Week 10 Buy Low and Sell High

With Week 9 of the NFL season in the books, Lead Writer Matt Ward has his eyes on three buy-low targets and three sell-high targets heading into Week 10! Take advantage of your league mates by acquiring star players at their lowest value and dealing away volatile players at their highest values!

BUY LOW

Terry McLaurin (WR) - Washington Commanders

Few players in the NFL consistently produce while remaining under the radar quite like Terry McLuarind does year after year. The Commanders' longtime star wideout has taken the backseat to a couple of much-needed breakout games from Jahan Dotson but remains entrenched atop the pecking order as the top target. McLaurin's usage places him in a tier of unquestioned alphas with a 100.0% route participation rating and 312 total routes run (WR3). Mclaurin is averaging 13.5 PPR PPG with a respectable 21.2% target share through nine weeks but boasts 16.3 expected fantasy points per game with his opportunities. The Commanders 2023 offense has benefited several pass-catchers this season but none more than McLaurin who leads the team in targets (70), receptions (47), and receiving yards (568). Sam Howell has been passing at a frenetic pace this season with offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy entrusting the young signal-caller with an up-tempo offense despite some disparaging results. Howell has attempted 40 or more passes in five of his last six starts. Furthermore, the departure of Chase Young to the 49ers and Montez Sweat to the Bears via trades weakened a middling defense that was already conceding blank points per game. The loss of two key cogs in the defensive front seven could further increase the need for the Commanders to air it out as they trail by large margins early and often. McLaurin will continue to benefit from increased development from Howell and positive fantasy game scripts written by the team’s shallow defense.

D’Andre Swift (RB) - Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles offense has been humming this season but for the last six games, only one cog in the machine has made noise on fantasy radars as A.J. Brown has been dominating defenses. D’Andre Swift has not so quietly been producing solid numbers throughout the season but has created some panic over the last four weeks, falling below the RB1 tier in each of his last four outings. Swift is averaging just 9.6 PPG over his last three games while his fellow teammates continue to produce week-winning numbers, especially with the recent resurgence of DeVonta Smith as a receiving weapon. A potential buying window is undoubtedly looming as the Eagles are set to take on their Week 10 bye. Swift is an easy-buy-low candidate for all of the above-mentioned reasons. His recent slump should not be viewed as an inherent risk in investing. Swift’s opportunity share is rock solid with the Eagles hosting minimal talent on the depth chart behind him. He has recorded 18 opportunities or more in every single game, save for Week 1 where he saw just a 29.0% percent snap share. Positive regression appears imminent for the dual-threat running back. Swift’s talent should far outweigh any concerns surrounding the Eagles pecking order for opportunities. Variance is to be expected with such a high-powered offense housing multiple stud fantasy options. Those discounting Swift and looking for a bye-week trade-off are too quick to discount a star asset on a top-tier offense.

Jerome Ford (RB) - Cleveland Browns

Jerome Ford was expected to “miss several games” according to the Browns training staff after the running back suffered a nasty ankle injury in Week 7. Instead, Ford has dominated the backfield opportunity share in back-to-back contests despite the ongoing presence of secondary and tertiary running mates Kareem Hunt and Pierre Strong. The Browns' offense sputtered for much of the 2023 season, relying heavily on their top-ranked defensive unit and DPOY candidate Myles Garrett to keep them in the hunt for a Wild Card playoff spot. With that said, Ford’s continued increase in usage and responsibility is downright encouraging for the second half of the season as Deshaun Watson is finally healthy enough to play competent and mistake-free football (at least for one week). In the past two games, Ford has seen a combined 49.2% snap share 40.7% rush share, and 14.8% target share. Impressive percentages to boast for a player whose overall health may be lower than all his aforementioned averages. Ford continues to provide a spark as a big-play threat with weekly scoring upside from anywhere on the field. Watson merely needs to regress to average for Ford to begin yielding league-winning production as the top running back within the offense.

SELL HIGH

Aaron Jones (RB) - Green Bay Packers

It has become vastly apparent that Aaron Jones’ best days are behind him as the 28-year-old running back has suited up for just five games this season while averaging 11.46 PPG as the RB35/184th Player Overall. His best outing of the season came in Week 1 against a lowly Bears defense where the veteran running back finished as the RB1 overall. Since then Jones has posted outings as the RB61 (Week 4), RB29 (Week 7), and RB35 (Week 8) amidst injuries and shoddy quarterbacking from Jordan Love. Luckily, Jones propelled himself to an RB8 (14.9 Half-PPR Points) finish in Week 9 against the Rams, opening up a potential sell window for an aging running back stuck on a Packers offense that is averaging just 317.1 Scrimmage Yards (23rd), 199.6 passing yards (22nd), 100.4 rushing yards (22nd) and 20.0 Points (20th) per game. There is a justifiable argument that Jones’ health has hindered his performance and now that he is finally healthy, we should see some positive regression. Conversely, I am not sure how the declining availability of a running back pushing the age cliff of 30 years old with a laundry list of soft tissue injuries should be viewed as a positive narrative whatsoever. Jones’ big-play ability has seemingly dissipated in the twilight of his career, with the longest play of his 2023 season topping out at 11 yards. The longtime Packers running back is averaging just 39.2 rushing yards and 29.4 receiving yards per game but has supplemented his low efficiency with three touchdowns in five outings. The Packers offense is trending in the wrong direction, losing four of their last five games, averaging 18.7 points per game during that stretch. If the offense continues to struggle, Jones’ touchdown opportunities will be few and far between.

Nico Collins (WR) - Houston Texans

C.J. Stroud’s historic showing in Week 9 propelled several Texans into week-winning relevance as the star rookie quarterback tossed for a now NFL-record 470 passing yards and five touchdowns. Noah Brown (6 Receptions/6 Targets/153 Yards/1 Touchdown), Dalton Schultz (10 Receptions/130 Yards/11 Targets/1 Touchdown), Tank Dell (6 Receptions/11 Targets/114 Yards/2 Touchdowns), and Nico Collins (3 Receptions/5 Targets/54 Yards/1 Touchdown) all found the back of the endzone during the Texans comeback win over the Buccaneers. A simple glance at the receiving slashes above tells us that one of these players is currently unlike the others. Nico Collins had a significantly mediocre performance in comparison to his teammates, especially when considering the sheer volume of passing production Stroud commanded in the second half of Week 9. Managers will inevitably be flocking to the trade/waiver wire to acquire pieces of this rapidly rising Texans offense. Collins is the one player in the mix that holds inherently more risk when considering his inflated cost and hype after his quarterback’s record-breaking game. He has fewer than five receptions in four consecutive games and has not received more than six targets since Week 4 against the Steelers. The big-bodied wideout is also averaging a middling 18.9% target share (53 Targets) with a True Target Value of 3.49 (WR47) despite C.J. Stroud boasting a True Throw Value of 0.503 (QB7). If managers come calling for Collins, do not hesitate to sell the regressing receiver for a top-dollar offer.

Raheem Mostert (RB) - Miami Dolphins

Raheem Mostert has been a revelation of running back production for the “late/zero RB” drafters this season. The Dolphins' veteran running back is averaging 17.9 Half-PPR PPG as the RB2 overall and 10th overall scoring player in fantasy. After a stunning first half of the 2023 season, regression appears imminent for the 31-year-old speedster. DeVon Achane is set to make his return following the Dolphins' Week 10 bye and although the duo have worked in tandem with success, Mostert’s legs are beginning to wear as the season goes on, averaging just 58.6 rushing yards per game over the last three contests as the RB34 (Week 7), RB19 (Week 8) and RB13 (Week 9). Mostert’s target totals have also dwindled drastically in the past three weeks, combining for merely four targets through the last three games with zero targets in Week 8 and just one target in Week 9. He has no receptions or receiving yards in two consecutive outings. A positive pass-catching prowess was never in Mostert’s repertoire but removing his opportunities through the air altogether is yet another looming limitation on the big-play threat. It is undeniable that every member of the Dolphins offense should be rostered when healthy but Mostert is on an obvious downward trend with added uncertainty in the pecking order once the team’s star rookie running back returns to action.

Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.

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By Matt Ward