021, the Falcons ran the ball a whopping 57.4% of the time and 55.4% of the time when trailing, both good for 2nd in the league. Part of the equation is going from a statue of a QB in Matt Ryan to some more mobile QBs like Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder, but the philosophy has evidently carried over. If Tennessee is any indication, it just doesn’t seem like Ridder will be in a situation where he can put up consistent QB1 numbers just yet.
Like most QBs, Ridder is not sniffing your starting lineup in redraft anytime soon. He has the weapons to succeed in the future but Arthur Smith’s offensive mindset needs to change first. Ridder is valued just under Sam Howell on KTC but acts as more of an investment. It’s going to take him some time to reach the same peaks Ryan Tannehill had in his best years in Tennessee. You’re better off getting an older QB rental for the next two seasons.
Malik Willis - Tennessee Titans
Fantasy Grade: N/A
QB1 Games: 0
PPG: 7.3
An era that barely started has ended. Malik Willis was the 3rd QB taken in the 2022 draft but has one of the bleakest futures. With only three full games under his belt, the Tennessee Titans still opted to draft a QB in 2023. Will Levis is now the expected backup and will get the chance to become the future of the franchise when Ryan Tannehill becomes a free agent in 2024. Can Willis fight for a starting role?
In his three games with over 30% of offensive snaps played, Willis completed 25 of 49 pass attempts for 234 yards and 3 INTs. He was sacked a whopping 10 times but saved total embarrassment with 95 rushing yards and a rushing TD. Willis is not to blame for all of this, though. The Titans offensive line has been ranked dead last in the league by PFF and it doesn’t look like it got much better in the off-season. Ryan Tannehill didn’t fare much better last season, getting sacked 33 times in 12 games. According to Pro Football Reference, Tannehill was pressured on 24.3% of his dropbacks, the 7th highest total in the league. Malik Willis didn’t play enough to qualify for that statistic but in his limited time he was pressured on 28.8% of his dropbacks. It can’t be easy being a rookie on a team with nearly no weapons and trying to get plays off when you’re constantly being pressured with an offensive line you can’t trust.
Unfortunately, the Titans don’t seem like they’re going to give Willis much time to prove himself. Drafting Will Levis feels like the nail in the proverbial coffin for the young QB. Willis clearly needs to be on a team that can allow him to develop before showcasing his dual-threat abilities to the world. He may have a few chances to show that opportunity if Levis looks awful but his window will be extremely limited. The Titans need to make changes to this team quickly if they ever want to have their QB of the future pan out.
Willis isn’t a consideration in even deep redraft leagues and rostering him in dynasty seems like a good way to burn a roster spot. He’s a TAXI squad consideration at best.
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By Themi Michalakis
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.