Welcome to the Sophomore Bump or Slump? Series! Over the next few days, we will look back at the 2022 rookie class to dissect their rookie years and take a look towards their sophomore seasons! We are kicking it off with Running Backs. Let’s dive in.
Breece Hall - New York Jets
Fantasy Grade: 81.5/100
RB1 Games: 3
PPG: 15.09
There’s no doubt that the 1st RB in the 2022 draft has talent. Breece Hall looked like a steal in the early 2nd round as he started to take full control of the Jets backfield. His athleticism is off the charts. Hall boasts an RB class-leading 9.96 RAS and his speed - both his 40-yard dash time and speed score adjusting for size - is as elite as anyone in the NFL. Athleticism can only do so much but Hall was clearly drafted highly for a reason and produced in his limited playing time.
Hall’s rookie campaign ended with only 80 carries, 3rd on the team, yet he still finished with the most rushing yards and TDs among all Jets RBs. His 5.8 YPC was 4th amongst RBs with at least 40 carries and he averaged 66.1 rushing YPG while adding another 11.5 through the air. On only 99 touches, Hall finished with 681 scrimmage yards and 5 total TDs.
A lack of early rushing usage may have scared managers, but he turned up quickly. After combining for 21 carries in the first 3 weeks of the season, he carried the ball 17, 18, and 20 times in the next 3 weeks. His total targets dropped in this span but the change from Joe Flacco and his 51.67 targets per game to Zach Wilson made this drop expected. Hall still showed off his talents on limited targets, managing to haul in his 2 targets in Week 5 for 100 yards. His 4.74 aDOT was 1st amongst RBs.
Hall’s 5 TDs certainly bolstered his fantasy performances as he finished as a half-PPR RB1 three times and never finished worse than RB21 after Week 1. Don’t be fooled, though, Hall is still uber efficient. Hall’s PPOxTD (points per opportunity excluding TDs) ranked 4th last season among RBs with at least 75 opportunities.
This all happened on a Jets team led by a rookie WR with some awful QB play. Aaron Rodgers has seen better days but he produced after losing star WR Davante Adams and his beloved QB coach Luke Getsy. Now surrounded by significantly more talent, both on offense and defense, there should be fireworks on offense in New York. Whether it’s better game-script or more scoring opportunities, Hall will be in one of the best situations for an RB in the league.
The question this year is not “is Breece Hall good?”. The question is, “Can Breece Hall have an outlier recovery from an ACL tear to justify his ADP?”. None of us are on the Jets medical staff and ACLs are known to take time but early indications are that he has had a speedy recovery and has begun practicing. The team seems confident that he will start in Week 1 but still brought in veteran RB Dalvin Cook for some much-improved depth and another weapon for Aaron Rodgers. If you’re going to bet on a player to take off in the second half of the season, Breece would be as good a bet as any.
We know that Breece can be efficient without many touches but that’s when he is at his absolute healthiest. Unless he can pull an Adrian Peterson and blow the league away the year after an ACL tear, this should not be his best overall season.
At RB15 on Underdog, Hall is dropping to a price where even many risk-averse managers may take a shot on him. At my RB2 slot, I will gamble on Hall’s talent and speedy recovery, but as my team’s RB1, I better have the best WRs in the league to make up for any downside. In dynasty, I wouldn’t be looking to trade for Hall just yet. A mid-season dip in value is well within his range of outcomes and it’s hard to imagine that he improves upon his KTC RB4 ranking more than he can drop from it. Most managers won’t be rushing to sell cheap anyway.
Kenneth Walker III - Seattle Seahawks
Fantasy Grade: 74.6/100
RB1 Games: 5
PPG: 12.6
It’s hard to lead all rookies in rushing and not have a glowing outlook but Kenneth Walker III has been trending downwards for months.
The 2nd round pick out of Michigan State is a speedster who has the ability to dominate with a bellcow role. WIth 5 half-PPR RB1 games and only 2 RB3 or worse finishes in his final 12 games, Walker was a stud once given the reigns to the backfield. With an RAS of 9.26 and elite speed numbers across the board, how can you hate Walker as either a prospect or NFL talent?
Competition is one part of the equation. The Seahawks, rather surprisingly, used their second round pick on UCLA RB Zach Charbonnet. Charbonnet is a big RB with good speed and high college receiving usage. Geno Smith historically only targets RBs a miniscule 4.3 times per game dating back to 2015 and the Seahawks tend to funnel targets to their talented WR duo. That duo has since become a trio after Seattle drafted the best WR in the class, Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Walker’s small piece of the pie just had a big bite taken out of it. In order to rely on Walker you are going to need to rely on some massive rushing performances. There will be a healthy amount of those, but his consistency is sure to take a hit.
Walker’s fantasy success was buoyed by TDs. Walker only ranked 35th in PPOxTD among RBs with at least 75 opportunities, however, he was 2nd in the league in red zone rushing attempts with 48. Charbonnet may threaten in this area at 6’0 but he weighs about as much as the 5’9 Walker and isn’t a lock to steal that role as a rookie. Even a modest split would still be fine for Walker, especially near the goal-line.
Walker’s floor is going to be an issue, more so than last year. There are quite a few RBs with immense talent but projected splits going significantly later than RB17. As you move from standard to full PPR, it is going to get even worse since opportunities through the air are so valuable. D’Andre Swift has never ran for more than 617 yards or 8 TDs in a single season but has finished as the half-PPR 20, 12, and 20 in PPG in his 3 seasons. Walker finished as the RB15 in PPG with 1,050 rushing yards and 9 TDs as a rookie.
For a player that is likely going to be your RB2, there just isn’t enough consistency or upside for me. Miles Sanders may be an older, less explosive player on a worse offense and overall team, but he may get enough targets and rushing attempts to compete with Walker’s production at a cheaper cost. I can round out my team with an elite QB/TE or grab an undervalued WR2/3 in round 5, which is where Walker would need to be taken. If I am building a team that is pounding the position early, he’d be worth an RB3 spot, but he is not in a position to smash his ADP. In dynasty, I’m not buying Walker either. Talent may take precedence over situation but RBs have a smaller window to explode and peak than WRs. Waiting on Walker, KTC’s RB12, doesn’t sound as promising as targeting RB13 Rhamondre Stevenson or RB14 Javonte Williams - two RBs with some short term hindrances but tons of talent as well. Public perception may be dwindling on Walker but he’s still worth shopping for one of those other RBs plus a pick.
Rachaad White - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Fantasy Grade: 42.9/100
RB1 Games: 0
PPG: 6.71
Tampa Bay is getting disrespected. Don't get me wrong, this team isn't competing for anything this season, but they will still be fantasy relevant. Baker Mayfield will be leading an offense composed of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Rachaad White. Paired with an offensive line that PFF's Sam Monson ranks as the 14th best in the league, there will be fantasy points to go around.
Baker Mayfield is not a long-term starter and Kyle Trask probably isn't either. We've seen that Baker Mayfield can support a fantasy relevant offense though and talented players can overcome a lot more than you think. In the RB room, White is likely to see a ton of volume with Leonard Fournette now off the team.
White benefited from a smothering of targets in his rookie season and he made the most of them. In PPR, his points per opportunity including TDs was 0.664 (18th amongst RBs with a minimum of 75 opportunities). He clearly benefits as a receiving back and the Bucs are expected to be in passing situations early and often.
Last season, White drew 58 targets but that was only an 8% target share. Tom Brady set a new record throwing 733 times in one season and the team as a whole threw 751 times. Leonard Fournette had 83 targets of his own, an 11.05% target share.
Baker Mayfield has only averaged 6.1 targets per game to RBs since he was drafted in 2018. For comparison, Tom Brady averaged 8.5 since 2015. Not only will there be a massive target drop but it’s likely that RB target share is going to drop a bit.
The Bucs brought in Chase Edmonds who should operate as the RB2 and take some receiving work of his own. Edmonds has never been able to carve out a real role and has rarely produced even in his limited starting opportunities, but he will still take some production.
Undrafted rookie Sean Tucker is going to be a sneaky threat too, though. Tucker may not have glowing NFL combine results but his production in college was mind blowing compared to his draft position. After redshirting as a freshman in 2020, he exploded in 2021 with nearly 1,500 rushing yards, 14 total TDs, and 20 receptions. His rushing production dipped a bit in 2022 but his receiving usage increased. Per PlayerProfiler, his 15.8% target share was in the 95th percentile. The void Leonard Fournette may have left is slowly filling. Tucker is a 7th round pick but draft capital is not incredibly important for RBs, and this is a talented player who fell in the draft due to medical issues.
It may seem like things are falling apart for White but that’s far from the case. He’s a sizable back with great speed and an RAS of 9.87. Even though the QB change may be bad for his target ceiling, White has a college history of earning targets. He had 43 receptions in 2021 for Arizona State, 2nd on the team.
White will need to absorb a hefty sum of Leonard Fournette’s target share but his efficiency and talent can push him into fantasy relevancy.
The real question white White is “how are you helping my team more than everyone else?” and I feel like that’s not easy to answer at his ADP. Compared to other RBs in his range, his best asset is a strong projected workload, but you’d need to be struggling at RB to take him over some of the WRs going around rounds 7 and 8. Diontae Johnson, Jahan Dotson, and Mike Evans are being drafted around him on Sleeper. You can even gain an advantage at QB or TE by taking Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson, or Pat Freiermuth. White is a guy you take when the upside and other guaranteed roles dry up
In dynasty I would rather have White than James Cook or Dameon Pierce, who are currently being valued higher than him on KTC and came from the same draft class. You have to assume and pray that the state of this offense improves. If Sean Tucker becomes a massive threat, there needs to be something else to push White and his talent upwards.
Tyler Allgeier - Atlanta Falcons
Fantasy Grade: 64.4/100
RB1 Games: 4
PPG: 9.46
While the NFL continues to shift its mentality on RBs, there are still some bellowcows out there. Rookie Bijan Robinson will undoubtedly be one of them. As confusing as the Atlanta Falcons front office is, they would not spend the 8th pick in the draft on an RB that they do not plan to employ as a workhorse. That being said, there’s going to be plenty to gain as the RB2 in this offense and Tyler Allgeier has a lot going for him.
Allgeier doesn’t have amazing draft capital but that didn’t stop the Falcons from utilizing him as a rookie. Not only was Allgeier second in rookie rushing yards last season but he also finished 14th in total yards and 15th in yards per game. He got some good red zone work too, splitting carries with Cordarrelle Patterson in that area. The TD luck didn’t favor him though, as he only scored 3 all season. All in all, Allgeier had a fantastic rookie season.
No player in Allgeier’s ADP range is without red flags and while there is no reason to believe that Allgeier can offer much while Bijan Robinson is healthy, he does stand out as one of the best handcuffs in the league. Cordarrelle Patterson ended the season being out-carried and out-snapped by the rookie Allgeier. It’s rarely an accident to finish the season with 210 carries. Following the team’s Week 14 bye week, Allgeier never received fewer than 17 carries and he averaged 16.33 fantasy points per game. There was also a game mixed in there where he drew 5 targets and caught 4 of them for 43 yards, so he showed off some pass catching potential as well. Allgeier was an RB1 every single game in this span and peaked at RB7. It may just be sheer randomness but this major shift occurred in QB Desmond Ridder’s only four games of the season. Furthermore, Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Allgeier saw the highest percentage of 8 or more defenders in the box and finished with the 7th highest RYOE (Rushing Yards Over Expected) per attempt.
Tyler Allgeier is a very solid handcuff selection in drafts. You should be loading on players like this late rather than TE streamers that you’ll drop in a few days or someone like D’Onta Foreman, who may be the 3rd best RB on the Bears. Elijah Mitchell and Jerrick McKinnon are some of my favorite cuffs in this range and I believe they both offer standalone value and significantly more upside. If they’re gone, Allgeier is a fine consolation prize. I’m willing to trade for Allgeier in dynasty but he will likely be a better buy closer to his rookie contract expiring. This is a player who won’t demand a massive contract and could get a shot to shine on another team in the future.
Isiah Pacheco - Kansas City Chiefs
Fantasy Grade: 47.1/100
RB1 Games: 1
PPG: 7.5
The second to last RB chosen in the draft sure fell into a great situation.
7th round pick Isiah Pacheco led the Chiefs in rushing yards and there wasn’t a close second. His 830 yards were the fourth most by a rookie and 25th among all RBs. With over 35% of Kansas City’s red zone rushing attempts, he stands out as the team’s lead rusher and someone who can eat in one of the best offenses in the league.
His best asset is his elite speed which ranks in the 99th percentile, but his 10-yard split on his 40-yard dash doesn’t quite hit the highest peaks. His college production isn’t very impressive, with a cumulative YPC of 4.3 and a best season of 729 rushing yards.
The competition for rushes in KC is thin. Both Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edward-Helaire are still on the team but only had about 70 carries a piece and the only other competition brought in was undrafted rookie Deneric Prince. Prince’s combine results look oddly similar to Pacheco’s. Both were blazing fast and weighed the same, with Prince coming in at two inches taller. With Pacheco recovering from multiple surgeries in the off-season, someone could begin eating away at his role. All it takes is one shot to keep you out on the field.
Even if Pacheco can stay healthy and fend off any competitors, this offense doesn’t afford many opportunities to RBs. According to Broto’s coaching tendencies, the Chiefs haven’t ran the ball more than 40% of the time since Patrick Mahomes became a full-time starter in 2018. The team is aggressive too, keeping their foot on the gas no matter the situation. They’ve had a steady rise in their passing percentage when leading and have been over 52% since 2017 with a peak of 57.1% last season. Low volume is not the end of the world when you’re as efficient as Pecheco but it does hurt your weekly upside. He only had one RB1 game last season and has only hit 100+ rushing yards once. We can’t judge rookies, especially 7th round rookies, by one season, but even when he does get the type of full workload we expect out of a starting RB he doesn’t produce enough to be a difference-maker in fantasy. His best skill was playing every game last season, but he only received more than 50% of the carries twice.
It’s going to be hard to trust Pacheco in the long-term. On KTC he is being valued above an early 2023 2nd round pick. That’s just not a price I can imagine paying. With a season-high of 19 receptions in college, Pacheco is lacking upside.
In redraft, Sleeper ADP has Pacheco almost going earlier than Javonte Williams. I’d rather take a shot on Williams or even RBs in a clear split backfield like AJ Dillon or Antonio Gibson. At least I’m getting bigger booms on lower volume. Pacheco is going to need to take a major step forward to pay off at his ADP.
Brian Robinson Jr. - Washington Commanders
Fantasy Grade: 49.4/100
RB1 Games: 1
PPG: 9.02
A great story with a commendable rookie season, Brian Robinson Jr. is understandably on fantasy radars. Despite missing the first 4 games of the season after surviving being shot during a robbery and returning to a split backfield, Robinson got fed. Robinson averaged the 6th most rushes per game last season with just over 17 per game. With just 9 half-PPR PPG, though, he was about as effective for your team as Jeff Wilson. Teammate Antonio Gibson had a better floor and only slightly lower booms thanks to his role as the main receiving back in Washington.
Robinson’s 2023 outlook is not very exciting. Hey may continue to get volume but according to Next Gen Stats, Robinson only had 13 rushing yards over expected, or 0.06 per attempt. That ranked 29th amongst qualified RBs.
Shining at Alabama isn’t easy. Robinson was stuck in a loaded depth chart nearly every year in college, making it hard for him to break out. From Josh Jacobs to Najee Harris to Damien Harris, it was impossible to get a full workload behind those guys until 2021. He made every snap count in his final season but it’s easier to dominate with less competition on an elite team at 23 years old. According to PlayerProfiler, his 5.0 YPC in college is only in the 29th percentile. Robinson is quick for his size, though. Despite an RAS of 6.59, his 10-yard split for his 40-yard dash scored a 9.36 out of 10. There’s some solid athleticism there but the ceiling still seems capped.
It doesn’t matter whether Ron Rivera’s comments on Antonio Gibson’s pass-catching abilities are true or not because Robinson just does not catch passes. In Robinson’s 5th season at Alabama, he caught a career-high 35 passes, more than double his 17 combined in his first 4 years. Like with his rushing production, it is hard to put much stock into what he did in his 5th year but I do think he can earn more targets than most think, it just won’t be a game-changing amount.
Robinson may have more immediate rushing volume than some of the players around his ADP but he’s not winning you many weeks. There are plenty of great cuffs with standalone value and some who could even steal the starting role. What does Brian Robinson give you that Damien Harris won’t? Harris is on a better offense, was significantly better in college, and plays the same role in fantasy as an efficient back who gets good red zone usage but doesn’t offer top notch receiving upside. Give me Harris, Elijah Mitchell, Jerick McKinnon, or Tyler Allgeier over Robinson any day of the week. At worse, I’m getting a cheaper Brian Robinson and at best I’m getting a player who can actually help my team. Playing these guessing games to determine when you should start your mid RB4 is not the key to winning in fantasy. In dynasty, Robinson is young and could continue to get volume, but I’d rather rent out a player like James Conner for a year or take a shot on another efficient young back in Khalil Herbert. Robinson is not a waste of a roster spot in dynasty leagues but there’s better depth out there.
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By Themi Michalakis
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.